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Jeff Weaver High On Life, Marijuana

After all, it must take some combination of balls, overconfidence, and lack of sobriety to willingly move from a world champion to a perennial floormat, right?

Not so much, really, at least when you consider Weaver's motive - failing to get the big free agent contract he was hoping for after his October heroics, he appears to be settling for a short(er) deal so he can improve his performance and re-enter the market with a more promising recent history. That's where Seattle comes in. What better place for a pitcher to resuscitate his perceived value? In this ballpark, with this defense and this rotation, he's virtually guaranteed to come out looking rosy to other GM's with a pitching need. Nothing ace-like, mind you, but he's not going to be posting any more 5.76 ERA's any time soon. With the big money never materializing, this is a pretty good fallback career move for Weaver to make.

So, yeah, feel free to ignore the countless "I wanted to be in Seattle all along, this is a team that can compete" quotes you're going to be reading in the coming days/weeks; Weaver's just using the Mariners to help himself, and if they happen to play well while he's around, great. There's zero sense of loyalty here. And while that may seem like a shot, I'm fine with it - Weaver needs the Mariners and the Mariners need Weaver, so as long as he contributes for the duration of his contract, I couldn't care less what he plans to do later. It's not like he's a critical building block for the future. He's just a durable fifth starter who can help the club for a year or two before moving on and getting replaced by someone else of similar ability.

Dave's already done the number-crunching, so I'll direct you there for most of the math. In short, what it comes down to is that Weaver's a win or two better than Cha Baek over the course of a full year, and as has been the case for the past several seasons, a win or two in this division is pretty important. On top of that, getting from 80 wins to 90 wins is the most difficult upgrade for any team to make, and the Mariners are about to accomplish a fraction of that without really having to sacrifice anything. They're still not the best team in the AL West, but they need fewer things to bounce their way to look like they are now than they did a day ago. If that makes any sense.

It's bad news for Cha Baek, Jorge Campillo, Jake Woods, and the rest of the fifth-starter hopefuls, but it's good news for us, since Weaver provides the double bonus of making the Mariners better while also being able to keep the clubhouse more 'relaxed' during the tough times in the season. And the easy times. And all the times in between. He knows a guy. Expect at least a ten-fold increase in Ibanezesque "flu-like symptoms." And hey, it'll be hard for Willie Ballgame to pick up another 250 at bats if he's constantly ripped off his ass. The upside is limitless.

Note that I have no idea what his contract looks like. Ideally it's one year with a vesting option, so the only way Weaver returns for an expensive 2008 is if he does well in 2007. If it's two years guaranteed, then this doesn't give me as many happy vibes. Stay tuned.

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Welcome back, Jeff (Yea, I'm late)
I don't care how good or bad the starting rotation turns out to be but at the absolute least it is going to be interesting

Felix, Washburn, Batista, Ramirez, Weaver

After seemingly many years we finally hit the reset button to generate a random set of pitchers.

Best of all there is no real attachment to the 4 and 5 guys so the M's probably won't wait until the season is over to replace them internally.

by ThundaPC on Jan 26, 2007 10:04 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Wow
This team can compete on any given night

by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2007 11:14 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

You know what?
Every guy we picked up is not that great.  But this rotation is better than last year's.
  1.  Moyer, Felix, Meche, Pineiro, Washburn
  2.  Batista, Washburn, Felix, HoRam, Weaver
I'd take the 2007 rotation over the 2006 rotation.  Granted, Bavasi crippled our budget to do it, but the unease I felt before Gil and Joel starts (and seriously, 90% of the time those were 2 of the crappiest starters in baseball)... will now give way to the low-expectation eh of HoRam, Washburn, Weaver and Batista starts.  And that's a significant upgrade.

by Gomez on Jan 26, 2007 11:18 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Are lineup is better also (somewhat)
So basically tell the starter not to give up more than 4 runs and we got a chance

by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2007 11:22 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

4 runs to win a game?
I know I heard that once (or a million times) before...

by jtopps on Jan 26, 2007 11:32 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Generally agree
and especialyl with Feierabend, Woods, Baek, Lehr, et al behind the front five, hopefully the team is savvy enough to avoid any 6+ ERAs, but I am really afraid of what line HoRam will put up and since the team will have to justify the trade, I fear that he will get the Pineiro treatment even if he does blow chunks.

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 11:39 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We've turned our rotation upside down
by which I mean, we've gone from mostly guys whose last name starts with M to mostly guys whose last name starts with W.
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Jan 26, 2007 12:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

That's funny
Leave it to Deanna to have a unique (and interesting) perspective...

I think the big difference is that last year, whenever Meche or Pineiro pitched you just felt in your gut that it was going to be a disaster (even though, like good drug dealers, occassionally they had the "good stuff" that kept you coming back). With Woods and Baek, it was like going to watch a train wreck because maybe a head would come rolling by and that would be cool.

This year, I think the fans will enter every game feeling like there is a 90% chance of a win (when Felix pitches) or a 50:50 chance for everyone else. And that adds a sense of excitement to each game.

by kva15 on Jan 26, 2007 12:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

hehe
rolling heads are pretty cool.
"You guys should be in every major city. This is some heavy shit. This is, like, Lone Ranger heavy, man."

by AZSEAfan on Jan 26, 2007 1:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was totally serious :)
That's why Jeff Harris couldn't stay on our roster.  They turned his H upside down, it still looked like an H, they said they already had an H with that Felix kid around, so he'd have to go.
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Jan 27, 2007 12:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Just for fun
I used Baseball Reference's neutralize stats feature   to see how 2006 Weaver would have fared as one of the 2000 Colorado Rockies. The result? 8.54 ERA, 40 home runs.

by Slozbury Stouvre on Jan 26, 2007 2:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

eric milton
  1. 50HR allowed
  2. 46HR allowed, 9.69 ERA

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 2:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, this is the COOLEST thing of all time.
Barry Bonds (neutralized to 2000 Colorado):
  1. .396/.588/1.043 (OPS of 1.631), 98 HR
  2. .454/.663/.981 (OPS of 1.644), 65 HR (280 BB)
  3. .399/.590/.872 (OPS of 1.462), 58 HR
  4. .417/.662/.939 (OPS of 1.601), 57 HR (292 BB)
Career: .360/.512/.733 (OPS of 1.245), 993 HR, 3001 RBI, 791 2B, 697 SB, 9.92 RC/27

Ho-ly SHIT.

My heart will go on

by Phildopip on Jan 26, 2007 4:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Larry Stone says
It's a one year $8.0 million deal with $1.4 million in incentives. Doesn't sound like there is an option in the contract for 2008.

by Trent on Jan 26, 2007 2:58 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Wow.
That's a lot of tacos.
Iceberg, right ahead!

by PositivePaul on Jan 26, 2007 3:01 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm,
I like that a lot better than the 2 year 16m deal that some NY paper was reporting (hat tip: el sid).

It's still somewhat surprising that a guy could be on a one year deal, get cut because he couldn't stop sucking, and then sign another one year deal for MORE money.  

by marc w on Jan 26, 2007 3:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

well, way less money after inflation
but yeah, I love the no 2nd guaranteed year part.

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 4:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't get it.
How is this good for the Mariners?  If this projects to a couple more wins than Baek that equates to $4 million/win.  I am not an expert on salaries or how to run a major league franchise, but it seems to me like this is just a waste of money.  This is a private enterprise not a government agency.  That $8 million would be around to spend next year if it isn't wasted now.

I'm not hip to the business side of baseball, so maybe I'm just missing something.

by JoshC on Jan 26, 2007 4:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who cares if it's a waste of money?
It's completely off the books at the end of the season, so it's pretty much irrelevant. It's not like the money carries over to next season, so you might as well spend it.
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Jan 26, 2007 5:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I have no idea where the payroll is right now.
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Jan 26, 2007 5:21 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sort of.
But unloading Broussard will take them back to expected level.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2007 7:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Could this maybe mean
Sexson is getting traded instead?  Probably not but maybe...

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2007 11:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Why doesn't the money carry over?
If you don't spend it does the payroll fairy come take it away?

If you've got $100 million in your budget and you only spend $90 million don't you have $10 million in reserve to increase your budeget for the next season?

by JoshC on Jan 26, 2007 6:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The payroll fairy doesn't take it away
The FO does. They pretty much pocket whatever is left. If you've got $100 Million one season and only spend $90, then you have $100 million next season.

I don't know why it's like that, and it's probably kind of stupid, but thats how it works unfortunatly.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Jan 26, 2007 6:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Because no rational business operates that
way and the Ms are a very rational business.

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 7:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Man, if I was feeling less lazy
Howard Lincoln would make a great fairy

by Graham on Jan 27, 2007 3:28 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Perhaps better than irrelevant...
Not only does a 1 year deal just use up money that would otherwise be pocketed, it makes it ever so slightly more likely to maintain an increased payroll next year.  Once it is set this year at, say, $100 mil, it is hard to justify to the fans cutting it back to the low 90s, especially if we improve and look like we're just a few pieces away from contending in '08,

by david h on Jan 27, 2007 12:01 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It wouldn't be available next year.
The Mariners famously don't let money carry over between seasons.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2007 7:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Or spend it otherwise
I would love to see the M's throw all that money into a fund for international free agents or for vastly exceeding slot recommendations in the draft.  

Trade Sexson mis-season = prospect spending spree.  

But that would make too much sense.  

by Jerry on Jan 27, 2007 11:26 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, unless Sexson
performs at 2005 level and we're competing for 1st place.

by Mariner John on Jan 27, 2007 1:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Man that's a lot of money.
But as long as it's only 1 year, I'm ok with it.

by Happybelly on Jan 26, 2007 4:29 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

It's late in the offseason,
the major moves have already been made -- some unfortunately so. The team's salary for next year is pretty much set. As long as Weaver only gets a one year deal, who really cares how much we pay him?  It's not like this happened in November, thereby keeping us from going after Dice-K. If it pays off, he's a nice back of the rotation stop-gap until next year. If it doesn't work, we send him to the land of wind and ghosts (also known as DFA Land) like so many Carl Everetts veterans of yore.

by Slozbury Stouvre on Jan 26, 2007 5:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

exactly
there is no one out there the M's ought to be spending their money on. Therefore, whomever they spend it on now is OK, as long there is a net improvement.

Weaver makes us, at the very least, a little bit better. And if the post season was any indication, there are still some quality innings left in him, so maybe the improvement will be significant (let's face it, Baek is not even replacement level).

Weaver is really like a once pretty girl, who started to show age and was dumped by the Angels for her younger, still pretty sister. But she stll has some good stuff, and just needs a rebound hook-up to regain her mojo so she can get back into the game.

And as for the mariners, well, Kundera writes that beautiful women don't date handsome men, they date men who date beautiful women. It's been so long since the mariners have dated a beautiful woman (who, in this overlong and maybe implausible analogy, represents a good starter) that they don't even look this way anymore except to 'just talk' (schmidt). They need to get someone, anyone, to establish themselves on the market.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2007 6:46 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So we're just the rebound guy?
But I thought you loved me!!

:runs away crying:

Losers always whine about their best. Winners go home and fuck the prom queen.

by Goose on Jan 27, 2007 4:22 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Still Time To Get Into Wonderland!
If Weaver checks in this weekend, he can still get through rehab before pitchers and catchers report!

Lock up the liquor cabinet and the guns, Seattle!

by List God on Jan 27, 2007 2:36 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

a win or two
"as has been the case for the past several seasons, a win or two in this division is pretty important."

while this is technically true, a win or two hasn't really been that important for the mariners over the past few seasons, and it probably won't be again in 2007, unless it's really that important to finish a game or two closer to not being in last place.

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 10:30 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Heh
Look at the rosters and tell me any one team in this division is substantially better than any other.

Honestly, if the M's were still in possession of Snelling and Soriano, we'd be the best team in the AL West. Every squad in this divsion is flawed, and every team has a chance to get hot and taker the division, ours as much as yours.

by Graham on Jan 29, 2007 10:53 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't know what your point is
We're actually probably a better team than the A's right now, considering your offense would be bad in AAA.

by Graham on Jan 29, 2007 11:29 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

you're right of course
just like the m's were better than the a's last year (just ask dave cameron).
we'll just have to wait and see for now, and discuss this again in november.

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 11:52 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see what bad luck and Mike Hargrove
Have to do with Dave Cameron.

Quite frankly, the fact that the vast majority of A's fans pupport to be Billy Beane's disciples despite not knowing good analysis if it hit them in the face makes them almost as bad as Angels fans.

by Graham on Jan 29, 2007 11:57 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

hargrove
will be a part of the m's team that you consider a "better team" than the a's once again this year, so get used to it.

or you can blame luck and hargrove once again a year from now.

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 12:26 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and hargrove being the m's manager
wasn't exactly some unexpected midseason move that dave cameron couldn't have possibly predicted when he said the m's were better than the a's.  
same goes for the a's head to head dominance of the m's.

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 12:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Who cares about 2004-2006?
The 2007 Mariners are a completely different team, one that isn't much worse than anybody else in the division.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 1:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

you could be right
and if the m's actually are within a couple games of first place this year, you will be right.  we'll see.

but what are you basing that on?  PECOTA?  ZiPS?  your gut feeling?

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 2:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Everyone's respective rosters.
And my current semi-analytical feeling is that if anyone's going to run away with this thing, it's Anaheim.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 2:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

i totally agree with that second sentence
but i still think there's a pretty big gap between the mariners and the top of the division, whoever that may be.

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 2:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't see it.
But then, I could easily be blinded by the completely new rotation. If Horacio blows up, all bets are off.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 2:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

blows up, as in
spontaneously combusts like a spinal tap drummer.

new doesn't necessarily mean good, or even average.  that's never more true than when new includes washburn, batista, ramirez, and weaver.

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 2:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Compared to last year's rotation
the '07 edition is considerably better. Moving from crummy to average is just as valuable as moving from average to good, after all.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 2:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

pitching
i think the m's offense is pretty comparable to the a's and angels: nothing amazing, but decent with a bunch of question marks.

but the pitching looks pretty mediocre, and not very deep.  aside from felix and putz, who could possibly have an outstanding year?

if anyone in the rotation gets injured or sucks, who are the 6 and 7 guys?  how good are they?
are they currently in the bullpen?  if so, who will replace them?

by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 3:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

actually I think our depth is way better
than it has been. Before weaver we were going to have Baek and Woods battle it out for the 5 spot. But now we have both those guys available in case of injury. There not that good but we could have worse.

by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 29, 2007 3:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And for some reason
we have a surplus of relievers

by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 29, 2007 3:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

And furthermore
This doesn't EVEN consider the fact that Felix's 1st half performance in 2006 was the result of him being an out-of-shape Teen that tried to coast on talent alone.

In 2007, Felix is much wiser, and now in much better shape.  We ditched Joel Pineiro (which hand-delivered 5 wins to Oakland, btw), and Gil Meche (inconsistence is as inconsistence does).

Our rotation is better, our lineup is better, Ichiro's playing CF, we have a whole season of J.J. Putz closing games ahead, etc.  Heck, even last year's team came within striking distance of 1st by the ASB before they collapsed.

Is this a World Series calibur team?  No.  Could this type of team fall apart in the future or even now?  Maybe.  No matter how you look at it this team is in better shape than some people make it out to be.

by ThundaPC on Jan 29, 2007 3:45 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Here Here
but will we be better in the future?

by ZeZetheX on Jan 29, 2007 9:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I don't think we're much worse
we lost Raffy, Fruto, and Snelling.

Raffy we weren't planning on hanging onto much longer anyways. Fruto is replaceable. Really the only loss is Snelling, and who knows.

by Matthew on Jan 29, 2007 10:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The upside of having all these
mediocre SP veterens under contract is that it will give our farm system a couple years to develop some depth at SP.  That'll be nice.  Our OF is going to be pretty packed if they keep Ichiro.  Snelling was going to be fighting for playing time over the next couple years (I still miss him).

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 29, 2007 10:38 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Speaking of Snelling
I saw his jersey at the M's team store for 25% off. Unfortuantely, it was still way too much at $150. They really think a lot of him to group him with the Wirtala and Garcia jerseys, though.

by Mariner John on Jan 29, 2007 11:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Weren't you listening to Chuck?
I mean, come on -- he said that those jerseys would be collector's items one day soon.  At least that was the explanation he gave Bretticus' mom when she asked for a refund on the cost of that jersey.
Iceberg, right ahead!

by PositivePaul on Jan 30, 2007 9:02 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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