Jeff Weaver High On Life, Marijuana
After all, it must take some combination of balls, overconfidence, and lack of sobriety to willingly move from a world champion to a perennial floormat, right?
Not so much, really, at least when you consider Weaver's motive - failing to get the big free agent contract he was hoping for after his October heroics, he appears to be settling for a short(er) deal so he can improve his performance and re-enter the market with a more promising recent history. That's where Seattle comes in. What better place for a pitcher to resuscitate his perceived value? In this ballpark, with this defense and this rotation, he's virtually guaranteed to come out looking rosy to other GM's with a pitching need. Nothing ace-like, mind you, but he's not going to be posting any more 5.76 ERA's any time soon. With the big money never materializing, this is a pretty good fallback career move for Weaver to make.
So, yeah, feel free to ignore the countless "I wanted to be in Seattle all along, this is a team that can compete" quotes you're going to be reading in the coming days/weeks; Weaver's just using the Mariners to help himself, and if they happen to play well while he's around, great. There's zero sense of loyalty here. And while that may seem like a shot, I'm fine with it - Weaver needs the Mariners and the Mariners need Weaver, so as long as he contributes for the duration of his contract, I couldn't care less what he plans to do later. It's not like he's a critical building block for the future. He's just a durable fifth starter who can help the club for a year or two before moving on and getting replaced by someone else of similar ability.
Dave's already done the number-crunching, so I'll direct you there for most of the math. In short, what it comes down to is that Weaver's a win or two better than Cha Baek over the course of a full year, and as has been the case for the past several seasons, a win or two in this division is pretty important. On top of that, getting from 80 wins to 90 wins is the most difficult upgrade for any team to make, and the Mariners are about to accomplish a fraction of that without really having to sacrifice anything. They're still not the best team in the AL West, but they need fewer things to bounce their way to look like they are now than they did a day ago. If that makes any sense.
It's bad news for Cha Baek, Jorge Campillo, Jake Woods, and the rest of the fifth-starter hopefuls, but it's good news for us, since Weaver provides the double bonus of making the Mariners better while also being able to keep the clubhouse more 'relaxed' during the tough times in the season. And the easy times. And all the times in between. He knows a guy. Expect at least a ten-fold increase in Ibanezesque "flu-like symptoms." And hey, it'll be hard for Willie Ballgame to pick up another 250 at bats if he's constantly ripped off his ass. The upside is limitless.
Note that I have no idea what his contract looks like. Ideally it's one year with a vesting option, so the only way Weaver returns for an expensive 2008 is if he does well in 2007. If it's two years guaranteed, then this doesn't give me as many happy vibes. Stay tuned.
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66 comments
Comments
Welcome back, Jeff (Yea, I'm late)
Felix, Washburn, Batista, Ramirez, Weaver
After seemingly many years we finally hit the reset button to generate a random set of pitchers.
Best of all there is no real attachment to the 4 and 5 guys so the M's probably won't wait until the season is over to replace them internally.
by ThundaPC on Jan 26, 2007 10:04 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wow
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2007 11:14 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
You know what?
- Moyer, Felix, Meche, Pineiro, Washburn
- Batista, Washburn, Felix, HoRam, Weaver
by Gomez on Jan 26, 2007 11:18 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Are lineup is better also (somewhat)
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 26, 2007 11:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
4 runs to win a game?
by jtopps on Jan 26, 2007 11:32 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Generally agree
by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 11:39 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
We've turned our rotation upside down
by Deanna on Jan 26, 2007 12:12 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
That's funny
I think the big difference is that last year, whenever Meche or Pineiro pitched you just felt in your gut that it was going to be a disaster (even though, like good drug dealers, occassionally they had the "good stuff" that kept you coming back). With Woods and Baek, it was like going to watch a train wreck because maybe a head would come rolling by and that would be cool.
This year, I think the fans will enter every game feeling like there is a 90% chance of a win (when Felix pitches) or a 50:50 chance for everyone else. And that adds a sense of excitement to each game.
by kva15 on Jan 26, 2007 12:33 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I was totally serious :)
by Deanna on Jan 27, 2007 12:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Just for fun
by Slozbury Stouvre on Jan 26, 2007 2:25 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
eric milton
- 50HR allowed
- 46HR allowed, 9.69 ERA
by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 2:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Okay, this is the COOLEST thing of all time.
- .396/.588/1.043 (OPS of 1.631), 98 HR
- .454/.663/.981 (OPS of 1.644), 65 HR (280 BB)
- .399/.590/.872 (OPS of 1.462), 58 HR
- .417/.662/.939 (OPS of 1.601), 57 HR (292 BB)
Ho-ly SHIT.
by Phildopip on Jan 26, 2007 4:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Larry Stone says
by Trent on Jan 26, 2007 2:58 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
Wow.
by PositivePaul on Jan 26, 2007 3:01 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm,
It's still somewhat surprising that a guy could be on a one year deal, get cut because he couldn't stop sucking, and then sign another one year deal for MORE money.
by marc w on Jan 26, 2007 3:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
well, way less money after inflation
by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 4:08 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get it.
I'm not hip to the business side of baseball, so maybe I'm just missing something.
by JoshC on Jan 26, 2007 4:52 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who cares if it's a waste of money?
by Goose on Jan 26, 2007 5:05 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Did they exceed their payroll for Weaver?
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2007 5:20 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I have no idea where the payroll is right now.
by Goose on Jan 26, 2007 5:21 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Sort of.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2007 7:41 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Could this maybe mean
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 26, 2007 11:02 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Why doesn't the money carry over?
If you've got $100 million in your budget and you only spend $90 million don't you have $10 million in reserve to increase your budeget for the next season?
by JoshC on Jan 26, 2007 6:06 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The payroll fairy doesn't take it away
I don't know why it's like that, and it's probably kind of stupid, but thats how it works unfortunatly.
by Goose on Jan 26, 2007 6:58 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Because no rational business operates that
by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 7:22 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Man, if I was feeling less lazy
by Graham on Jan 27, 2007 3:28 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Perhaps better than irrelevant...
by david h on Jan 27, 2007 12:01 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
It wouldn't be available next year.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2007 7:42 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Or spend it otherwise
Trade Sexson mis-season = prospect spending spree.
But that would make too much sense.
by Jerry on Jan 27, 2007 11:26 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, unless Sexson
by Mariner John on Jan 27, 2007 1:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Man that's a lot of money.
by Happybelly on Jan 26, 2007 4:29 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
It's late in the offseason,
by Slozbury Stouvre on Jan 26, 2007 5:17 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
exactly
Weaver makes us, at the very least, a little bit better. And if the post season was any indication, there are still some quality innings left in him, so maybe the improvement will be significant (let's face it, Baek is not even replacement level).
Weaver is really like a once pretty girl, who started to show age and was dumped by the Angels for her younger, still pretty sister. But she stll has some good stuff, and just needs a rebound hook-up to regain her mojo so she can get back into the game.
And as for the mariners, well, Kundera writes that beautiful women don't date handsome men, they date men who date beautiful women. It's been so long since the mariners have dated a beautiful woman (who, in this overlong and maybe implausible analogy, represents a good starter) that they don't even look this way anymore except to 'just talk' (schmidt). They need to get someone, anyone, to establish themselves on the market.
by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2007 6:46 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
So we're just the rebound guy?
:runs away crying:
by Goose on Jan 27, 2007 4:22 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Still Time To Get Into Wonderland!
Lock up the liquor cabinet and the guns, Seattle!
by List God on Jan 27, 2007 2:36 PM PST reply actions 0 recs
a win or two
while this is technically true, a win or two hasn't really been that important for the mariners over the past few seasons, and it probably won't be again in 2007, unless it's really that important to finish a game or two closer to not being in last place.
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 10:30 AM PST reply actions 0 recs
Heh
Honestly, if the M's were still in possession of Snelling and Soriano, we'd be the best team in the AL West. Every squad in this divsion is flawed, and every team has a chance to get hot and taker the division, ours as much as yours.
by Graham on Jan 29, 2007 10:53 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
just imagine how good they'd be
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what your point is
by Graham on Jan 29, 2007 11:29 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you're right of course
we'll just have to wait and see for now, and discuss this again in november.
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 11:52 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see what bad luck and Mike Hargrove
Quite frankly, the fact that the vast majority of A's fans pupport to be Billy Beane's disciples despite not knowing good analysis if it hit them in the face makes them almost as bad as Angels fans.
by Graham on Jan 29, 2007 11:57 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs
and hargrove being the m's manager
same goes for the a's head to head dominance of the m's.
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 12:32 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Who cares about 2004-2006?
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
you could be right
but what are you basing that on? PECOTA? ZiPS? your gut feeling?
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 2:18 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Everyone's respective rosters.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 2:27 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
i totally agree with that second sentence
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 2:34 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't see it.
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 2:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
blows up, as in
new doesn't necessarily mean good, or even average. that's never more true than when new includes washburn, batista, ramirez, and weaver.
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 2:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Compared to last year's rotation
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 29, 2007 2:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
pitching
but the pitching looks pretty mediocre, and not very deep. aside from felix and putz, who could possibly have an outstanding year?
if anyone in the rotation gets injured or sucks, who are the 6 and 7 guys? how good are they?
are they currently in the bullpen? if so, who will replace them?
by xbhaskarx on Jan 29, 2007 3:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
actually I think our depth is way better
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 29, 2007 3:43 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And for some reason
by Scruffy Lefty on Jan 29, 2007 3:44 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
And furthermore
In 2007, Felix is much wiser, and now in much better shape. We ditched Joel Pineiro (which hand-delivered 5 wins to Oakland, btw), and Gil Meche (inconsistence is as inconsistence does).
Our rotation is better, our lineup is better, Ichiro's playing CF, we have a whole season of J.J. Putz closing games ahead, etc. Heck, even last year's team came within striking distance of 1st by the ASB before they collapsed.
Is this a World Series calibur team? No. Could this type of team fall apart in the future or even now? Maybe. No matter how you look at it this team is in better shape than some people make it out to be.
by ThundaPC on Jan 29, 2007 3:45 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Here Here
by ZeZetheX on Jan 29, 2007 9:19 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think we're much worse
Raffy we weren't planning on hanging onto much longer anyways. Fruto is replaceable. Really the only loss is Snelling, and who knows.
by Matthew on Jan 29, 2007 10:28 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
The upside of having all these
by Edgar for Pres on Jan 29, 2007 10:38 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of Snelling
by Mariner John on Jan 29, 2007 11:35 PM PST up reply actions 0 recs
Weren't you listening to Chuck?
by PositivePaul on Jan 30, 2007 9:02 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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