Jeff Weaver, Mariners in serious talks?

by Trent on Jan 25, 2007 3:18 PM PST

At least Ken Rosenthal says so. Also adds a deal could be done tonight. I've got mixed feelings on this. Part of me says a rubber armed Weaver on a one or two year deal could be a pretty nice signing. The other part of me saw what he did in LA last year. Please Bavasi, don't give him an albatross.

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Really?

That came from out of nowhere.

by anotherjeff on Jan 25, 2007 3:23 PM PST reply actions

Meh...

I don't want him sucking, but on the other hand, I can make references to the "Wheel of Fish" segment in UHF whenever he can't get an out, and that may help ease the pain of a long season. Although, it was a lot more fun when he was pitching against us.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett

by JY on Jan 25, 2007 3:24 PM PST reply actions

UHF

doesn't get referenced nearly enough.

you get nothing. absolutely nothing. You so stupid!

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 25, 2007 6:34 PM PST up reply actions

Come on,

it's a twinkee-weiner sandwich!

by jimmimoose1 on Jan 25, 2007 10:07 PM PST up reply actions

I figured he meant that

the contestant lady's name is Weaver. "Okay Weaver, you can hold on to that red snapper, or take whatever's in the box... crap, a home run to Raul Ibanez! YOU SO STUPID!"

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Jan 26, 2007 10:25 AM PST up reply actions

Bingo

I've already had visions of midseason trade scenarios that involve the choice between a Red Snapper or "What's in the box?"

That and I can preface all of his starts with "Are you ready, Weaver?", said in the the most exaggerated faux Japanese accent I can muster.

"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." -- Samuel Beckett

by JY on Jan 26, 2007 3:28 PM PST up reply actions

AH YUU RED-EE, WEEBAAAAAA?

Detect-O-Vision

Favor the Bold

by IcebreakerX on Jan 27, 2007 5:16 AM PST up reply actions

He's not that bad a pitcher

As long as it's a cheap deal it's fine. I'm not sure who I'd project to do better out of the Weaver brothers next year, to be perfectly honest...

by Graham MacAree on Jan 25, 2007 3:24 PM PST reply actions

Uhh....

I'm scared.

I mean, I've been an advocate of Weaver, sure, but I just don't quite trust Bill.

Yikes.

Iceberg, right ahead!

by PositivePaul on Jan 25, 2007 3:25 PM PST reply actions

He'd be better than Baek

but not much more than say, 1 yr, 2 million with an option for next year.

by Corco on Jan 25, 2007 3:25 PM PST reply actions

I'm fine with Weaver

I liked him last year, but I don't think a multi-year deal is a good idea. One to two years is perfect. Could do some great things in Safeco.

by Trent on Jan 25, 2007 3:27 PM PST reply actions

I'm with Trent.

On a 1-2 year deal, I'm totally cool, even if the money's a bit higher than I'd like.

A lot has happened, though, between this time last year (when I was all over giving Weaver a 4-year deal) and this year.

There's a decent chance that he could leap forward and become the M's second-best pitcher behind Felix. But, there's an equal or better chance that he could turn out to be more of a Mechian head case...

Iceberg, right ahead!

by PositivePaul on Jan 25, 2007 3:37 PM PST up reply actions

OK, but...

Meche WAS our second best pitcher behind Felix last year.

by johnbai on Jan 25, 2007 3:56 PM PST up reply actions

Hmm...

According to VORP,
-- Jamie Moyer says "No Soup for You!"
-- Jarrod Washburn says "Not yours!"

Heck, even Jake F. Woods says "Nada!!!"

Iceberg, right ahead!

by PositivePaul on Jan 25, 2007 4:16 PM PST up reply actions

Ehh.

VORP is a pretty useless way to evaluate pitchers.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 25, 2007 4:16 PM PST up reply actions

Get him

He adds depth, and has shown flashes of being what everyone thought he was years ago.

I know that sounds a bit like Gil Meche, but if it's not too much money, or too many years, I don't mind.

"Ooh! Ooh! I have one of those things, like a headache with pictures!"

by Thingray on Jan 25, 2007 3:37 PM PST reply actions

I can only see one reason at all to sign him

and that's for the hopeful Weaver-Weaver showdowns when he has to pitch against his little brother.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Jan 25, 2007 3:40 PM PST reply actions

It would be awesome

if the two of them got into a pitcher's duel that went into the 7th, and then Jeff would give Jered a merciful wedgie, just like when they were kids, and Jered would get all embarassed and say damn jeff, stop it, but it's too late - there are two aboard and one out, and they walk Ibanez to get to sexson, and well, we all know what happens then.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 25, 2007 6:39 PM PST up reply actions

GIDP?

by Tom2000 on Jan 26, 2007 12:05 AM PST up reply actions

Jered really should IBB

Every lefty he sees.

by Graham MacAree on Jan 26, 2007 12:17 AM PST up reply actions

This would not end well

The only reason Weaver leaves St. Louis is because he either gets 3 years from somebody or bucco-bucks. FWIW, Boras has said he's confident in getting Weaver a Suppan-level contract. Unless you're getting both Weavers, and Earl Weaver, I want zero part of anything to do with this guy.

by Matthew on Jan 25, 2007 3:47 PM PST reply actions

well I appear to be wrong on the magnitude

but still, 2 years? Sure glad we've locked up our rotation for 2008. Sure pissed that it sucks.

by Matthew on Jan 26, 2007 10:33 AM PST up reply actions

Bavasi said

he wanted a 200+ inning, .500 5th starter type.

But my concern is money, since Boras is not simply going to let Weaver sign for nothing and only one year.

How much money do we have left? I doubt the Zito fund could be used in this matter.

Go Fo Broke!

by eknpdx on Jan 25, 2007 3:53 PM PST reply actions

Boras has screwed up before

Note Kevin Millwood's 2005 contract. Hopefully something similar could happen here.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Jan 25, 2007 4:00 PM PST up reply actions

Exactly

That's why I wanted to sign him last year; I thought he'd take a one year deal to improve his stock.
As it turns out, he sucked even worse last year - he's simply got no leverage for a 3-year $30m deal.

Although I've been horribly wrong about the market for back-end starters this year....

Still, I think this has a chance to be a decent value signing. If Boras demands 2-3years and tons of money, we just say no.

by marc w on Jan 26, 2007 8:33 AM PST up reply actions

These are our choices?

The Mariners have also been talking with free agent left-hander Mark Redman, but prefer Weaver. Redman, 33, is also drawing interest from the Royals.

Whatever. I'm fine with a one-year deal, since it's basically money that wouldn't get spent otherwise.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 25, 2007 4:05 PM PST reply actions

Mark Redman was an All-Star!

We should get him!

by Corco on Jan 25, 2007 4:27 PM PST up reply actions

Well...

He was an all-star

by Mariner John on Jan 25, 2007 4:33 PM PST up reply actions

Might as well call it now.

Jeff Weaver = 3 years for $15 million. Broussard and Reed unloaded for whatever the M's can get.

by ThundaPC on Jan 25, 2007 5:34 PM PST reply actions

If that happens,

I think the odds of Reed finally having his breakout season are somewhere in the area of 90-95%.

by Slozbury Stouvre on Jan 25, 2007 5:45 PM PST up reply actions

Agreed

by Trent on Jan 25, 2007 6:00 PM PST up reply actions

How are Reed/Broussard related?

by Mariner John on Jan 25, 2007 6:12 PM PST up reply actions

If it's a cheap 1 year deal, fine.

Otherwise, steer clear of the guy. Lord knows we had alot of fun at the Angels expense with him, I don't want it being reversed.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Jan 25, 2007 6:03 PM PST reply actions

Its not going to be cheap or a 1 yr deal.

by Edgar for Pres on Jan 25, 2007 6:40 PM PST up reply actions

I know

The Cards offered him a 2 year deal, and if he's turning down the World Champions to pitch for us, I shudder to think by how much we bested the Cards offer.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Jan 25, 2007 6:56 PM PST up reply actions

1-Year

I saw a report somewhere today that he was looking for a one-year deal so that he could boost his value and go back into the FA market next year.

by Steve Nelson on Jan 25, 2007 8:36 PM PST up reply actions

They were saying on the radio that he has the

choice between a 1 year or 2 year contract. And apparently he's leaning towards a 1 year, so that if he pitches well, he can go for the multi year in the offseason.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Jan 25, 2007 8:51 PM PST up reply actions

If it's anything more than a 1 year deal...

I'm going to be pissed, unless it's extremely cheap.

by Happybelly on Jan 25, 2007 8:27 PM PST reply actions

My guess

3 years with mutual option for 4th
9.5 , 11.5, 13

so 3/34

by Justise on Jan 25, 2007 10:13 PM PST reply actions

Not gonna be that long

They already said it's either one or two years.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Jan 25, 2007 10:16 PM PST up reply actions

Seriously,

Do people actually read the story itself, or just read the headlines and fill in their own commentary?

It will likely be a one-year deal, people. The M's offered a choice of one or two years. There's nothing about a third year...

by tait644 on Jan 25, 2007 11:37 PM PST up reply actions

HarHar

I'm guessing he's joking. That's Gil Meche money right there, folks!

by DCMariner on Jan 25, 2007 11:40 PM PST up reply actions

If you believe Jered

This thing is a done deal.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2007 5:06 AM PST reply actions

This is exciting.

I don't really expect Weaver to be as good as he once was. He would be just another fifth starter in a rotation of fifth starters. Yet, somehow, I feel that Weaver has a lot more potential to do well than Ramirez, Baek, or Batista.

Maybe its because every picture I've seen of him he looks like he's spent the night in a ditch drinking hooch with the guys that get kicked out from the Blue Moon, but it seems like if you just throw some cold water on his face and give him some coffee and a meal that doesn't involve pills and rye, he'd do OK.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2007 7:15 AM PST reply actions

From the St. Louis Post-Dipatch

From the St. Louis Post-Dispatch:

Terms of Weaver's pending deal remain unknown but are thought to include significantly more guaranteed money than the Cardinals' standing two-year offer, according to a source familiar with talks.
...
The Cardinals guaranteed a base salary below $6 million per season but offered numerous incentives based on Weaver's innings pitched. (Weaver earned $8.325 million last season after signing a one-year deal with the Los Angeles Angels last January.) Cardinals general manager Walt Jocketty and Boras negotiated this week; but the Cardinals' modified proposal failed to meet the agent's demands for up-front money.

My guess is that the Mariners are offering about $5 million, with incentives that will get him to at least $6 million.

by Steve Nelson on Jan 26, 2007 7:40 AM PST reply actions

Here is what came from NY this morning...

Sele signed with the Mets, minor league deal.

Weaver to M's for 2 yr/$16M

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/492106p-414522c.html

by ppl4life on Jan 26, 2007 7:55 AM PST reply actions

Whoa...

that's a bit much, but it's not awful.
Let's just hope Safeco's able to have some effect on that HR/FB ratio...

by marc w on Jan 26, 2007 8:35 AM PST up reply actions

oh man

that's juuust over the line in terms of what would have been acceptable. But yeah, let's hope that 16%HR rate takes a little dive.

Looking closer at his last few years (THT) he seemed to get a lot of help from pop flys when he's doing well. I thought that was a repeatable skill, but got shat on for saying so a little while ago. What's the story with that?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2007 8:51 AM PST up reply actions

It's a highly variable

yet also somewhat repeatable skill. THT 2006 puts the year-to-year IF/F% correlation (r) at 0.24. THT 2007 looked at it again but unfortunately I don't have the with me right now.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 26, 2007 8:54 AM PST up reply actions

i thought it was

a very pitcher specific thing. If a guy pitches high and inside, say, or has particular spin on the ball. I understand that it will vary some for the power or groundball pitchers, but there are some out there who consistently get more outs that way than others. I mean outside of the Coliseum.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Jan 26, 2007 9:26 AM PST up reply actions

Do you mean

I shat on you for saying

IF/F

You need to regress it very heavily toward the mean

in the Rodrigo Lopez = Colorado Rockies thread? If so, that's not shatting on you, it's true. Jeff notes 24%, and someone in that thread said something like 75% luck, 25% skill. Not sure if it's exactly .24, but it's very close, over a full season. So yes, it is pitcher specific, but it's highly variable and extremely high or low numbers are generally non-repeatable out side of freaks like Zito.

by chrisisasavage on Jan 26, 2007 1:50 PM PST up reply actions