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I just realized that I don't know how to generate Win Expectancy charts, and Fangraphs doesn't have one up yet for today, and it wouldn't look like a game summary without one, so I just used yesterday's chart and added a new picture.  Do you think anyone will notice?

Biggest contribution: Richie Sexson?
Biggest Suckfest: Raul Ibanez?
Most Important At Bat: Orlando Cabrera's sac fly?
Most Important Pitch: Vladdy's double off Lowe?
Total Contribution by Bloomquist: 0%
Total Contribution by Snelling: 0%

(I blame Derek)

I have to admit that I decided to go out and run some errands once the Mariners were down 2-0, which is what I've done most other nights this week as well.  I set the VCR to tape the rest of the game, except I put in the wrong tape, and it ran out of space.  The tape cut out literally right after Vladimir Guerrero's huge RBI double.  As far as I can tell, I really didn't miss much after that anyway.  The only real downside of this is that I didn't get home in time to see Chris Snelling get an actual at-bat.

Anyway, because I have no actual data to go on, let me tell you why the above were my picks:

I picked Richie because he was 2-for-3 with a walk and he actually scored a run.  It was really a tossup between him and Johjima, since Johjima got the only real RBI on the team, and he scored the other run.  The argument against Johjima was that he looked pretty silly chucking that ball into centerfield off the Cabrera sac fly.  I feel bad for him, because in theory, it was actually great quick thinking to realize that he wasn't going to make the play at the plate and to go for the play at second, but in practice, I don't think he could have gotten it there in time, and Izturis probably should have ended up at third off the misthrow.

I picked Ibanez because every starter got a hit tonight except Raul and Willie.  The thing is, we don't really expect Willie to get a hit, but we do sort of expect it from Raul.  

Vlad's double off Lowe certainly seems like it knocked the Mariners' percentages of winning down a decent amount. Did any of you really think they had a chance in hell after that?

Rafael Soriano gets major style points for striking out the side in the 8th, and Jamie Moyer should probably get a decent amount of credit for staying out there as long as he did and keeping the Mariners in the game for most of it.  I was really hoping he'd get the win today just because 7-11 sounds a lot cooler than 6-12.  You know, Slurpees and stuff.

Mark Lowe now has an ERA above zero (1.02).  Poor guy.

It's been five hours and the Mariners' official website STILL has a headline up that says "Mariners reinstate outfielder Ian Snelling from 15-day disabled list".  Maybe that's why he wasn't starting tonight?  Hargrove yelled down, "Hey Ian!  Are you ready to play centerfield tonight?" and when he got no response, being as Chris probably doesn't answer to Ian, figured, "Damn, the kid's deaf.  Better put Willie out there."

Tomorrow night, King Felix faces off against Jered Weaver, who still has yet to be pinned with a loss this year.  Given the way the Mariners' offense has been lately, it's unlikely he'll get one this time either.

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Soriano was still topping out at 92
I don't care if he struck out the side. SHUT HIM DOWN!
Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Aug 18, 2006 2:20 AM PDT   0 recs

Speaking of which
I'd give Felix 50 more innings, counting tommorow on the season, then I'd shut him down too.
Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Aug 18, 2006 2:21 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Agreed
This season is lost. Use minor leaguers in the pen, rest our valuable young arms like Lowe and Soriano.

by phil333 on Aug 18, 2006 4:52 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, that's what I was thinkin!!!
So, Scruffy Lefty -- care to chime in?  How's 'em tacos, eh?

;-)

Free George Sherrill. And Dan Rohn.

by PositivePaul on Aug 18, 2006 6:27 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I'll try to make a full-out chart again...
Give me a few hours...heh.
We'll Always Have the Kingdome: Because I'll actually update it now, and I promise it's not that bad.

by BrettJMiller on Aug 18, 2006 2:53 AM PDT   0 recs

Don't worry about it.
Jeff's going to have the real ones up when he gets back from his trip (he's doing them for all the games so he'll have the full-season set for examining data afterwards).

To be fair, I could probably calculate one if I felt like it, but after a game like tonight's, I ask you, is it really worth it?  Yeah, I didn't think so either.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Aug 18, 2006 3:02 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Good point.
I just figure LL needs it's WE...but if Jeff's gonna do them, I won't complain.  That's two and a half hours of time I don't have to spend using walk-off balk's win expectancy finder and a calculator.

Oh yeah, nice work Deanna.  I realized that was a notable emission.  But no more!

We'll Always Have the Kingdome: Because I'll actually update it now, and I promise it's not that bad.

by BrettJMiller on Aug 18, 2006 3:13 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Obviously mine...
Would have been a better fake.

No one would have ever noticed.

by IcebreakerX on Aug 18, 2006 6:08 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Last Night
I dreamed that the Mariners were down 2 runs in the fourth, then came back to win the game.

I've just got to stop eating Italian sausage sandwiches right before bedtime.

by Tom2000 on Aug 18, 2006 6:14 AM PDT   0 recs

I'm curious...
Are we the first team to have faced Jered Weaver for the second time this year?  I'm wondering if that experinece will help us at all.  I doubt it, of course, but, hey, there's always something to look for.

El Cartelua/Cartuela (seen it spelled both ways) pitches tonight.  Whoo boy.  Could be a nice pitchers' duel tonight.

Free George Sherrill. And Dan Rohn.

by PositivePaul on Aug 18, 2006 7:52 AM PDT   0 recs

No
He has faced KC twice--

Game 1: 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R (0 ER), 1 BB, 5 K
Game 2: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 1 R (1 ER), 4 BB, 4 K

And Cleveland twice--

Game 1: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R (2 ER), 2 BB, 8 K
Game 2: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 R (4 ER), 2 BB, 3 K

So it looks like teams fare better (albeit, slightly) the second time around. Knowing the Mariners, though, they'll just keep hacking away instead of working him.

"In this kind of heat, we really ought to start Jamie Moyer - he's older and closer to death, anyway."
--Jarrod Washburn

by Phildopip on Aug 18, 2006 8:08 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Deanna will be happy to know
that as of 9 a.m. the "right on top of everything" Mariners still have "Ian" Snelling listed as being called up.

Maybe we should start a pool to guess when the error will be corrected. I call infinity.

by kva15 on Aug 18, 2006 9:05 AM PDT   0 recs

It's been fixed!
...but I didn't check again until now, 6pm.  Doh.  It's just "Mariners reinstate Snelling" on the front page.
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Aug 18, 2006 6:10 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Yep
It was fixed when I checked after lunch. Now that his identity crisis is resolved, I'm sure that Snelling will hit better!

by kva15 on Aug 18, 2006 6:22 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Others are noticing...
It might be Hargrove and Bavasi looking for boxes to put their stuff in:  http://www.benmaller.com/#mlb_rumors_notes

I like Bavasi...his downfall will probably be not shooting Grover when he should have.

I killed a 12 pack just to watch it die...

by Dollar97 on Aug 18, 2006 9:31 AM PDT   0 recs

so credible....
it lists one sentence, links to a Philly paper, which also printed just one sentence, without any supporting info/quotes, additional insight.

It's speculation.

by Matthew on Aug 18, 2006 2:34 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I care about effort
One of the reasons I follow the Mariners is that the players really seemed to care about the game of baseball.  The last few games have changed my mind.  It seems that the players have given up.  I realize there's no realistic hope of doing anything meaningful, but as a fan, I can't forgive the lack of effort.  Even Jamie says so:

"The season's not over. We've got 41 games left, and you play them all hard and with passion. Otherwise you shouldn't be here."

You can slam Moyer for being old and used up but he held a good Angels lineup to 2 runs for 6.2 innings last night.  At least he seems to be trying.

While it's easy to blame the players for the lack of motivation, it really comes down to the manager.  Grover has lost this ball club and he needs to go now or his cancer could spread into next year.

by PDXTai on Aug 18, 2006 10:51 AM PDT   0 recs

Well Said!!!
I killed a 12 pack just to watch it die...

by Dollar97 on Aug 18, 2006 10:53 AM PDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey Deanna...
Can you do some posts on my blog? Haha...j/k, but damn have I been busy/apathetic.

Great job coming out of the bullpen. :)

"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by ConorGlassey on Aug 18, 2006 12:48 PM PDT   0 recs

heh heh
Nah, I think I'm just a lefty one-outing girl.  :)

I still think you have a pretty good excuse for being too busy to write!

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Aug 18, 2006 6:11 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

busy busy busy
Well, I got married and I got NetFlix. And...let's get serious...watching movies is way more fun than watching the Mariners lately! :)
"The secret of managing is to keep the guys who hate you away from the guys who are undecided." -Casey Stengel

by ConorGlassey on Aug 18, 2006 11:32 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

I have actually considered Netflix myself
and getting into writing movie reviews.  Yes, even with the Mariners on TV.  Gee, how could I?  :P

by Gomez on Aug 19, 2006 1:00 PM PDT to parent up   0 recs

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