44-48, "Additional" Thoughts

One of the problems with predicting how a team does based on how it looks on paper, though, is that this operates under the assumption that the resources on the roster will be maximized to the fullest extent, that the right people will bat in the right places and that as little playing time will go to the worst players as possible. Preseason predictions assume that the roster will be managed perfectly, and that only injuries can cause a deviation from this ideal.

Preseason predictions don't take into consideration people like Mike Hargrove.

Since topping out at 42-40, the Mariners have lost eight of their last ten games. In the first game of this little skid, Hargrove refused to send Eduardo Perez to the plate on two separate occasions when he very easily could have driven home the winning run and sent the M's into a tie for first place. It might've been the worst-managed game of the entire season, and it made people realize that the team had been hot in spite of - not due to - having Hargrove at the helm.

Today (and, to a lesser extent, yesterday) we witnessed another managerial debacle, already addressed by Dave at USSM. The real pièce de résistance was Hargrove going with the excruciatingly horrible Julio Mateo instead of Rafael Soriano or, more alarmingly, JJ Putz in the eleventh inning of a tie game. Predictably, Mateo lost the game, and the Mariners lost the series. Why didn't Putz pitch, you ask? Here's why:

Mateo was in the game because closer J.J. Putz warmed up three times during Saturday's loss and was deemed unavailable by Hargrove on Sunday.

(Bear in mind that Mateo threw two innings the previous day. Soriano threw one, Putz threw zero.)

Honestly, I don't know how to take this anymore. Hargrove was given a talented roster, but through the magic of loyalty to veterans, aggressive baserunning, poor bullpen management, little use of a good bench, and general incompetence, he's managed to piss away winnable game after winnable game. Obviously you can't singularly blame Mike Hargrove for any given Mariner loss, since it's the players who determine the final score, but over the course of the season he's made so many bad to awful decisions that, if I were to give him a Win Probability Added rating, he'd almost certainly be rounding out the bottom. Nobody is ever directly responsible for a loss, but over time the partial blame can add up, and suddenly you realize that one guy has basically cost your team a handful of games. That's Mike. With a perfect skipper, the Mariners would be in first place right now. With an average manager, they'd be at least .500. That, more than anything else, has to be the most maddening fact of the season.

The 2006 Seattle Mariners are a good, talented team, capable of making the playoffs if a few things were to break the right way. However, they're just not good enough to win with Mike Hargrove. The roster was built in such a way that, in order to squeeze out every last drop of production, it must be handled with careful attention paid to detail. And that's just not Mike Hargrove. It's not who he is, and it's not what he does.

I can't stand the thought that Seattle's own manager could end up being the reason why the Mariners miss out on the playoffs. I guess the skeptics were right. I miss Bob Melvin.

-AIDS

Mysterious accomplice to Death whose face is constantly hidden by the FSN header graphic, you can find my email address in the right-hand menu bar. I understand the necessary side-effect of making your acquaintance, but while it's not ideal, I'm not sure a life of watching Mike Hargrove manage your favorite baseball team is a life worth living anyway.