Adam Jones to Seattle

by Envirohawk on Jul 12, 2006 1:11 PM PDT

I sure hope the M's front office guys know what they are doing.

As many others have said, rushing Adam Jones to the show might harm his development (and our chances at contention) in the near future more than it would help the M's in the second half of '06.

Best of luck, Adam.

Jeff's note: here's a link to an interview Devin did with Jones a month and a half ago. It's a quick promotion, but not necessarily undeserved - his month-by-month BB/K in Tacoma has gone from 1/20 to 7/20 to 11/23 to 5/1 over the course of the season, suggesting that he's improved his pitch recognition and that PCL arms are beginning to work around him in the lineup. It's not just his eye, either; lately he's been beating the crap out of the ball to the tune of a .336 BA and .521 SLG since June 1st. Right now, this is the best that Adam Jones has ever been. The Mariners decided to reward his progress by giving him a promotion to The Show a year earlier than anyone ever imagined. Personally, I would've waited until at least September before doing this, but we've known for a while that the guys in charge like to be aggressive with young players, and this is only another example of that mindset at work.

So what can we expect from Jones in Seattle? If his hot streak carries over from AAA, he could have a strong debut, but I'm expecting a moderate slump in the early going, a period of a couple weeks where he's trying to get comfortable and swinging at everything, flailing at breaking balls and getting himself out. That's just the way things go for guys who love to swing the bat as much as Jones. If he doesn't adjust, he'll end up looking like Reggie Abercrombie, but if anything I'd say that Jones' track record is that of a really quick learner, so he could easily turn some heads down the stretch. Overall I'd expect a 2006 OPS somewhere around .700 or so (edit: there's discussion about this in the comments; realistically speaking, Jones' range of possible outcomes is enormous, so I'm just splitting the middle), but there's the potential for more than that, and he'll be better in September than he is this weekend.

Also, his defense isn't great, but it's far from terrible, so, yeah.

Meanwhile, Shin-soo Choo looks like he's just in the wrong organization at the wrong time. While the Mariners could keep him stashed away in AAA in case something goes awry, he's probably the first guy who comes up in trade negotations, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him headed somewhere else if Bavasi decides that he wants to buy at the deadline. Like with Asdrubal Cabrera, his value to the organization is as a trade chip rather than a future OF, and he could end up the biggest part of a package to bring in a #3/4 starter.

I didn't really want Jones to get the call this early, but now that he's on the way up I can't say I'm not excited. He's a thrilling player who could and should be the next permanent addition to a team on the rise, and I'm looking forward to seeing most of the future core all playing together on the same field (Snelling should be up shortly). There's no harm in letting these guys get used to one another.

Final note: Adam Jones has a surprisingly low .504 OPS against lefties this year. Ordinarily this would be enough for Hargrove to arrange a platoon with Willie Ballgame, but Jones is a right-handed hitter, so we could be in for all sorts of tactical hilarity.

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Comments

Dammit

I wanted Snelling!

Don't bother me, I'm hustling.

by Phil Hatzenbuehler on Jul 12, 2006 1:12 PM PDT reply actions

Bleh...

Wayyyyyy too soon.

by rtang on Jul 12, 2006 1:15 PM PDT reply actions

Wow, not cool Bavasi

It's waaaaaaaaaay too soon.

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 1:18 PM PDT reply actions

The only thing I can say

is it didn't hurt Lopez

"When it came to writing posts, nobody ignored statistical data like Scruffy Lefty" - Gomez

by Scruffy Lefty on Jul 12, 2006 1:20 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, but Lopez was ready

Jones is not.

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

thats why I am leaving it at that

I am just hoping Jones takes the failure like Lopez did

"When it came to writing posts, nobody ignored statistical data like Scruffy Lefty" - Gomez

by Scruffy Lefty on Jul 12, 2006 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions

Disagree with the masses

This is a GOOD move IMO. We need a CF that knows how to approach a flyball and can hit. Our prospects need to be challenged, not babied. Keep in mind when referencing his .280 average... that he was hitting like .220-.240 the first month of the year. He adjusted and is now mashing the ball.

Let's see what Adam Jones can do. Worst case scenario, he doesn't do well, and he goes back to Tacoma with a good idea of what he needs to improve.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 1:29 PM PDT reply actions

I just don't like them messing with his

development down there.He was doing very well, especially in the last 2 months. Why not let him finish his year? A september callup after the AAA season is over would of fine.

Doing it now, is just stupid.

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 1:32 PM PDT up reply actions

"Messing up his development"

What I'd really like to see is whether "messing up his development" is the new "clutch." Often cited as a reason to make/not make a move, but is there really any evidence that getting a callup can be harmful?

It's still the same game, whether he's playing it in front of 2,500 or 25,000.

That's not to say I think he'll be a good player this year in Seattle, but I doubt it has any long-term impact, as long as he's playing.

by AnotherAaron on Jul 12, 2006 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Maybe, but in this case it's true

Defensivly especially. He's still learning CF in AAA. Yeah he's a better option than Choo, but he still hasn't mastered the position yet.So why make him get used to another challenge at a higher level, when he hasn't even gotten completely used to the CF challenge at the AAA level.

And then after starting out struggling a little, he's finally kicking ass offensivly in AAA.Why mess with that confidence. Yeah he could continue to hit like that in the majors, but chances are really good that he won't. So why screw around with the confidence he's built up?

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 1:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Not to mention that in the majors

He won't be playing everyday.

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions

except how is Jones any more likely

to hit than Choo? The Ms really need to find out what Choo is and the only way to do that is to actually give him at bats. This was the perfect time to do that. Now they've pissed that away.

I flat disagree with this. Especially since it means it's not Snelling or Cruceta and Everett is still in the lineup and Pineiro is still in the rotation.

by Matthew on Jul 12, 2006 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions

Choo is a defensive liability in CF

Jones, not as much. Assuming their struggles with big league pitching are equal, advantage Jones.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions

But at this point the difference isn't that great

and considering that Jones seems to have a anjustment period of about 6 weeks at each stop, does it seem like he's going to outproduce Choo at all?

Choo's never been given a shot in this org. There's little to zero need to have cut his one chance abruptly short here. Let's be realistic, CF defense is not in the top 5 detriments to this team right now.

This should have been Snelling called up.

by Matthew on Jul 12, 2006 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions

Right on

You just summed up my opinion perfectly.

Why rush one prospect who is clearly not ready - who is more realistically one year away - when there is a guy who has been good for a while in AAA waiting to play.

Choo may not be an elite defensive CFer. But if you don't give him a shot now, he isn't likely to get another.

Dumb. Stupid. Bad player development.

by Jerry on Jul 12, 2006 8:27 PM PDT up reply actions

I Don't Like It Either...

But, there always is the chance that he could rise to the challenge and take off.

This could be comparable to Lopez, as he came up for a bit, didn't do all that great (but wasn't bad either), then came to camp having to win the job, and then being an All-Star. Or not, we'll have to see.

If he's the great player he is, he should be able to hang with the boys a little bit. This move also signals the end of Choo...they apparently didn't think all that much of him; neither did anyone else, but they wanted to see him up as a placeholder for Jones in 07.

I hope he makes the most of it. But Snelling should be up regardless, and Hargrove should be fired...those realities haven't changed.

Long live Alex Diaz!

by Doug Taylor on Jul 12, 2006 1:38 PM PDT reply actions

I like it...

Let the playa play. The idea that this "might" mess with his development isn't a reason to not fill a need on the ballclub with a player who is getting better and better everytime he plays.

Jones is a stud. Now he has to prove it. Let him have the adversity of the Majors because he's quickly out growing minor league ball.

by TIF @ Lookout Landing on Jul 12, 2006 2:19 PM PDT reply actions

Ummm...about that .700 OPS...

I give you Jose Lopez, called up at age 20:

.630 OPS in 57 games, 216 plate appearances.
.661 OPS in 54 games, 200 plate appearances.

I'm not going to be shocked at all to see Jones struggle for the rest of the season.

Hell, go look at A-Rod for a good example. .360/.412/.654 in Tacoma in 1995... and .232/.264/.408 in Seattle. And A-Rod's minor league stats, quite frankly, blow Jones's away.

I think you're being REALLY optimistic, Jeff.

by eponymous coward on Jul 12, 2006 2:21 PM PDT reply actions

Perhaps

I'd ask if you'd think Choo/Bloomquist could do much better, but given the USSM party line pervading the blogosphere, I'm pretty sure I know what the answer is.

I don't think it's realistic to EXPECT good numbers from Choo's bat either.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions

Choo's a more "finished product".

I like his odds of adjusting better than Jones. But yeah, he could suck, too.

As I said over on USSM, this is like drawing to an inside straight. Sometimes you do hit it. It's just not something to put the mortgage money on.

My guess is Bavasi doesn't like how Choo played CF and isn't enamored of the trade options, so Jones it is. It might work.
But if Jones doesn't hit and Everett's in the lineup regularly...2 lineup spots producing bupkus is hard to deal with.

by eponymous coward on Jul 12, 2006 2:46 PM PDT up reply actions

Jones and Everett

One guy has upside. The other does not. In this case, Carl is the problem, not Jones. Everett's presence is a bigger organization problem than fasttracking Adam Jones with Reed hurt and two other guys having Adventures in Center Field. If they get rid of him, you solve a couple problems. Between Choo and Snelling, they could definitely improve in production from the DH spot, and Choo gives you a corner OF bat off the bench... assuming we don't move him.

As Jeff stated, at this point Choo's probably an odd man out no matter how you slice it, and could be elsewhere by 7/31.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh, definitely...

Everett is the problem. No disagreement about that.

Guess what we're disagreeing about is the likelihood of a downside for Jones; I think there's a real risk in stunting his growth by promotion too soon, and that he learn to hit the curve ball in the minors, and not in the majors.

by rtang on Jul 12, 2006 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions

The curveball dilemma brings up interesting q's

Why, in his several years in the minors, has Adam Jones not yet learned how to hit a curveball?

If he hasn't learned in the last couple of years, is he gonna learn it somehow by spending another half year in Tacoma?

Or could watching major league curveballs get him out be the wake up call that leads him to make the extra effort to do so?

It's only a career killer if you lack the mindset to handle adversity. Adam Jones has handled adversity in the minors (new position, fast tracked, early 2006 struggles), which tells me he's better suited to handle adversity in the majors.

I think he'll overcome his struggles to hit the curve, IMO.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions

FWIW -- I Do, Too...

IIRC, USSM wasn't all to excited about the M's using their pick on Adam Jones. I was very curious about this, because I always saw him as having some serious talent. I remember seeing him in his first Spring Training with the M's, and thinking, "Man, this kid could really become a good ballplayer."

He's definitely shown he's got the talent, now it's time to show us if he's got the mental makeup to do it. While I've said he doesn't appear to be Felix-esque, I don't believe he's Mechian either...

Free George Sherrill. And Dan Rohn.

by PositivePaul on Jul 12, 2006 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Curveballs...

My thought is that you may not be able to hit a curveball in the lower minors because there aren't enough pitchers who can throw good ones.
You'd get more of them in AAA who can get it over, and that'd be a better place to learn it.

But....YMMV.

by rtang on Jul 12, 2006 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions

ding ding ding

a good curveball is an endangered species in the minors

by Matthew on Jul 12, 2006 5:00 PM PDT up reply actions

Here's an interesting thought

What if he can't hit it because they're all landing outside the strike zone? What we do know is that he's learned to let those breaking pitches go, because most of them are outside. Being out of reach can make a pitch difficult to hit.

Likewise, once he sees curveballs hitting the zone consistently, who's to say he can't connect with them, once he sees they're within reach for strikes?

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions

No, that's a good thought....

....but it's one I would be more inclined to accept if he had more than six weeks of hot hitting....

I have more faith in SNelling to put up good numbers than SMith at the moment,,,,

by rtang on Jul 12, 2006 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions

But I should be clear....

...bringing up Jones is a MINOR complaint.

It's much lower on the badness scale than, say, signing Carl Everett to a two year deal....

by rtang on Jul 12, 2006 5:18 PM PDT up reply actions

I can totally agree with that!

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 5:26 PM PDT up reply actions

I don't think I'm being REALLY optimistic

...but I was in a pretty good mood when I wrote that.

That said, I don't think it's unreasonable to expect Jones to hit at least a little bit. Preston Wilson OPS'd .852 in his rookie year. Jacque Jones, .789. Jose Guillen, .712. Juan Encarnacion, .915. Troy O'Leary, mid-.700's. Eric Davis, .786. Even Torii Hunter at .689 isn't that bad.

Adam Jones has been fast-tracked, to be sure, but I think there's enough historical precedence of similar players who survived similar treatment that we shouldn't just automatically expect the worst.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 12, 2006 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions

Well...

Davis was pushed less aggressively through the minors than Jones.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Eric-Davis.shtml
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/D/Eric-Davis.shtml

(He's actually the guy I am comping with Jones the most.)

He was also 22 when he debuted.

Wilson debuted at 23. Same with Hunter. Jones debuted at 24. I think it's a bit invalid to compare guys 2-3 years older (with considerably more time in the minors).

Generally speaking, it's a LOT more typical for 21 year olds to struggle (Jones will be 21 August 1st).

That being said, he might be able to do well. I just think we shouldn't be very surprised if we end up with something close to what Jeremy Reed did so far this year, and downright thrilled if he beats it.

by eponymous coward on Jul 12, 2006 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions

Oh, and one other thing...

If Jones turns into a healthy Eric Davis and Lopez stays on track, Betancourt keeps where he's at and King Felix goes where we know he can, that's the kind of talent core that wins rings.

So don't think I'm down on Jones. Or this team. At all.

by eponymous coward on Jul 12, 2006 3:07 PM PDT up reply actions

I give to you Miguel Cabrera...

793 OPS at age 20. I'm not saying Jones is as good as Cabrera, but I'm saying it isn't unheard of for someone that young to put up a strong first season.

by basebliman on Jul 12, 2006 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions

Cabrera...

You could add Albert Pujols to that too. Or Ken Griffey. Or Mickey Mantle. Or Willie Mays. Or Frank Robinson. Or Tony Gwynn. Or...well, you get my drift.

I won't be COMPLAINING if we end up with a guy who's a lock for the Hall of Fame, for sure.

I won't say it WON'T happen...but it's an inside straight kind of thing.

by eponymous coward on Jul 12, 2006 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions

Re: Well...

I guess a lot of it depends on how much stock you're willing to put into Jones' recent PCL tear. Dave touched on it a little bit in his post at USSM:

However, there's no way to know if that 140 at-bat sample is reflective of his current abilities with the bat. (etc.)

If this is the real Adam Jones, then it makes sense to call him up now, because he's clearly too good for AAA and is capable of pushing the Mariners towards a winnable pennant. If it's not, then he'll do his best Reggie Abercrombie impression for three months while the team wonders whether or not to let him start next April.

There's a broad range of possible outcomes here. The Mariners are gambling on the idea that the June/July Adam Jones is a different player than the April/May version, and if this turns out to be true, then they've made the right decision. It could also very easily be wrong, because like Dave said, a lot of things can happen in 140 at bats, and Jones might actually still be the exact same player that he was two months ago. I don't think we're currently in position to know which is true.

All I'm saying, though, is that there's at least reason to believe that the Mariners are right, and that Adam Jones is ready for Seattle. There's a legitimate chance that he makes a seamless transition and becomes a useful, if productive player within a couple of weeks. Bombing also has to be considered as a very real possibility, but for the sake of being safe and avoiding the "wet blanket" label, I split the middle.

I could've written it differently, because we really can't tell for sure whether he's going to OPS .600 or .800 for the rest of the year. But even though I wouldn't have made this move, I'm looking forward to finding out.

(If you couldn't tell, that's me sitting on the fence. I think I still need more time to digest all this.)

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 12, 2006 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions

PCL tear

I wish Everett had an ACL tear

A baseball game is nothing but a great slow contraption for getting you to pay attention to the cadence of a summer day. - Summerland

by lessthnpar on Jul 12, 2006 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions

Or a PCL tear.

Not as common but more debilitating, because your hamstrings will continually pull your knee out of alignment backwards.

by The Dude on Jul 12, 2006 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions

While I don't agree with this move...

...I, too, will be excited to see AJ in an M's uni. He's a terrific player, and like Jeff said, a quick learner. I, too, expect him to struggle with the bat, but he'll probably bat somewhere 7-9 to minimize the damage. Plus he could turn some heads early on -- blastin' 'em outta the park. He's excellent on the bases (when he's not circlin' 'em, anyway) and has an A+++ arm in the outfield.

I definitely want him to succeed. I expect him to struggle, but, hey, people surprise us all the time!

Free George Sherrill. And Dan Rohn.

by PositivePaul on Jul 12, 2006 2:34 PM PDT reply actions

My thoughts exactly

I'm scared of what might happen, but also excited for what could happen. He's not the no. 1 prospect in the organization for no reason, and I'm pumped to see that mountain of talent get a chance in the bigs.

YAY JOSE!

by WAB on Jul 12, 2006 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Agreed. Don't like the move, but since it happened

anyways, I'm pumped to see what the kid can do.

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah...

...and hope he doesn't get jerked around by Hargrove.

by rtang on Jul 12, 2006 3:32 PM PDT up reply actions

that's me too

no use in lamenting if it's too early, since I can't do anything about it. I just hope it pays off.

Seems like Bavasi is really feeling the heat of his possible firing and has gotten really aggressive now that the team is showing a few signs of life. Its a shame he is not being aggressive in the ways that we were all hoping for (Hargrove/Everett).

by jtopps on Jul 12, 2006 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions

That might have been a factor

After all, the Mariners have two objectives: to win, sure, but also to sell tickets and put fannies in seats. If they fan the flames with local sportswriters with a hook of "the future is now" and get people excited to come out to see the team again, from a bottom-line perspective it almost doesn't matter if Jones struggles. I know my first thought when hearing the news was, "Oooh -- I want to see his first game!" Who knows how many other people are thinking the same?

Pregnancy takes nine months, no matter how many women you put on the job.

by zagreusmd on Jul 12, 2006 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions

One question

Does Jones' service time start to run because he's being brought up in July, and if he stays up here for a half season, how will this affect his arbitration, Free Agency?

by MT on Jul 12, 2006 3:32 PM PDT reply actions

Again, from Dave:

If he never goes back to the minors, he'll be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. If he had not been called up this year, and spent a month or so in the minors next year, he would not be a free agent until after the 2013 season.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 12, 2006 3:40 PM PDT up reply actions

thanks Jeff

I was just going over USSM and noticed that as well.

by MT on Jul 12, 2006 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions

clock

but if he is the starter next season then it is the same either way, 2012.

by bilbo on Jul 12, 2006 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions

Why Choo?

I don't understand completely why Choo is being sent down (other than the obvious "too many outfielders"). It's not to make room, though, because Oliveros is going to be sent down. If Choo is going down, then it means there is a second callup also (Snelling? Cruceta?). Bringing up Snelling would still create the "too many outfielders" problem, so probably Cruceta or another pitcher.

by kva15 on Jul 12, 2006 7:48 PM PDT reply actions

who said

choo was going down?

by Corco on Jul 12, 2006 8:24 PM PDT up reply actions

The more I think and read about this...

the less I like it.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 12, 2006 8:50 PM PDT reply actions

LOL

It's the internet equivalent of Dave Cameron dangling a watch in front of you and chanting, "You do not like the callup of Adam Jones. You do not like the callup of Adam Jones...."

Everyone's just repeating what Dave wrote. I think people are more enamored with Choo than they should be, plus they still have nightmarish memories of Miguel Olivo.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 9:19 PM PDT up reply actions

That is total BS

That is not true.

There have actually been instances where on this and other blogs in the past where people have suggested that Jones or Clement should be promoted.

Those posts were most often greeted by replies that varied from skepticism to rather violent opposition.

In fact, I didn't think that Jones was ready to start 2006 in Tacoma. I would have been against this move regardless of what Dave Cameron thinks.

In this instance (and in many instances), Dave just happens to be correct.

It is a bad move.

Jones may be a suprise. But the risk here outweighs the rewards.

The worst part about this is that it is not absolutely necessary.

by Jerry on Jul 12, 2006 9:25 PM PDT up reply actions

By the way

What does Olivo have to do with this?

And all of the stuff that I remember reading on the USSMariner about Choo were pretty negative. Unless I am mistaken, Dave thought that Choo was not much more than a 4th OFer. So you can't argue that Dave has influenced people to think that Choo is the man.

by Jerry on Jul 12, 2006 9:28 PM PDT up reply actions

No, that's not really it.

Believe me.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 12, 2006 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions

Your wrong

The day Reed was injured Jason Churchill and I were discussing the probability of Jones being called up over MSN and both of us agreed it would be a bad idea.

USSM didn't start discussing Jones maybe being called up till a few days after.

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Still the Case

Churchill's reaction today was that he HATES (his emphasis) this move.

I don't think it's a good move either, but not with the same passion of hatred that others are showing. I have had the chance to see Adam Jones play a couple of times -- I saw him rip a fast ball and I saw him look completely foolish on breaking balls.
Is he ready for the Big Leagues? No.
Can he continue to develop at the top level? Yes (he has natural talent that can be refined).
Do I have even one iota of faith that Hargrove will utilize him a manner that even remotely represents his best interests? Absolutely not!!

Above I asked a question about why Choo would be sent down (was reported on KJR). That was NOT an endorsement of Choo. I've also seen him play a couple times and I am not a big fan of his. He is way too inconsistent and the down periods last far too long (a sign of immaturity in his approach). I was simply asking why he would be sent down (because if I take off my shoes and get a friend to help, I can count to 25). I actually hope Choo does get sent down because I think there are others who could help the team more.

Speaking of which... Jeff Harris is back to pitching in live games. His rehab stint in Peoria is now two official innings old (one on Friday and one Sunday). He did well, giving up a single to the first batter followed by three straight outs each time. Here's to hoping Jeff gets well very soon!

by kva15 on Jul 12, 2006 10:49 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah

Whether or not that's the case, it's certainly the prevailing attitude throughout the blogosphere. I think everyone's writing off Jones far too quickly and not giving him very much credit at all. Everyone sounds certain he will crash and burn during this callup.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 12, 2006 11:13 PM PDT up reply actions

Of course there is the chance that he could do

well. Hell he could put up some decent numbers this year, then puts up good numbers next year and be an all star from here on out.

But the chances of that are not good. And it just isn't worth the risk of hurting his development.

Fire Mike Hargrove!

by Goose on Jul 12, 2006 11:46 PM PDT up reply actions

anecdotal?

One thing I've learned from the sabermetric writers: when everyone's repeating a phrase as if it were a mantra, get suspicious. Today that phrase is "hurt his development," so I'm going to play Devil's Advocate and ask: how do we know to be concerned about this? Do we believe Jones' development might be hurt simply because it kind of makes sense when you think about it (placing this argument on the same level as those for clubhouse chemistry or clutch hitting), or has there been solid work around call-ups and player development schedules? In short, is the argument analytic or anecdotal?

Understand, I'm not trying to argue for Jones' call-up by sneaky, backdoor means. I'm ambivalent myself--eager to see Jones play, but not at all convinced that he'll do much this year or next. But I think Gomez is right in that we're seeing something of a crowd mentality here, and it would be nice to see something on the topic that's a little more solid than just, "I like/don't like this move."

Pregnancy takes nine months, no matter how many women you put on the job.

by zagreusmd on Jul 13, 2006 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions

Ok

How about this arguement: By bringing Jones up now, we are burning a year of service time. He will have a greater impact over the course of a full season in 2013 than he will in half of 2006. Ergo, it's an unwise move.

by Graham MacAree on Jul 13, 2006 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions

Not at all

some of us just don't see a point in bringing Jones up now. It has very little to do with Jones himself and everything to do with context.

Such as:
-Choo needs to be given an actual shot, even if it's only to decide whether he's going to top out at 4th OF or be good trade bait or whatever. It's not Olivo I refer to, it's people like Thames and Choi who just get passed over for whatever reason by teams.
-Another month or two in AAA isn't going to hurt Jones
-Snelling occupies a more pressing need to be called up
-Jones's arb clock needs to be of consideration. It would be stupid to burn an entire year of relative prime year for an extra 4-6 weeks of him struggling when there's no need for it.
-Choo isn't killing the team.

Seriously, considering the above reasons, can you give me an argument that holds water in support of Jones' promotion at this time?

I don't think Jones will bat like Player A, field like Willie and turn into a raving psycho case by being promoted right now. I just think it's an entirely sub-optimal decision given the above state.

by Matthew on Jul 13, 2006 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions

OK, to humor all this

Why does Choo NEED a shot? Teams get in situations like this all the time, where they have a good player but at a position where they are backloaded, and there's just no real opportunity to play the guy without playing him out of position and hurting the ballclub defensively. Plus, with the pressure of playing a new position, who doesn't say that hurts Choo's focus at the plate? There appears to be an underlying assumption that he WILL produce, and I'm not so sure.
Well, no, it wouldn't. However, we have defensive liabilities patrolling CF, neither of which carry a convincingly contributive bat. Jones isn't perfect but can man the spot better than the current two options.
Unless you keep Jones in Tacoma through the middle of next season, you're gonna burn a year of team control anyway. We're talking six years down the road anyway. And there's an assumption that, if you call him up next season, he won't struggle as much as he will now. Like many callups, he likely will struggle in his initial callup regardless.
Choo doesn't kill the team, unless a drive's hit to CF with runners on. This is not the case with Jones. Also, the belief that he doesn't kill the team offensively is based on minor league ABs and a handful of major league ABs. Who's to say HE doesn't struggle at the plate over 200 ABs?

I can't buy the argument that Choo is a foolproof option and Jones is a bad idea based only on status quo speculation. Assuming Jones does have trouble, it's not like they can't option him back after a few games and go back to Choo/Bloomquist in CF. I don't think a few games of struggles in the majors will destroy Adam Jones.

SWUNG ON AND BELTED! DEEP TO... shortstop....

by Gomez on Jul 13, 2006 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions

I disagree...

Why does Choo need a shot? This is why we have a minor league system. Granted there are guys that see their skills decline as they move up levels, only to never get a shot. But we are talking about a guy that is performing well above average at the highest level of the minor leagues. And when the major league club has an opening, why wouldn't you give him a chance. Rushing Jones up does nothing for us at this point. Choo is obviously not our CF of the future, but what if given time he starts hitting. Then we know we can plug him in to LF next year. Or he gains some trade value. Think of the players we've lost because we could (or would) not even give them an opportunity.

So you give Choo 30 days. If he's still hitting below .200, you move on and try something else. I just don't see the need to bring Jones up right now. Let him become the man in AAA and fight for the CF job with Reed in spring training next year.

by Geeves72 on Jul 13, 2006 10:03 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm not saying Choo is "foolproof"

I'm saying Jones is just as much of a guarentee as Choo.

"There appears to be an underlying assumption that [Choo] WILL produce, and I'm not so sure."

Absolutely no such assumption is being made. I just want the team to, you know, try and find out instead of not, which is what they appear to be doing.

"Unless you keep Jones in Tacoma through the middle of next season, you're gonna burn a year of team control anyway. We're talking six years down the road anyway."

Wrong. See Felix and Lopez. It's all about service time accrued per year. And when that mark finally exceeds 6 years. If we wait and bring up Jones in say August (like we did with Felix) we do not lose a year on his arb clock because he wont get the needed service days for this year to count against him.

"Assuming Jones does have trouble, it's not like they can't option him back after a few games and go back to Choo/Bloomquist in CF. I don't think a few games of struggles in the majors will destroy Adam Jones."

In which case, it's all moot anyways. And even then, the timing is poor because you interrupted Choo's regular PT.

by Matthew on Jul 13, 2006 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions

Furthermore

the diff between Choo's defense in CF and Jones defense in CF manifested over the course of 20-30 games is like 2 or 3 runs TOPS.

by Matthew on Jul 13, 2006 1:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Im remaining...

...cautiously optimistic. I'm not in hatred of this move, bad though it may be, and the result may show that to be true, but there's something about getting to see one of our kids up here in the show that always makes me smile.

I do agree there IS a concern for stunting ones development by pushing them to The Show too soon, but we have to remember it's not as if he's going to have his waders removed and then be asked to dive down and raise the Titanic. He's going to still have coaches and staff up here, and most importantly, other experienced veterans and guys like him who can help out if they see him doing stuff wrong.

People have been comparing his situation to Jose Lopez's, which isn't true because Lopez had proven that he had nothing to learn in AAA anymore. However, Jose Lopez did struggle a bit in his first attempts at The Show, and sticking Adam Jones with him might be the best idea for everybody. They are in a similar situation, and the difference is one of them has had a year to get past that first period. Lopez might be the best guide Jones can have.

by TIF @ Lookout Landing on Jul 13, 2006 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Where did this guy

get this stuff anyway? There have been no written reports that i have seen anywhere indicating that Jones is getting the call.

Lifelong M's fan

by grizant05 on Jul 13, 2006 7:09 AM PDT reply actions

Re: Where did this guy

Dave and Jason Churchill are both reporting it, and Jones was held out of yesterday's AAA All Star Game for "unspecified reasons." He's coming up.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 13, 2006 7:41 AM PDT up reply actions

oh

Good to know, thanks. BTW, who are Jason and Dave Churchill? Should be exciting to have him up here, just get Snelling up to DH instead of Crazy Carl and i'd be a happy guy.

Lifelong M's fan

by grizant05 on Jul 13, 2006 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions

Dave posts at USSM.

Jason Churchill covers the minors and posts here.

by Jeff Sullivan on Jul 13, 2006 8:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Snelling

I hope he gets called up soon. Otherwise, he probably feels like crap right now with Jones getting the call. We really need a guy that can get on base in our lineup right now more than anything. Jones OBP has improved steadily, but he is no Snelling when it comes to getting on base.

I think they should have let him finish out the year in Tacoma.

by Geeves72 on Jul 13, 2006 8:30 AM PDT reply actions

Snelling

I want him up too, but that knee still scares me. I would imagine that is why they are leaving him down, they want him to get that knee good and strong before they bring him up to play every day. I'd like to see him up in the DH spot but they have to get Crazy Carl off the roster first lest he go birzirk and maime his teamates and manager once informed that he truly sucks.

Lifelong M's fan

by grizant05 on Jul 13, 2006 9:36 AM PDT up reply actions