Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: RSL Soapbox for Real Salt Lake Fans!

2-1

George Sherrill retired the final batter about twenty minutes ago and my heart is still racing.

If you ignore the final score for a second, today's game seemed almost identical to yesterday's - a healthy early lead instills a sense of comfort and calmness, but Anaheim starts chipping away and forces the Mariner lineup to scratch together a little insurance to stay ahead. Throw in a white-knuckle ninth inning and you've got yourself a carbon copy of a ballgame. And you know what? Today's win feels just as good as yesterday's. You can become conditioned over time to care less and less about losses, but wins, like Gobstoppers, are always so so sweet. Particularly when they involve the Angels losing.

Chart it!

Biggest Contribution: Richie Sexson, +15.9%
Biggest Suckfest: Julio Mateo, -6.2%
Most Important Hit: Sexson double, +16.6%
Most Important Pitch: Cabrera homer, -12.4%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +15.0%
Total Contribution by Hitters: +27.3%

(What is this?)

Richie Sexson is The AntiPutz, making the biggest positive contribution on the team two days in a row. Sure, you could say that he sort of rested on his laurels after that first inning double, but it was a big double, so who are we to complain? Julio Mateo comes away looking better than you'd expect, given what he did, while Sherrill comes away at +7.1% after coincidentally losing about 7.1 gallons of sweat during the game (seriously, I bet the mound tastes like saltines).

In any given game, you can expect a team to earn a sum total of either +50% or -50% of Win Probability Added, depending on whether they won or lost. However, it often doesn't work out quite like that, as defensive miscues by the opponent can help a team's chances of winning through no fault of their own. For example, look at the following little table:


Game # Expected WPA Actual WPA
1 -0.500 -0.617
2 +0.500 +0.472
3 +0.500 +0.423

Errors, wild pitches, and passed balls by the Anaheim defense and pitching staff have "given" the Mariners a free +0.222 in WPA over three games. To put it a little differently, the Angels have essentially improved Seattle's chances of winning by an average of roughly 7% in each game by themselves. When you're on the road and playing against a good team (and the Mariners are a good team, God dammit), you really can't afford to put yourself at a further disadvantage by making stupid mistakes, because they're going to come back and bite you in the ass. And that's exactly what's happened. Kudos to the M's for taking two out of three to open the season, but man, they sure did get their share of help.

Sometimes I like to pretend that Mariner players read this website for the sake of stroking my own ego. Other times I like to pretend that Mariner players read this website so that I can say things like "see, Jarrod Washburn read what we thought about his contract and set out determined to prove us all completely wrong!" Because, boy, he was something else today. He struck out seven batters in seven innings - including an impressive strikeout of Vlad Guerrero to get things going in the first - while inducing eight groundball outs against five in the air (a few of which were harmless pop-ups). I don't have a single complaint about his performance. He stayed around the plate, he missed bats, and he kept Vlad in the yard, just like he said he would. It's possible that he came into the game with an inherent advantage, having been around these Angel hitters for his entire career, but even if you take that into consideration, he was still terrific. Kinda flukey, but terrific nonetheless.

The thing that kinda gets to me about him, though...when Washburn pitches, instead of remaining over his front knee, his lead glove flies wildly away towards third base, directing momentum sideways and forcing him to throw slightly across his body. (Here's an example of what I mean.) Not only does that place extra stress on the throwing shoulder and elbow, but it's also been known to contribute significantly to spotty control. Washburn, though, has always been a strike-thrower, so it's apparently not as big of an issue here as it is with a few other pitchers. It's still something he could stand to clean up, as a little adjustment could improve both his control and his velocity, but he's been doing it for so long that it's probably not worth the effort. Anyway, that's just something I couldn't help but notice. I suppose it'll be of a little more concern if he starts developing shoulder problems down the road, but until then, whatever. I'll gladly take more games like today's in the meantime.

A running theme throughout the game was how Washburn was looking forward to facing his old teammates. He said that he'd made some "mental notes" in anticipation of the matchup, and the Geico Quote of the Game showed him talking about how Darin Erstad is a serious guy, so he wanted to go out there and try to make him laugh. (Of course, Rick Rizzs would later go on to not only repeat the little anecdote, but also totally botch it, claiming that Jarrod wanted to make everyone laugh to break their concentration. Holy smokes!) I think it's safe to say that Washburn was a little amped; he went out there in the first inning with a more energetic delivery and a 93mph fastball before calming things down later on. Nothing like showing the guys whose boss right off the bat.

Before the game, Dave labeled Jarrod as a guy who regularly gets you into the seventh or eighth innings. I wonder if anyone's told him that Washburn has averaged just about six frames flat per start over the last two years. He's not really Livan Hernandez out there.

Given his face, body, attitude, and dumb shaggy hair, Jeff Weaver looks like a total stoner. Bartolo Colon, meanwhile, looks like a guy who used to smoke out all the time before forcing himself to stop because he got the munchies too often. John Lackey's their dealer.

Julio Mateo can do a lot of things. He can come out of the bullpen to get through a tough at bat, he can throw three innings in case some of the other guys are unavailable, he can spot start, and he can have a lot of success in a place like Safeco Field. What he can't do is pitch in high-leverage situations without getting burned pretty often. He doesn't miss very many bats, but the bigger problem is that he is an incredibly extreme flyball pitcher. As you should all know by now, guys who give up flyballs will also give up home runs, and that's pretty much the last thing you want from a guy pitching important innings in the later stages of a game. It's the same reason why I haven't been real high on the idea of Octavio Dotel as a closer in years past. Dotel, like Mateo, puts the ball in the air like it's going out of style, and the inevitable result is a bunch of souvenirs and crushing defeats. These pitchers can still be effective around the home runs, but they're still way too risky an option to protect those narrow late leads. Julio Mateo needs to stay a middle reliever. Trying to squeeze more out of him is just asking for trouble.

I don't know which thing about Hendu annoys me more - the way he stumbles over simple sentences, the way he makes up his own spur-of-the-moment nonsensical colloquialisms, or the way he just gets things totally wrong. An example of #1: every other thing he says. An example of #2: "(Donnelly)'s getting loose like you get ready to catch a train." An example of #3: "Tim Salmon introduced himself to Guardado last night with a big home run." (Salmon has faced Guardado 26 times in his career, more than anyone else on the team.) What makes it worthwhile is that I don't think I'm the only one who feels this way. In the absence of Ron Fairly, Dave Niehaus was forced to work with Hendu again, and early in the game you got the feeling that he really wasn't enjoying himself. Before they switched off the announcer mics between innings, you either heard total silence or Dave muttering to himself about things I probably won't understand until I'm however old he is. There's not much chemistry there, which makes it fun to try and pay special attention to the announcer dynamic when the game starts dragging.

Dave on a flyball to center field off the bat of Carl Everett: "Is the infield fly rule going to be called?"

Yesterday we had to deal with the reality that MLB.tv would no longer allow us to listen in on the broadcaster booth during commercial breaks. Today we were introduced to the MLB.tv Death Static, which perks up when you least expect it and serves to convincingly discourage the act of leaving your speakers on between innings. It's a horrifying sound for which there is no earthly comparison, as the existence of one would ruin Satan's surprise of making it the noise you here before you die. In case you aren't an MLB.tv subscriber and you'd like to have some idea of what I'm talking about, just imagine the sound of a thousand infants crying into megaphones as they get devoured by a plague of flesh-eating robot locusts. That's the best I can do.

Esteban Loaiza and Gil Meche tomorrow at 7:05pm PDT.

0 recs  |  Comment 38 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

I'm calling this
a 4 gobstopper win.

win the first series is big, against div is good, and with good offense and great SP.

by Matthew on Apr 5, 2006 8:16 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Kudos
for getting the recap up so quickly.

Dammit, I love beating the Angels more than anybody else.

Don't bother me, I'm hustling.

by Phildopip on Apr 5, 2006 8:26 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Mmmm
It makes me want a hamburger, though, for some reason....

by jimmimoose1 on Apr 6, 2006 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Worst part about the static
is that if you turn off your speakers and happened to check out Lookoutlanding.com, you might miss the next at bat

by manyoso on Apr 5, 2006 8:28 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah.
I totally forgot to mention how the feed routinely missed the first few pitches of each inning. That wasn't annoying or anything.

by Jeff on Apr 5, 2006 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well
FSN missed J-Lo's triple because they were showing replays, so that wasn't too satisfying either.  Grrr I dislike FSN sometimes.

by jimmimoose1 on Apr 5, 2006 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

AthleticsNation.com
They have open threads with 300+ comments and it is still not threaded?  What's up with that?

by manyoso on Apr 5, 2006 8:53 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Jeff
I know it's just an uninformed guess but how long do you think until MLB.tv gets their act together and games are streamed cleanly without black screens, needing to reload, etc?

by phil333 on Apr 5, 2006 9:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

WAG = one or two weeks.
Keep in mind that they're still working on launching their six-games-at-once feature, which is probably taking up most of their time.

by Jeff on Apr 5, 2006 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hey Jeff
Just thought I'd say (and everyone knows) that this is just a damn fine site. I spent alot of time on USSM last season, which is an amazing site for Mariners fans too, but the threads here have been great.There is much to be said for the positive tone to the commenting (amongst one another) and the analysis. Thanks a bunch.

by anotherjeff on Apr 5, 2006 9:15 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I'll second this, this site is awesome, whether I need to be cheered up after a tough loss, or whether I'm looking to revel in our collective glory, this site works for me.  Thanks!

by jimmimoose1 on Apr 5, 2006 9:35 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thirded
Got to praise Jeff's writing too.  Witty + Insightful = Good.

by Nadingo on Apr 5, 2006 10:21 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just to pile on the praise:
Lookoutlanding's snark factor = Acceptably low

As for so many other modern writers, if this is post-modernism, i can see why the written word is moribund.

by John Morgan on Apr 6, 2006 1:04 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Even more praise...
I used to be a USSMariner first, Lookout Landing second reader until I kept noticing their people deleting comments all the time. That rubbed me the wrong way because it was like they were the almighty rulers of their domain and could kick out someone's opinion if it didn't fit their guidelines. I'm not a big fan of that unless someone is being downright abusive or obscene. Then all of a sudden these WE charts come along and they are as addicting as crack! I look forward to them everyday. I came for the charts and stick around for the thoughtful analysis and once the minors get rolling, looking forward to the minor league reports again. Keep up the good work, Jeff and others that make this train keep chuggin' along.

by basebliman on Apr 6, 2006 1:18 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm here
because I've been kicked out of every other place....

or not....

actually I stop by here and add my two cents because Jeff was the person that got me looking deeper into stats to understand things better.

But I'm still not a Sabergeek! :)

by MfaninAlaska on Apr 6, 2006 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Boo-yah!
More Kudos (one could get sick of these candy bars) - but I've been checking this site out since it (or sportsblogs nation) made the Time Top 50.  I've referred several other M's fans because you have a great way of expressing our feelings (both positive and negative) about this team.  Without the statistical analysis, last year, I was so frustrated with Putz.  This year, I am still frustrated!  But now I know why and I am not the only one!  Hmmm, maybe this is just a virtual support group.

In any case, just an observation about the first three games (not much of a sample to go on, but that is where the emotion comes in) - how much more entertaining has the baseball been than the last couple of years?  Okay, less than 2% of the season has been played, and nothing can be counted on in baseball, but I can enjoy the moment.  The odds are that we will suffer through some agony later, but isn't it amazing how success breeds success?  The team success euphoria, the confidence building, and the 2-out magic - these things can snowball into 116 wins with role players, and the current batch has more than just role players.  

My 3-year-old already knows how to say Joh-Jee-Mah!!!!

James

screamingkoi

by screamingkoi on Apr 5, 2006 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

wooohhh there
I'd like nothing more, but I think you are setting yourself up for disappointment hoping for 116 wins ;)

As for Putz, he wasn't all that bad last year.  Not anything to get to excited about either.  Honestly, the entire bullpen isn't looking so good to me this year save for Raffy.

Usual comments about small sample size, blah, blah.

by manyoso on Apr 5, 2006 10:26 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Positive Is...
that the bullpen gave up big homers in all three games, and we still won two of three.  The bullpen isn't going to give up runs every time out, so let's think of this as early season jitters.  Just imagine how good we could be this year if Beltre and Everett weren't mucking up the middle of the order.  It's only a matter of time before Petagine is starting, and Everett is grabbing his crotch after taking batting practice off Jamie Moyer.

by Geeves72 on Apr 5, 2006 11:03 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

Not likely
Snelling will force Everett to the bench long before Petagine will.Besides, Petagine really isnt that much better anyways.People are getting WAY too excited over one pinch hit homer and a good spring.
We all should have a bit of Willie Bloomquist in us. ~Mike Hargrove

by Goose on Apr 5, 2006 11:09 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe
However, his early ST and that one pitch cry out for getting the guy more at bats.  If nothing else, we should try and take advantage of his streaking.

by manyoso on Apr 5, 2006 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Let's also not forget...
his great career numbers in Japan. Surely, he's heading for the decline years, but we can't dismiss those numbers as a complete fluke, let alone his minor league numbers before going to Japan. This guy is solid and in my opinion could be much more productive than Everett. Snelling is another matter, however. I just hope he isn't rushed back because the last thing that guy needs is to get hurt again.

by basebliman on Apr 6, 2006 1:23 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

The Crotch
That is funny, and I am still amazed that management thought it a good idea to bring CE onto the same team as Moyer.  In any case, I don't have any delusions about 116 wins, I just have that early season optimism that says 'prove us wrong' - I expect to be proven wrong, but I am unwilling to write off the season so early.

On the bullpen, I think that the M's have won in spite of the bullpen.  This means almost nothing after three games.  If I were to see this statement four months into the season, it would be impactful, but not yet.

On Putz, I love watching his pitches scream in, but I don't enjoy watching them scream out.  I think he has what it takes, but like so many others, there is something missing to take him to the level of an all-star mid-reliever.  BTW, there is almost no such thing as an all-star mid-reliever.

Jeff, I have not been around long enough to see, but I would be really interested in seeing value per hit, or value per RBI, based on salary.  Is this something you analyze?

James

screamingkoi

by screamingkoi on Apr 5, 2006 11:15 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Value per hit/RBI/salary
I wouldn't really be sure which stat to use, since I'm not a big fan of VORP.

by Jeff on Apr 6, 2006 5:27 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Who is most impressive so far?
Is it Kenji?  Or perhaps it is Sexson?

NOPE!

It is Jose Lopez.

Look at his line:

SEASON  TEAM  G  AB  R  H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  TB  BB  SO  SB  CS  OBP  SLG  AVG
2006       Seattle Mariners  3  13  3  6  0  1  0  4  8  0  1  0  0  .462  .615  .462

by manyoso on Apr 5, 2006 11:24 PM PDT reply actions   0 recs

.462/.462
meh
We all should have a bit of Willie Bloomquist in us. ~Mike Hargrove

by Goose on Apr 6, 2006 12:01 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's getting good pitches and hitting them.
He can't force people to walk him. Having only one strikeout so far indicates he's not having a problem being patient.

by Rollo Tomasi on Apr 6, 2006 5:28 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Exactly
especially since he's only struck out once in those 13 at bats. I realize this is small sample size theater, but give the guy 600 at bats and he'll only strike out 45 times. Give me that any day.
Don't bother me, I'm hustling.

by Phildopip on Apr 6, 2006 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

More lines to discuss:
Player    TEAM POS G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG AVG

J Reed SEA  OF  3  9  2  3  1  0  0  0  4  1  4  1  0  .400  .444  .333

Y Betancourt SEA  SS  3  11  2  2  0  0  0  2  2  0  1  0  0  .182  .182  .182

What can you say?  Reed's line doesn't that bad considering his wrist.  

Betancourt, however, from the numbers looks much like Beltre.

by manyoso on Apr 6, 2006 8:34 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

heh
well, that's all we got so far...  yah, i forgot to mention the usual about a limited data set, blah, blah

so, sue me :)

by manyoso on Apr 6, 2006 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Betancourt is our #9 hitter for a reason
I don't care what he does with the bat.
We all should have a bit of Willie Bloomquist in us. ~Mike Hargrove

by Goose on Apr 6, 2006 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hendu
Thanks for discussing Hendu's proclivity for mangling the language - it's one of my pet peeves.  I like Hendu a lot, but sometimes I find myself shouting "shut up fool!!" at the TV.  Imagine what it would be like if Hendu and Valle were paired up to call a game - yikes!!
Evening Perambulations - It's All About Seattle Mariners Baseball

by irontech on Apr 6, 2006 9:01 AM PDT reply actions   0 recs

My favorite Hendu-ism
is when he couldn't say Willie Bloomquist's name right. It came out as "Rilly Boomkist".

Also, one time Ron Fairly mangled Pineiro's name to "Joel Pinay".

Good times. :)

Don't bother me, I'm hustling.

by Phildopip on Apr 6, 2006 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

That is scary...
I don't know which one would be worse, probably Hendu. Every game now when Hendu tries to be insightful, I end up shaking my head thinking "WHAT?!?!" or "What the hell, that doesn't make any sense!" Sometimes I wonder if he's been tipping back a few before going on the air. I wish Bill Kreuger would go from the studio and into the park because at least he has intelligent things to say.

by basebliman on Apr 6, 2006 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Max_small
FootbaLL IV (Nov 21st)
Small
The Sabermetrics of Cats

Recent FanPosts

Small
WAR gains major exposure
Laughing_man_elmex_small
AFL Championship game thread
Smell-the-glove_small
OFFTOP 11/19 - The Hand of Fraud
Small
Tony Blengino interview on 710 AM ESPN Seattle's Hot Stove League
Ichirocameron_small
OTFPOTD 11/16: Recipes Edition
Small
Lookout Landing as a communtiy
Small
Royals determined to unload Callaspo...
Ichiro_small
Ackley and Triunfel on MLB TV right now

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >


Sexy People

1_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff