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Because This Needs A Thread

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For the Mariners to wind up with Manny Ramirez to play left field, the Giants would get Richie Sexson to play first base and the Red Sox would get reliever J.J. Putz, and center field prospect Adam Jones, among others. Seattle would, under one scenario, also land starting pitcher Noah Lowry.

I promised myself I wouldn't get caught up in all this, but, well, yeah. It's Manny freaking Ramirez, for God's sake. You can only stay composed for so long.

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It must be asked
Do we really want The Adventures of Manny Ramirez in Left Field?

Do we want his bat?  Hell YEAH we do.  Do we want his nightmarishly bad defense in LF?  Not so much.

by Gomez on Dec 4, 2006 7:20 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

For one thing
there's evidence that his defense isn't nearly as awful outside of Boston as it is at home. He's still bad, but he's not crippling in a Ken-Griffey-Jr.-in-center kind of way.

For another, who knows, maybe he'd DH.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 7:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
Although I'm far from an expert, I've seen arguements that the fielding metrics do not know how to accurately account for the monster, hurting his numbers. Flyball outs in other stadiums go for extra bases at Fenway.

Perhaps the Mannyisms we all remember (notably the cleats getting caught in the grass on the sliding catch in the 2004 playoffs(?) and his role in the Beltre inside the park HR) are simply isolated incidents

He's also supposed to have a gun out there, but this too may be boosted by playing in front of the monster

by DCMariner on Dec 4, 2006 7:41 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sexson, Putz, AND Jones?
That's a mite high. I'd only do that if Lowry comes back too.

by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 4, 2006 7:23 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sexson, Putz, and Jones for Manny and Lowry?
Sign me up!
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 7:25 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I would have thought . ..
I would have thought Putz alone could get us some serious return.

I have to ask if one could envision a better trade that involved Putz. It would seem logical that other teams would line up to top each other's offer.

Go Fo Broke!

by eknpdx on Dec 4, 2006 7:39 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Giving up Putz?
mmmmm....I don't like that part. But GAAWWWWD it would be fun to have Manny's bat. Lowry would be a must in that deal.

by anotherjeff on Dec 4, 2006 7:47 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

If Putz is gone, then Soriano simply becomes
the closer.

Yeah, he wouldn't be as awesome and as dominating as Putz, but Manny's walks and bombs would more than make up for that.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 7:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Manny would be awesome...
But the bullpen would be crippled losing Putz and Lowe.

I'm not sure I want to see that much more of Mateo.

by Happybelly on Dec 4, 2006 7:56 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It wouldn't be crippled.
It'd still be a solid pen, just not as good as we thought it was going to be.

Plus, if there's one things the Mariners have shown they are good at, it's finding good relievers. And there is help on the way in the minors.

It's well worth it.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 8:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure how solid it would be
Who would be the setup guy with Putz gone and Lowe out? Soriano's health issues are somewhat of a concern to me as well.

I do agree that they've been good at finding relievers and do have some solid arms in the minors.

I would probably do the deal, Manny is too good to pass up. I just hate losing JJ.

by Happybelly on Dec 4, 2006 8:06 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

good points
If Soriano goes down to an injury (hes not exactly a picture of health) we become very average IMO.

I would love to see Huber get more high leverage innings, but we know they will go to Mateo.

If Raffy went down, I would assume Sherrill would step in.

WIN IT FOR RAFFY!!!

by MFAN on Dec 4, 2006 8:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

We still have Sherrill
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 8:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If there's one thing I've learned...
...it's that the M's actually have quite a bit of bullpen depth.  They've got guys in their system that might not work out as starters right away, but they very likely could be very effective out of the bullpen.  

Fruto will be better than he was. Feierabend could be eased into the rotation by starting in the 'pen.  Lowe could return.  There's a ton of options for filling out those innings.  Losing Putz would definitely hurt.  But for the gain of Manny, it's a no-brainer for me...

Are we there yet?

by PositivePaul on Dec 4, 2006 8:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Ho. Ly. Cow.
If this is anywhere close to becoming reality, sign me up for the 'yea' crowd!  Sexson + Putz + Jones + another minor leaguer for Lowry and Ramirez would be FANTASTIC!  Manny could DH, leaving Raul in LF, putting Lowry into the rotation, and letting the closer's role be up for grabs (with a huge nod towards Soriano for the pole position).  

That would make me a very happy camper.  Of course, I'd like to keep Reed around as Ichiro flight insurance.  And that would make Broussard the first baseman, likely.  

Fill a hole in the rotation, getting some trade value out of our bullpen stockpile, and swapping a semi-star with a HOFer would be a HUGE step forward for Seattle.

Are we there yet?

by PositivePaul on Dec 4, 2006 7:56 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'd do it
but man I'd hate to lose JJ.  Not just because of his dominance, but because he was ours.  I really don't feel like listening to my red sox friends brag about how good Putz is.

If we get Lowry I'd do that.  As much as we love JJ, Soriano can step into the closers role with a pretty low drop off from Putz.  And like everyone has said...its Manny!!

This would all be so much easier if Lowe was healthy.

WIN IT FOR RAFFY!!!

by MFAN on Dec 4, 2006 8:00 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

but just think
you can tell all your Sox fan friends (they are obnoxious, I know) how dumb they were to let go of Manny.  

4 years from now though, they might be pretty chipper about their CF Jones who is hitting 35 home runs every year.  

by LC on Dec 4, 2006 10:08 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

good point
if manny gets us a ring...I wont complain.

actually if he just gets us to the playoffs I wont complain.

WIN IT FOR RAFFY!!!

by MFAN on Dec 4, 2006 10:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Evem if it's a good deal
or a great deal, parting with Putz would be really tough.

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 8:04 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sorry
I wouldn't give up Jones even by himself for Manny. And there's no way Boston would do that, anyway.

I'm not even sure if I'd take Manny for free if it meant four-year guaranteed contract.

by Josh on Dec 4, 2006 8:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Are you crazy?
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 8:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Nope, he's not.
Quick quiz: can Manny play CF?

Second question: can you think of any potential Mariner free agents who are going to make $Texas if they resign next year, considering what Juan Pierre, Brian Roberts and Gary Matthews Jr. just got?

We're gonna NEED cheap young players in the years to come if we takeon boat anchor contracts like Manny's and/or resign Ichiro. Jones

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

By that
I mean I dont know what to think of it.  If Lowry was involved, it might not be too bad, but that's an awful lot of talent given up.  

by chrisisasavage on Dec 4, 2006 8:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
Heard that a little while ago. If ever there were a strong indication of just how willing Bavasi is to move Richie Sexson, there you go.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

On the one hand
Manny and Lowry is awesome.

But Putz, it's just hard to lose him, especially to the Red Sox whose fans didn't even want to acknowledge his awesomeness last year. I've been a Putz fan since he was brought up (even when he was giving up gopher balls, although I never expected him to become this awesome). I just, I dunno. It'd be sickening to listen to Bill Simmons gush about Putz after insinuating he was a roider last season.

Sexson is whatever, and Jones kinda feels like the next Jose Cruz Jr to me to a degree, although he's in reality probably nothing like him.

Baseball is a funny game.

by bluemax on Dec 4, 2006 8:17 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I know what you mean.
Putz quickly became probably my favorite Mariner. I think the M's are doing pretty well for themselves in that rumored three-way but I'd really really really like to hang onto Putz if at all possible. Give 'em Soriano and, I dunno, Rob Johnson instead.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yup
My thoughts exactly.  

Hey, maybe the Red Sox would be willing to throw in Craig Hansen?  Probably not.  

by Jerry on Dec 4, 2006 8:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Manny and the No-Trade Clause
Fact #1:  Manny has a no trade clause.
Fact #2:  Manny is currently guaranteed $18 million next year and $20 million in 2008.  ($4 million of each salary is deferred until 2011 at the earliest).  He gets $1 million if traded.
Fact #3:  Manny has two club options at $20 million each for 2009 and 2010.

Manny being Manny and all, speculation has that to waive his no-trade clause Manny would require one or both club options to be picked up.  Two years of Manny are great, but that third and fourth year (ages 37 and 38) don't look so hot.

by Trev on Dec 4, 2006 8:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I dunno about that.
Ordinarily I'd agree with you, and that's a huge commitment, but I think Manny Ramirez is an exception to the no-big-contracts-to-aging-players methodology. He's been the exact same player his entire career, never showing any signs of slowing down. Eventually he'll begin getting worse, but he has a long way to fall, and I'm not convinced that we'll see that start for a little while yet.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:25 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Moving him to Safeco would be the way to do that.
I'd take Manny in a deal for the right players, even if Safeco kills him. It's just that Adam Jones isn't one of them.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Manny would probably survive here.
Sexson does, after all. And what of Jones? Safeco's going to kill him.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cameron still got some decent numbers in here.
And Jones may be better than Cameron. Eric Davis got some pretty nice numbers in a tougher environment than today's AL (the 80's NL, pre-Coors).

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Cameron never hit at home.
And if we establish Mike Cameron as Adam Jones' reasonable upside (add a few runs on offense, subtract a few on defense), you'd have a hard time convincing me not to trade him for Manny.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd put him in a range from Cammy to Eric Davis.
And Eric Davis healthy in CF is a slam dunk no brainer over Manny, because Davis could field very well AND hit the ball.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'll grant you
that Adam Jones at his absolute peak would be the more valuable player, but what are the chances of that happening? 10%? 20%? I think in this case you have to play the odds, and if you get burned down the road, at least you got burned for a superstar instead of Victor Zambrano.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Silly Duquette.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 8:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but there's the minor matter...
...that Manny's the World's Best Hitter and The World's Most Expensive DH.

This isn't a case where you're getting unexploited value. You're paying through the nose for your elite hitter.

So, OK, if this is  a great deal Bavasi to make that it's very easy to see why he'll win it, why is Theo Epstein stupid enough to make it? What's his angle?

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 9:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Epstein's angle
Would you trade Manny Ramirez for JD Drew, ~$12m, and 2-3 real good, cheap young players?

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, duh.
So why are we getting rid of the good young players and adding Manny (and essentially doing the exact opposite of what Theo is doing), if we could have theoretically signed Drew and KEPT those players and thus been in exactly the same position Theo will be after this trade is done?

If Theo wants to dump his overpaid DH to clear some salary space, he can damn well pay us for the privilege and get prime prospects, or take lesser prospects. This is ESPECIALLY true if the booby prize is Manny Ramirez cashing 20 million checks fromus at ages 37 and 38.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 9:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Because Drew doesn't want to play here.
We could also try to add Barry Bonds instead of Manny Ramirez and save our young players in the process, but that scenario has complications of its own.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Manny seems to me to be one of those
players that would age very very very well.

Look at the numbers Edgar put up at age 37 and 38. Manny is obviously a better hitter than Edgar, so he could probably do even better than that.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 8:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Wouldn't Boston give some money though?
It's not out of the realm of possibilities.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 8:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Shit
Wow.  

That is one hell of a trade rumor.  

I would hate to see Jones and Putz go, but Lowry and Manny would be a pretty sweet package.  

Wow.  

One question: Suppose that this package was acceptable to all parties, and the deal was waiting on the M's.  Would a deal of Lowry for Sexson straight up be a better deal?  

I am just wondering.  

But Manny would be pretty sweet.  

Also, why would Manny necessarily have to play LF for the M's at all?  Couldn't they stick him at DH, move Ibanez to 1B, and have Snelling in LF?  That seems like the best overall lineup to me, although it is quite righthanded.  

Wow.  That is a pretty crazy rumor.  

Aren't the winter meetings fun?  Even if this doesn't go down, it is still fun to talk about.  

by Jerry on Dec 4, 2006 8:26 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Simple Answers to Simple Questions.
Would a deal of Lowry for Sexson straight up be a better deal?

Yes.

This has been another edition of Simple Answers to Simple Questions.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:29 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

No.
My prediction- Adam Jones will be worth more than Manny by the time Manny's original contract is up, when you factor in salaries and defense. And that's BEFORE any extension Manny insists on having guaranteed as a result of the deal come into play. (BTW- isn't Manny a 5/10?) Pass.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sold on that.
If you evaluate prospects only by their upside, then you'll never want to let them go. I think Jones is going to be a pretty good player, but when you have the opportunity to deal a lot of potential for a lot of guaranteed talent, you have to take it. Manny Ramirez is a Hall of Fame bat who still has a lot of gas in his tank, and, to me, Jones would have to reach his absolute ceiling to have the same value.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:34 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Right...
...except Manny has zero defensive value, and this is arguably the worst place in the universe for him to play half his games. I think you could not DESIGN a situation meant to get less value out of Manny than the M's have at Safeco. That doesn't mean I wouldn't take him, but consider this:

Assuming the team signs Schmidt, we're going to have 50 million in payroll this year tied up in:

Manny Ramirez: age 35
Jason Schmidt: age 34
Ichiro Suzuki: age 33
Jarrod Washburn: age 32

Add in Beltre and Ibañez and that's 70 million, easy.

Under those circumstances, resigning Ichiro is criminally negligent for your franchise (because you'll be tying up an obscene amount of money in longterm contracts, and putting yourself at extreme risk of being the Baltimore Orioles or NY Mets of a few years ago), and you've already dumped your young CF prospect who could play cheap. And don't forget Lopez and Betancourt will want arby raises before too long as well.

The more I look at it, the more I suspect Ichiro and Manny are mutually exclusive options, unless you DON'T sign Schmidt.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That's a definite concern
although I wonder if the Mariners would keep after Schmidt if they landed Ramirez.

I don't think the situation would be as dire as the Orioles' was so many years ago, but it would have to be navigated carefully, and the organization would need to be able to trust its young, cheap players to produce for a while until some of that money goes away.

At the same time, though, we're already currently paying Sexson, Ichiro, Washburn, Beltre, and Ibanez, so it's not like this is creating a whole new problem - subtract Schmidt and it's actually relieving it a little bit, since Manny's a much better investment than Sexson is.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Giving up on Schmidt
has to be in their plans if they get Lowry.

Which makes me think that the talk could be aimed more at getting Schmidt's asking price to drop than actually pulling the triggers on moving guys like Sexson, Putz, Jones, Manny.

by david h on Dec 4, 2006 9:10 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

oops
meant to emphasize that it "has" to be in the plans, but instead I made it look like a full quote.

by david h on Dec 4, 2006 9:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Thing is...
"the organization would need to be able to trust its young, cheap players to produce for a while until some of that money goes away."

You mean like Adam Jones? Or did you have any other cheap OF'ers in mind who look like they'll be ready in the next year or two?

Also, Manny adds at least 1 more year on top of Sexson, probably three, because he likely insists on options becoming guaranteed or vetoes a deal based on 5/10 rights (which he does have). Granted, he's a better player (which is why a deal that essentially becomes Sexson for Manny is a no-brainer for me,even with some kids involved,though extra years past 2008 make it less palatable). I'm just REALLY not interested in dumping Jones at this point, unless Manny comes with lots of cash so I can buy a replacement CF.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 9:11 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well hey, what about
keeping Reed in Tacoma for a year to see if he can re-discover his swing? Cheap, adequate, plays center, left-handed bat...

Reed's got one foot out the door, but he's not gone yet, and he still may stick after all.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

So why isn't Reed+ adequate return for Manny?
Especially if we're sending them NO salary in any deal.

A-Rod fetched Soriano AND a bunch of cash in return, for Pete's sake, and Soriano made 7.5 million.

It sounds to me that Epstein's angle is that he thinks he's going to play therole of Branch Rickey and risk making a trade a year early instead of a year late. As such, I don't think he's paying NEARLY enough for the privilege of ridding himself of a 20+ dollar salary.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 9:36 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

The asking price will come down.
If it doesn't, then we won't have to worry about anything, because Manny'll stay put.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Manny is...
Coming up on 35 years old.

Does this not worry anyone else?  I know he's a first ballot HOF'er, but there's got to be a potential for decline, right?

Granted, he won't fall to replacement level or anything.  But if he goes from amazing to just good, at the price of $20M no less, the loss of Putz and Jones will really, really hurt.

It also seems like too many eggs in one basket -- if Manny gets hurt significantly, then guess what?  We gave up our best prospect, the best closer in baseball and $20M for an ass on the bench.  OUCH.

ALSO, what if he walks after two years?  We gave up all of that for just two years of Manny?  Because honestly, I could totally see him wanting to jump into the nutso free agency waters.

by oneiric232 on Dec 4, 2006 8:28 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

What if Adam Jones becomes Jeremy Reed?
I've seen enough Mariners prospects become nothing (albeit mostly pitchers) to know they aren't sure things.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 8:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

A lot of people were down on Lopez last year, too.
Look, it doesn't mean jack if you don't hit at 21 for your first couple hundred plate appearances. See Aramis Ramirez or Miguel Tejada's career.

Like I said, go look at the contracts people have been handing out to CF's like Juan Pierre- and figure Ichiro for $15-20 million next year, easy.(Especially if Manny's making $20+ here.)

I think we'd better be thinking REALLY hard before coughing up prime prospects to Theo Epstein for a guy he tried to waive two years ago- and nobody took the bait on.

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 9:04 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What happened two years ago doesn't matter.
Adam Jones is a talented young player with a lot of power, decent defense, limited on-base potential, and a swing that's going to get eaten alive in Seattle. He's a damn good prospect, but he's not on the level of an Alex Gordon or something. Given the opportunity to trade that for a certainty, I think you need to do it and deal with the future CF issue when it comes around. Worse comes to worse and there are always stopgaps like Kenny Lofton looking for one-year contracts.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not judging him based on 100 ABs
He's just not a sure thing.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 9:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Then
Seriously, no one is a sure thing. What are you judging him on, aside from a few ABs, that makes you think he's unsure enough?

by Josh on Dec 4, 2006 10:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I'd rather have a proven player than him.
Fair enough?
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 10:18 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

While
Paying said proven player ~$20m/year for four years, and giving up more than Jones?

by Josh on Dec 4, 2006 10:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Whatever
I'll just defer that Adam Jones will be the greatest outfielder of all time.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 10:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I was being serious though
I don't feel that it's such a good deal all things considered, and that's why I was looking for your thoughts in light of that.

by Josh on Dec 4, 2006 10:32 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I only like it
if Lowry is included. I think Manny's a big boost to the offense but it doesn't make sense to acquire him if we keep Sexson at his cost, especially since Boston already has Youk at first.. By dealing Sexson (in this hypothetical Ramirez/Lowry/Putz, etc. deal) we gain only a little salary for the next two years and it gives us a cheap young talented pitcher to boot.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 10:43 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

All right
I don't see Lowry for Sexson straight up happening though. It would be theft, even if Lowry is no better than 2006. If that were really the case, as said by others, I'd just do that and leave the Manny deal alone.

When you look at it in isolation, getting Manny for the rumored deal makes very little sense.

by Josh on Dec 4, 2006 11:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Putz
I like Putz.  

But I think that biggest loss in this deal could be Adam Jones.  He is a much better prospect than people in the mainstream prospect pundits seem to acknowledge, mainly because the M's have rushed him at a breakneck pace through the minors.  

Losing Putz would be a bummer, but relievers just aren't that hard to develop.  At this time last year, Putz was a very mediocre pitcher.  

If the M's did pull the trigger on that deal, they could probably go after a guy like Octavio Dotel to hedge their bets.  He is healthy and looking for a job where he can close.  Bring him in, and, with Soriano, the M's would still be OK with power relievers.  

You know what?  The more I think about this, the more sense it makes.  

by Jerry on Dec 4, 2006 8:34 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

What a name
The Mariners weren't able to sign a pitcher Monday but they met with several teams and representatives of a handful of free agents in their suite at the Walt Disney World Swan and Dolphin Resort outside Orlando.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 8:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

By the way, in case you missed it
this is what Dave had to say about the rumor:
Okay, so here's the deal - the names being banded about are wrong, but the concept is true. It's also pretty unlikely. Boston still wants the moon.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:37 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

One can only hope
Soriano replaces Putz and, um, well, I guess we don't have anyone slightly worse than Jones.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 8:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Sure, they can have Jones.
Send $20 million cash with Manny, make it so I don't have to guarantee his options, and make him a $10 million player for 2 years? Sure thing. Here's Jones.

Oh, don't like that, Theo? Too bad, so sad. You can have Jeremy Reed, then. Here, I'll toss in Michael Wilson, too. Or maybe you'd like Wlad Balantien?

by eponymous coward on Dec 4, 2006 8:58 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Theo sez
"Okay, then, I'll send you Kyle Snyder instead."

by Gomez on Dec 4, 2006 9:14 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If we come out of this
With Manny, LaRoche, and Lowry I'm getting a Bavasi tattoo on my ass.

by Garces on Dec 4, 2006 8:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

BOLLOCKS!
This is really tough.

Sexson i care snot about. Shedding his salary as part of this deal means we're effectively replacing him with Manny for two years for 4 mil more, which rocks. Then it gets expensive. But Putz? Pork that.

Adam Jones I'd rather hang on to as well, but if Putz is out of the equation I'm still ok with it.  

Here's a question. All this noise about getting a HOF bat and so on and so forth. What about Bonds? He wouldn't be paid as much, and he wouldn't get more than two years, max. Now, I hate the little motherfister as much as the next guy, but if it had to be him or Manny, and Putz is gone in the Manny scenario, well, I think I'd go for Bonds.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 4, 2006 8:43 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Sure, I would too.
But the front office doesn't share our opinion.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 8:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose
that shedding Sexson is a pretty crucial part of all of this.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 4, 2006 8:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

MANNY BEING MANNY
Eh, big bat, big contract, big deal.  Dunno why, I can't get excited about Manny rumors.  It's like the story of the boy who cried Wolf (no, not Randy), and it feels like it's been going on for years and years.  You know, two days from now there'll be another rumor of "Manny hates coffee, fish, Ballard, and everything else about the Pacific Northwest."

I really like Adam LaRoche and Noah Lowry, though.

Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Dec 4, 2006 8:44 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

About Noah
What's to like about him? I haven't looked at his MiLB stats, but last year he was kinda not so good. His K rate nearly halved. Was he injured, did he get scouted, or is this just a fluke?

by Bearskin Rugburn on Dec 4, 2006 8:51 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Very Very Injured
He apparently had little in the way of injury history before this seasons, but this season he missed a start with "irritation in his left elbow", plus a strained oblique (back).  

Take a good look at those health reports Bavasi.

by Trev on Dec 4, 2006 9:44 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

This is all so exciting.
I'm refreshing about a half a dozen sites like crazy even though if anything does go down, it probably won't be for a few days.
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 9:10 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Nothing's going down tonight.
You can probably relax until tomorrow morning, at which point I expect our servers to resume taking a beating.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:12 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

If this deal does go down
The entire Mariners blogosphere may explode.
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 9:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

HAHA
USSM had to close comments because of this.

by Gomez on Dec 4, 2006 9:15 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Actually
I believe USSM got attacked.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 9:16 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

O RLY?
I wonder who'd have it out for them that bad.

by Gomez on Dec 4, 2006 9:23 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

I know of people who don't like them at all.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 9:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah
I can think of at least [zero]

by Slozbury Stouvre on Dec 4, 2006 10:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, they aren't in the blogging community
I don't know of anyone in the blogging community either.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 4, 2006 10:57 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It was a joke
Kind of a stretch, but a joke nonetheless

by Slozbury Stouvre on Dec 5, 2006 12:00 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

*puke*
Mariners interested in Zito

Dear god, let it be a Boras ploy.

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 9:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I dunno
If we're going to grossly overpay for pitching anyway (Schmidt), we should at least get someone young and durable.

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 9:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Are you saying
Schmidt is better than Zito?

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 9:52 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Whatever Zito does
it works and its repeatable. He's gotten consistently good results in 5.5 of the 6.5 years he's been in the majors. What's wrong with that?

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 10:00 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Jarrod Washburn syndrome
He nearly walks more batters than Gil Meche and Matt Thornton combined, and his K rate is Baekian. Zito is the most overrated pitcher in the major leagues.

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 10:13 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Washburn had one good year
and several mediocre ones. Zito has several good years and one mediocre one. Are you saying he's just happened to get super lucky almost every year?

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 10:17 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Pretty much
Go look at his numbers beyond ERA and tell me you don't reach the same conclusion.

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 10:20 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well
his WHIP last year wasn't so hot, but it's been excellent in his other good years. His K/9 is around 6 or 7 every year. His walks are high, but he usually makes up for it by giving up very few hits.

I agree he's overrated, but since everyone on this market is also overrated, it's not necessarily worse than signing a guy like Schmidt.

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 10:27 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

and you think
Barry Zito maintaining a .250 BABIP is a repeatable skill? Because 2001, 2002, 2004, and 2006 say hello.

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 10:30 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Possibly
He throws a lot of big breaking balls, which would be less likely to go places when hit.

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 10:35 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Again
2001, 2, 4, and 6 say hello to you. Check his BABIPs in those years. (Hint: Not .250)

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 10:39 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Zito is very, very overrated
but I'm convinced that he does something that allows him to consistently beat his peripherals. His line drive rate is almost always below the average.

That said, something working in his favor so far has been his high infield fly/fly ball rate, a function of Oakland's huge foul territory. Leaving that is going to hurt. Same with the outfield dimensions. Best-case scenario is that he's a low- to mid-4's ERA pitcher over the life of his contract.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 4, 2006 10:33 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well his huge curveball
does lower his mean BABIP rate. He gets lots and lots of called strikes vs swinging strikes, and the stylized fact around that is that pitchers who rely heavily on called strikes will tend to have lower BABIPs than the standard .300 norm.

THAT BEING SAID,
Zito's mean BABIP, while not .300 isn't .250, it's probably something like .280-5. And a decent portion of that is likely pitching in Oakland's vast foul territory.

You take him out of Oakland, return his BABIP to a .285-.290 rate, and drop his LOB% back to down to established levels (~71%) and you have a guy who is going ot give you an ERA closer to 5 than 4.

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 10:42 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

That same article says the Mariners
would likely not be willing to go past 4 years. And the Mets and Rangers IIRC are offering 6 years.

Even if they are interested(which hopefully they aren't) they wouldn't get him anyways.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 9:40 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

It's probably a couple things
Schmidt's camp are being stubborn asses and trying to force the M's to bid against themselves right now. They're not.

Boras wants to get Zito a 6 year deal. The Rangers are the only team showing some interest and Zito doesn't necessarily want to pitch there. The Mets are out for now, as are the Yankees and Dodgers. Zito's losing suitors with his stupid demands. Having an AL West competitor enter the mix might just make Texas panic and the M's might not worry about Zito going to Texas with that park and that heat.

Now ask this; at similar money and similar years, who has the better chance of posting consistent numbers?

It's smart on multiple levels for the M's to get involved.

by Trent on Dec 4, 2006 10:03 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

its smart if its to drive up the price for Texas
but I want no part of Zito at any length or price.

You know who had better FIPs and xFIPs than Zito? Jarrod Washburn.

Barry Zito has been sliding downhill since 2001 and the only reason his ERA hasn't followed is insanely good luck on BABIP in 2005 (.~250) followed by insanely good luck on LOB% in 2006 (78+%)

I would rather have Gil Meche over Barry Zito at similar cost and length.

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 10:19 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Oh, we're on the same page
I think this is a very large smoke screen on multiple levels. Schmidt is still the better option

by Trent on Dec 4, 2006 10:47 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

But
As Jeff noted above, Zito has consistently gotten better results than his peripherals would indicate, and has done so long enough to believe it is due to skill.  Washburn and Meche, not so much.  By now, we can expect Zito to just about always have a better ERA than FIP and xFIP.

Career LOB%: 74.9
Career BABIP: .269
Years w/ BABIP over .300: 0

by david h on Dec 4, 2006 10:49 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

career numbers are far inferior
for projection purposes than looking at the past say 3 seasons and furthermore simply because you've tossed 7 heads out of the last 10 doesn't mean you have a 70% success rate at flipping heads.

by Matthew on Dec 4, 2006 11:37 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Well
.240   78.9%
.294   73.5%
.254   80.7%
.248   71.8%
.300   71.2%
.252   72.2%
.280   78.5%

it's more like flipping a coin 700 times, getting 70% heads, and then doing 6 more sets of 700 and getting close to 70% each time.  At that point, I'd consider possibility that that maybe this guy knows how to flip coins.  I certainly wouldn't bet on tails.

Since Zito is inducing outs and not flipping coins, I'm even more inclined to allow that this guy knows what he's doing, since I think we can all agree a person has a better chance of beating the odds as a pitcher than as a coin flipper.  We know there are people who consistently beat their peripherals (Knuckleballers, Tom Glavine), and there are people who will do worse than them (Joel Pineiro), and it is not due to luck but due to their particular skills (or lack).

I agree that Zito is not worth the boatload of mony he'll get, and am glad the Rangers might be the ones to give it to him.  I just think you cannot look only at FIP and xFIP and know what a pitcher will give you.

by david h on Dec 5, 2006 2:05 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

guh
nobody is just looking at FIP.

For reference, the following stats were brought up in this thread alone:
BB rate
K rate
HR rate
Hit rate
IF/F rate
BABIP
LOB%

EVERY SINGLE ONE OF THEM points to Zito
A) being mediocre/average
B) having a luck driven ERA in 2005 and 2006.

Oh, and you're BABIP data is wrong. Furthermore, Barry Zito's good BABIP years aren't even that good in context. He had fantastic defenses behind him those years. The years he didn't shock his BABIP spiked. Barry Zito beats his team average BABIP by about 5-10 points a year. That's it.

Barry Zito is not a consistent .250 BABIP guy. He's a consistent .280 BABIP guy who has played in a favorable park and in front of some favorable defenses.

by Matthew on Dec 5, 2006 10:48 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

You can tell
He's not particularly good anymore just by watching him play. None of this statsy nonsense :P.

by Graham on Dec 6, 2006 12:58 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Dude
I was responding to you, not everyone else in the thread.  You were going on and on about FIP, xFIP, BABIP, and LOB%, so I responded to those.  That's all.

Again, I agree that Zito is not a top shelf starter.  I just think you are overstating his mediocrity, especially by focusing on peripherals over which it appears he has more control than most pitchers.

by david h on Dec 6, 2006 8:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

What?
I was going "on and on" about FIP and xFIP? Really? Did I post while blacked out and then they got deleted? Because I went back and looked and here's my ONLY reference to FIP and xFIP:

You know who had better FIPs and xFIPs than Zito? Jarrod Washburn.

I mean, gee, I didn't know the standard for "on and on" was so low now.

And you completely missed the point. I'm conceding Barry Zito has better BABIP and LOB% than most pitchers. You are ignoring that EVEN IF you grant him nominal improvement over standard rates there, that he still posted fluke ERA seasons in 2005 and 2006. Barry Zito is now, under normal circumstances, at best a low to mid 4 ERA pitcher.

by Matthew on Dec 6, 2006 8:48 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Please No
I am really not interested in a guy like Manny.  I am not talking about hitting here, because he is one of the best around, of course.  I am talking about everything else!  He can't field (or doesn't want to).  He can't run the bases (or doesn't want to).  He can't get his act together enough to urinate at the right time...
He doesn't even want to DH, so it isn't wise to pencil him in there...
He isn't likely to waive his no-trade to come here.  But let's say he does, and he does so because he likes Hargrove.  CRAP!, why do we want that kind of relationship?  The team's biggest flake married with the manager we all want fired??!!...
No thanks.

by KC on Dec 4, 2006 9:58 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Zito + Broussard = guitar jamming
Get out your flannels

by Egaas on Dec 4, 2006 10:01 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Maybe we can trade for Spiezio
and bring Scott Radinsky out of retirement so we can have a full band!

Wait, did I just put those two in the same sentence? Pulley >>>>>>>>>>>>> Sandfrog

by Slozbury Stouvre on Dec 4, 2006 10:59 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

My man Bavasi:
"I'd say with Richie and Adrian [Beltre], they're brought up more," Bavasi said. "We get a lot of hits on both of them. But we're trying to get better ... not worse. We have not seriously entertained one inquiry on those guys."

by KC on Dec 4, 2006 11:38 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

According to Baker in the Times...
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/sports/2003462175_mari05.html

Try Putz, Jones AND Clement.

AND a pony.

And the source code to Windows Vista.

Clearly Theo wants to see who's going to fall for this. No thanks.

by eponymous coward on Dec 5, 2006 1:32 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Woa, now we're crossing the line.
The Dodgers said no to Boston's crazy offer, and I'm pretty sure the M's won't go for something like that either.

The price either has to come down, or he isn't going anywhere.

Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 5, 2006 1:40 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Swap Clement with Rob Johnson
and I still do it.  I'd prefer to give up Soriano, but whatever...Putz/Jones/Johnson is a good enogh package.

by BrettJMiller on Dec 5, 2006 2:14 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Clement is probably the player they want the most.
They don't really need Jones.  Putz can be rotated with Soriano.  But my guess is that they crave Clement.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 5, 2006 8:47 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

NOOOOOOOOO
I don't care if he's sucked it up in the last few months, JEFF CLEMENT SHOULD NOT BE GOING ANYWHERE GODDAMNIT.  Unlike Windows Vista, his bugs have a chance at being fixed by next year.
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Dec 5, 2006 2:16 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Heh.
To quote Ralph: "I'm walking away!"

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 5, 2006 7:34 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Yep.
And we'd counter with "Okay, so Manny and $40 million, then..."
Are we there yet?

by PositivePaul on Dec 5, 2006 8:27 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Rotoworld says Sexson AND Beltre offered for Manny
Manny Ramirez could be traded to the Dodgers or Mariners on Wednesday, according to an ESPN Deportes reports.
The report states that the Dodgers are willing to part with Brad Penny and two prospects, while the Mariners have offered both Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre. There's little chance of the Red Sox taking back both players from the Mariners, but they could conceivably take one along with J.J. Putz.

Source: ESPN Deportes

I can't imagine Boston having a need for Sexson but with Lowell getting old it's not hard to imagine them coveting Beltre...

Given that our current back-up third baseman is Willie Boom-Boom I'm feeling somewhat worried at this present moment.

by Alex B on Dec 6, 2006 9:27 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, but Putz and Sexson?
What's the hold up?

I'm having trouble believing this. It doesn't make sense for the Red Sox.

by Jeff Sullivan on Dec 6, 2006 9:30 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

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