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The Good And Bad Of Jose Guillen

First, the good:

I don't got truly no respect for [Scioscia] anymore because I'm still hurt from what happened last year . . . Mike Scioscia, to me, is like a piece of garbage . . . He can go to hell . . . I can never get over about what happened last year. It's something I'm never going to forget. Any time I play that team, Mike Scioscia's managing, it's always going to be personal to me.

Jeremy Reed's always treated the Angels like a group of 25 guys who all slept with his underachieving left-handed girlfriend, but he's not going to be around much longer, so I'm glad Bavasi was able to add someone who hates them even more. It's about time we start getting some players who're as into this rivalry as I am. Jose Guillen may be a bit of an asshole with lousy English (the "College: None" in his profile shouldn't come as much of a surprise), but as long as he's focusing all that anger on the opposition 19 times a year, it'll be hard for me to complain.

The best part is that, back in 2005 when Scioscia and Frank Robinson exchanged antiquated verbal thrashings after Brendan Donnelly was found to be cheating, Guillen was the guy who told Robinson to have the umpire look at Donnelly's glove. I can get on board with that sort of thing. Guillen played for Anaheim in 2004 and was presumably made well aware of the fact that Donnelly has to break the rules to succeed, so the minute Donnelly took the hill the next year Guillen used that insight to his team's advantage, sending Mike Scioscia into a tizzy. Granted, Scioscia whines if his toast is too dark, but that's still one of my favorite sights to behold in all of baseball, right up there with a JJ Putz strikeout and Julio Mateo collapsing in the bullpen. Jose Guillen's going to get up for these games against the Angels, and damned if that won't light a fire under at least a handful of the other guys.

Now the bad:

An excited-sounding Jose Guillen was celebrating with friends and family in the Dominican Republic on Saturday night after reaching a one-year deal to become the new Mariners' right fielder...Guillen said the idea is for him to become the team's full-time right fielder, with Ichiro shifting to center..."It's to play in right field," he said. "All of the discussions we had were about me being in right field."

I imagine a party with Jose Guillen involves Tecate by the gallon, militant graffiti, and at least one guy getting stabbed. Anyway, given that right field can only accomodate one player at a time, Guillen being there means that Chris Snelling isn't. Guillen's a good defensive outfielder (with an awesome arm if it's healthy) and he brings a right-handed bat to the table, but Snelling's the most patient hitter on the team, and reducing his role costs the team runs. You can't really slide him to DH either, not as long as Broussard's hanging around, so something has to give, and I don't want it to be Snelling's playing time.

There are ways to make this work. Trading Broussard and making Snelling the everyday DH saves about $3.5m, adds a prospect, and keeps Snelling from hurting himself in the field. Alternatively, you keep the roster intact and use Snelling as a DH/LF/RF supersub, collecting 300 at bats or so as tenth hitter. It's not ideal, but it's better than giving those AB's to Willie Ballgame.

I'd love it if Guillen were here to DH against lefties and spell Ibanez/Snelling in the corners, but if Bavasi promised him a starting job, then he wouldn't take too kindly to a demotion, and the last thing we need is for Guillen to flip out in April. After all, the chances of him murdering someone I like are far greater than the chances of him murdering someone I don't.

I suppose we should've known from the $5m guaranteed salary that Guillen wasn't here to be a semi-regular. He's going to start, and that makes me a little less happy about this than I was last night. Still, though, I like it. If he's healthy - and there's no reason why he shouldn't be, after a successful surgery - he's going to hit for power, and should he begin to struggle, then we already have a more than capable replacement on hand. And as last year's experience with Carl Everett showed, the front office isn't afraid to cut someone who isn't doing his job (even if they're a little slower on the draw than we would've preferred). The advantage of one-year contracts is that if Guillen and Thomson don't perform, they're gone. In that respect the risk is low, even if the starting situation come Opening Day isn't perfect.

At this point it looks like Guillen's going to start, but Snelling's still going to get his at bats, even if Broussard sticks around. As far as I can tell, there'll be an inverse relationship between Guillen's production and Snelling's playing time, so either way we should be happy. We just need to know that Hargrove won't be afraid to take action if Guillen sucks, but that's a whole other can of worms.

Since coming to better understand Mike Hargrove's incompetence, I've believed that Bill Bavasi has two primary jobs as GM: (1) improve the roster, and (2) make it idiot-proof. Adding Guillen accomplishes the former, but only partially addresses the latter. If this is going to work out as well as we all want it to, then barring a trade it's on Hargrove to figure out the best way to manage the Snelling situation. Cross your fingers.

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I'm optimistic that
Snelling isn't going to see a dip in PAs from what we could have reasonably expected for 2007. Snelling, in 2007, was never going to be a 150 game starter. I think, barring injury, that he breaks 400 PAs.

by Matthew on Dec 3, 2006 9:13 AM PST   0 recs

And when you think about it
it's probably pretty silly to rely on Snelling to hold down an everyday job, anyway.

If Snelling survives 2007 without a single DL stint, then I'll be outraged if he isn't guaranteed a starting job the next season. Right now I'm just mildly annoyed.

by Jeff on Dec 3, 2006 9:26 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

My system thinks
Snelling gets 550 plate appearances. Then again, I told him he would start RF for a season, and I think it underestimates his injury risk (it does that for -everyone- and I don't know why). Need to fiddle with it again.

by Graham on Dec 3, 2006 12:15 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Wow
I wish I had a system.  

I should get on that.  

by Jerry on Dec 3, 2006 2:26 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

OF Defense upgrade
Also quite important to note. I don't have figures for Guillen's range (someone want to go back and look up his PMR?), but his arm values are as follows from 2002-5: -1.0, +8.6, +4.4, +1.6. His mean is 2.6 and his 95% interval is [-0.7, 5.4] making him the 12th highest rated OF arm among players with over 1,000 plays in that timeframe.

by Matthew on Dec 3, 2006 9:46 AM PST   0 recs

Guillen's PMR:
  1. +6.12 outs, RF (short season)
  2. -1.89 outs, RF
  3. -2.40 outs, LF
  4. +7.00 outs, LF/RF
UZR thinks he was the best defensive RF in baseball from 2000-2003, +22 runs per 162 games, +4 with the arm. I'm skeptical that he was ever that good, but still, it's an encouraging history.

by Jeff on Dec 3, 2006 9:55 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Defensive alignment
I agree with everything Jeff had to say about the concerns over where people will play.  

But I was hoping for a much different situation.  The best way forward, IMO, is to move Broussard or Sexson.  Obviously, moving Sexson would be ideal, but just getting one of those guys off the roster would be the way forward.  

Then, move Ibanez to DH and stick Snelling in LF.  

That would be the best defensive alignment.  Ibanez could be moved into LF every once in a while to spell Snelling and keep him healthy.  

Beyond that, I would love to see the M's call Tampa Bay about Elijah Dukes.  He could come in and be that super-4th-OFer.  With Guillen and Snelling both having recent (and/or chronic) injury problems, getting Dukes 300-400 ABs wouldn't be that tough.  

by Jerry on Dec 3, 2006 10:03 AM PST   0 recs

Well
we can't be sure that Ibanez will stay in LF

Its still very possible that he moves to DH

by Scruffy Lefty on Dec 3, 2006 10:32 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Elijah Dukes
and Jose Guillen on the same team? Please God, no.

by JLC on Dec 3, 2006 11:06 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

We really don't have
room I think for another OF to get 300-400 ABs.  I'd rather get a good backup catch to give Kenji a break every once in a while.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2006 11:11 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Your rite
300 ab's is not going to be there for another OF unless injury.

by ZeZetheX on Dec 3, 2006 11:18 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Exactly
"300 ab's is not going to be there for another OF unless injury"

Look at Chris Snellings track record of staying on the field.  

Then, look at Guillen's durability over his career.  

The M's need to assume that they will have to deal without at least one of those guys for at least a month.  

More likely, one or both miss a good chunk of the season.  

Further, the best way for the M's to avoid that situation would be to rest those two regularly.  Again, having a good player on the club to fill in for them is just smart.  

Finally, Dukes would be a long-term addition.  Guillen is not a good bet to be playing for the M's in 2008.  Dukes is ML-ready right now, but he should be starting in 2008.  Perfect.  

by Jerry on Dec 3, 2006 11:50 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

that
ibanez moves to dh fulltime?
Baek looks dumb but he is South Korean like me LOL

by ZeZetheX on Dec 3, 2006 10:39 AM PST   0 recs

It just feels so right
to trade Broussard right now.  He's cheap and a decent DH/1B.  I'm sure there are teams out there that would be interested.  Plus we could package him with somebody like Reed and a random AAAA reliever and get something decent in return.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2006 11:12 AM PST   0 recs

The only problem
is that the return you get for Broussard won't be as good as his probable production against right-handed pitchers. Slump aside, he's made for Safeco, and he's a valuable tool.

Unfortunately we're in a bit of a roster squeeze, so, yeah, I'd be happy to send Broussard somewhere else for a prospect and sign a random bat to offer depth on the bench. A Snelling/Morse psuedo-platoon at DH would be okay with me.

by Jeff on Dec 3, 2006 11:23 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

True
Broussard is very useful and was a good addition to the team but we really just don't have room for him.

Not going to happen...but Ibanez probably could fetch us a king's ransom after the year he just came off of.  Ok, who am I kidding, that trade will never happen.

Trading Sexson even makes more sense now.  Then you could shift either Ibanez to 1B or a platoon of Broussard/Morse that would probably do fine too.

Its just a little annoying that we are going to divide up PA away from Snelling in the end.  Another thing is that you can't platoon for Jose Guillen.  Its not smart.  His last 3 yr splits:

vs. Left   .248/.306/.434
vs. Right  .285/.341/.485

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2006 11:48 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

For what it's worth
I've seen those three-year splits quoted in a lot of places, but if you look at Guillen's career the reverse split goes away. It's a sample size thing.

He's still not a good platoon candidate, but he's not a backwards freak of nature, either.

by Jeff on Dec 3, 2006 11:59 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

I would say platoon neutral
so your not gaining much from using him in a platoon.  Looking at the last five years, he's always done better against RHP.  Not by much but a little.  My suspision is that over his career he is probably platoon neutral.  I agree he's not some sort of freak but everyone needs to realize that a platoon of Snelling/Guillen is kinda funny since neither guy really is going to have much of a split.  You might as well say that you are going to play them every other day because the pitcher out there isn't going to matter much.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2006 12:16 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Well, there *is* a bit of an advantage.
Even if the hitter doesn't show a significant split, most pitchers do, so you're better served having Snelling up there against a righty than Guillen, and Guillen up there against a lefty than Snelling (generally speaking).

The productivity would be lower than a Perez/Broussard platoon, but then again it wouldn't be vulnerable to pitching changes, since neither batter shows much of a split.

Not that we're going to see a Guillen/Snelling platoon anyway, but it's an interesting thought nevertheless.

by Jeff on Dec 3, 2006 12:22 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I guess I didn't think about the other half
of the equation but its not going to be much of an advantage.  You'd get way more benifit probably platooning Ibanez/Guillen but we still don't have much information about Snelling's platoon splits at the major league level since he's hardly faced any LHP(argg!).

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2006 12:44 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I'm pretty sure
Reverse platoons don't actually exist for righties.

Wasn't there a study once that concluded that left handed batters were much more prone to having severe split differentiation anyway?

by Graham on Dec 3, 2006 12:19 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

on a plus note,
Guillen does get hit by 15 or so pitches a year so that will help alleviate some of the problems of his hacktastic batting strategy, and since we have 19 games against the Angels, I wouldn't be suprised to see that number go up to 20 or so.

by Trenchtown2 on Dec 3, 2006 1:56 PM PST   0 recs

Fact-Check:
Tecate is Mexican.  The Dominican beers of choice likely to have been present at the Guillen bash are Presidente and Bohemian.  Both are far superior to Tecate.

by helfgott on Dec 3, 2006 2:31 PM PST   0 recs

Oh, I know
but if Jose Guillen knew what was best for him he wouldn't have signed with Seattle.

by Jeff on Dec 3, 2006 2:41 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

What if
they're shopping Snelling as well as Reed, and keep whichever one they dont trade, or both if the trade is worth it (like a decent/good young SP).  

I'd think Snelling's value would be reduce to many GM's because of his injury histroy.  He can hit though, no-one's going to question that.  I'd sooner them trade Reed, but it wouldn't surprise me if his name came up a few times during discusions, because he's a cheap, good, young hitter with some decent outfield defense.  I wouldn't be totally opposed, but only if they got a good young player, preferrably SP (no relievers), and not some near replacement level bum they viewed as a good fit for some reason.  I think I trust Bavasi to do anything stupid with Snelling though.

by chrisisasavage on Dec 3, 2006 5:03 PM PST   0 recs

However
I think it's most likely that they approach Ibanez in the offseason and try to convince him to DH.  I'd hope he'd say OK at this point.  The FO have to know he's a defensive liability at any position, and needs to be a DH.  An outfield of Snelling/Ichiro/Guillen, and an Ibanez/Morse platoon at DH would be ideal I think, maximizing the offensive and defensive production, but I suspect Hargrove will botch it.

by chrisisasavage on Dec 3, 2006 5:09 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Also
Ibanez would never go for said platoon, I'm just saying it'd make the most sense and moving Snelling to DH once in a while and Ibanez to LF, RF or 1B to keep his defense from getting rusty, and we'd have a good line-up.  Get Schmidt w/ a front loaded contract like Jeff mentioned, and this is like an 84-85 win true-talent level team.  Not bad for only token big contract to make the average fan happy.

by chrisisasavage on Dec 3, 2006 5:12 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

ya
i agree bu i dont think ibanez will want to platoon. even tho it would be good he probably wouldnt want to be dh and then be told he would platoon. Still this will be a test of mike hargrove!

by ZeZetheX on Dec 3, 2006 5:31 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Not to read between the lines but......
The good: **he has a heart of a warrior*

by jojo on Dec 3, 2006 5:46 PM PST   0 recs

Overlooked Scenario
what if the plan is that Snelling isn't a part of the 25-man roster coming out of ST.  What if the club is thinking that his abnormal Snelling type performance last year was due to his previous injury, and that the thought is to have him playing every day in Tacoma to start the season to get back to the performance level he was at before his last knee injury?

I know Snelling is popular amongst the truly dedicated fans, but is it out of the realm of thinking that his extremely high strikeout rates last year both in AAA and on his callup were a sign to the club to send him back down to Tacoma to start the year to workout whatever bad habit it was that overtook him?  I mean the fresh thing on the minds of the Mariners in regards to Snelling is last 60 at-bats last season where he posted a line of .183/.310/.267 add that to his Tacoma line of .216/.326/.340 and its not hard to see that they might be thinking he needs to work out whatever went wrong with the Rainiers instead of with the Mariners, where both Bavasi and Hargrove need to win now.

by MfaninAlaska on Dec 3, 2006 9:44 PM PST   0 recs

I believe he is out of options
So I don't think they can send him down with risking losing him, which would be extremely foolish.
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 3, 2006 9:51 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

I think this means Washburn gets traded
Washburn's contract is not ridiculous in this market and he LOATHES Guillen and was the most vocal against Guillen in the Angels clubhouse in 2004.

by Rev Halofan on Dec 3, 2006 10:41 PM PST   0 recs

Enh, not sure
Much as I'd like to ditch him, how the hell are we gonna fill up the #3 slot otherwise?

by Graham on Dec 3, 2006 11:25 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Use any AAA pitcher
and then use the $9 million to routinely bribe umpires to call the games our way.  Has a much higher sucess rate than having Washburn try his best.

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 3, 2006 11:42 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Appropriate
because Guillen 2007 = Everett 2006.

Also, B-Liv was designated to make room for Guillen.

by kva15 on Dec 4, 2006 12:14 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Hey, what you still doin' round here ;-)
Thought of you when I saw the Jeff Harris game-issued jerseys on the racks at the M's team store.  At $45, even...

Yeah.  Why Pineiro is still on the 40-man is just baffling to me.  Now they've exposed B-Liv?  Wow.

Are we there yet?

by PositivePaul on Dec 4, 2006 12:32 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Great
"The thing I'm really looking forward to is that I hear [manager] Mike Hargrove likes to play his regular players every day," Guillen said. "I'm not the type of player who likes to play one day and sit the next. I want to be in there every day and get a chance to earn my bonuses and help the team win.

by I'm NOT Corco on Dec 4, 2006 8:59 AM PST   0 recs

I like how
earning his bonuses is slightly more important to him than helping the team win...

by oompagooba on Dec 4, 2006 11:30 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Guillen
"I don't got truly no respect for [Scioscia]"

God bless you Guillen, but that might be the ugliest sentence in the histroy of the world.

WIN IT FOR RAFFY!!!

by MFAN on Dec 4, 2006 10:02 AM PST   0 recs

Hmm
No wonder that ZeZetheX guy is so high on Guillen...
Marinerds - a different daily dose of baseblog.

by Deanna on Dec 4, 2006 12:44 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

When I can speak Spanish better than Guillen
maybe I'll consider ripping his use of English.

by johnbai on Dec 4, 2006 10:26 AM PST   0 recs

Obligatory witty comment
About Americans and the English language.

by Graham on Dec 4, 2006 11:10 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Obligatory witty comment
about how if it weren't for us, you'd be speaking German.

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 4, 2006 5:23 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

And don't try to say you could have held
your own.  For god's sakes, you couldn't beat the French in 100 years and the Germans did it in less time than it takes for...damn, i wish i was a writer cause this would be great...

by Edgar for Pres on Dec 4, 2006 11:18 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Obligatory history lesson
About the Battle of Britain, and the winning side thereof.

Besides, without us, you'd all be speaking French ;)

by Graham on Dec 4, 2006 11:26 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Obligatory upper level history lesson
about the Lend-Lease Act and American supply convoys of '40-'41.

Good point about the French, although they probably would have screwed it up somehow anyway.

by Rollo Tomasi on Dec 5, 2006 1:32 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Without the Bering land bridge
none of us would be speaking anything.

by Jeff on Dec 5, 2006 8:00 AM PST to parent up   0 recs

Actually
More like the Europeans wouldn't have any pesky Native Americans to slaughter.
Willie Bloomquist and Mike Hargrove suck

by Mariner John on Dec 5, 2006 7:27 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

OT
The Mets have signed Naggs to a minor league contract with a NRI to Spring training.
Aici zace un om despre care nu se ştie prea mult.

by Goose on Dec 4, 2006 12:33 PM PST   0 recs

That would be so funny to me
if Nags ended up in the Mets rotation or bullpen.

Nutzo rumor of the week I'm currently hearing is Sexson and the contents of a Brinks truck for D-Train.

by Gomez on Dec 4, 2006 12:47 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Because their GM goes clinically insane
Unless, of course, Dontrelle's arm is a time bomb and only they know it, which would make them geniuses.  But I doubt that as much as I doubt this rumor.

by Gomez on Dec 4, 2006 12:50 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

Well, I suspect Dontrelle's arm is a time bomb
And I -still- wouldn't trade him for Sexson

by Graham on Dec 4, 2006 12:53 PM PST to parent up   0 recs

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