Lookout Landing: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:



Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
New Blog: Backing the Pack for NC State Fans!


53-69

Even when he's at his best, Felix can't do everything, which is why we pay nine guys to go up to the plate a few times a game and try to put a run on the scoreboard. Those nine guys didn't get the job done for the longest time tonight, though, and it looked like Felix was well on his way to the first of what will undoubtedly be several tough losses in his career. That said, he still managed to plug away and keep the Twins quiet until the bats finally woke up and unleashed a fury of awesomeness all over the Metrodome, a testament to Felix's maturity (and an inadvertent, subtle jab at Ryan Franklin, I suppose). Beltre and Sexson going back-to-back wasn't even the half of it - that tenth inning was a spectacle in and of itself.

How big of an inning was it? The six runs scored by the Mariners in the tenth were more than they had scored in 88 of their 121 previous full games. It was the kind of offensive outburst that instantly changed the minds of fans who were determined to stick it out until the bitter end just minutes earlier. When Sexson's (completely unnecessary) grand slam landed, entire sections of people got up and left the stadium, leaving only a select few to shout "LEEEWWWWW!!" when his blast made the game 17% closer in the bottom half of the inning. Tonight, the Mariners didn't just beat the Twins - they strung them along and took some punches before landing a haymaker and delivering a swift knee to the crotch. And it was good.

It'd be great to, y'know, hit Kyle Lohse a little bit, though.

Biggest Contribution: Willie Ballgame, +24.7%
Biggest Suckfest: Raul Ibanez, -36.6%
Most Important Hit: Strong triple, +22.9%
Most Important Pitch: LeCroy single, -19.6%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): +33.0%
Total Contribution by Hitters: +8.4%

(What is this?)

How did Richie Sexson end up with only the seventh-biggest positive contribution despite driving in five of the team's eight runs? Simple - his first home run narrowed the gap, but didn't erase it, while his grand slam came with the team already leading by two in extra innings. So while his raw numbers got a healthy boost, his longballs really didn't make much of a difference. The big hits, in order, were (1) Strong's triple, (2) Beltre's homer, and (3) Betancourt's single.

Still, though, as Lance Brumder would say, grand slams are kickass, and a hell of a way to cap off an enormous inning. You can't tell me that it hasn't been real fun watching Sexson and Beltre tee off over the past few weeks.

Speaking of which, daily^ updates:

Beltre's last 183 at bats: .268/.298/.536. (.268 isolated power; .294 a year ago)
Sexson post-ASB: .270/.368/.672

Power be damned, Felix Hernandez still managed to steal the show. On a night when the strike zone seemed as small as Nick Punto, Felix hit the zone with two-thirds of his pitches (season average: 67.4%), avoiding solid contact despite having what seemed like worse stuff than his previous two times out. He would allow just three more baserunners after Matt LeCroy's two-run single in the first, walking one while striking out another nine. In short, even when Felix didn't look dominant, he was dominant.

It's not just that Felix is missing a bunch of bats - it's that, on the off chance that a hitter does make contact, he's not really doing himself any favors. Felix has only allowed 16 hits in 29 innings this year, but what's more amazing is that all 16 hits have been singles, many of the "seeing eye" variety. His line against this year: .157/.196/.157. NL pitchers at the plate: .149/.163/.190. Felix has essentially turned opposing lineups into nine Tim Hudsons. At his current rate of recording an out in 80.4% of all plate appearances, Felix's odds of throwing a perfect game, assuming 33 starts per year, are one per 11 seasons. Bear in mind that there have only been 17 perfect games in the history of baseball.

This was also Felix's first chance to see a lineup for the second time (albeit a pretty bad one). Did they approach him any differently?

Strike%: 73.4% first time, 67.0% second time
1st Pitch Strike%: 69.0%, 60.0%
Swing%: 55.3%, 44.3%
Patience Index^: 2.03, 2.43
1st Pitch Swing%: 34.4%, 16.7%

^-average number of pitches thrown in an AB when hitter swings for the first time

After doing absolutely nothing against Felix the first time, the Twins came back with a slightly more patient approach this time around, waiting on Felix and hoping that he'd fall behind in the count and have to come back over the plate with something hittable. They got the second part half-right - after throwing first-pitch strikes to 18 of the 30 batters he faced, more than four-fifths of the rest of the pitches Felix threw in each at bat found the zone. The problem was that they weren't quite as hittable as Minnesota would have liked, which is why they couldn't get anything going after the first inning. Even with a small zone, Felix is a strike-throwing maniac, and that's something that no one saw coming after his performance in Tacoma earlier this year.

There's been something of an uproar over Hargrove sending Felix back out there to pitch the eighth when he already had 103 pitches under his belt. People who don't like the maneuver have their hearts in the right place, but I don't think tonight is really worth complaining about.

There's a rather arbitrary fascination with the number "100" when it comes to pitch counts, that a young pitcher stands a greater chance of hurting himself when he throws pitch #100 than he does when he throws #99 or #101. However, pitch counts by themselves are pretty meaningless - you need a context, and in Felix's case, the context is not cause for alarm.

Pitchers hurt themselves when they try to pitch through fatigue and their mechanics get messed up. This tends to happen more often later in games when a guy's pitch count is climbing, hence the theory relating pitch counts to injury risk, but if a guy's mechanics are bad, he's every bit as likely to get hurt in the first inning as he is in the eighth. Likewise, if a guy's mechanics are fluid, and he's built up good stamina, he's no more likely to get hurt on pitch #120 as he is on pitch #12. At no point later in the game tonight did Felix show a mechanical lapse; his delivery was consistent and his velocity didn't indicate that he was getting tired (his fastball was still in the 96-97 range when he got pulled). He also wasn't throwing many pitches in stressful situations - only 40 of his 115 pitches came with men on base, and only 13 after the third inning. Felix was cruising.

If his first four starts are any indication, Felix may be one of those rare Bartolo Colon types who gets stronger as he gets deeper into the game. Chart:

Felix has reached the eighth inning in three of his four starts this year. He's thrown 72.1% strikes in the seventh/eighth innings, as opposed to 65.5% strikes in the first/second innings. This is a guy who's better than average when he's bad and almost historically terrific when he's good. Tonight, Felix was in one of those grooves, having found the strike zone with nearly three-fourths of his pitches between the fifth and the seventh. He looked comfortable, and Mike Hargrove had no reason to pull him from the game after seven.

Shortstop 1: 22 years old (third year), .274/.301/.369, bad defense
Shortstop 2: 23 years old (rookie), .270/.289/.378, awesome defense

I don't know if those numbers should be construed as good for Yuniesky Betancourt or bad for Jose Reyes, but either way, it's interesting.

When George Sherrill walks off the mound after getting the job done, I wonder if he stares at Matt Thornton and mouths "I'm better than you."

Joel Pineiro v2.0 takes on Brad Radke tomorrow morning at 11:10am.

0 recs | Comment 6 comments

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

George Sherrill
After reading that sentance, I pitcured him doing that after the behind the back catch and Thorton pouting.Made me laugh.

If Piniero makes another good start tommorow, I'm going to start believing he may actually be worth keeping in next years rotation.

Despite having two horrible months, Beltre is still probably going to end up with 25-30 homers and 80-95  RBI's.Since I think we all figure he will be better next year, look for 35-40 homers and 100-120 RBI.

Richie is tied with Manny for 2nd in the AL in homers and he's 6th in RBI's.Not to mention he's 7th in SLG.Can you say team MVP?

Who else but Quaqmire? giggity, giggity, giggity, giggity Let's Have SEX!!

by Goose on Aug 21, 2005 2:08 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Beta
I'm impressed with this kid so far. Small sample size, not great numbers, yada yada yada. His defense is sick and he's getting some key hits. Right now, he is swinging at too much out of the zone but he's only 23. After 2-3 years of major league hitting and working with coaches, he should develop a better eye.

by phil333 on Aug 21, 2005 6:31 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I still don't like it.
Prudence would suggest that Felix be limited to a hard 100 count.

Sure, he didn't get injured last night and, yes, he seemed to be cruising and doing just fine.  The problem becomes... what happens when Felix is in a bigger game and Hargrove/Price now have this history of letting him go over 100 count.  They are going to be more likely to push him out there and Felix, being the young cocky kid he surely is, is going to push to stay out there.

Thus increasing the likelyhood that we are, as Mariner fans, are going to one day experience the horrible tragedy of watching this incredible young pitcher throw his arm away.

The 100 pitch count is not a guarantee, but it is not just all superstition either.

by manyoso on Aug 21, 2005 7:42 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

next game
I agree.  Will the inflated pitch count affect Felix's next start? will his mechanics suffer?  could his slight fall-off in this game v. the previous one have been because he went 8 with 100+ pitches (right?) last game? isn't there good data at this point linking a high pitch count game with a fall in performance the next? it's not the stress of any given pitch or any given game, it's the stress over time right?  my perfect Felix game at this point is 7 sharp innings, 90 pitches, and out. if the pen is too feeble to hold it, so be it. (the only set-up man out there i trust at this point is sherrill.)

btw, i don't have the link handy, but Murray Chass has a column in Sunday's New York Times on Mike Marshall , who in 1974 pitched 208 innings in 106 games as a relief pitcher. A Ph.D. in exercise physiology, Marshall contends that traditional pitching mechanics are the source of arm injuries and recommends a different model: "I want the ball to go back toward second base, then toward home plate in as straight a line as possible. The traditional motion has anywhere from 5 to 9 feet of side-to-side movement in ways that put unnecessary stress on the arm and do no good for the quality of pitches and cause injuries."   Felix's motion seems nice and easy to me, really, but you guys have already pointed out how it ends up tilting toward first base...

rightly, in every age it is assumed we are witnessing the disappearance of the last traces of paradise... Cioran

by toonprivate on Aug 21, 2005 9:10 AM PDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Jeff: Thank you.
For us die-hard fans, your astute analysis is second only to the actual drooling over a Felix Hernandez start like we saw yesterday.

Kudos for staying up so late to get it done.

by peterpeter on Aug 21, 2005 9:56 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Pitch count
Mentioned this on USS Mariner: throwing a lot of pitches over the course of a game doesn't do the damage, it's throwing a bunch of pitches in a single inning, a la Gil the Douche.  Throwing 20-25 pitches in a bad inning taxes the arm a LOT more than throwing those same 20-25 pitches over 2 innings, and the arm doesn't recover in-game from that sort of taxing, even after easy 1-2-3 5-pitch innings and rest between.  I think it's sound to judge not necessarily by pitch count, but by pitch counts in an inning and how much work the pitcher has to put in to finish those innings.  If Felix was at 110 pitches, and it took him 25 pitches to get through one or two of those innings, I'd be more worried than if he had 110 pitches and it took him no more than 16 or 17 pitches to finish a particular frame.

Felix didn't show any fatigue.  Let him run out there and pitch if he's still getting the job done easily.  Keep in mind that a high pitch count in a start is more like 130+ pitches.  Starters regularly throw 110-120 pitches.  Now, if he were openly showing fatigue after 100 pitches, then yes, pull him.

by Gomez on Aug 21, 2005 10:06 AM PDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

By reading a game thread of your own volition you agree to accept all liability for any and all damage done to your delicate sensibilities.
Start posting about the Mariners »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Amy_s_pictures1_042_small
Ichiro's comments on his fake flip at Yankee Stadium
Small
Strip Club Cleared to Open Near Safeco Field

Recent FanPosts

Small
Want to go to tonights game in Boston?  Please?
Small
Top 5 IFA Guillermo Pimentel signs with the Mariners?
Clemente_small
OT 7/2/05-- Flag Waving, Long Weekend, 4th of July Holiday edition
Small
Open Sounders vs. Timbers gamethread
Small
Happy Canada Day
Durer2_small
Who will be heir to the King?
Eyebrows_small
OFFTOP 6/29/09 - Avoiding Work Edition
Dscn1856_small
USA vs. Brazil Game Thread
Small
Anyone meeting up in NYC?

Post_icon New FanPost All FanPosts Carrot-mini


Sexy People

Hms_surprise_small Graham

Small Matthew

Small Jeff

Official Partner of Yahoo! Sports