This post does not really have anything to do with the Mariners. Not every post needs to have anything to do with the Mariners, just because this is a Mariners blog. Stop being so one-track minded. I did. And now I'm writing this post.

There's lots of buzz that Seattle is working hard to get an NBA team and an NHL team. We've heard such buzz before, but it's seemed unusually intense of late. They wouldn't be getting a new NBA team or a new NHL team. Presumably, they would be getting the Sacramento Kings and the Phoenix Coyotes, respectively. There's no guarantee that Sacramento moves, and there's no guarantee that Phoenix moves, but my admittedly limited understanding is that their current situations could be best described with a word rhyming with brother-sucked. Actually that's gross. 'Nother-lucked. There we go, kind of!

Matthew and I talked about this on the podcast we recorded this morning (stay tuned brother-suckers). Let's go and get ahead of ourselves. Let's say Seattle gets an NBA team, and let's say Seattle gets an NHL team. I'm assuming that the NBA team would be called the Sonics, or the SuperSonics. I'm also assuming that, if it wouldn't, whatever, I don't care about basketball. What of the NHL team? What would the hockey team be called?

You wouldn't keep them as the Coyotes. They wouldn't be starting over from scratch as a roster, but they'd be starting over from scratch as a franchise. You wouldn't want to go back to the Metropolitans, since there's already another Metropolitans in baseball, and also that name sucks. As I talked about in the podcast and since I'm not above using ideas over again, 'Lahar' is a non-starter and 'Canucks' would be hilariously dickish but probably forbidden.

So, what are your ideas? If you were in charge for some reason, what would you name the hockey team? Why would you name it that? If offering a suggestion, please also offer an explanation.

There have been some mightily team-friendly deals signed this winter and the Texas Rangers just added another by buying out all three of Elvis Andrus' arbitration years. I heard about the length of the contract in advance of hearing about the monetary figures, so while I waited for those, I went about constructing what I thought to be a fair value contract and also my guess as to the actual deal about to be leaked.

Based on wide agreement as to Andrus' hitting level and across-the-board praise of his defense, I think three wins (3 WAR) is a fair projection for Andrus going forward and based solely on that and the 40%/60%/80% arbitration guesstimates, pinned a fair market deal for Andrus in the $20-25 million range to buy out all three years. My guess was that the actual figure was going to be nearer $17 million because I knew what the two parties filed for in arbitration ($3.6M from Andrus, $2.65M from the Rangers). I'm not sure why, but first-year arb players constantly seem to be undervalued and that can skew things when being bought out like this.

It appears, based on Ken Rosenthal, that I was still too optimistic and that the contract is going to be for about $15 million, though it will not include any team options, which are usually friendly to the ballclub. This is no Howie Kendrick-level steal for the Rangers, but it's a fine deal for Texas based on Andrus' already established level of play and he showed hints at a relatively improving bat last season.

The signings of Hong-Chih Kuo and Shawn Camp to Major League contracts have restricted the likely openings on the Seattle bullpen for all those candidates that Jack Zduriencik gathered over the winter like an adorable little pika. With those two plus George Sherrill and Brandon League, the consensus is that the bullpen is already taking semi-rigid shape, like the frame of a tent with only the rain flaps and other doodads left to perch on top.

The favorites to make the trip to Japan along with their three-year weighted tRA+s:
Closer: Brandon League (117)
LH short: George Sherrill* (99) [signing link]
RH short: Shawn Camp (96) [signing link]
LH middle: Hong-Chih Kuo* (114) [signing links]
RH middle: Shawn Kelley (130)
LH long: Charlie Furbush* (81)
RH long: Tom Wilhelmsen (107)

The roles laid out are not requirements of course. The Mariners don't need to carry both a left and right-handed long man. The players drive the roles, not the other way around. I find it amusing though how cleanly it breaks down with this group of seven. The back three do not have much Major League experience, so take their weighted tRA+s with more salt than the first four, whom you should still take with quite a bit of salt because they are relievers. It's a lot of salt all together so I suggest having a friend or perhaps a nemesis assist you with the intake. Why salt anyways? Is that implying they are bland tasting or perhaps rotting? This is weird.

On the outside, overhanging but not overshadowing, is Mount Pile:
Steve Delabar
Matt Fox [signing link]
Steve Garrison* [signing link]
Jarrett Grube
Aaron Heilman [signing link]
Sean Henn* [signing link]
Cesar Jimenez* [out of options]
Josh Kinney [signing link]
Lucas Luetge* [rule 5] [selecting link]
Jeff Marquez [signing link]
Chance Ruffin
Scott Patterson [signing link]
Oliver Perez* [signing link]
Phillippe-Alexandre Valiquette* [info link]

There's a few interesting names on that list. And there's a few interesting players on that list. Those two sets overlap but are not identical. I see that some people are puzzled by the Shawn Camp addition coming at the Major League expense of one of the above players, but I am unconcerned and even slightly happy at his coming aboard (nautical term). Perusing Mount Pile, none of those people strike me as substantially more likely than Camp to offer 50 league average innings of relief. The difference between what he's projected to produce and what some combination of rocks would is proabably minimal and ultimately meaningless for 2012's playoff odds, but I don't find that makes Camp a waste.

Camp isn't young and is unlikely to be a meaningful part of any kind of future, but he does provide some depth that I think is useful. It would be really great for the fans if the Mariners avoided a third-consecutive 90-loss season and though Camp isn't going to single-handedly stem that tide (nautical term), he can be one more minor fail safe to prevent a 2010-everyone-sucks-we're-screwed situation from arising again. I wrote previously about my concerns surrounding the lack of quality hitting depth behind the starters and I shared similar reservations about the pitching. Kuo and Camp help to mitigate that. It makes it a little less likely that the bullpen is horrifying in 2012.

My hunch is that if Camp were brought in on another of the minor league contracts plus Spring Training invite deals, then nobody would raise a peep of concern. That it is the guaranteed roster spot that wiggles against some people. That doesn't bother me either for a couple reasons. As Jeff pointed out, Ruffin and Delabar — the two most oft-cited to be left high and dry (nautical term) by Camp's signing — both have very limited time at the Triple-A level so neither would simply be twiddling their thumbs. Ruffin jumped from Double-A to the Majors with Detroit before heading down to their AAA-affilate Toledo for 15 innings. Delabar made a 13-inning pit stop in Tacoma on his third stop of a four-level trip last season that began in High Desert and ended with a whopping seven Major League innings. Neither had the sort of dominant 2011 seasons that suggest some time in Triple-A would go to waste.

More importantly, relievers are volatile creatures by nature of their small sample opportunities and they, being pitchers and being pitchers without the benefit of a weekly routine, tend to get hurt a lot. Shawn Kelley was injured last year. Hong-Chih Kuo was injured last year. George Sherrill was injured last year. By and large (nautical term), the Mariners may not break camp with the absolute best bullpen they could muster, but that means almost nothing. Bullpens fluctuate constantly throughout the season unless they're rolling good and healthy; so if someone like Chance Ruffin starts in Tacoma, there's still little impeding him from being a Mariner come May and a month of relief usage only represents approximately 11 innings of pitching. It's not a big deal.

Yesterday, while I was writing about the Mariners signing Hong-Chih Kuo, I found out that the Mariners were also signing Shawn Camp. My post was entirely dedicated to Kuo and I had other things I had to do afterwards, so I allowed Matthew to handle the Camp post. I very much appreciate his help. However, there are a few things I want to talk about that are related to Camp, now that I have a moment. These are those things. These are most of those things, anyway, since I've probably forgotten one or two.

***

In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays allowed 671 runs and made the World Series. In 2007, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays allowed 944 runs and lost 96 games. In 2008, the Rays were fantastic, but in 2007, the Devil Rays were a complete and utter embarrassment. They were an embarrassment with a terrible defense and a putrid bullpen. The Devil Rays' bullpen that year posted a 6.16 ERA. The whole bullpen, a 6.16 ERA, over almost 500 innings. It is the highest team bullpen ERA I can find, besting (worsting?) 5.97 from the 1996 Detroit Tigers. Remember the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks? Remember how those Diamondbacks had a godawful bullpen? Their bullpen ERA was 5.74. In a hitter-friendly park. Tampa Bay plays in a quietly pitcher-friendly park.

There was Al Reyes. There was Gary Glover. There was Casey Fossum. There were other guys. And there was Shawn Camp. Shawn Camp made 50 relief appearances for the 2007 Devil Rays. He posted a 7.20 ERA. That was not the worst individual ERA in the bullpen. Not by a long shot.

Shawn Camp is a survivor.

***

There's been some...well I don't really want to call it "concern," but there have been words about how signing Shawn Camp further reduces the odds that Chance Ruffin or Steve Delabar break camp with the Mariners (unless they break Camp! haaaaaa). It's true, those odds have presumably been reduced. It's also not such a bad thing that they have.

Ruffin has 15 career Major League appearances. He was okay, but not outstanding. He has 13 career triple-A appearances. He was okay, but not outstanding. There are surely things he could work on out of the spotlight. And as good a story as Delabar is, and as much as one can imagine him finding success with his stuff, in the minors last year he walked 40 batters in 56 innings. That's bad, and we don't know that he's ready for the bigs.

Both Ruffin and Delabar could probably use some more minor league seasoning. And even if you believe that they're ready right now, what's the problem with reliever depth? Ruffin and Delabar have options. They're hardly blocked. They'll get promoted if they earn it. It's not like teams ever go through a whole year with just seven relievers. It's not like the Mariners won't be thinking about trading relievers during the summer.

Shawn Camp might be kind of a weird signing for a team like the Mariners, but don't overstate the negative consequences of the move. It's practically harmless.

***

Hong-Chih Kuo has hit a home run. It was an impressive home run, hit off a good pitcher. Shawn Camp has one career at bat. He has one career hit.

True, Camp has two career plate appearances. In his first, he put down a sacrifice bunt. Then, on May 23, 2010, Camp was pitching in a blowout and batted against Diamondbacks reliever Saul Rivera. We're back to the 2010 Diamondbacks bullpen again. Camp took a first-pitch ball, then swung at a high fastball and lifted a flare over short. It fell in safely, giving Camp a 1.000 batting average he's been able to preserve.

Here's how Camp responded:

I've since identified that as Shawn Camp Face. Here it is. Here it is. Here it is. Shawn Camp makes that face a lot. Get used to that face.

***

An alarming trend is that Shawn Camp's strikeout rate has declined each season since 2008. Last season he posted a lower strikeout rate than Jeff Francis and Tyler Chatwood. His strikeout rate was barely higher than Blake Beavan's. That seems bad. This might help:

2008-2009: 81.8% contact rate
2010-2011: 82.2%

Maybe it doesn't. It helped me, a little. Sure, Camp's strikeouts were down last year. But his contact rate wasn't meaningfully higher than it was in 2009. He hasn't all of a sudden become super easy to hit.

Let's look at it a different way. Camp's basically a righty specialist, right? He's not a guy you want facing many lefties? Here's how he's done against righties:

2008: 75.8% contact rate
2009: 80.5%
2010: 78.2%
2011: 79.0%

No trend in there. The 2008 number stands out, but the 2008 number is based on a pretty small sample. The last three years, Camp's been more or less the same. He throws strikes, he misses some bats, and he gets some grounders. Against righties. Let's not acknowledge what he does against lefties. Let's just not talk about that.

A few days ago, while walking by a McDonald's, Ms. Jeff decided to tell me about how McNuggets are made, or at least about how she thinks that McNuggets are made. I don't know how much of her story is true, and it's possible that all of her story is true, and hearing her story made me want to throw up. What follow below are some nuggets, but they are not McNuggets. They will not make anybody want to throw up, probably. They will also not make you fat and unattractive if consumed in large quantities. Sample these nuggets as often as you like! When doing so please remember to refresh a lot so I can get a raise.

***

As you've heard, the Mariners signed relievers Hong-Chih Kuo and Shawn Camp to Major League contracts. There was some possibility that Kuo would sign a minor league contract, but he did not sign a minor league contract, as he signed a Major League contract. Assuming that Kuo doesn't come completely undone in spring training, it's looking like the bullpen is mostly sorted out.

There'll be Brandon League to close. There'll be Kuo and George Sherrill from the left side. There'll be Camp from the right side, and probably Shawn Kelley, and probably Tom Wilhelmsen. Then maybe the seventh slot goes to Blake Beavan or Charlie Furbush. The bullpen isn't completely closed off and guys like Aaron Heilman or Josh Kinney could earn a spot given the breaks, but two slots just disappeared today in one press release. Just like with the Tigers' Prince Fielder press release lolololol

***

To make roster room for the relievers, the Mariners designated both Chris Gimenez and Mike Wilson for assignment. Neither comes as much of a shock although I'm still trying to figure out who Yoervis Medina is. The thing about these moves is that both Gimenez and Wilson could clear waivers and remain in the organization so it's not yet time to say goodbye.

If Gimenez gets claimed, it'll be because he's a catcher who can play other positions. Last year he started at catcher, first base and left field. If Gimenez doesn't get claimed, it'll be because he hasn't demonstrated that he can really hit. He's been passable in triple-A. He's been not-passable in the Majors. He's another guy with a lower career OPS than Hong-Chih Kuo.

If Wilson gets claimed, it'll be because some front office doesn't believe in quad-A hitters. Last year in Tacoma he put up a .973 OPS. If Wilson doesn't get claimed, it'll be because last year in Tacoma Carlos Peguero put up a .923 OPS, and Michael Saunders put up an .864 OPS, and Ryan Langerhans put up a 1.000 OPS. Out of context, wow, Mike Wilson! In context, oh, hey, Mike Wilson. I would personally like to see what Wilson could do with 500 at bats, but Major League Baseball isn't an experiment over which I have complete control. I wanted much more to see what Wily Mo Pena could do with 500 at bats and that didn't pan out. Maybe it's also Mike Wilson's time to turn his attention to Asia.

***

According to Greg Johns, some catcher named Christian Carmichael tested positive for PEDs. I guess I don't know if he tested positive for PEDs or PED. I don't know a whole lot because who on Earth is Christian Carmichael? I bet he's the guy who catches Yoervis Medina. Baseball-Reference tells me he's 19 and Hawaiian and the guy the Mariners took in the sixth round in 2010. The Lookout Landing archives tell me we've actually written his name before. But he's completely, and I mean completely slipped my mind since the draft. Because of the PED or PEDs, he won't play for a while in 2012, so be sure to account for that in wherever you account for these things.

***

We'll close with some Hong-Chih Kuo bat flip .gifs.

Continue reading this post »

Twitter link here. Shannon states that it is a Major League deal which means that another 40-man roster spot will have to be opened up. It's weird because so far only Shannon has tweeted it. Usually when there's a transaction, my twitter stream has identical tweets from Shannon, Larry Stone and Greg Johns, followed by Rotoworld linking to those three and then MLBTradeRumors. So far, nothing but Shannon. I hope Larry and Greg aren't dead. Don't be dead, guys.

[11:48 UPDATE] Both Greg Johns and Larry Stone tweet that the Mariners have DFA'd Chris Gimenez and Mike Wilson to make room for Hong-Chih Kuo and Camp. Whew! Still alive.

Shawn Camp is a mid-30s reliever who's been with the Blue Jays for the past four seasons and unfortunately does nothing to add to the Mariners quota of ʃɔn given names. The righty throws a high-80s sinker, a low-80s change and a high-70s slider and succeeds probably how you'd expect, through a combination of ground balls and throwing strikes.

Up until last season, he'd been a quietly effectively bullpen arm. Over the last half-dozen years, Camp's xFIP has stayed in the 3.65-4.00 range, which is fine enough. He's not going to be a transformational figure for the bullpen, but building up depth there is not a bad thing and Camp is better than the pile-type additions we've become used to seeing.

It's not all an adequate plate of noodles though. Since Camp's deal is that he needs to throw strikes, 2011 is a bit worrisome as Camp threw far fewer pitches in the strike zone last year than ever before. Now that didn't translate to a significantly higher walk rate and zone% by itself is not enough to worry about, but it is pause-worthy. Camp also saw his strikeout rate dip from below average (~17%) toward dangerously low (11%) territory which is worth even more pauses. Of course, all the normal warnings about a single year of relief pitching applies so don't freak out and go all Harold Pinter on us, but his fastball speed did dip a little so perhaps it's a harbinger of disappointment to come.

Camp is a bit of a side-tosser so he comes equipped with the enhanced platoon splits module that you really didn't want anyway but can be useful in some circumstances. In a certain light, Shawn Camp is the chiral George Sherrill. So hooray for probably many more mid-inning pitching changes this upcoming season. Those are fun, right? Everybody likes those!

Yesterday, while artificial giants brought an official end to another season of concussing one another, we talked a lot about free agent reliever Hong-Chih Kuo. The Mariners were linked to free agent reliever Hong-Chih Kuo, see, and a later report went so far as to say the Mariners were expected to sign him.

Rumor was, there was a small handful of West Coast teams sniffing Kuo to see if they liked it. One of those teams was probably the Angels, since the Angels have long been searching for help in the bullpen. How could the Mariners compete with the Angels as a potential free agent destination? Here's how, courtesy of Dylan Hernandez:

Source: Former #Dodgers reliever Hong-Chih Kuo has signed a one-year, major-league contract with the Seattle #Mariners.

Guaranteed money is how. Given what he went through in 2011, it would've made a lot of sense for Kuo to end up signing a minor league contract. The Mariners made a commitment, and while I'll freely admit that this is speculation, I wouldn't be surprised if that's what put the Mariners over the top. One notes that this signing isn't yet official, but that isn't reason to believe that Hernandez's source is wrong. We knew about Kevin Millwood before that was official. We knew about Munenori Kawasaki before that was official. We learned about Darren Ford from his sister, and so on. It's just about an absolute certainty that Kuo has signed, and that all that's left is troubleshooting the fax machine, or writing up the press release.

Or identifying somebody on the 40-man roster to ditch. As Kuo is signing a Major League contract, the Mariners will have to make room, seeing as how their 40-man roster is currently full. Mike Wilson is one option to go. Cesar Jimenez is another option to go. The Mariners could return Rule 5 pick Lucas Luetge, I think. It shouldn't be hard to fit Kuo in. If it were hard to fit Kuo in, that would imply that the Mariners have too much high-level talent. Good news!

With the Internet being what it is today, and since we heard about Kuo before, I don't really have much in the way of new material for this. Most of what needs to be said about Kuo has already been said. I guess nothing really needs to be said about Kuo. "Need" is one of those words on which people carelessly trample like a Mount Rainier wildflower. If you're all about volatility and high potential reward, Kuo's a neat fit. He could be terrible, like he was last season. He could bounce back from his anxiety and his elbow problems and be amazing, like he was the season before. Kuo could quite literally pitch to either extreme, and I'd much rather the Mariners sign a guy like this than, say, a guy like Jamey Wright or Luis Ayala. The upside is considerable, and the downside is practically irrelevant. If he's bad, oh no, the Mariners might miss the playoffs!

Since I've little more to say, here are a few Kuo factoids:

(1)
Dodgers trainers referred to him as "the Cockroach" because he kept coming back and nothing could kill him. He's fought through several elbow issues. He's fought through shoulder issues. He's fought through anxiety. This article from 2010 says Kuo needs six or seven hours of prep each day before he can pitch. The thing about cockroaches is that if you step on them they die. They make a mess but they are dead. So hopefully Hong-Chih Kuo doesn't get stepped on.

(2)
Hong-Chih Kuo hit a home run, in 2007, off of John Maine. Here is proof. Hong-Chih Kuo has more home runs against John Maine than the Giants do. He hit it on the first pitch. The pitch before, Maine allowed a home run to Matt Kemp. The pitch before that, Maine allowed a home run to Wilson Betemit. Hong-Chih Kuo has a higher career OPS than Michael Saunders.

On Kuo, in a story from June 2007:

Tsao said he faced Kuo a few times in high school but never gave him any pitches to hit.

"I wouldn't throw him any strikes, because he was always trying to hit a home run," Tsao said. "He still reminds me about his team winning the championship."

(3)
According to Hit Tracker, Kuo's home run had a distance of 431 feet. That's longer than any home run ever hit by Jose Lopez. That's longer than any home run ever hit by Dustin Pedroia. That is a legitimately tattooed home run. That is a home run worthy of a bat flip.

(4)
For his career, after getting ahead 0-2, Kuo has one walk and 136 strikeouts. That walk was issued to Adam LaRoche with the bases loaded.