The addition of Jesus Montero has a lot of people thinking positive thoughts about the top of the Mariners line up this coming season. Having Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero and (healthy) Justin Smoak in the middle is actually exciting. A reinvigorated Ichiro Suzuki at the very top would be stellar as well as would a back-to-2009 strengthened Franklin Gutierrez. A Casper Wells and Mike Carp platoon in left field would be fun too if their 2011s continue. And, hell, why not have Montero as the primary catcher and rope in Prince Fielder to DH? Imagine that batting order were things to break right. Instead of worst in baseball, that could be legitimately threatening!

That's the optimism for 2012 and that's great. I don't like writing pessimistic posts. Doing so could have use if there was a means of inspiring people to focus on something and change course like with yesterday's quite effective SOPA awareness campaign, but when it comes to the Mariners and baseball, we are mostly all collectively passive onlookers. For instance, I don't think a fan effort to have the team spend more money on payroll would accomplish anything. Lacking a potential positive outcome makes me want to avoid negative topics. Since baseball is an entertaining diversion, I prefer to not dwell on depressing* characteristics of the team unless there's a way to poke fun at them or perhaps if I find them noteworthy in some way.

*Note, only depressing if you care way too much.

But my thoughts today turned to the pessimistic. Looking at the Mariners current roster and minor league starters, it struck me how little MLB-quality depth there is on the hitting side. Specifically, I was examining backup starters in case of a major injury at some positions and I got that "uh oh" feeling when I began outlining it. Taking Montero, Smoak, Ackley, Brendan Ryan, Kyle Seager, Wells, Gutierrez, Ichiro and Carp as the nominal starters, what players are around to step up in case of a prolonged absence? There's Miguel Olivo and John Jaso at catcher. That's legitimate insurance there. Outside that position though it's (pause) yeah. Luis Rodriguez and Munenori Kawasaki are the middle infielders. Chone Figgins is remarkably still on this team and Alex Liddi might also be there at third base. There's a lagan of outfielders in Carlos Peguero, Michael Saunders, Darren Ford and Trayvon Robinson, but counting on them is troubling.

No doubt that there are better prospects on the way. The Mariners in A and AA-ball hold some promise and many of the regulars on the Major League team are quite young so come 2013, the depth chart should probably be far improved. And no doubt that 2012 is probably not the Mariners' year, solid bench or not. But if the team craters again this season though, I imagine that the bench having to shoulder too much of a burden will play a role.

The numbers and ranks are for the entire teams over the course of the regular season. I grant that is not the perfect measure as the postseason nature compresses some of the roster usage. For instance, replacing the total rotation figures with the combined run values of just the four likely starters for each team the Rangers fall to 64.4 while the Cardinals improve to 10.1. That's a 33-run shrink in the original 125-run gap between the two teams. Both bullpens are quite different as well as the Rangers made several mid-season trades to bolster it and the Cardinals have finally had the good sense to stop using Ryan Franklin and Miguel Batista.

The Cardinal hitters show no seasonal split versus left or right-handed pitchers which is useful since a majority of the Ranger starters are left-handed as are some key components of their bullpen. They have shown a preference for hitting on the road, with a 40-point gap in home vs road OPS, mostly due to many more road home runs. Similarly, Cardinal pitchers have little home/road split in strikeouts or walks, but allowed more home runs on the road than at home, helping to lead to a matched 40-point ERA gap.

On the Ranger's side, they show the expected home vs road splits with many more home runs yielded in Arlington and similarly little difference in platoon splits. So no luck trying to divine insight into a best-of-seven series from data produced over 162 other games, none of which against the current opponent. That was silly of you to try. You wasted my time negating your hopeful delusions.

Jeff has a poll up already asking for your feelings on which team you are rooting for in both radio button option mode and also in free-form text expression mode. Personally, I'm hoping for seven consecutive endings similar to this:

Which four starting pitchers each team will use is in little doubt. But the order they will be deployed is murkier and definitely subject to change when it comes to the possible games at the end of the series. Therefore, instead of laying out the match ups as usual on a per game basis, I will instead simply profile each of the eight I fingered as the starters.

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Mariners current draft spot: 3rd

Well, this is the end. The last Mariner-related series preview of the 2011 season. Last year, we carried on with game threads for the playoffs and I imagine we will do the same this autumn. Something about watching playoff baseball (on mute) was enjoyable last year. Seeing crowds excited, games that meant something and players that didn't suck was all refreshing after the doldrums of the 2010 season. Perhaps I'll throw up some playoff series or game previews as well this time if there's sufficient interest and I have time available. 

As it is, the Mariners end the season at home against the Athletics; a team I feels like the Mariners play only in April and September and always in Oakland. At least next year might be in Japan. That'll be fun! There's nothing like having to wake up around 4am to watch the Mariners begin their baseball season; that is, except for all the things that are like that. There are many things like that. Mostly things that involve waking up early. In fact, there's almost always something else that is like the thing to which you might utter "there's nothing like." What a dumb phrase.

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Mariners current draft spot: 4th

This game doesn't actually have much in the way of playoff implications. The Angels may wish for the Mariners to somehow sweep out the Rangers, but even that wouldn't do much. The Angels are five back with just six to play. What they actually have a not minuscule shot at is the wild card. Thanks to the stumbling Red Sox and Rays, the Angels are closer to that entry way, three games back.

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Mariners current draft spot: 4th

The Twins have lost nine in a row and are one of the few teams legitimately worse than the Mariners this season. The two clubs took almost opposite roads to the same destination as while the Mariners ended April and May at 28-26, the Twins were an appalling 17-36. Over the next two months the Mariners finally collapsed, including the epic 17-game losing streak and went... 17-36. Meanwhile, the Twins finally righted the ship and went 33-22. The Mariners hit the All Star Break at 43-48, the Twins at 41-48. And since then the Twins are 18-45. All that under the gaze of the American League's second highest attendance mark this season. Ouch.

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Mariners current draft spot: 4th

First of all, here's the current weather radar for the Cleveland area:

And the hour-by-hour chance of precipitation is listed at 90% by Weather Underground with chances of thunderstorms throughout the day. The tarp is already out, but the word is that they will play this game no matter what, which is an intriguing possibility, but in reality probably means they slog through some sprinkles, take a break for real rain at some point and call it after six or so. I kind of want them to postpone it, just for the hilarity of this one day side trip to Cleveland being completely for naught. Of course, it's perfectly sunny here in Seattle.

Mon 19 Sep 13:05
CHARLIE FURBUSH*	DAVID HUFF*

With the one game nature of this trip and a couple guys ailing, here's the penciled in lineup for today

Ichiro RF
Rodriguez SS
Carp 1B
Olivo C
Seager 2B
Pena DH
Liddi 3B
Robinson CF
Gimenez LF

Wedge should have DH'd Ichiro again and had Pena play right field. Why not? Seriously? What, is the league going to accuse him of throwing the game or something? Are Mariner fans, all two who will watch this, be upset? I'd find it entertaining and since this is a day game that I get to watch on TV (assuming it's on TV. Is it on TV?), I want to be entertained.

Also I guess blah blah, Charlie Furbush looking like a possibly decent back-end starter of late. Can he continue that while yada yada, you know the spiel. Just enjoy the game if that's your thing. No need to make something more out of it. It's baseball, and there's not much more Mariner baseball left in 2011 and that's good because this team is bad but also bad because that means the end of a familiar almost daily comfort and routine. But that can be good too. Examine your life. Could you be doing more? You could probably be doing more. You're reading this, so that means you could be doing more. A puppy died of neglect while you were reading this. You bastard.

Mariners current draft spot: 4th

I found it surprising that the Rangers check in with baseball's third-best rotation according to tRA, but C.J. Wilson, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison have all been quite solid for them and, importantly, they've avoided any pitfalls. In fact, their main five starting pitchers (all of whom have better than average tRAs) have taken all but five starts so far this season.

Do you know which player has the Rangers best park-adjusted wOBA, by an insane 60 points? Mike Napoli. Dear every person who wants to suckle on Mike Scioscia and the Angels, to you all I present Mike Napoli, his .428 wOBA* and Jeff Mathis and his .237 wOBA*. Also, dammit, Blue Jays.

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Mariners current draft spot: 4th

Great, the flippin' ducking Yankees. Which means we'll get to hear about 7,000 references to Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak again because that's an easy story. I cannot control (yet) what everybody in the media says, but I will issue this warning to LL commenters. Please just don't bring it up. Everyone is already aware of the rumors at the time and honestly they were that, rumors. You don't know for sure what the actual trade offer was. You don't. So please stop acting like it was a one-for-one choice between Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak. It may have been. You don't know. I don't know.

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