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Seattle Mariners News, Regular

Short Sunday Round-Up

What a hospitable man

For the last like two or three years, I have had people in my virtual ear, pleading for me to write more SEO-friendly headlines. At last I think I finally have it nailed down. It's always so fulfilling when you figure something out on your own. I'm going to call my mother! But after I write this post. Gotta write this post first, it's full of time-critical information.

  • Brendan Ryan was one of several current or future Mariners to pay a visit to this weekend's FanFest. At one point, a fan asked Ryan who his favorite player was growing up, and Ryan's response was "Joe McEwing". Of course Ryan's response was Joe McEwing. Joe McEwing played in 754 Major League games and posted a career WAR of 0.0. Why wouldn't he be somebody's favorite player?

    Here's the spooky part: Brendan Ryan is 29 years old. He has a career 78 OPS+. Through age 29, Joe McEwing had a 78 OPS+. After age 29, Joe McEwing had a 56 OPS+. Brendan Ryan will probably not do that. They're not actually copies of the same player. Did you think that they are? That's crazy! You're crazy.

  • This isn't exactly current, but I noticed a few days ago that Erasmo Ramirez threw 30⅓ innings in the Venezuelan winter league, with 20 strikeouts and one walk. One's first thought is that putting up 20 strikeouts and one walk is impressive. One's second thought might be that ratios in the VWL might be all weird-like. But the league this year had an average strikeout-to-walk ratio of 1.7. Ramirez's numbers were legitimately exceptional.

    Ramirez, of course, has built his whole prospect name around sexy-looking ratios. He doesn't have the sexy-looking stuff or the sexy-looking build. The guy's 21, though, and before he excelled in Venezuela, he did good things in Tacoma, throwing 67 percent strikes and missing an above-average number of bats. Ramirez is a guy worth having on your radar, and he could conceivably show up soon. While he's not intimidating, he's not a slop-thrower. He could make it.

    In keeping with the spooky theme from above, here's one Erasmo Ramirez over his career in the minors:

    HR/9: 0.6
    BB/9: 1.3
    K/9: 7.1

    And here's the other Erasmo Ramirez over his career in the minors:

    HR/9: 0.6
    BB/9: 1.6
    K/9: 7.1

    One of those Erasmo Ramirezes is a 21-year-old pitching prospect for the Mariners. The other of the Erasmo Ramirezes is a 35-year-old ex-journeyman. You could try to figure out which is which, but why spoil the fun? And more importantly, why even bother?

  • Miguel Olivo says he's in the best shape of his life after spending the offseason working out at home in Modesto. Miguel Olivo resides in Modesto and boasted about being in phenomenal shape. The city leaders are going to kick him out! Shit, this joke might be too subtle. I'm going to have to throw in a less subtle joke, just to be safe. More like Mo-dust-o! Am I right? Really, am I right? I've never been to Modesto. I assume that it's mostly dust and saloons.

    We're long past the point of making fun of the meaninglessness of a player saying he's in the best shape of his life. We all know to ignore it. Was shape ever even Olivo's issue, anyway? My problem's never been with the condition of Olivo's body so much as it's been with the condition of Olivo's synaptic clefts.

    I guess it's not a bad thing that Olivo's in good shape. Hey, all right, he's not a fatty. Who remembers what condition they've been in their entire lives, though? When someone says he's in the best shape of his life, does he mean he's in the best shape of his life, or does he mean he's in the best shape he's been in in a while? Miguel Olivo is a 33-year-old big leaguer. Miguel Olivo used to be a 25-year-old big leaguer. Is he in better shape now than he was then? If so, what does that say about him then? I'm going to stop writing this section now.

  • FanFest attendance on Saturday was 5,218 - down from 5,290 the opening Saturday a year ago. For the weekend, attendance was 9,774. I can't find last year's total attendance, but it was probably a little bit higher. For reference, FanFest attendance in 2010 was 17,299. That was a record. People these days are a little less optimistic. People these days have absorbed 196 losses in two years.

    I wonder if FanFest attendance might in any way be a reliable indicator of regular season attendance. I am guessing that there is a weak but statistically significant correlation. I am so confident in my guess that I am not going to investigate any further.

58 comments  |  3 recs | 

Nautical Twilight

In the middle of blinking

Lookout Landing was quiet today, but it wasn't quiet due to anything worrisome, or out of some sort of protest. Rather, it was quiet because Matthew's out of town and I was invited to attend the Mariners' annual pre-spring training conference and luncheon. I considered it something of an honor. Then I parked without getting ID'd. Then I entered without getting ID'd. Then I helped myself to lunch without getting ID'd. So it turns out today's event was effectively open to anyone from the president to the homeless.

You've probably already read about what was discussed. Larry Stone posted his coverage. Shannon Drayer posted her coverage. Greg Johns posted his coverage. And so on. There were also real-time tweets, and the conference was broadcast on Mariners.com. Unsurprisingly, nothing earth-shattering was revealed. Jack Zduriencik didn't pull back any curtains to show Joey Votto standing behind. It was basically a two-hour State of the Mariners address, given by a number of people representing the Mariners.

But there were a handful of interesting nuggets. I'll get to them in no particular order because I forgot to take notes. First, Rick Griffin confirmed that Franklin Gutierrez has added about 14 pounds since the end of last season, and that those are 14 pounds of muscle. Justin Smoak apparently worked himself into terrific shape as well, but Gutierrez is the bigger story, because one senses that Gutierrez's performance was more directly tied to his physical condition. Last season, Guti was practically frail. Now he's not frail. Griffin said that Guti hasn't experienced any symptoms in several months and has his diet under control, so hopefully our comments section is done hearing from the armchair naturopaths.

Eric Wedge isn't just thinking about removing Ichiro from the leadoff slot - it sounds like he's probably going to remove Ichiro from the leadoff slot. If you're a reader of Internet blogs, you're probably smart enough to know that by and large lineup arrangement doesn't make much of a difference, but this is at least psychologically significant just because Ichiro has been entrenched up there for so long. Other leadoff candidates were named. Dustin Ackley was one of them. It's going to be Ackley. It's totally going to be Ackley. I mean, it has to be Ackley, right? Wedge mentioned Chone Figgins which made me want to laugh, but it wasn't an appropriate venue.

Figgins' hip is all better, by the way, in case you were worried. You can stop sending all those cards and gift baskets. And Casper Wells is over his balance problems, although I'm still not convinced we have a good explanation for where they came from in the first place, and there's nothing more reassuring than mysterious neurological pathology.

In the surprise to end all surprises, Zduriencik didn't go into any detail with regard to Prince Fielder. You might think that he could open up now, since the sweepstakes are over, but opening up about how those sweepstakes went could work against him come the next opportunity. It doesn't sound like any other transactions are imminent, although I guess the team's interested in adding some kind of veteran position player. If you were wondering who's going to be this year's Adam Kennedy, there's a good chance he's not yet in the organization. Kevin Millwood will be this year's Adam Kennedy for the pitchers. So I guess that makes him this year's...Jamey Wright?

Jesus Montero's going to catch. The team loves his opposite-field power. Duh. Miguel Olivo's still going to catch more, at least for the first while. Trying to think of other things...Figgins can expect to play pretty much everywhere in a super-utility role. It's what he used to do, so maybe that'll make him comfortable. Of course, another thing he used to do is hit. Eric Wedge is a prolific blinker. In a side conversation, Tony Blengino told me about what Dazzy Vance used to do. Look at this Baseball-Reference page, about 1924. Look at the strikeouts. Vance led the National League in K/9, at 7.6. In second place was Burleigh Grimes, at 3.9. There were eight teams in the NL that year. There were a total of 3,381 strikeouts. Vance was responsible for 8% of them.

Anyway, back on topic, the theme of the day was basically growth and development. So much emphasis was put on how the team is doing things the right way, or in the way that the team believes is the right way, by building from within. Zduriencik was very adamant about this. I guess he has to be. Something he said that stuck with me was that baseball isn't like basketball or football. You can't turn a team around with one guy. (He cited Andrew Luck.) I knew that already, and most of you knew that already, but it's worth keeping in mind. It's so critical to understand the limited impact that individual players can have in this game.

Wedge was optimistic. Wedge has always been optimistic. Zduriencik was a little less optimistic, as far as 2012 is concerned. His big quote that people kept talking about was "This is going to be a challenging year at the big league level. Let's not kid ourselves." As Mike Salk pointed out, it lends itself well to a team slogan. Mariners Baseball: Let's Not Kid Ourselves.

But as much as people are bracing for 2012 to be another development year, it should be an exciting development year, and there's no question that things are looking up. The organization has made tremendous progress, as hard as that might be to believe if you just look at the surface. The Mariners' day will come. The day brings no promises, but it'll be brighter.

113 comments  |  6 recs | 

On Safeco Field’s Fences

Coulda been a dinger :(

Most of the time, I don't think we have much use for the Mariners.com mailbags. Which isn't by any means to say that Greg Johns doesn't do the Lord's work - I can't imagine sifting through the questions he must receive every week - but those things are usually geared to a different audience. If you're a Lookout Landing reader, you probably know a lot about the Mariners. You probably know enough about the Mariners.

This time around, though, there was one thing that caught my eye. Somebody wrote in asking that old question about whether the Mariners would ever consider moving in the fences. Safeco's a pitcher-friendly, run-suppressing park, see, and by moving in the fences, it could play more average. It could appeal more to hitters. Dingers! There would be more dingers!

Johns went about investigating. The answer, or at least parts of the answer:

I was told that since moving into Safeco Field in 1999, club officials have regularly discussed the topic and explored it with both statistical analysis and discussions with various field managers, coaches and baseball operations staff.

The team's stance is that if and when such a change would benefit the club, it would be open to moving in the fences [...]

Safeco, right now, is a fairly extreme pitcher-friendly park. It's been that way since the beginning, and the only significant changes I can recall involved the hitter backdrop. But it might not always be this way. Safeco could change, because the Mariners are open to change, and if the Mariners ever feel like making a change, they can basically make the change that they want.

Of course, that second thing - according to Johns, the Mariners would consider adjusting the dimensions if they thought it would help the team. But the Mariners are also building their team to suit the current dimensions, or at least they ought to be. So that's a hurdle, if you're someone who really wants different walls. If the Mariners will only change the fences if it helps a team that's presumably been built for other fences, then the Mariners probably won't change the fences.

For now, the prospect of Safeco playing in a different way is a distant possibility. I think they should temporarily add a hill and a flagpole to welcome the Astros to the AL West, just because hey look how fuckin stupid this is, but that wouldn't have anything to do with the fences so that's a different conversation. I also think the pitcher's mound should be glass and there should be a man looking out from inside, like a turret on a B-17. The hitter would be looking at the pitcher, and then he'd be like, what??

72 comments  |  6 recs | 

Randy Johnson, Dan Wilson To Join Mariners Hall Of Fame

Eventual member of the Mariners Hall of Fame?

I like individual team halls of fame. They're significant enough to confer a high honor, but insignificant enough to avoid all the bickering and heated debate that surrounds their...dad? Mothership? If a player is inducted into a team hall of fame, it is neat. If a player is not inducted into a team hall of fame, it's really just not that important.

The Seattle Mariners Hall of Fame, at present, has four members. There's Alvin Davis, who was known as "Mr. Mariner" when "Mr. Mariner" was a devastating insult. There's Jay Buhner, who resides in the catacombs beneath Safeco Field and emerges when he senses a tremor in the floor. There's Dave Niehaus, who never played a single inning for the team. And there's Edgar Martinez, who was and is awesome in every way.

The Seattle Mariners Hall of Fame will soon have a fifth and sixth member. According to Greg Johns and countless other people, Randy Johnson and Dan Wilson will be inducted on Saturday, July 28th. Randy Johnson and Dan Wilson are basically members of the Seattle Mariners Hall of Fame now, but they'll become official members in six months. Think of this like a trade, pending a six-month physical. A physical that neither Johnson nor Wilson can fail unless we become aware of gambling allegations. Not that I'm saying there will be gambling allegations. Hands off this passage, Bleacher Report.

Randy Johnson was a Mariner from 1989 to 1998. Over that span he posted a 128 ERA+, but that includes the early part when he was still developing. In Randy Johnson's first year with the Mariners, he had 104 strikeouts and 70 walks in 131 innings. In Randy Johnson's last year with the Mariners, he had 213 strikeouts and 60 walks in 160 innings. Randy Johnson got a lot better. He went from terrifying to terrifying and dominant. Johnson has the most strikeouts in Mariners franchise history, and for a long time one of my favorite facts was that Jamie Moyer sat in second. Jamie Moyer now sits in third. Damn (bless) you, Felix. Moyer could always return in an attempt to re-claim his position!

So, Johnson is an obvious fit. A player doesn't get much more beloved than Randy Johnson. Dan Wilson is also an obvious fit, albeit for different reasons. Wilson was a Mariner from 1994 to 2005. Following are the main ways that I remember Dan Wilson:

(1) He was a Mariner for a while.

(2) He dropped down a lot of sac bunts, or at least an amount of sac bunts that one baseball card company thought was a lot one time.

(3) He used to be a hockey goalie.

(4) He was and is so darn nice.

(5) My mom thought he was the cutest Mariners player in 1999 or 2000. He doesn't seem to have aged a day. In our limited interaction I have refrained from letting him know that my mom thinks he's cute.

(6) He wasn't a good hitter or an awful hitter.

(7) He walked off the field in 2005 with what turned out to be an ACL tear that in a way ended his career.

Strictly based on statistics, Dan Wilson probably doesn't belong in a team hall of fame. But team halls of fame aren't strictly based on statistics, and the fact of the matter is that, when you think about the good Mariners teams, you usually end up thinking about Dan Wilson at some point. He was there, and he was popular, and now he's being honored, and nobody is upset about that. Team halls of fame have it figured out.

140 comments  |  5 recs | 

Mariners Radio Team Remaining The Same In 2012

It was, of course, a little over a year ago that we lost the fantastic Dave Niehaus, and soon thereafter, or long thereafter, I don't remember, the Mariners announced that, for the 2011 regular season, they would replace Niehaus on the radio not with one voice, but with seven voices - seven familiar, rotating voices from the Mariners' past. Rick Rizzs would assume the complete play-by-play, and the guests would help him out. It was intended as a temporary solution, as the team didn't want to make somebody try to replace a beloved, departed legend.

Many figured that the Mariners would consider hiring another voice full-time after the year. After the Niehaus wound had healed not completely, but sufficiently. Turns out those people were wrong. Or maybe they were right, and the Mariners did consider it, but the Mariners aren't doing it. Announced today:

The Mariners will again use a rotating group of seven broadcasters to work alongside veteran play-by-play man Rick Rizzs on their radio network next season, according to Randy Adamack, the team's vice president of communications.

The lineup, in case you'd forgotten, listed in no particular order but with Ken Levine at the top because he's awesome:

Ken Levine
Ken Wilson
Ron Fairly
Dave Valle
Dave Henderson
Dan Wilson
Jay Buhner

All of them have or go by first names that are three or four letters long. Weird.

The plan seems to be to do this for one more year before probably committing to a full-timer. Of course, we've heard that before, but whatever, it's not like I'm going to accuse the Mariners of lying. When they do get around to looking at potential full-timers, I don't know if they'll look at names from within this group, outside of this group, or both, and I don't know how much play-by-play responsibility said full-timer would have. It's all very complicated, to me. I know there are a lot of people who'd love to hear them some Mike Curto, but those people probably shouldn't get their hopes up just yet.

As for the 2012 plan - I'm gonna be honest with you, I don't listen to the Mariners on the radio very often. I obviously listen to the Mariners on the radio when I'm in my car, but I'm seldom in my car during games, and as much as I'd be open to listening to the radio broadcast with the TV on mute, there's a syncing issue there, and besides, I like Dave Sims. So I can't speak with a lot of authority on how well the rotating group did in 2011. But from what I did hear, I have few complaints, although I liked some of the guys more than some of the other guys. Levine's my favorite, but people have different tastes, and Ken Wilson's voice is like the caramel they drop on top of the biscuit in a Twix commercial. So creamy, so smooth.

If you're a Mariners fan who listens to the radio way more than I do, feel free to chime in in the comments, because you know better. I have the platform and the paycheck, but you have the superior knowledge.*

* haha!

125 comments  | 

Mariners Announce Hot Sexy Spring Schedule

spring

Over the last little while, I've noticed a bunch of other baseball teams announcing their schedules for next year's spring training. I've waited impatiently for the Mariners to provide their version of news I don't care about and that, truthfully, most of you don't care about, and today the press release finally arrived in my email. Let's break this shit down, chronologically!

February 11
Pitchers and catchers report to Arizona so that doctors can look at them and occasionally touch them.

February 12
Pitchers and catchers begin workouts with a renewed sense of feeling personally violated.

February 17
Position players report to Arizona so that doctors can look at them and occasionally touch them.

February 18
Full-squad workouts begin and position players ask pitchers for advice on how they can move past the violation and indignity they felt the day before.

March 2
Cactus League schedule kicks off with the M's visiting the A's. I use the word "visiting" because I think it conveys the right message about how important this game is.

March 3
M's play the A's at home. I use the word "play" because I think it also conveys the right message about how important this game is. Teams are always playing. They're playing! How do we ever take this seriously!

March 4
M's and Padres play annual charity game, for which I'm already preparing jokes. What I just today learned from the press release is that the charity game "benefits over two dozen local causes in the Peoria area." The charity game benefits at least 25 different causes. Exactly how much money does the charity game usually bring in? Either this shit is secretly lucrative or each different cause ends up with a $25 gift certificate to Staples.

March 5 - March 21
Continued hot sexy intersquad Cactus League baseball action.

March 20
Spring begins.

March 22
Travel day to Japan! Field trip, yay!

March 23 - March 24
Off days in Japan, when Ichiro will develop another ulcer from having to answer too many questions, and Randy Messenger will sneak into one of the team tour groups in the hopes of blending in and being taken back to America.

March 25 - March 26
M's play two games against teams from the Japanese leagues. At this point it will be considered whether the Japanese leagues provide a more appropriate level of competition.

March 27
Off day in Japan, when some Mariners begin to suspect Randy Messenger, and Randy Messenger pretends to be Chance Ruffin. Ruffin cannot answer for himself because he is back in the hotel, feeling dreadfully homesick.

March 28 - March 29
Major League Baseball's regular season kicks off as the M's play the A's in the Tokyo Dome. The two games will begin at 7:05pm local time, or 3:05am Pacific time, which is the time right in between being up too late and being up too early. It would be wise to start considering now whether or not you will attempt to sleep. I have not yet decided.

March 30
Travel day back to stupid America. Mariners players will tell all their friends and relatives about how the trip changed them and opened their eyes, and they will make plans to introduce elements of Japanese culture into their day-to-day living.

March 31 - April 4
Awkwardly continued hot sexy intersquad Cactus League baseball action for some reason!

44 comments  |  11 recs | 

Hot Sexy Danny Hultzen Update

Part of Danny Hultzen's head

It's been some time since we last checked in with Danny Hultzen, so I thought it was time that we check in with Danny Hultzen. I've seen his name mentioned in a few different places lately so here I will put it all together. The things that I've seen on Danny Hultzen. I will put those things together. I will not put all things together. I am not here to build a katamari of the universe.

First thing: as you know, Hultzen has been pitching with the Peoria Javelinas in the Arizona Fall League. He's thrown 19⅓ innings over six appearances, allowing three runs and one homer while generating five walks and 18 strikeouts. I do not present these statistics because you should read into them; you should not read into them. You should read none of the way into them. I present these statistics as filler because they seem relevant to the discussion, and I feel weird when a post ends up with a small word count.

Second thing: an awesome Danish(??) company called TrackMan has been following the AFL and analyzing the play-by-play in order to provide some super interesting information. Among that information, they have Hultzen throwing his average fastball at 92.5mph, topping out at 95.1mph. On the one hand, Hultzen has been throwing those fastballs over shorter appearances than he'll get as a starter, maybe inflating his velocity, but on the other hand, it's not like he arrived in the AFL fully stretched out. So Hultzen can bring some heat. I highly recommend visiting that link and going through all the pages. Look for mentions of Brian Moran, Adam Moore, Nick Franklin, and Chih-Hsien Chiang. Brian Moran is a player in the Mariners' system. TrackMan either incorrectly labels Adam Moore as a Brave, or the Danes know something we don't.

Third thing: a short while ago, Jon Heyman tweeted that Hultzen will have a chance to make the Mariners' rotation in spring training. We've heard this talk before, and it doesn't mean much to say that Hultzen will have a chance - a chance doesn't have to be a good chance - but it is an indication of how high the Mariners are on him, and how close they think he is to being Major League-ready. The Mariners selected Hultzen in part because he was so close, and nothing has changed. I guess now that I think about it, I don't know why anything would have changed.

Fourth thing: Danny Knobler talked to two scouts in Arizona, and they both said they like Hultzen more than Gerrit Cole, who you'll recall was drafted first overall. We're talking about the subjective opinions of two unidentified people based on very limited information, so don't make more of this than you should, but I will say that Hultzen's star seems to be getting brighter and brighter. People who see him love him.

Fifth thing: Shannon Drayer caught up with Adam Moore, who has been catching Hultzen. What did Moore have to say about the guy?

"Uh, yeah. It is not a secret with [Danny] Hultzen," he said. "That guys is good. Not only with talent and stuff, he understands what he wants to do out there. His fastball and changeup command are ridiculous. His slider is real good, too. He is the real deal."

You would expect Moore to have good things to say about Hultzen, just because they're members of the same organization and it's the polite thing to do, but the extent to which Moore went to praise Hultzen is telling. He specifically mentioned Hultzen's command and preparation. The former is important for obvious reasons, and the latter is important, too. "Smart" can be a synonym for "finesse-throwing" or "hittable", but it seems Hultzen has a good idea of sequencing. We've had talented Mariners pitchers who were not so good at sequencing. I doubt that'll be an issue with Hultzen. He should be happy to mix up speeds and locations.

It's important that we don't get ahead of ourselves with Danny Hultzen. He still has a ways to go, and if we start counting on him as a certain contributor now, all he'll really be able to do is meet or disappoint. But Danny Hultzen is coming, Danny Hultzen is close, and Danny Hultzen stands a chance to be real good. Yay, Danny Hultzen.

29 comments  |  3 recs | 

Michael Pineda, Dustin Ackley Combine For Zero Rookie Of The Year Awards

As I'm sure most of you are already aware, earlier today the Baseball Writers' Association of America announced its winners of the 2011 Rookie of the Year awards. The American League winner was not Michael Pineda or Dustin Ackley, nor was it expected to be, given Pineda's second half and Ackley's arrival in the middle of June. This story is such a priority for me that I'm writing about it now even though the winners were announced at 11 in the morning, and even though writing about baseball is my job. Still, I might as well address it with some words, but not too many of them.

Pineda finished fifth in the voting, with zero first-place votes. Ackley finished sixth in the voting, with one first-place vote. Mark Trumbo finished second in the voting, with more first-place votes* than he had walks in April, June, July, or September.

* five

Why this is good news
This isn't really good news, and there's not a convincing case to be made that it is, but you could argue that Pineda or Ackley might have cost the Mariners more down the road had one of them won the award. It's just another thing that the player would've had on his resume, and just another thing the player's agent might have brought up to try and get more money. Now we don't have to worry about that, not that any one of us was worrying about that.

Why this is bad news
Well it would've been nice to see a Mariner win the award, especially given that both Pineda and Ackley were deserving. Pineda finished tops among AL rookies in Fangraphs' WAR, while Ackley tied for second. Pineda broke camp with the roster and pitched his ass off for most of the season, and the RoY would've been neat recognition for both him and the organization. Additionally, the voting results suggest that the BBWAA is still married to ERA and W/L, which, okay, future awards.

Why this is irrelevant news
It's the Rookie of the Year, which is an individual award, and I don't even think Pineda or Ackley are too broken up over the results given that I doubt either expected to win. Furthermore, the Rookie of the Year voting is done based on past results, rather than on projected future results, and it's those projected future results we really care about. It's also those projected future results that allow Pineda and Ackley to stand out.

Jeremy Hellickson won the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year, but his numbers do not project that well for the future. Mark Trumbo finished second, but his numbers do not project that well for the future. Pineda and Ackley's numbers project very well for the future. Pineda is a high-strikeout, low-walk starting pitcher, while Ackley is an on-base second baseman with some power and average-to-plus defense.

Nevermind the award voting; in Michael Pineda and Dustin Ackley, the Seattle Mariners graduated two of 2011's best-looking rookies when it comes to future value. That's what's really important. This past season, Michael Pineda and Dustin Ackley established themselves as members of the Mariners' core. This is a developing core that could eventually take the Mariners to great heights.

Congratulations to Jeremy Hellickson on winning himself some hardware. The unattractive young man posted an impressively low ERA that was only in part due to a terrific team defense behind him. I'm happy with our guys.

19 comments  |  1 recs | 


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