Popular way to refer to occasion:
Pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Not popular way to refer to occasion:
Pitchers and catchers have entire bodies physically examined.

Very unpopular way to refer to occasion:
Mariners insist that Felix Hernandez sees doctor.

I don't intend to bury Matthew's post below, nor do I feel like a whole lot has to be said about today anyway. Mariners pitchers and catchers are in Arizona, and today they got looked at. All of them were presumably given a clean bill of health. Maybe one of them was given a clean bill of health and has tuberculosis. Doctors don't know everything. Soon, pitchers will pitch to catchers. Some other position players are already in Arizona, too, and they've been doing position player-y things.

I don't think the day that pitchers and catchers report to spring training ought to be a holiday, like so many people say they do. I'm guessing those people are only half-serious. The day that pitchers and catchers report does not mark the return of baseball. There will not be baseball tomorrow. There will not be baseball in a week. There will not be baseball, the way we want there to be baseball.

But I think what this day stands for is the return to thinking about baseball in terms of the day-to-day. It's still the offseason, in that it isn't the season, but we're not thinking about big roster moves. We're not thinking about trade options, or how the Mariners might look in 2014, or anything like that. It's time we start thinking about the day's events, and what they might mean for tomorrow's events.

Welcome back to the routine. It's probably going to take you a little while to adjust. It's kind of spring training for everybody.

Earlier Thursday, Ken Rosenthal published a column about how the Mariners ought to move Chone Figgins back to leadoff. This post is not intended as a direct response to what Rosenthal wrote, since I've heard the idea from a number of people, but there will necessarily be some overlap.

Chone Figgins has a bad contract. At first, it was not a bad contract. Or maybe it has always been a bad contract, but at first, we didn't believe that it was a bad contract. Figgins looked like a useful and valuable player to have. Then he became Chone Figgins as we understand him today. The Chone Figgins with a bad contract.

The Mariners are not alone in having a bad contract. Without checking, I'm going to assume that every team in baseball has at least one bad contract. Not all bad contracts are created the same, and Figgins' contract is worse than some other bad contracts. But it's also better than some other bad contracts. Hey there, Vernon Wells, won't you please stay a while? I would like to discuss your bad contract. Or as you call it, your super awesome unbelievably amazing contract.

Figgins, needless to say, has not turned out. When you have a player in Figgins' position, there are people who think the team should just cut its losses and eat the rest of the contract. There are other people who are okay with keeping the player around, but know that his best days are behind him. And there are still other people who insist on the possibility of a revival.

A player with a bad contract was given a big contract for a reason, right? Who's to say players can't rebound?

You and I probably figure that Chone Figgins is a lost cause, and that his greatest hope now is becoming a utility guy of moderate use. But something I've heard from several people, most recently Rosenthal, is that Figgins might bounce back if he's returned to the leadoff slot, where he hit with the Angels. Chone Figgins is a leadoff guy. The Mariners didn't let him hit leadoff. No wonder he's fallen flat!

It's an appealing concept, because the idea of Figgins being good again would change so many things. I guess it wouldn't change that many things, but it would change at least one thing, and presumably a handful of others. Chone Figgins coming back from the dead would be a miracle, just as anybody coming back from the dead would be a miracle.

But pardon me if I think that sounds a little too simplistic. A little too easy. To assert that Figgins could rebound as the leadoff guy is to assert that this has been a matter of psychology, not tools, and to assert that the difference between batting first and batting second is so great that it made Figgins sufficiently uncomfortable that he became a bad player.

There's no doubt in my mind that Figgins believes he could be better as leadoff. Figgins kind of has to believe that. He has to believe he can be fixed. And the last time he was good, he was leadoff. The two are connected in his mind. To Figgins, the thing that changed between Anaheim and Seattle is his spot in the batting order, so that must have a lot to do with his struggles.

But there are times when I believe in a player's explanation, and there are times when I don't. I want Figgins to be good. I want him to succeed as a Mariner, because of course I do. But I can't bring myself to buy this one.

Look at some of the lines in Rosenthal's article. It's said that batting second presents a different kind of challenge. It's said that batting second behind Ichiro presents a uniquely different kind of challenge. Perhaps Figgins has struggled because he's tried to adapt to that. But:

"It would be great to go back to leadoff and do that again," Figgins said. "If not, I have to change my mindset as a '2' hitter. I haven't really changed my mindset to be a '2' hitter. I've stuck with being a patient hitter."

Figgins hasn't changed his mindset after two years. He's "stuck with" being the hitter that he was. Except in terms of results. The results have been way worse.

So maybe it's sticking with that old approach that's gotten him in trouble? That seems to be the sentiment.

"Being in that spot and understanding that Ichiro is an aggressive player - that's what makes him great - I need to understand that when he is aggressive, I need to be aggressive, too," Figgins said. "A lot of times I get behind in the count too much."

First-pitch Strikes:

2009: 57%
2010: 58%
2011: 57%

Behind 0-1:

2009: 49%
2010: 50%
2011: 50%

Two-strike counts:

2009: 53%
2010: 51%
2011: 51%

In 2009, after getting ahead 1-0, Figgins batted .333. After falling behind 0-1, he batted .259. The last two years, after getting ahead 1-0, Figgins has batted .251. After falling behind 0-1, he's batted .212. This is about more than getting ahead and falling behind. This is about quality of contact.

Something else we can look at - what about when Figgins hasn't been hitting directly behind Ichiro? When leading off an inning in 2009, Figgins batted .275. When leading off an inning over the last two years, Figgins has batted .213. When leading off an inning, Figgins hasn't had to be in the mindset of a No. 2 hitter. It hasn't mattered. He's been bad.

I get uneasy about these things. On this matter, I have one opinion. Baseball people involved, and baseball people not involved, probably have another opinion. A lot of them probably do, at least. And I'm not so confident in myself that I think I know more about how baseball works than they do. If baseball people think that Chone Figgins could bounce back by being returned to the leadoff slot, we can't just ignore that outright.

But color me skeptical. I won't be mad if they try. There's probably not a lot of harm in trying, when Figgins plays. Again, one figures the Mariners aren't even getting within sniffing distance of the playoffs, making this a development and experiment season. Batting Figgins leadoff would be an experiment. But I've done a lot of experiments. Even the ones where I know how they're supposed to work out, they haven't always worked out. If Figgins' problem this whole time has been batting order position, we can learn from that, but chances are it's not that simple. It so infrequently is.

This post does not really have anything to do with the Mariners. Not every post needs to have anything to do with the Mariners, just because this is a Mariners blog. Stop being so one-track minded. I did. And now I'm writing this post.

There's lots of buzz that Seattle is working hard to get an NBA team and an NHL team. We've heard such buzz before, but it's seemed unusually intense of late. They wouldn't be getting a new NBA team or a new NHL team. Presumably, they would be getting the Sacramento Kings and the Phoenix Coyotes, respectively. There's no guarantee that Sacramento moves, and there's no guarantee that Phoenix moves, but my admittedly limited understanding is that their current situations could be best described with a word rhyming with brother-sucked. Actually that's gross. 'Nother-lucked. There we go, kind of!

Matthew and I talked about this on the podcast we recorded this morning (stay tuned brother-suckers). Let's go and get ahead of ourselves. Let's say Seattle gets an NBA team, and let's say Seattle gets an NHL team. I'm assuming that the NBA team would be called the Sonics, or the SuperSonics. I'm also assuming that, if it wouldn't, whatever, I don't care about basketball. What of the NHL team? What would the hockey team be called?

You wouldn't keep them as the Coyotes. They wouldn't be starting over from scratch as a roster, but they'd be starting over from scratch as a franchise. You wouldn't want to go back to the Metropolitans, since there's already another Metropolitans in baseball, and also that name sucks. As I talked about in the podcast and since I'm not above using ideas over again, 'Lahar' is a non-starter and 'Canucks' would be hilariously dickish but probably forbidden.

So, what are your ideas? If you were in charge for some reason, what would you name the hockey team? Why would you name it that? If offering a suggestion, please also offer an explanation.

Yesterday, while I was writing about the Mariners signing Hong-Chih Kuo, I found out that the Mariners were also signing Shawn Camp. My post was entirely dedicated to Kuo and I had other things I had to do afterwards, so I allowed Matthew to handle the Camp post. I very much appreciate his help. However, there are a few things I want to talk about that are related to Camp, now that I have a moment. These are those things. These are most of those things, anyway, since I've probably forgotten one or two.

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In 2008, the Tampa Bay Rays allowed 671 runs and made the World Series. In 2007, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays allowed 944 runs and lost 96 games. In 2008, the Rays were fantastic, but in 2007, the Devil Rays were a complete and utter embarrassment. They were an embarrassment with a terrible defense and a putrid bullpen. The Devil Rays' bullpen that year posted a 6.16 ERA. The whole bullpen, a 6.16 ERA, over almost 500 innings. It is the highest team bullpen ERA I can find, besting (worsting?) 5.97 from the 1996 Detroit Tigers. Remember the 2010 Arizona Diamondbacks? Remember how those Diamondbacks had a godawful bullpen? Their bullpen ERA was 5.74. In a hitter-friendly park. Tampa Bay plays in a quietly pitcher-friendly park.

There was Al Reyes. There was Gary Glover. There was Casey Fossum. There were other guys. And there was Shawn Camp. Shawn Camp made 50 relief appearances for the 2007 Devil Rays. He posted a 7.20 ERA. That was not the worst individual ERA in the bullpen. Not by a long shot.

Shawn Camp is a survivor.

***

There's been some...well I don't really want to call it "concern," but there have been words about how signing Shawn Camp further reduces the odds that Chance Ruffin or Steve Delabar break camp with the Mariners (unless they break Camp! haaaaaa). It's true, those odds have presumably been reduced. It's also not such a bad thing that they have.

Ruffin has 15 career Major League appearances. He was okay, but not outstanding. He has 13 career triple-A appearances. He was okay, but not outstanding. There are surely things he could work on out of the spotlight. And as good a story as Delabar is, and as much as one can imagine him finding success with his stuff, in the minors last year he walked 40 batters in 56 innings. That's bad, and we don't know that he's ready for the bigs.

Both Ruffin and Delabar could probably use some more minor league seasoning. And even if you believe that they're ready right now, what's the problem with reliever depth? Ruffin and Delabar have options. They're hardly blocked. They'll get promoted if they earn it. It's not like teams ever go through a whole year with just seven relievers. It's not like the Mariners won't be thinking about trading relievers during the summer.

Shawn Camp might be kind of a weird signing for a team like the Mariners, but don't overstate the negative consequences of the move. It's practically harmless.

***

Hong-Chih Kuo has hit a home run. It was an impressive home run, hit off a good pitcher. Shawn Camp has one career at bat. He has one career hit.

True, Camp has two career plate appearances. In his first, he put down a sacrifice bunt. Then, on May 23, 2010, Camp was pitching in a blowout and batted against Diamondbacks reliever Saul Rivera. We're back to the 2010 Diamondbacks bullpen again. Camp took a first-pitch ball, then swung at a high fastball and lifted a flare over short. It fell in safely, giving Camp a 1.000 batting average he's been able to preserve.

Here's how Camp responded:

I've since identified that as Shawn Camp Face. Here it is. Here it is. Here it is. Shawn Camp makes that face a lot. Get used to that face.

***

An alarming trend is that Shawn Camp's strikeout rate has declined each season since 2008. Last season he posted a lower strikeout rate than Jeff Francis and Tyler Chatwood. His strikeout rate was barely higher than Blake Beavan's. That seems bad. This might help:

2008-2009: 81.8% contact rate
2010-2011: 82.2%

Maybe it doesn't. It helped me, a little. Sure, Camp's strikeouts were down last year. But his contact rate wasn't meaningfully higher than it was in 2009. He hasn't all of a sudden become super easy to hit.

Let's look at it a different way. Camp's basically a righty specialist, right? He's not a guy you want facing many lefties? Here's how he's done against righties:

2008: 75.8% contact rate
2009: 80.5%
2010: 78.2%
2011: 79.0%

No trend in there. The 2008 number stands out, but the 2008 number is based on a pretty small sample. The last three years, Camp's been more or less the same. He throws strikes, he misses some bats, and he gets some grounders. Against righties. Let's not acknowledge what he does against lefties. Let's just not talk about that.

A few days ago, while walking by a McDonald's, Ms. Jeff decided to tell me about how McNuggets are made, or at least about how she thinks that McNuggets are made. I don't know how much of her story is true, and it's possible that all of her story is true, and hearing her story made me want to throw up. What follow below are some nuggets, but they are not McNuggets. They will not make anybody want to throw up, probably. They will also not make you fat and unattractive if consumed in large quantities. Sample these nuggets as often as you like! When doing so please remember to refresh a lot so I can get a raise.

***

As you've heard, the Mariners signed relievers Hong-Chih Kuo and Shawn Camp to Major League contracts. There was some possibility that Kuo would sign a minor league contract, but he did not sign a minor league contract, as he signed a Major League contract. Assuming that Kuo doesn't come completely undone in spring training, it's looking like the bullpen is mostly sorted out.

There'll be Brandon League to close. There'll be Kuo and George Sherrill from the left side. There'll be Camp from the right side, and probably Shawn Kelley, and probably Tom Wilhelmsen. Then maybe the seventh slot goes to Blake Beavan or Charlie Furbush. The bullpen isn't completely closed off and guys like Aaron Heilman or Josh Kinney could earn a spot given the breaks, but two slots just disappeared today in one press release. Just like with the Tigers' Prince Fielder press release lolololol

***

To make roster room for the relievers, the Mariners designated both Chris Gimenez and Mike Wilson for assignment. Neither comes as much of a shock although I'm still trying to figure out who Yoervis Medina is. The thing about these moves is that both Gimenez and Wilson could clear waivers and remain in the organization so it's not yet time to say goodbye.

If Gimenez gets claimed, it'll be because he's a catcher who can play other positions. Last year he started at catcher, first base and left field. If Gimenez doesn't get claimed, it'll be because he hasn't demonstrated that he can really hit. He's been passable in triple-A. He's been not-passable in the Majors. He's another guy with a lower career OPS than Hong-Chih Kuo.

If Wilson gets claimed, it'll be because some front office doesn't believe in quad-A hitters. Last year in Tacoma he put up a .973 OPS. If Wilson doesn't get claimed, it'll be because last year in Tacoma Carlos Peguero put up a .923 OPS, and Michael Saunders put up an .864 OPS, and Ryan Langerhans put up a 1.000 OPS. Out of context, wow, Mike Wilson! In context, oh, hey, Mike Wilson. I would personally like to see what Wilson could do with 500 at bats, but Major League Baseball isn't an experiment over which I have complete control. I wanted much more to see what Wily Mo Pena could do with 500 at bats and that didn't pan out. Maybe it's also Mike Wilson's time to turn his attention to Asia.

***

According to Greg Johns, some catcher named Christian Carmichael tested positive for PEDs. I guess I don't know if he tested positive for PEDs or PED. I don't know a whole lot because who on Earth is Christian Carmichael? I bet he's the guy who catches Yoervis Medina. Baseball-Reference tells me he's 19 and Hawaiian and the guy the Mariners took in the sixth round in 2010. The Lookout Landing archives tell me we've actually written his name before. But he's completely, and I mean completely slipped my mind since the draft. Because of the PED or PEDs, he won't play for a while in 2012, so be sure to account for that in wherever you account for these things.

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We'll close with some Hong-Chih Kuo bat flip .gifs.

Continue reading this post »

I've been sitting on this topic for a few days. It occurred to me not long ago that this is something I should probably write about. When the Mariners traded for Mike Carp, he was a first baseman. We all assumed he would be a first baseman, or a DH. Now he's an outfielder. Mike Carp didn't only play left field in 2011 - according to Eric Wedge's words, and according to the roster picture, he's going to play a lot of left field in 2012. Casper Wells is probably going to play a lot of left field in 2012, too, but there will be Carp. Plenty of Carp.

Ordinarily, what happens when I have a writing topic in mind for a number of days is that the post starts to take form in my head. The gears whirr, and an outline develops. I come up with the right intro. I come up with the right body of evidence. I come up with a snappy conclusion or something. That didn't happen here. I came up with this intro. As for the rest, well, you'll see the rest.

The idea of Mike Carp in left field is not a particularly pleasant one at first, at least relative to what one would like in left field. As we've been talking about for years, left field defense in Safeco might actually be more important than left field defense in most other parks. Carp was a first baseman before he was an outfielder. That's usually a bad sign. Carp was never thought to be gifted in the field, and that was at an easier position.

It's true that Carp isn't quite the schlub that he used to be. Before last season, he whipped himself into magnificent shape. It's all anybody wanted to talk about. He's still in good shape now. Maybe better shape. I saw him last week and he looked a hell of a lot more fit than I am, and I'm a professional baseball blogger. These are pretty high standards.

But outfield defense isn't just about the shape that you're in. It relies on instincts. I don't know much about Carp's outfield instincts. It relies on experience. Carp has fair but limited outfield experience. It relies on footspeed. Carp, even now, does not have very good footspeed. His career high for steals is six. His career high for triples is two. Also, look at him run. He's not a burner.

I spent a little time going through Carp's MLB.com video highlights. His defensive highlights. I wanted to see if anything would stand out to me. Then I realized it's not fair to just look at a guy's video highlights. A guy's video highlights will make him look better than he is, because they generally capture his best plays. There isn't a video highlight for "Mike Carp watches double bounce ten feet away." Carp did make a handful of full-extension diving catches. Those are always a kick, and not to be completely ignored.

The name I keep coming back to, for whatever reason, is Logan Morrison. Trust me, this is unscientific. It's basically a gut feeling if you want to go ahead and ignore this whole paragraph. Morrison was a first baseman. He became an outfielder. He does not seem to be a very good outfielder at all. Defensive stats and everything, yeah, and none of us regularly watches the Marlins because nobody regularly watches the Marlins. But I have to believe that Logan Morrison, as a defensive left fielder, is pretty far below average.

Of course, take a guy like Josh Willingham. Willingham was a lot of things, but he was a catcher before he was an outfielder. He seems to have become an acceptable defensive outfielder. There are cases where these guys work out okay, and there are cases where these guys work out less okay.

I don't think that Mike Carp, in left field, is a defensive disaster. I don't think that Mike Carp in left field is completely unworkable. Remember how long the Mariners kept Raul Ibanez in left field. The Mariners are clearly very open to giving Carp a lot of ground to cover on a pretty frequent basis.

Carp will probably be below average. It would be a minor miracle if he were not. He was a first baseman. What remains to be seen is how far below average he is. He could be a little below average, or he could be unacceptably below average. And here's the convenient thing - if the Mariners were looking to contend, I'd be wary about the prospect of Carp in left field. The Mariners are not looking to contend. Not realistically, not in 2012. 2012 is going to be a "well let's see" kind of season. So the Mariners can afford to see of what Carp is capable without jeopardizing a shot at the playoffs.

I doubt it's going to be pretty, but there's value in seeing if Carp can cut it in left. If he can, hey, all right. That's useful. If he can't, well, now we know. An unfortunate scenario would be Carp being a bad left fielder in 2012 and then the Mariners committing to him out there for the future anyway, but we needn't worry about that yet.

Hell, we don't even know what Carp's bat would look like over a full season. A year from now he might not even be in the picture. With the 2012 Mariners looking okay but not good enough, I don't see the harm in testing Carp's limits. The risk is just not that great.

(reference)

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Not every team is so formal.