Part 1

Even the most pessimistic among us didn't see this first half coming and on the whole as a community we were cautiously optimistic about the team's overall chances. What did we miss? In an effort to see if we erred in judgment, I've decided to review the community projections made at the start of the season against the first half performances and see where they diverge.

Raul Ibanez:
Projected: .276/.343/.447
Actual: .273/.338/.438

We expected some pretty big regression in Raul's bat this season going from a .831 OPS in 2007 down to a .790 OPS in 2008 with most of the downfall coming in the form of hits with a 15 point drop in average and a 33 point drop in slugging. We were pretty accurate in that regard as Raul's first half line stands at .273/.338/.438 against the projected .276/.343/.447.

Once again, we have a partial victim of bad luck with a 20.6% line drive rate against a .290 BABIP which is the lowest number in the past five seasons for Raul. However, his HR/FB% continues to fall, down to 8.3% from 11.0% suggesting that Raul might be running on fumes at this point, relying on better contact and a better eye to supplant a rapidly diminishing power ability. Now would be a perfect opportunity to bid farewell. That being said, we projected a .067 and .172 iso and got a .065 and .161 respectively. Pretty accurate.

WHAT WE MISSED: Nothing.

Ichiro Suzuki:
Projected: .337/.385/.434
Actual: .304/.366/.371

In retrospect, this was a hugely optimistic projection. Essentially, the community forecasted Ichiro for minimal decline from 2007 down from a .351/.396/.431 line to a .337/.385/.434 one. Now, it's tough to judge Ichiro mid-season since he got off to his typical early season slump. One thing Ichiro does have going for him this season is an improved walk rate even with him seeing less pitcher per plate appearance.

Ichiro has been remarkably consistent drawing 49, 48, 49 and 49 walks the last four years. He's already at 38 on the year leading to a career best .062 isoD, far above the projected .048 figure. The downside has been in his power, with no extra base hits in a month's time, Ichiro is posting just a .067 isoP against the hoped for .097 number and the .080 from 2007.

However, one popular method to help translate a player's speed contribution into a batting line is to add the player's stolen bases to his slugging and subtract his caught stealings from his OBP. If we apply this to Ichiro, his batting line turns into .304/.361/.458. It's not a perfect translation since a double is more valuable than a single and a stolen base, but then again, a single/walk plus a caught stealing is a lot more valuable than a random out.

I have little doubt that Ichiro's batting average will continue to rise; his improved contact rate suggests he hasn't lost anything in the bat control department and we may even see the slugging go up a bit as well after his hamstring issues clear up and he becomes potentially more apt to stretch some of those singles into doubles. All in all, we were too optimistic on his power, but he's surprised us a bit with his discipline while overcoming yet another typical early season slow start.

WHAT WE MISSED: Projected a little too much power.

More after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Even the most pessimistic among us didn't see this first half coming and on the whole as a community we were cautiously optimistic about the team's overall chances. What did we miss? In an effort to see if we erred in judgment, I've decided to review the community projections made at the start of the season against the first half performances and see where they diverge. Think of this as sort of an extended first half grades post, rotted from what we expected.

Kenji Johjima:
Projected: .283/.325/.433
Actual: .213/.257/.292

We projected Johjima to up his strikeout and walk totals but overall stay essentially the same player he was in 2006 and 2007. That might have been a mistake given his position, workload and age, but were we actually off? We projected an isoD of .042 and an isoP of .150. What's actually happened is an isoD of .044, back up to 2006 levels, but an isoP that's plummeted to .079.

Johjima has been severely unlucky with his base hits considering a line drive rate of 18.2% (19.0 and 20.1% in previous seasons) and a BABIP of just .219 (.290 and .289 previously) so I'd say our projected average of .283 was pretty spot on and was our patience estimate. But along with the unlucky hits, Johjima has seen, so far, his power just completely disappear. A possible byproduct or culprit of this is Johjima's pull% which has fallen from 71.5% in 2007 to 62.9% this season.

WHAT WE MISSED: Extreme power outage, bad luck.

Richie Sexson:
Projected: .247/.329/.457
Actual: .218/.315/.381

We all hoped for a dead cat bounce from Richie and for a couple weeks at the start of the season and a couple weeks at the end of his, we got that. Unfortunately, everything in between was even more horrible than 2007. Sexson's line drive rate was pretty healthy as was his HR/FB%, but a combination of not making contact nearly enough (he missed 31% of pitches he swung at) and some bad luck with BABIP meant he just could not keep his average high enough to be useful at all.

Sexson's isoD actually exceeded our projection (.097 to .082), but like Johjima, his power fell short with a isoP of .163 to a projected .210. Sexson seemed possible of a mini-turnaround when he was dumped due to body language issues (because that's of utmost importance on a team languishing in last place) and with some regression in the bad luck on BABIP, he might have actually managed his way to around a .750 OPS.

WHAT WE MISSED: Mild power outage, bad luck.

More after the jump.

Continue reading this post »

Why put them all in a bunch of individual posts if you don't have to? At this point I'm just in a rush to get them done and out of the way so we can officially put the offseason behind us. Onward!

ICHIRO:

AB: 673 (678)
2B: 24 (22)
3B: 7 (7)
HR: 9 (6)
HBP: 4 (3)
BB:  48 (49)
K: 72 (77)
SB: 41 (37)
CS: 9 (8)
GB%: 54 (56)

BA: .337 (.351)
OBP: .385 (.396)
SLG: .434 (.431)
IsoPa: .048 (.045)
IsoPo: .097 (.080)

Technically a bit of a drop-off, but not much of one. Ichiro compensates for a small dip in average by hitting for a little more power, meaning that - once again - the team's best hitter will be batting leadoff, coming to the plate several more times than anyone else on the roster.

Of note is that the community projection is the most optimistic Ichiro forecast of anything out there. It's higher than Bill James, higher than ZiPS, higher than Marcel, higher than CHONE, higher than MINER, higher than THT, and so much higher than PECOTA that it's looking down on PECOTA from above and smushing its tiny body between its fingers. I don't know how meaningful this is, but once again, given what our lineup's going to look like, this is a case where we could really stand to be right. If Ichiro reverted to, say, 2005 form, then that would be really bad news. For us.

Continue reading this post »

 











AB: 543 (573)
2B: 29 (35)
3B: 2 (5)
HR: 20 (21)
HBP: 3 (3)
BB:  52 (53)
K: 98 (97)
SB: 1 (0)
CS: 1 (0)
GB%: 43 (42)

BA: .276 (.291)
OBP: .343 (.351)
SLG: .447 (.480)
IsoPa: .067 (.060)
IsoPo: .172 (.188)

The evolution of the average stathead's opinion of Raul Ibanez:

• This guy's never going to turn into anything. Good luck in KC, you nobody.
• Raul Ibanez is an underrated player. The fact that he plays for a bad team is the only reason why no one knows who he is.
• What a dumb contract. $13.25m over three years for an aging corner outfielder coming off a down season? Seattle is stupid. Raul's almost finished.
  
• Raul Ibanez is an underrated player. There aren't too many guys who're a better fit for their park. The fact that he plays for a bad team is the only reason why no one knows who he is.
• Could his defense be any worse? Unbelievable that they're still letting him take the field. What with the shoddy glovework and all, Raul's barely a passable player at this point.

So many problems would be solved if the Mariners would just make Raul their DH. I want to like him. I really do. For four years now he's done a lot of good work for us at the plate. But for me, as long as he's playing left field, he's only going to be a source of constant displeasure, the sort that I can't just turn off when we're up to bat. It's like putting a fresh taco bar on wheels in a cafeteria with a slanty floor. You want the tacos, because they're delicious, but the whole time all you can think about is how annoying it is that the thing keeps rolling out of control. "WHO PUT WHEELS ON THE GOD DAMN TACO BAR?!" you scream at nobody. Who, indeed.

(Yes, I get the irony that I'm comparing a left fielder who sucks because he's stationary to a taco bar that sucks because it isn't, but it's the first thing that came to mind and there's no turning back.)

The community foresees a bit of a drop-off here, as it thinks Raul will regress back to his ~2005 level. The magnitude of the drop-off is about 10-15 runs, according to my scratch paper calculations. He'd still be a reasonable hitter, but not a guy who can carry the offense or supply the kind of punch this lineup so desperately needs. Anyone feel like telling Jeff Clement to hurry up? We could sure use the manifestation of his offensive potential right about now.

AB: 599 (595)
2B: 40 (41)
3B: 2 (2)
HR: 29 (26)
HBP: 4 (2)
BB: 43 (38)
K: 102 (104)
SB: 12 (14)
CS: 4 (2)
GB%: 42 (44)

BA: .288 (.276)
OBP: .340 (.319)
SLG: .506 (.482)
IsoPa: .052 (.043)
IsoPo: .219 (.207)

What can I say? You guys love Adrian Beltre almost as much as Adrian Beltre loves fishing.

For sliders. Not fish. That probably could've been clearer.

I better hurry the hell up if I want to be done with these things by Monday. Don't forget to swing by USSM, since Dave's covering the pitchers.

AB: 556 (536)
2B: 35 (38)
3B: 5 (2)
HR: 10 (9)
HBP: 3 (1)
BB: 21 (15)
K: 55 (48)
SB: 12 (5)
CS: 7 (4)
GB%: 46 (43)

BA: .291 (.289)
OBP: .321 (.308)
SLG: .424 (.418)
IsoPa: .029 (.019)
IsoPo: .132 (.129)

An observation:

Johjima projected walk rate increase: 43%
Lopez projected walk rate increase: 38%
Betancourt projected walk rate increase: 35%

I have a theory about this. When people are filling out their projections, they're trying their hardest to be realistic. That's the whole point of the exercise; wild-ass guesses would render the project entirely worthless. So with that in mind, when people were entering their data for Johjima/Lopez/Betancourt, they threw in a few extra free passes because they didn't think it was humanly possible for someone to walk so infrequently. Well guess what? You sons of bitches are wrong. It is possible, and these three players are living proof.

Anyway, walks aside, there's not too much that's different here. Yuni's put up back-to-back identical seasons, and you guys see more of the same coming up. High average, low OBP, limited power, and enough stolen base attempts to make us wonder why Yuni ever bothers trying to steal. Nothing extraordinary, but slightly above average for his position. For $1.25m, that's a heck of a deal.

So once again, it looks like most of the attention will be paid not to Yuni's bat, but to his glove. We're still waiting for his defensive stats to catch up to his stellar reputation, but if it doesn't happen now, that'll give us three and a half seasons' worth of data calling him ~average. That's a pretty significant sample, and one that'd force us to re-consider just how valuable a player Yuni really is. I mean, the decent offense and low price already make him valuable enough, but elite-level defense would make him one of the better steals in the league. If he doesn't really have it, I guess we'll just have to settle for "good", instead of "mind-blowingly awesome". Raspberries.

Prediction: Yuni's offense barely changes, but nevertheless attracts quite a bit more criticism than it did last year due to a little clutch situation regression to the mean.

...moving right along...

AB: 536 (524)
2B: 26 (17)
3B: 3 (2)
HR: 14 (11)
HBP: 5 (5)
BB: 28 (20)
K: 68 (64)
SB: 5 (2)
CS: 3 (3)
GB%: 47 (46)

BA: .277 (.252)
OBP: .319 (.286)
SLG: .416 (.355)
IsoPa: .042 (.034)
IsoPo: .139 (.103)

I was going to open with a remark about how the Mariner blogosphere still has a good bit of faith in Lopez's ability, but then I looked at last year's community projection (.285/.330/.435) and decided that the ~4% drop in forecasted OPS suggests that a significant number of people are beginning to lose patience.

And who can blame them? Lopez's 2007 was one of the worst seasons we've seen from an everyday player in years and years. He took zero steps forward and countless steps back, all at an age when you're supposed to be putting things together. It wasn't enough that his numbers were awful; he plum looked awful, too, right down to the all-wrist swing and occasional defensive lapses. If you knew nothing about Lopez's history and watched him a few times in September, you'd probably come away wondering how that man could possibly have a job.

And yet, we know the talent's in there somewhere. We've seen it. Lopez will never be mistaken for someone with a discerning eye, but we've seen him hit the ball hard into the gap and harder over the fence. We know there's more to him than he showed in 2006, and a *lot* more to him than he showed in 2007. And the community is cautiously optimistic that he'll recover some of that ability and have a good season. A .735 OPS for a 24 year old right-handed second baseman in Safeco is nothing to sneeze at, and would significantly help Lopez get his career back on track.

It's that natural talent that drives us crazy. It'd be one thing if Lopez were Ecksteining the crap out of his skillset, but the fact that he's capable of so much more is what makes him such a letdown. It's hard not to blame Lopez himself for not turning his ability into something more by now. God knows he's had enough time. I know it's fun to be angry at the organization for trying to get him to go the other way more often, but that isn't a valid reason for why he bails out on so many at bats. That's Lopez's own fault. He badly needs to improve his selectivity and swing with a little more confidence. Do that and he should be able to meet the community's projection. If he doesn't, he won't come close.

I'll say this: while I can't be sure about which path Lopez will take, his future in Seattle will depend on his taking some substantial strides forward. We know the front office and coaching staff are dissatisfied. The onus is on Lopez to come out of the gate playing well, impress McLaren from the two-slot, and avoid another summer collapse. Another year like the last two will probably be his last as a Mariner. Lopez needs to get going, because before long it will be too late.

Of all the non-Felix community projections, I think this is the one I want to come true the most.

The second in the series as we work our way around the diamond. Which, incidentally, Richie didn't do nearly enough. Once again, 2007 numbers are listed in parentheses.

AB: 454 (434)
2B: 24 (21)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 24 (21)
HBP: 4 (5)
BB: 52 (51)
K: 119 (100)
SB: 0 (1)
CS: 1 (0)
GB%: 43 (48)

BA: .247 (.205)
OBP: .329 (.295)
SLG: .457 (.399)
IsoPa: .082 (.090)
IsoPo: .210 (.194)

As expected, you guys think Richie's a pretty solid bounce-back candidate. Not necessarily in terms of playing time - the projected at bats are down ~20% from his usual, implying an injury or a short leash - but when it comes to the rate stats, your forecasts jive pretty well with the stuff that's already out there.

Note, however, that the bounce-back is due almost entirely to a higher projected BABIP. Richie's .217 was the lowest in baseball last year, and presumably boosted by a few more line drives and some better luck, the community has him coming out at .283 in 2008. This pushes him up to a far more respectable and far less embarrassing batting line, one that would probably be good enough to get him off the casual fan's shit list (if that's ever possible. One for the philosophers, I suppose).

There's a good way and a bad way to look at this. The good way is that, with a .786 OPS, Richie would actually be helping this team score runs, a far cry from whatever it was he did in 2007. It could even conceivably leave him as *sigh* the most productive hitter in the lineup. The bad way is that, even with the rebound, Richie would still be one of the worst overall first basemen in the league, something we could really stand to not have be the case this year. We could use a return to '05/'06 levels like you wouldn't believe, but if that's not going to happen, then it puts that much more pressure on everyone else. Man, I'm really not looking forward to watching us try to score runs.

Richie Sexson needs to produce, and he needs to produce immediately. If he doesn't, the M's won't succeed and he'll quickly find himself out of a job in a contract season. I won't go so far as to say that our fate this year rests on Richie's shoulders, because that would be stupid, but I will say that the magnitude of his bounce-back will be one of the most significant factors in determining how many games the team wins.

I know things are kind of complicated between us, Richie, what with the booing and all. This is your chance to make it better. Win us back.

Please.

Time to start flying through these things. I'll be covering the hitters; Dave's taking care of the pitchers. 2007 numbers are listed in parentheses.

AB: 471 (485)
2B: 26 (29)
3B: 0 (0)
HR: 14 (14)
HBP: 9 (11)
BB: 21 (15)
K: 47 (41)
SB: 1 (0)
CS: 2 (2)
GB%: 46 (46)

BA: .283 (.287)
OBP: .325 (.322)
SLG: .433 (.433)
IsoPa: .042 (.035)
IsoPo: .150 (.146)

And so we kick off the projections with a guy who's basically been the same player in both of his seasons since coming over. Scintillating. You guys expect a whole lot more of the same, with only two differences:

BB%, 2007: 2.9%
BB%, 2008: 4.1%

K%, 2007: 8.0%
K%, 2008: 9.4%

The community thinks Kenji's going to set career highs in walks and strikeouts. Not that it's particularly difficult for a player who doesn't walk or strike out to set new career highs in walks and strikeouts, but this is interesting, and it might indicate either (A) acknowledgment that Kenji's getting older, (B) subconscious (or deliberate I guess) regression to the mean, or (C) randomness. Then again though, since the final batting line is consistent with Kenji's 2006 and 2007, I suppose the means are less significant than the ends. So here's to OPS consistency.

2008's going to be an important summer. Not only because the organization has invested a lot in its effort to win now, but also because what Kenji does in his contract year could go a long way towards determining the shape of Jeff Clement's future in the big leagues. So with that in mind, one thing's for sure: following Kenji's season won't be nearly as dull as reading what we think it'll look like.