News that comes out of nowhere such as yesterday's revelation on Morrow's future is best reflected on with some time to digest it and process through the initial, often too immediate, emotional reactions. I was ticked off by the story yesterday that Morrow was shifting to the bullpen full time, that he was giving up on the idea of ever being a starting pitcher. Morrow the starter was a big piece toward pushing this team's ceiling upwards and many of us hoped that he would provide a nice middle to upper rotation figure come 2010 and beyond. That hope is no more.

Instead we're left with hoping that Brandon Morrow becomes a lights out closer. And while I certainly think Morrow can be, probably already is, a good reliever, make no mistake, he has to be certifiably lights out to come anywhere near the value that he would have been able to as a starter.

J.J. Putz, Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Joe Nathan; those four illustrate what is the best you can hope for from a closer. Those four represented the best of the best over some period of recent time. And that best value comes out to about 2.7 wins. Sure, they can go higher in some years, but they will also go lower. 2.7 wins/year is essentially the multi-year ceiling for closers. If those four couldn't exceed that figure, you are probably delusional to think Morrow can. Relievers just do not throw enough innings.

Jamie Moyer, Paul Maholm, Ted Lilly, Dana Eveland. What do those names mean to you? Those are starting pitchers last year who were worth about 2.7 wins. And that's Morrow's absolute, 100%, best case scenario. A more realistic scenario, and one that is still optimistic, would be to just go by what Morrow himself did in the bullpen last year. You might recall that Morrow was pretty fantastic in relief at the start of the year. He was pumping up the velocity, showed improved command and demonstrated his off speed stuff. He struck out a third of all batters that he faced and over three for every walk allowed. Assuming he maintained those levels while closing and doubled his innings total from the pen in 2009, he would have tallied 2 wins worth of value. Congrats Brandon, you would have been as valuable as Tim Wakefield or Randy Wolf was last year.

I hope this has made my point of how big of a blow to Morrow's value is and why I was so upset at the decision. Now I want to clarify who my anger is directed toward. We at LL have made it a point, especially over the past seasons, of defending players with regards to their health. Notably, we supported Erik Bedard in pulling himself out and we flamed Raul Ibanez for playing through an injury in 2007 that cost him dearly in terms of production. Baseball is, for all intents and purposes, an individual sport supporting a team goal and playing while injured does nothing more than hurt your individual contribution. Baseball isn't football or hockey, where playing injured can help inspire teammates to give more effort. Jose Lopez cannot hit more home runs just because he really wants to live up to Raul Ibanez's display of manliness.

So where does that leave us with Brandon Morrow? The answer to that lies in the answer to the question, "Why is he moving to the bullpen?" If it's because of his diabetes, then fine, I will not hold that against you Brandon. I do firmly believe that a player knows his body and his limitations better than anyone else and I will not stand to pass judgment on it. But if it's because you feel more comfortable (not in a health sense) relieving, or because you like the pressure of closing more, then well, I am disappointed Brandon, because that's dumb. You are costing yourself and you are costing this team.

Which is it then? There seems to be a multitude of answers. I will quote him directly, by way of local writers. Shannon Drayer seems to feel the diabetes was the major driving force:

"It just came down in my mind that I am more suited to pitch on a day to day basis rather than every five days throwing 100 pitches."

He continued by explaining what he went through last year.

"Everything I think is easier on me on the day to day. Starting I have had problems with low blood sugar, trying to get it perfect before the game or even if I try to be a little high I fall down in warmups and it was just a catch up game from then on. Out of the bullpen we have a pre game meal and I have 5,6,7, innings for it to level out and make sure everything is good and level and where I want it to be."

But on the flip side, are quotes like these, from LaRue's piece:

"I really wrestled with starting or closing, and the bottom line is that after J.J.(Putz) was traded I wanted to close,"

from Baker's blog:

"Once they traded J.J., I thought, I kept going back and forth and back and forth,'' he said. "Two or three weeks before I came to them with it, it's really kind of been just weighing on me. I just felt like a big relief when I went back to the bullpen because I feel that's like my home now. I've been there two years and I don't know if I could go back.''

and from Jim Street's piece on MLB.com:

"I went to them," he said on Sunday morning at the Peoria Sports Complex. "They were going to give me every chance to start because that's what I've asked for in the past. But I decided about a week ago that I'm better off, and I can help the team more, in the bullpen."

"Diabetes is a little bit of a factor, but the major thing is the excitement from coming in at the end of the game. Once you get a taste of closing, I don't think many people would want to go back to anything else."

Health risks aside, Morrow is quoted often saying that he, and others, think he'll be more useful as a reliever. The math isn't with you, Brandon (and others). I respect a player's knowledge of his own health, but I do not respect a player's opinion on how he is best used. Ken Griffey Jr thinks he can still play the outfield. Raul Ibanez thinks he's not bad at defense. Pedro Martinez thinks he's worth $5 million a year. Gary Matthews Jr thinks he's worth a starting job. The list is endless. Baseball players are largely unaware of their own value so if that's the reason Morrow decided to go to the bullpen, then hooray, we now have a guy in the bullpen to match Felix's baseball intelligence out of the rotation. I cannot wait for the first all-fastball game from the duo.

More from Baker

Big news out of camp. Moments ago, I spoke to Brandon Morrow after he'd thrown a bullpen session and he told me (and Shannon Drayer and Tim Booth of AP) that he plans to be a full-time closer from now on. Not just this month, not just this season. For good.

This just doesn't make any sense. None. Zero. Sure he was having some forearm issues, but unless there is a lot more to the medical side that we are not getting (possible), then this is just plain baffling.

"I feel good about it,'' [Morrow] said. "I feel back home.''

This also doesn't make sense. Morrow had been on record as wanting to start for a long time. What gives here?

If this were under Bavasi's tenure, I think our first thoughts would be that this is a knee-jerk reaction to the bullpen looking rocky out of Spring Training. But, we know the current front office wants Morrow in the rotation. Just a week or so ago they said that Morrow would be starting games somewhere for sure, whether it be with Seattle if his arm healed in time, or with Tacoma if it didn't. And now comes this?

Well, if you go by the context that Geoff Baker builds, this decision was Morrow's. I have to question a player telling the team where he can be used so the team has to be at least malleable to the idea, which irks me. This is not good for the team. This is another substantial blow to the team's ceiling coming mere hours after the news on Jeff Clement. Also, Tyler Walker was released.

The 2009 Mariners have gotten a lot worse today. Substantially worse. And what's most troubling is that the blight of bad news today is centering on two of the biggest pieces for future success.

Sure am glad we signed Josh Fields now...

John Brattain passed away today from complications during heart surgery. I am still having trouble figuring out how to process this. Brattain's work may not be all that familiar to those of you. He was a vocal writer at BBTF, BDD and THT among other places. As a guy who loved to take digs at David Samson and wrote tirelessly on Barry Bonds being locked out of baseball this past season, I think we can all appreciate his causes.

More than that though, John was a great representative for the online baseball community, someone who was endlessly thoughtful and considerate of others. The amount of times that he would respond to a simple question with a reply long enough to put one of Jeff's vintage game recaps to shame were too numerous to count.

I had the rare opportunity over the past two plus years to be part of the The Hardball Times and through that, the privilege of getting to read the goings-on with all of the staff on our e-mail listserv. It isn't doing near enough justice to say the Brattain was a man whose personality shone bright. Always jovial, sincere, upbeat and willing to talk to anyone anytime about anything. I never got to meet him in person but there's not a shred of doubt in my mind that I would have enjoyed his company immensely.

There is a BBTF thread here where others are remembering John if you wish to drop a comment. And if you never read Brattain before, I suggest you go here and search for posts from Bones McCoy and then read through his THT archives.

John, you will be missed.

Best Regards to you this time.

From Hickey via USSM: Erik Bedard has a torn labrum.

We knew what it was after the MRI — it’s a tear in the labrum and a cyst,” Bedard said. “Surgery was always an option, but you want it to be the last option. You’re never 100 percent sure what will happen in surgery.

I'd have some commentary but I honestly feel too queasy to point out anything except:

Anyway this labrum’s great – it belongs to Erik Bedard

-Scrappy, 3 days ago.

FUCK YOU YOU FUCKING DOG.

----------

Jeff's note: I'm not at home, but I just heard the news. Figures. For the Mariners, this has for all intents and purposes pretty much been sealed as the worst trade in team history. For us, it probably means no more Erik Bedard ever again, and shattered hopes for a competitive team in 2009. For everyone who thought it appropriate to call Bedard a pussy (or insinuate as such), I cordially invite you all to go fuck yourselves. In Riggleman's own words, Bedard gave this team everything he could - and probably more - and in the end it's not the pitcher you should hate, but the ex-general manager who thought the pitcher worth crippling the farm. You can't help getting hurt. You can help taking an obvious bad gamble. God dammit, Bavasi. God dammit. This organization has now been set back even further than I feared, and it's all thanks to you. Tomorrow morning I hope someone farts in your coffee.

It's fun when a worst-case scenario comes to fruition. Really keeps you grounded.

And other curse words.

An illustration:

Continue reading this post »

UPDATE: Larry Stone's source says that no Washburn/Bonser deal was ever discussed. And yet it's funny how, when you get down to it, that doesn't change a thing. If true, Bonser-specific points in this post are invalidated, but the argument stays exactly the same.

I don't know who Joe Christensen is but this is why sometimes people want to shoot the messenger.

The minute the Twins made the claim, they could have been stuck with the contract. That’s about $2.55 million for the rest of this year and another $10.35 million for next year.
...

But that wasn’t enough for the Mariners. They are convinced Washburn has value on the trade market. The Yankees were willing to take the contract off their hands in late July, but the deal fell through because the Mariners wanted talent in return.

I received indications that the Twins offered Boof Bonser.
...
Oh no. I have indications the Mariners insisted on getting one of the Twins’ current starting pitchers. Yeah, like Nick Blackburn or Kevin Slowey. That, friends, is sheer lunacy.

Boof Bonser is a 26 year old righty with two years of service time and a career 4.70 tRA that's 5% above the league average. His 2008 salary is $0.4325m and he won't be eligible for free agency until the winter of 2012. Evidently the Mariners came to the conclusion that, in exchange for Washburn, he wasn't enough.

To summarize, Bonser:

-is better than Washburn
-is younger than Washburn
-is cheaper than Washburn
-is under team control for longer than Washburn

And somehow we were the ones to turn down the deal.

I'm not sure what the Twins were thinking here. I guess they're so desperate to fix their bullpen that they want to bump one of their starters to relief for the stretch drive. That's dumb, but whatever. What's important for the Mariners is that the opportunity was there to get rid of Jarrod Washburn, and the organization didn't seize it, because they believe that a fair price for Jarrod Washburn is somebody better, cheaper, and younger. Well, no, scratch that - Bonser is already better, cheaper, and younger. So they believe that a fair price is somebody even more better, cheaper, and younger. You know those stupid posts you'll see on message boards all the time that consist of ideas like "hey we should trade Richie Sexson for Joba the Yankees need a first baseman"? You know how you just skip over those comments and roll your eyes in disgust? The Mariners are trying to make that sort of thing a reality. And - surprise! - other teams aren't having it.

This isn't about having to pencil Washburn into the 2009 rotation. There's still a chance that the front office will be able to get rid of him over the winter. But

(1) there are far more #4/5 starters available for low cost during the winter than during the summer, and there's less desperation in the market

(2) in what ought to be a winter of change the last thing a new front office needs is to have to deal with a problem for which we already had an obvious and easy solution

(3) apparently this organization doesn't believe Washburn is someone you just give away

Yesterday this team made a horrible, unjustifiable decision. And whatever happens with Washburn from this point forward does nothing to change that. I don't care that there still exists some sliver of hope that we'll be able to get rid of him over the winter, because while that's a valid point, we could have gotten rid of him yesterday and never had to worry about him again, and we didn't. Yesterday, this front office was faced with the question "do you believe Jarrod Washburn is a $10m pitcher?" and their answer was yes. Actually, by turning down a deal for Bonser, their answer was "we believe he's worth quite a bit more than that." Jarrod Washburn.

Those of you who didn't think this was so bad - do you get it now? Do you get that this is as much about philosophy as it is about execution? Yes, the Mariners may still get rid of Jarrod Washburn during the winter, but every indication is that, despite mistake after mistake after mistake, this organization still doesn't have a clue how to evaluate pitching. Not a clue. They've learned nothing from Washburn. They've learned nothing from Batista. They've learned nothing from Silva. Nothing. They have learned nothing. This is our team.

Stupidity compounded by arrogance is among the most destructive forces on the planet.

Heyman.

Time expired on Thursday afternoon on waiver claims made on two Mariners, left fielder Raul Ibanez and left-hander Jarrod Washburn. Both players will be remaining with Seattle.

SI.com has learned that the Tigers won the claim on Ibanez and the Twins won the claim on Washburn. However, neither team was able to work out a trade with Seattle within the allotted 48 hours after making the claim.
...
...sources indicate that there were trade discussions ongoing between Minnesota and Seattle. However, the teams couldn't agree on a trade before the Thursday afternoon deadline.

I am going to let this sit and stew for a little while.

Matthew's Addendum: This appears to be confirmed now by the Seattle Times. Our last hope is that the Mariners put Washburn back on waivers this month. Yes, they still can do that. If a player is put on revocable waivers and is claimed, there is two days to work out a trade. If no trade was made, such as in this case, the player can be put on waivers one more time, but is automatically on irrevocable waivers. That is, if Washburn hits waivers again this month and is claimed, that's it. He's gone without even a chance for the Mariners to fuck it up. Please put him back on waivers.