They ain't pretty no more.

(via www.proballnw.com)

I figure y'all would like a place to go nuts. So have it.

Adrian Beltre is all but signed with Boston, for one year between $9-10 million with apparently some absurdly comical player option for 2011 which he'll never exercise unless something insane happens.

Take everything I said below about John Lackey and reverse it and you will come close to assembling the Rich Harden package. As mentioned, Harden made the exact same amount of starts (51) the past two seasons as Lackey did. Harden did throw noticeably fewer innings in that span, 290 to Lackey's 340, mainly as a result of a difference in approach. Lackey averaged 3.64 pitches per plate appearance the last two seasons, Harden was at 4.11. Strikeouts generally take more pitches to complete so it should come as little surprise to see the difference there. The important thing is note is that Lackey threw a total of 228 more pitches than Harden over 2008-9, the equivalent of one extra start per season.

Unlike Lackey, Harden's swinging strike rate is less trendy, partially due to the lack of data points in 2006-7. However, Harden had established a 11% rate in 2003-5 and was at 15% both of the prior two seasons. He would probably demolish Texas' hitters. Harden is also going to walk a good number of fellows. Interestingly enough, Harden's tendency to throw strikes is no worse than Lackey's, both hitting the zone about half the time. Harden is much more often to throw that first pitch for a ball though, but again, that's part of the deal with high strikeout pitchers.

Harden is also more of a fly ball pitcher than Lackey. Again, Harden is about the strikeouts so pitching up in the zone is part of that most of the time. All of this combines to give us the overall picture of Harden to Lackey, way more strikeouts, a few more walks and a few more fly balls. While Lackey's tRA* floated around 4.4, Harden's is around 4.1 though that came in a less offensive league. The difference between the two in terms of those figures is negligible. CHONE is slightly more bearish, also projecting Harden to be equal to Lackey in performance level, but Lackey's clear inferior in durability.

Even accounting for Harden's higher catastrophic injury risk, he grades out as being worth $12 million or so per year. To compare them directly, Harden's fair value over a four year deal would likely be around 4/44 compared to Lackey's 4/52. That Harden's health knocked that 4/44 down to 1/7.5 with an $11.5 million option is what made him a great target. An opportunity potentially (we don't know what went on, there may have been nothing reasonable Jack Z could have done) missed here and that the Rangers signed him makes it all the more painful.

I didn't see it, but I heard about it, and hearing about it made me sad.

:(

No word on his condition as of 5:35.

5:36 update: Saw it. Pad your damn walls

5:41 update: If I heard Sims right, Guti is day-to-day with a contusion, and x-rays "may have been" negative, whatever that means. If true, our season lives on!

Later update: Confirmation from Stone at Baker's blog.

It doesn't sound as dire as it looked. He has a left elbow and left knee contusion, and x-rays on his knee were negative. He also has an abrasion on his left knee. He's listed as day to day. That's about as good an outcome as you could hope for. It sounds like nothing is broken or sprained.

Well, that didn't last long. Larry LaRue with the word:

Just when hasn't been decided, but within the next week Beltre will have surgery that will likely keep him out of the Seattle Mariners lineup 6-8 weeks.

According to reports, Beltre is under a severe amount of pain every time he lifts his arm above shoulder height. That he was going to try and play through that for three months and change is a testament to just how strong willed the man is. Unfortunately for him and for the team, he is not going to be able to make it.

Based on the timeline, do not expect to see Adrian back until around the middle to end of August.

WHAT THE FUCK IS THIS

The 2008 Seattle Mariners were world-renowned for their shitty plate discipline. Their O-Swing% of 28.5% ranked second-last in the league, as did their 6.9% walk rate. It was a team full of hackers, and their poor collective idea of the strike zone played a significant role in crippling the team's chances of competing.

Jack Zduriencik recognized this weakness during the offseason and brought in a group of players better able to identify strikes and balls and make the pitcher work. Ken Griffey Jr., Russell Branyan, Endy Chavez, and Franklin Gutierrez all came in with encouraging track records, and Mike Sweeney had a history of reasonable discipline. Only Ronny Cedeno looked like a free swinger, and he was slotted for the bench.

After 33 games, the 2009 Seattle Mariners have an O-Swing% of 29.6% and a walk rate of 6.9%. This despite the league average O-Swing% falling a point and the league average BB% jumping a point.

We've gotten worse. Despite the additions and the coaching staff saying all the right things during the spring, our plate discipline has gotten worse.

It hasn't been the fault of the additions. While Branyan's swung at more pitches out of the zone than usual (not that it's hurt him), here's everything you need to know:

It's those damn relics from the Bavasi era holding us back, as many of them seem to be hacking more than ever. The violators?

Beltre: O-Swing% increase of 6.8%
Betancourt: +10.3%
Lopez: +5.0%
Ichiro: +3.3%

I always trust that Ichiro knows what he's doing, but between Yuni, Lopez, and Beltre, we have three of the stupidest hitters in the world, and we're starting them every day. Somebody help us. I can't take much more of this.

Broken tibia.