Lookout Landing: FanPosts

Econometrics Applied: New Robust Measure of Repeatable Skills

2009-11-25T03:36:44Z

As you all know, I am part of the ascending breed of baseball writers changing the way we think about the game. My colleagues and I are illuminating the folly of results-based analysis and how we can do better. Employing advanced statistical tools, we are carving and chipping away at variables that are out of a player's control to reveal the Davidian statue that is repeatable skills.

I hope you will pardon us for our imperfections. Consider us more Michelangelo in the Madonna of the Steps days than hanging from a suspended scaffold in the Apostolic Palace. We learn as we teach. You see, as we seek to educate, we learn from each other and even from you. These blog communities are our symposiums. We are borrowing and sharing, sculpting and shaving, mixing and matching, lecturing and listening.

While we are imperfect, we are constantly improving. We brought you WAR, UZR, tRA, CFBV, wOBA, to name but a few strokes of the hammer on the chisel. We have successfully reduced the impact of ballpark and luck on our understanding of batters, of team defense on pitchings, of subjectivity on defensive performance.

Nevertheless, our tape measures tell us yards, not inches. wOBA is easily skewed when a batter hits a lot of "seeing eye ground balls" through the hole that are actually "lucky ground balls." UZR is only as good as the person coding outcomes. tRA, in an effort to factor out luck and defense, actually factors out a lot of information about repeatable skills in a ,burning-books-type-of censorship power-trip. CFBV is, frankly, a little heteroscedastic for my taste.

But worry you mustn't. I have recently developed a hefty new statistical tool that lets us examine, with the most powerful microscope yet, repeatable skill, while stripping away random noise and luck. The tool is called wSPAR, or weighted Standing Pressure Above Replacement.

Why is wSPAR better?

wSPAR data shows an extraordinary robustness that data from other measures cannot replicate. In other words, wSPAR stabilizes rapidly, and measurements can be conducted across smaller sample sizes with smaller standard deviations. This is to say that if Jose Lopez posts a wSPAR that is higher than Jack Wilson's over the course of just five games, you can be reasonably confident that Lopez will be the better player (in terms of wSPAR) over the course of a season.

wSPAR also has significant advantages over other measurements in terms of immunity to variables that are out of a player's control. Random and often lucky variables like batting average on balls in play, team defense, and home ballpark cannot tip the scales in favor of one player over another when comparing wSPARs.

How iswSPAR calculated?

wSPAR is derived, much like WAR, by establishing a baseline wSP by measuring the wSP of a replacement level player at a given position. Then each player's wSP is simply compared to that baseline in order to calculate a positive or negative decimal that represents the difference.

If you would like to learn more about the concept or calculation of a "replacement level player," I suggest you check out a website called Fangraphs, available at www.fangraphs.com. wSP is actually also available on www.fangraphs.com, though the writers there have yet to incorporate wSPAR totals into articles addressed to laymen. If you would like to conduct your own research on wSPAR, visit the player pages at www.fangraphs.com. wSP is the second number in the third column under each player's name.

Great, so what does wSPAR tell us that we don't already know?

Well, a lot actually. For one example, let's take a recent blog post by Dave Cameron, available here. In Cameron's post, he attempts to put together a Seattle Mariners roster for next year given reasonable constraints such as team salary and reasonable trade partners. Cameron relies primarily on WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to construct his team. He does not even mention wSPAR and his spreadsheet has no trace of it.

It is no surprise Cameron did not mention wSPAR. If you consider wSPAR, Cameron's proposed team looks much worse on paper than it does through WAR's rose-tinted glasses. I took the liberty of reproducing Cameron's spreadsheet including the players he'd like the Mariners to break camp with next year, but I simply replaced WAR with wSPAR.

As you can see, it's no wonder Cameron omitted wSPAR. Cameron's proposal has the Mariners trading Brandon Morrow for a below-average shortstop and paying $8 million per year for a below-average second baseman when they have two cheaper and more prominent options in-house. And I know the "Ichiro The Savior" versus "Ichiro the Albatross" debate has kept many of you up at night pondering, but I think we can all agree that this demonstrates that, especially at his salary and age, the Ichiro investment will leave fans starved for more for years. Finally, why should the Mariners ration their resources to provide for a feast in middle relief, with the relative famine on the team at closer?

But the wSPAR picture is not altogether bleak. RR-S, Saunders, and Nick Hill look like intriguing young, cheap options with loads of potential for growth. Nick Johnson is expensive, but if we can afford him, he bulks up our lineup considerably. Tui should get his shot at either second base or third. And Carlos Silva appears to be primed for some serious regression (in a good way).

Lessons Learned

I know that not everyone will agree with this analysis. As I've mentioned, disagreement breeds improved understandings. And the more I am tested by sharp young minds who do not merely accept my words as gospel, the more refined my teachings become.

I will ask one thing though. In the spirited debate that is sure to follow, please try to back up your opinions with real authority. Let us all strive to be rigorous in our methods and thorough in our research, as I have strived for here. Don't simply say "We should use WAR because that is what we've always used." Do not hurl argumentum ad hominems like "you're just a geeky parents' basement number cruncher."

Writers like Dave Cameron and I write these sorts of informative articles for no pecuniary gain whatsoever. Our writings are merely didactic. We welcome dissent as much as we welcome praise, but let it be reasoned dissent. If we can follow these simple rules, the Sistine Chapel will be within reach.

11/23: Weekly? Rumor Open Thread

2009-11-23T17:45:37Z

Today we get this from ESPN Insider:

Remember the frenzy surrounding proposed deals that would send Edwin Jackson and/or outfielder Curtis Granderson from Detroit to Seattle? The momentum appears to have slowed significantly. One person familiar with the talks told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick that it's "pretty doubtful" the teams have enough common ground to make a trade.

Seattle has legitimate interest in Jackson, but isn't willing to part with the haul of young talent that Detroit GM David Dombrowski wants in return. The consensus is that Dombrowski is trying to "sell high" on Jackson after his 2009 All-Star season.

Surprise! Detroit thinks Edwin Jackson is really good. Seattle knows he isn't. A wonder the two sides can't agree on a package.

WAR gains major exposure

2009-11-22T16:44:14Z

So I was handed a copy of the New York Times today (yes I hate trees), and flipping to the sports section the top article on its front page was entitled "A New Generation of Statistics Redefines Baseball". It's basically all about WAR and how its gaining an increasingly large following in both the media and fanbase. It's also got a Dave Cameron quote and basically is one of the better or at least most heartening articles you'll read in a (very) mainstream newspaper al year. I found the article under a different name online and I suggest you take a look. Some notable awesomeness:

A WAR of 10 does not have resonance as a hallowed number in a sport with so many others. But it will be a goal for Greinke next season, whether or not the Royals contend.

“I think, whether the traditional baseball community wants to acknowledge it or not, the fan base and the media have finally embraced and immersed themselves in advanced statistics,” Bannister said. “I think you’re going to see more and more people brought up with that influence. I really just think that the future of the game is in the numbers.”

AFL Championship game thread

2009-11-21T20:08:02Z

I have no idea if anyone else is even watching but here's a thread nonetheless.

Anthony Varvaro starting, Ackley in left.

Varvaro gave up a lead-off triple but I thought he looked pretty good after that, nice curve to strike out the final hitter. Ackley flew out on the second pitch he saw.

So... yeah. Go Javelinas!

Oh yeah, Tony Clark's the colour guy again so be prepared to hear the word 'mister' a lot and about 'things you can't teach'.

OFFTOP 11/19 - The Hand of Fraud

2009-11-19T22:03:35Z

As most of you know by now, the Irish again failed to qualify for the World Cup yesterday. They had several gilt-edged scoring chances that they did not convert, so instead of talking about Ireland's return to the World Cup, the entire soccer world is talking about this (the fun starts at the 5.34 mark). Not only was Henry offside, he handled the ball not once but twice. He owned up to it after the game, but that doesn't matter - France won, and is through to the World Cup, on a goal that never should have been allowed in the first place. It seems the only people that didn't see it are the three referees that are supposed to see these things. Instant replay would be great, but FIFA doesn't want it.

There's now a lot of controversy over whether Henry should have said something, should have insisted to the ref that the goal not stand, but I think that's kinda stupid - if Ireland feels hard done by, they should talk to Robbie Keane, who missed an absolute sitter that would have put the game beyond doubt. Instead we get controversy, and demands for the game to be replayed.

So, since the last OFFTOP is filling up/bogging down slow computers and we needed a new one, the question I have is simple: What is the most egregiously bad officiating decision (in any sport) you know of?

Also: movies, beer, bands, you know the drill.

The Turkey Bowl (Nov 27, 1:00pm)

2009-11-19T04:33:16Z

This is hopefully going to be the big one. The Black Friday Turkey Bowl!

If you haven't played with us before, you're very encouraged to show up for this special after-Thanksgiving calorie burnoff.

Playing on Lynnwood High's new field was cool, but I think we should try Garfield unless enough people say otherwise. Also, I wont be able to make many decisions on this thread because I wont be online much in the upcoming week, so I hope you guys get time and date sorted out.

By the way, theres a link to the facebook event page in the thread below. Check it out!

I'll be updating the 'people who are playing' list semi-daily.

Playing: JamMasterJesus

johnbai

katal

BrettJMiller

LantermanC (+two)

Tony Blengino interview on 710 AM ESPN Seattle's Hot Stove League

2009-11-19T03:39:18Z

I started listening to the Hot Stove league show tonight on KIRO-710 ESPN, just barely soon enough to hear the very end of the interview with Tony Blengino. It was awesome...and now I'm desperate to hear the rest of it!

Does anyone know if there is a way to listen to a recording of the program? Does 710 AM post recordings of their broadcasts or interviews anywhere? Thanks!

Anyone have any thoughts on the interview?

OTFPOTD 11/16: Recipes Edition

2009-11-16T16:22:13Z

I recently lost a friendly wager with my roommate over the results of a sporting match, so I need to cook us and some guests a big dinner as payment. I'm feeling a little homesick, so I really want to cook a Vietnamese or Thai meal. I don't have much experience with cooking, but I have wits enough to pull off some fairly elaborate meals if I do my homework and have good recipes (I made a chicken curry meal a few weeks ago).

I plan on using chicken, and I have ready access to a good deal of cilantro, garlic, ginger, vegetables, noodles, and a big stir fry pan.

Also, in this thread, feel free to consider:

-What recipe(s) I should use for the meal I'm cooking this weekend?

-What are your favorite, most especial recipes (and maybe the story of how you found it)?

-What are you favorite types of food and restaurants the Seattle area (or wherever in the world you live, for that matter) - perhaps which neighborhoods or cities have your favorite restaurant scenes or general attractions and vibe as well?

-Does anyone who has grown up and lives in a big city use travel guides for it (e.g. Frommer's, Rough Guide, etc.) to find things to do there?

-What do the statistically or football-ly inclined think of Nate Silver's new Soccer Power Index at ESPN.com (a good summary of it may be found at Dave Cameron's hang out, full methodology here)

-What new blogs, fiction, or LL-safe non-fiction books have you recently discovered?

-What's the best piece of advice anyone's ever given you?

-Anything else you'd like to talk about?

Lookout Landing as a communtiy

2009-11-14T23:07:31Z

Hi guys,

My name is Chintan Desai and I am a member of the Lookout Landing community and UC Davis student doing a paper on a community that I am apart of. I have decided to choose the Lookout Landing community. In order to do so, I have to collect some census data on the demographics of the community that I have chosen so that I can accurately paint a picture of the community as a whole. Now obviously there is the problem with the anonymity of the Internet, so I was wondering if you guys could help me out by listing as much as you want of the following things: There is no pressure to fill out all of this, but obviously the more I have the more useful it would be.

Age:

Male/Female:

Education Level:

Race/Ethnicity:

Now, obviously asking for people's race/ethnicity may be controversial, but again note that this is simply for a research paper on community. None of this information will be used for anything other than the paper. I will also gladly share the paper with you once it is complete.

Thanks guys! Hope to hear your responses!

The Sabermetrics of Cats

2009-11-14T03:27:38Z

My cat 'Baxter' is the Franklin Gutierrez of cats.

And not just in that he is good looking. He is very athleticic and can do some incredible jumps and backflips.

Truly, he is Death to Flying Things, with extreme bird-catching ability. I would estimate him to be a +20 Birdcatcher, possibly even the greatest Birdcatcher in the league. His defensive value alone is worth 2 Birdcatching Wins (10 Bird Catches per Birdcatching Win). On the MLB free agent payscale of 4.5 million per win in 2009, I thus estimate him to be worth around $8-9 Million per year.

If you are a major league General Manager and are interested in discussing the acquisition this incredible talent, just let me know!

Royals determined to unload Callaspo...

2009-11-12T23:11:34Z

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1564411-p2.html

The part of this article that interests me:

Rumors suggest the Royals are seeking to swing a deal with the Dodgers to acquire catcher A.J. Ellis for second baseman Alberto Callaspo. If true, financial benefits would be down the road. Callaspo should reach arbitration eligibility after next season, but Ellis not until after 2011 at the earliest.

If those talks stall, the Royals seem determined to unload Callaspo in hopes of selling high after a season in which he batted .300 with a .356 on-base percentage, 11 homers and 73 RBIs.

Well, you can't say Dayton Moore doesn't evolve. He's gone from his "look at the wrong things and buy high" strategy to a modified version of "sell high" that has led him to the conclusion that after batting .300 in his age-26 season and failing to qualify for super-2 status Alberto Callaspo has to go. Wow. Callaspo is coming off a 2.8 WAR season where he maintained his excellent contact rate (8.9K%) and nearly tripled his career .ISO. Yes, he's not great on defense and a lot of his value lies in his batting average, but with his ability to make contact there's good reason to believe he isn't due for major regression, and his .315 BABIP this year doesn't exactly scream fluke. The return Moore appears to be looking at? A 28 year old slap-hitting catcher who failed to hit a single home run in the Albuquerqe band box.

Callaspo failed to qualify as a super-2, so he's near league minimum for another year. He's bad at 2B, but he's not a total butcher and he's shown some ability to play 3B in the past. He's also under club control for his age 27-30 seasons, and he's coming off a .352 wOBA this year. He's a switch-hitter whose value shouldn't be undermined too much by the Safeco effect, and as a guy with a good bat who doesn't steal bases or put up gaudy HR totals, he's likely to get undervalued a bit in arbitration, keeping his price tag low through his prime. In short, I'm a fan.

This looks like a great opportunity to add a couple wins to the 2010 roster for virtually no cost. If the rumors are true and AJ Ellis is the kind of return that Moore's looking for, I have to believe the Mariners are capable of stepping in and offering more. We already know Moore overvalues scrappy Mariner castoffs.

Thoughts?

Ackley and Triunfel on MLB TV right now

2009-11-08T01:38:42Z

AFL baseball action on live TV, some kind of all-star game. Ackley is in Center ad Triunfel is at short. So far Ackley is getting a lot of work in Center and he looks like he's got good range. I'm not sure about his arm, he seems to be short arming the ball a bit.

I'm not sure if this is common knowledge, but I'm jonsing for some Mariners and this is as close as we're going to get for a while.

Xbox LLive, Pt 3

2009-11-06T21:02:42Z

Might as well post this now, since I heard there's a big game coming out next week.

A bunch of LL-ers are on Xbox Live and play games with each other - who else out there has an Xbox and wants to join up? As of Tuesday, Nov 10, we will be playing Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 pretty much fulltime, so feel free to join the party and get a few games in.

A forewarning - do not put your earpiece too close to your ear when playing with me.

LL SN - XBL tag

seattlebruin - seattlebruin

Scruffy Lefty - Scruffy Lefty

tootthekazoo - TootMyKazoo

Robert - WeaselRed

BrianL - BDL88

JamMaster Jesus - imeatinbutter

Phildopip - Phildopip

BrettJMiller - Bretticus

Ralphie81 - Ralphie81

royalcurve - Royalcurve

Coach Owens - Coach Owens 00

Nate Dogg - herr414

Ckel - Ckel44

seattlesundevil - Hessbian

hcoguy - hcoguy

bmxnw - Distant Echo

seattlecougar - Heeb McMazeltov

joof - Joofie

Jason X USN - Jason X USN

bluemax - BlueMax MB

qrsouther - PapaBear94 (seriously?? 1994??)

Add your names in the comments and discuss, will update the FanPost with everyone's names as we go.

OT on a friday morning 11/6

2009-11-06T17:31:38Z

Mostly because the last one hit over 1000 comments, primarily due to a spirited discussion about meaningful things.You won't find that here, though, bucko.

Anyone watch the new version of "V"? Was there anything more to it than Morena Baccarin's cool new haircut?

Anyone going any where near the scarifying rotoscoping of A Christmas Carol?

Is Anthony Lane one of the most entertaining film reviewers working today?

"Please make sure, when you buy a ticket for “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire,” to pronounce the title in full. I know you will. There was a plan to call it “Push,” until another movie got there first. But why not call the new one “Precious,” and leave it at that? After all, Deborah Kerr didn’t star in “The Innocents: Based on the Novella ‘The Turn of the Screw’ by Henry James,” and Dustin Hoffman didn’t star in “Rain Man: Based on the Overwhelming Desire to Win an Academy Award by Dustin Hoffman,” so why the change in rubric?"

Curiously wondering what the plan is...

2009-11-06T04:11:04Z

I'm going to start this off by saying thank you for everyone's amazing insight. I have always been an average fan (not really into advanced statistics) until i started reading the insights of Jeff and Co. My question has to do with the future. What is the plan for Ackley? Saunders seems to have found a home in left. Gutierrez is an absolute stud in center. And, of course Ichiro in right. I know Ackley played first at UNC but he is a projected center fielder. Is Saunders going to be the odd man out? Jeff compared him to Randy Winn a while ago and seems pretth high on him. I guess this is a good problem to have. It would be awesome to hear your guys thoughts on where things might sit come September call ups and how our outfield might look in the future. Sorry if the post isn't up to par with the site, I was never one to be great with words.

Is anyone else going to make fun of this picture?

2009-11-05T15:53:25Z

That was a ripoff, One of the worst World Series' I can remember. I really wanted to see Philli win, Raul would have gotten his long deserving rings, Utley or Lee would have gotten the MVP. Matsui only played in half of the series, he didn't diserve it, Plus I always kinda liked watching A-Rod not get a title.

BTW:

Is Anyone else going to make fun of this picture? I think it needs to be done.

Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly.

2009-11-05T00:40:26Z

I wrote this.

I'll take it down if y'all think it's stupid.

________________

This summer, Major League Baseball revealed its newest statistical plaything, hit f/x, which records the speed of batted balls. This technological toy may not exactly revolutionize the way the game is played, but it does add a critical variable to a hitter’s value – how hard he can hit. Now teams can determine which batters truly hit the stuffing out of the ball.

Strangely, this hit-tracker data seems to go against conventional baseball wisdom. Hit-tracker results have recently revealed that players with lower batting averages actually hit the ball harder than those with high batting averages. Does that mean that to achieve a high degree of success, a hitter needs to hit the ball softer that he otherwise would? Looking beyond the numbers, we discover that this conundrum is an issue of logic.

It is generally accepted in the literary world that plot and character vary inversely; rarely do we find a book with an in-depth plot and intricately developed characters. Similarly, in the world of baseball, speed varies inversely with power; there are exceptions, but it is unusual for a power-hitter to steal 20 bases in a season, or for a lanky speed-demon to hit 30 homers.

A substantial percentage of the batters with batting averages over .300 in the 2009 season had around 15-18 infield hits. There were outliers, of course, but the trend stuck for the most part. Let’s take a look at how some of baseball’s top hitters (in terms of batting average) might have fared without that extra bit of speed. Obviously this is not completely indicative of how they actually would have done, but it’s an interesting experiment.

A table:

	# of Infield Hits	Batting Average	Batting Average Minus Percentage of Infield Hits
Ichiro Suzuki	50	.352	.273
Jacoby Ellsbury	26	.301	.259
Pablo Sandoval	16	.330	.302
Denard Span	23	.311	.271
Jason Bartlett	15	.320	.290
David Wright	13	.307	.283
Scott Posednik	27	.304	.254
Skip Schumaker	13	.303	.278
Hanley Ramirez	17	.342	.312
Nyjer Morgan	15	.307	.275
Derek Jeter	22	.334	.299
Erick Aybar	16	.312	.280

Notice that this trend only serves to prove the importance of speed in the batting averages of players who have an abundance of it. David Wright and Pablo Sandoval still retain high batting averages despite when we subtract a portion of their speed.

Because power-hitters tend to be physically larger and thus slower than other hitters, they don’t beat out as many groundballs as quicker hitters, decreasing their batting average by approximately 17/550, or almost .031. For example, Wladimir Balentien, formerly of the Seattle Mariners, had the fastest average batted ball speed during April 2009 (according to Matthew Carruth http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2009/6/6/901100/mariner-hitters-batted-ball-speeds), but a paltry average. Ichiro, on the other hand, had the lowest average batted ball speed but his usual high average during that stretch.

In reality, batters that hit the ball hard often aren’t quick enough to reach first base on a weakly hit ground ball, knocking a significant amount off their average.

Contact rates actually player a larger role in this issue than does speed. Players, like the aforementioned Balentien, who swing for the fences all the time usually have low contact rates. And you’re certainly not going to get a hit if the ball doesn’t leave the catcher’s mitt. Here I generalize quite a bit – not all power hitters are free-swingers, but those that do see that batting averages drop quite a bit despite hitting for power and a high hit f/x value.

What does this mean? Honestly, I don’t know. Infield hits are flawed because in using them to make a point, one must assume that the official made the right call (error vs. hit). Plenty of power hitters are disciplined.

Any thoughts?

Somewhat OT: Kid dies from aluminum bat, family now rich

2009-11-04T11:14:46Z

Mont. jury awards $850,000 in aluminum bat lawsuit

I'm sure opinions will vary, though most people I've talked to fall into two catagories. One being, what the hell was this jury smoking? And the other being that this will help get rid of "dangerous" aluminum bats in little league/high school/legion ball.

FootbaLL III (Nov 7th)

2009-11-01T21:08:55Z

Is anyone interested in some FootbaLL at Cal Anderson Park or Seattle U this upcoming Saturday at 1ish? I may be a tad late because I have tree planting again. November 7th is the 4th annual Green Seattle Day, and a number of parks in Seattle (Cheasty Greenspace and many other forested locations across Seattle.
Locations include: Carkeek, Golden Gardens, Ravenna Park, Burke-Gilman Trail, Discovery, St. Mark's Greenbelt, Leschi Overlook, Seward, Maple School Ravine, East Duwamish Greenbelt, Westcrest, Lincoln, Camp Long, Orchard Street Ravine, and West Duwamish Greenbelt) are having sponsored events, so if you have time and don't want to play football (or want to play football after planting trees and pulling up rootballs and thistles, go ahead and sign up at your local park. It's a lot of fun.

On the 24th we had flags, courtesy of tworsandtwols, and had good games of 4 on 4 and 5 on 4.

(Edit: Flags no longer available)

In:

PlaySportsinSeattle (aka Ocho Cinco Wes Welker)

Katal

JamMasterJesus

Baker + 1

Timdor

Jaejo

BrettJMiller

John Bai (Flippy Floppy) + Softball Wife Lindsay

KirkHarbaugh (If he wakes up)

OFFTOP: 10/30/09

2009-10-30T17:48:19Z

While in college, I was an active seeker of music. It was easy to dedicate the time needed to research, listen, and be discerning in what I listened to. After college, however, my music stagnated for a while. I had a lot of music, just nothing new.

However, when I finally discovered how great podcasts are, I immediately subscribed to some music podcasts (KEXP's Song of the Day, and Music That Matters; NPR's All Songs Considered) and started rediscovering my hunger for new music.

Here's a list of artists I've discovered in 2009 that I really really enjoy:

Alaska in Winter - Fascinating indie electronic. Check out the song Close Your Eyes - We Are Blind. Heavenly.
Asteroid No. 4 - I actually started listening to one of their albums in 2007, but didn't really appreciate it (and their other albums) until this year.
Bon Iver - Spare, ever-so-delicate indie folk.
Choir of Young Believers - Folk + dream pop + indie pop = awesome.
Dead Man's Bones - Ryan Gosling's band. Dark indie folk. Surprisingly good for a celebrity band.
Dr. Dog - Bright indie pop that's sort of a throw-back to the Beatles and the Beach Boys.
Faunts - Incredible indie electronic. These guys fucking rock.
The Low Anthem - Indie folk that is occasionally quite rough around the edges, but is frequently beautiful.
Malajube - Bright indie pop from Montreal.
Patrick Watson - Crazy instruments and deep layering make for a very rich listening experience.
Sarah Siskind - Folk. She has one of the most incredible voices I've ever heard.
Sholi - Complex melding of dream pop and post-rock.
Vitality - Spare, strange. Sort of rap, but not really. The "rapper" kind of sounds like Dan Aykroyd.

Who have you discovered this year? Any new favorite artists? Any previous favorite artists who have disappointed you this year?