I don't usually do this, but since it's not worth coming up with a new way of saying the same thing, here's a giant blockquote from June 21st:

Staying on Bedard, but dealing with something totally different, all this criticism he's been getting for being a "100-pitch pitcher" - it's bullshit. It's bullshit. Not the statement; Bedard does indeed generally top out around 100-110. But the insinuations are bullshit. People - fans, coaches, and team officials alike - have used that line to accuse Bedard of being soft, of being too selfish and not caring enough about the team. They wanted a workhorse and feel like they've been stuck with a burro, and they're upset about it. They feel like Bedard should be giving something more.

Here's the thing: no one knows a pitcher better than the pitcher. No one. You can monitor his velocity or look at how much he's sweating or see if he's slowing down his pace, but only the pitcher truly knows if he has anything left in the tank. And if he doesn't, then it benefits nobody to leave him out on the hill to "gut it out." Assuming that Bedard really is only capable of throwing ~100 pitches - which seems like a safe assumption, since that's how he's been his entire career - then why on earth would you want him to try and go longer? Especially being as fragile as he is.

You know who hasn't gotten any complaints about being soft? Jarrod Washburn. Jarrod Washburn is a gamer who leaves it all on the mound, and then some. He's the kind of pitcher a manager loves to have, a real bulldog. A bulldog with a career OPS against of 1.013 after 100 pitches.

This is why good-old-boys baseball is stupid. Because those people are mad at Bedard for being smart and happy with Washburn for being retarded. This kind of relates to the whole fallacy about playing through injuries. If you're hurt and the pain is negatively affecting your performance, you shouldn't be playing. It's the same way with fatigue. If a pitcher is tired - and I see no reason to doubt that Bedard wears down around 100 pitches - then, as much as your standard Reconstruction Era manager might like to see him man up, the prudent thing to do is for the pitcher to be honest about his condition. That's good for the team, far better than any psychological boost the guys might get from watching a tired starter suck it up and jeopardize his health while throwing worse pitches than he was at the beginning. That's why you have bullpens.

If you want to criticize Bedard for not showing enough emotion or for not working hard enough in practice, then whatever, go right ahead. But what really matters is what a player does between the lines during a game, and Bedard is catching flak for doing what's right. I'm sorry, but I just find that beyond ridiculous.

Two weeks later, we're still hearing the same stuff - Bedard has girl parts, and he needs to man up, because he's been advertised as an ace, and manning up is what aces are supposed to do. Aces don't come out of a game at 99 pitches. True aces "throw left until there's nothing left." It's the only way.

For one thing, this isn't anything new. What follows is a list of Bedard's average pitches per appearance in starts lasting at least five innings (thereby eliminating the games from which he was removed due to injury or ineffectiveness):

2005: 106
2006: 103
2007: 106
2008: 102

It's a drop, yeah, but hardly a significant one. Four pitches is about one batter. If the Mariners have a huge problem with Bedard's in-game stamina, then presumably they should've had the same concerns when they traded for him, which means either (A) they didn't do their research, or (B) they're yelling at the rooster for crowing at the sun. Bedard's been dogged by durability questions for his entire career, and to complain about them now - especially when the team has so many way bigger problems - is diversionary, senseless, and more than a little mean-spirited. It is and has always been a known issue. Deal with it.*

* Did you know that Carlos Silva hasn't thrown a single fastball at 98 miles per hour all year long? Outrageous!

For another...look, this isn't about Erik Bedard coming out at 100 pitches. It is on the surface, but this is what you find when you really get down to the details:

(1) People are mad at Erik Bedard for not throwing enough pitches
(2) Therefore, people are mad at Erik Bedard for coming out of games too early
(3) Erik Bedard's in-game stamina hasn't really changed all that much, if at all
(4) Erik Bedard has simply been less effective than he was a year ago
(5) Therefore, people are mad at Erik Bedard for being less effective
(6) Erik Bedard is less effective because he's dealing with a litany of aches and pains in his hip, back, and shoulder
(7) Therefore, people are mad at Erik Bedard for getting injured
(8) Erik Bedard has always been injury-prone
(9) Therefore, people are mad at Erik Bedard for being Erik Bedard

I guess this isn't "another thing" so much as it is a continuation of the first thing, but anyway. Is it really fair to be upset with someone because he got injured? Bedard might've even been better off just going on the 60-day DL as soon as he hurt his hip, since at least that way the insults would be less personal. However, he's decided to pitch through all the soreness and stiffness, and rather than applauding Bedard for being tough, fans have blasted him for not throwing more, for not throwing better. Blasted him for pushing his already fragile body to the limit, because the limit isn't high enough. Blasted him for being soft and for being a quitter, even though the mere fact that he still pitches despite every indication that God disapproves is evidence to the contrary. Blasted him for essentially being what he's always been, because he was sold as the savior in a season that's gone to shit.

Look, if you want to label Erik Bedard a disappointment, that's fine. I'd even agree with you. I expected a hell of a lot more than what he's given. But to imply that he's a bad teammate and somehow less of a man because he wasn't blessed with a durable body, and because he knows his own limits...no. No. It goes beyond the threshold of acceptable frustration and approaches a level of irrational invective from which, given all the Snelling and Griffey love, I thought we were immune. I guess I was wrong.

Erik Bedard hasn't done as well as we thought he would. Meanwhile, a bunch of other players haven't done anything at all. Try to set aside your feelings about the trade for one minute and take heed of what's really important. Do I wish Bedard were more durable? Of course I do. I also wish Felix threw a fastball that rises and had a little strobe light in the middle of his forehead that would on every pitch activate upon release of the ball and flash and also emit a high piercing squeal so as to leave the batter in a state of blinding agony. But the reality is that Felix is Felix and Bedard is Bedard, and while everyone on the team could theoretically be doing better than they are, the fact of the matter is that you are as you were born, and there's nothing anyone can do to change it.

Erik Bedard is a pretty fragile pitcher. He's also a pretty effective pitcher. Lay off of the guy and realize that, should the Mariners make a run for it next year with Bedard still in the dugout, there are few other arms in the league you'd rather have pitching for the good guys. 99 solid pitches can pack a hell of a punch.

Note: posting will be back to normal tomorrow.

(Game thread posted below.)

When my plane landed in San Diego, I turned on my phone to seven new text messages and two new voicemails. When I got home and booted up the computer, I found five new Bavasi-related emails. Needless to say, it was a bit of a deluge. I'm still waiting for a knock on the door from FedEx since that seems to be the next logical step.

Leone For Third first opened up about a week before Bavasi was hired back in the fall of 2003. For all intents and purposes, as a blogger, I have known no other GM. The four and a half years since have been fraught with disappointment and well-intentioned failure. Bavasi's always been a hell of a guy who only wanted what was best for the team and who's always been willing to talk with his harshest critics face to face, but while I commend him for that, at the end of the day, if the only people you're meeting are critics, that means a lot is going wrong, and too much has gone wrong for the organization to justify keeping him in his role.

Bill Bavasi is finished as a Major League GM. I mean, sure, I guess the slim possiblity always exists that he could luck himself into another situation, but baseball is shifting irreversibly away from the back-slapping old school approach to roster management, and as Derek(?) remarked about the soon-to-be-fired John McLaren on Saturday, no team with a vacant managerial position down the road is going to look at Bavasi and say "that's the guy we need." It just isn't going to happen. Teams are smarter than that now*. Don't get me wrong, Bavasi will always be able to land a job with some organization if he's so inclined - other failed throwback GMs like Cam Bonifay, Dan Evans, and Woody Woodward have been able to stick around for quite a while as assistants and scouts. But as the guy leading the show, Bavasi is almost certainly done. He's exhausted his opportunities.

I suppose it's appropriate that a regime that never once demonstrated a solid grasp of probability was done in by its greatest gamble. 2008 was supposed to be the year. This was Bavasi's fifth season at the helm, and this was presumably the roster that Bavasi had been trying to build. The roster sucks. I don't know if you've looked at the standings recently, but the team that Bavasi thought was a playoff contender has been, for eleven weeks, three and a half games worse than any other team in baseball. That's really bad. And with so little help on the way, it's not going to be a real easy situation for whoever comes next. I won't go so far as to say that we're completely ruined, because we're not, but this organization is a mess, in large part due to Bavasi's lack of foresight.

Say what you will about ownership's intervention. From things like the Carlos Guillen deal to the Johjima extension, I think we all know that Bavasi was operating within certain constraints. But with that said, over the years it's become abundantly clear what he's all about. He loves chemistry. Loves it. Loves talking about it, and loves trying to build it, even though he himself has said that it's nigh impossible to predict. He also loves veterans, labels, roles, and spending way too much money on marginal improvements. Throw in a crippling inability to evaluate pitching and defense and you have the makings of a disaster. To his credit, Bavasi's pretty good with acquiring minor leaguers and locking up young players to long-term deals, but the former has more to do with his scouts, and as for the latter, on the day of his termination Bavasi's front office found itself at a standstill in contract negotiations with one of the greatest young talents the league has to offer. While the man may not have been granted free reign to do whatever he wanted, given what we know about him, shouldn't we be thankful for that? Ignore the results and look at the thought processes. There is no reason to believe that Bill Bavasi is even a half-decent general manager, and the organization is better off now than it was this morning.

It isn't yet time to celebrate. When I read those messages and listened to my voicemail, I was interested, but I wasn't smiling. Remember the official LL slogan for 2008: It Can Always Get Worse. Today the organization released one of its heaviest anchors. That's good news. But until we know who comes next, I don't think it would be wise to party too hard. In the event that Armstrong and Lincoln stick around, are they going to interview some fresh new blood, or will they stick with the same pool of retreads that can't find work anywhere else? What about Bob Fontaine? What's he going to do? Will the new guy approach Felix with the same zeal that Bavasi did Yuni and Lopez, or will they remain at an impasse? There are a lot of important questions to be asked, and for the time being, we don't have any answers. And so I beg of you, do not assume that we'll come out of this all peaches. We could and we should, but until we know, it's silly to take future improvement for granted. If the Bavasi era taught you anything, let it be that.

I'm looking forward to the interview process. This is a team that could reasonably decide to either play for 2009 or blow everything up, and that's exciting, both for us as fans and for applicants as GM. It's kind of nice to have the immediate future so open-ended, if only because Bavasi was so eminently predictable. I'm excited and nervous. But I'm not nervous because I'm fearful of impending doom; I'm nervous because I don't know quite how to respond to this glimmer of hope. There exists for us and for this organization a glimmer of hope. Not false hope. Real hope. It's there and I can feel it, and for the first time in what seems like forever, I don't know what's going to happen. I don't know the next step. I don't know who Armstrong and Lincoln will interview. I don't know if Armstrong and Lincoln will even be around for the interviews. I don't know what approach the new GM will take with this team. I don't know.

And that's what's so exciting.

* except for the Astros

I don't have anything mindblowing to say about Bedard's performance this afternoon (good stuff, weak command), but it's been a while since the last time I did this, so I thought I'd throw up a couple charts.

You've seen both of these before. The chart type, anyway. 96 of Bedard's 99 pitches were captured by PITCHf/x, with 71 of them coming against right-handed hitters. During these at bats he threw 46 fastballs, 24 curves, and one changeup (not shown). He spent a lot of time around the edges, which is usually a safe place to be when you're trying to avoid solid contact, but because he didn't have his best command he also spent a lot of time just outside of the zone. He did do a good job of keeping his fastball away from the middle of the plate. Bedard's fastball had strong velocity (91.8 average, topped out at 94), but it's a pretty straight pitch, and not the kind of thing he wants to put in the wheelhouse. He can get away with catching more of the plate with his curve since it's more difficult to hit, but even there he stayed around the edges. He seems to be fond of trying to get high-away called strikes and low swinging ones. The results weren't necessarily there today, but the intent certainly was. Dustin Pedroia just kept spoiling his best pitches.

Against lefties, Bedard threw 16 fastballs, eight curves, and one slider (not shown). You can clearly see him trying to stay away, as he didn't throw a single pitch in the strike zone on the inner half. He did center three fastballs, each of them coming early in at bats (two first pitches, one second pitch), but two of them were fouled off and Brandon Moss swung through the other. Once again you can see him trying to use the curve to induce weak contact off the end of the bat. With the fastball generally being up and away and the curve being down and away, it must've been difficult for left-handed hitters to distinguish between them, as they would've been in the same area until the curve fell off the table at the end. Interesting that, against lefties, Bedard didn't throw a single pitch below the knees. Small sample size warnings apply, but based on this it seems like he'd rather see lefties flail than swing over something low. Come to think of it, the only pitches he threw below the knees against righties were curves. I wonder if he's had some bad experiences with low fastballs in the past.

To change course a little bit, now I want to show you something that I first saw used by Josh Kalk over at THT, just because I think it's super cool. The following is what Erik Bedard's average fastball and curveball from this afternoon look like from the side:

...and this is what they look like from above:

PITCHf/x starts tracking 50 feet away from home plate, so 50 feet is what I'm sticking with. In the first image you can clearly see the big hump in his curveball, and over its final 40 feet in the air it dropped four feet nearly straight down. Put another way, Erik Bedard's average curveball this afternoon dropped from the batter's head to the batter's knees. Try reacting to that in half a second. (Bedard's curveball flies for ~0.5 seconds, while his fastball is closer to 0.4). You can also see that his curveball release point was a little higher than the one he used for his heater. From what I can tell, this has been a pretty consistent phenomenon across starts dating back to last year, and gun to my head I'd say this is how Bedard compensates for throwing a curve with so much break. He releases it a little higher so that it doesn't always just end up bouncing in the dirt. It seems like this might be a bit of a pitch-tip, but given how successful he was in 2007, it doesn't strike me as being a major concern.

The bottom image is a little more difficult to understand, but just think of it as a bird's eye view. 0 on the y axis refers to the center of the plate, so the pitches come from ~2.6 because Bedard is left-handed and therefore releasing on the left-hand side of the rubber. You can see his fastball with a little tailing action; at first it looks like it'll end up inside on a righty, but it runs away to the outer half. His curveball, meanwhile, does just the opposite, hovering outside before dropping in over the last several feet. It doesn't simply fall off the table - it falls off the table while moving a good horizontal 4-8 inches. So you can see why this pitch is so difficult for hitters to square up.

Nothing groundbreaking, but still, all kinds of fun stuff. I can hardly remember what it felt like to be a baseball fan before PITCHf/x. It must've been terrible.

A comparison between Bedard's follow-throughs in his best start of 2007 and what may have been his best start of 2008:

I'm not going to be one of those guys who pretends to know everything about pitching mechanics, but what I do know is that there's no clearer indication of a change or tweak to a delivery than an altered follow-through, and the top images are significantly different from the ones on the bottom. Note that the trailing leg came further around up top (two days ago), leading to Bedard's shoulders being more closed to home plate. Down bottom, he ends up in better "fielding position". This suggests that, against Boston, there was more energy in the trailing leg, and therefore less energy going to home plate.

I don't know what this means. It may not mean anything. But there you go. There's some potential evidence that Erik Bedard is throwing the ball somewhat differently than he was in 2007.

Note: there were pitches on 5/28 after which Bedard wound up open, and there were pitches on 7/7 after which Bedard wound up closed. Mechanics are never 100% consistent. I'm showing these images because I think he wound up open more often in the Texas start than in the Boston start, implying - but in no way confirming - some sort of change. Do not attempt to draw sweeping conclusions from this. It's something interesting, and nothing more.

Tonight wasn't all downside. If you can look past the awful hitting and awfuler defense (when I talk about our bad defense I'm referring to range, so this was a whole new pile of suck), there was one big positive, and that was the pitching of Erik Bedard.

First things first: yes, Bedard's fastball seemed to be missing some miles today. With an average velocity of 88.5mph according to PITCHf/x, it was down two miles from last week and three miles from Opening Day. However, Wang was also down several miles from where he usually hangs out as well, suggesting that either it was too cold in New York for the starters to get comfortable, or there's something wonky with Yankee Stadium's PITCHf/x system. Whatever the case may be, Bedard certainly wasn't knocked off his game, so I'm not the least bit concerned.

Below are the four main graphs of Bedard's PITCHf/x data for his seven innings tonight, which are pretty self-explanatory:

Nothing groundbreaking in there, but again, you can get a pretty good sense of Bedard's game plan. Pitch on the outside corner against lefties and drop the curve down and away. Then spot the fastball all over the zone against righties while using the outside curve for surprise strikes and the low curve for misses. His actual strikeout pitches were pretty well mixed up, which I'd imagine is good for two reasons - (1) he didn't fall into any patterns, and (2) it shows he's capable of punching batters out with more than one pitch. But that's just hypothesizing.

This was a really good start. Granted, the Yankees weren't sending out the most intimidating lineup, but even if you skip over the PITCHf/x stuff and just go straight to the numbers, here's what you get:

70% strikes
17% swinging strikes
4 hits, only one of which was a line drive
1 walk, after walking four in each of his first three starts
6 strikeouts

By far the best performance of Bedard's brief Mariner career, as his only real mistake was leaving an 0-2 fastball up for Matsui to line into left field in the first. Other than that, he was great, and over his final five innings - during which he allowed all of "two" baserunners (up yours Giambi) - he was spectacular.

While I'm still a little concerned about his hip, it's clear that if it's bothering him, it's not taking any kind of toll on how he pitches. This was the ace we thought we were getting from Baltimore. Here's to seeing a whole hell of a lot more of him.

It's not good.

The Mariners are being coy about it, but the situation looks to be worse than they're letting on, and the fear is that if Bedard gets an MRI and a proper diagnosis, they'll have to shut him down for a significant amount of time. And if they don't do that and decide to play it day by day, it's an injury that could nag him all season.

There's really nothing we can do but cross our fingers that Bedard heals quicker than he's ever healed before in his life. Ever since we first caught wind of the trade rumors in December, we've known that he's fragile. Well, now we're confronted by his fragility, and we've no choice but to deal with it and hope for the best. In the meantime, man this sucks.

I guess in a way we kind of deserved this, what with everything the Angels are going through. I thought things were getting a little too easy.

Ironic that there were rumors about AJ's hip holding up the trade not too long ago. Good one, world.