I don't understand how they pulled this off.

Pat Burrell is leaving the World Series champion Philadelphia Phillies for the runner-up Tampa Bay Rays.

Burrell has agreed in principle to a two-year, $16 million contract with the Rays, sources told ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney on Monday. The deal is pending a physical.

Going into the offseason, Burrell was one of those slugging corner outfield types I had pegged as likely to receive a retarded contract. Instead, the Rays signed him for less money and fewer years than the Phillies gave the older Raul Ibanez.

Burrell can't play defense, but he's been a +20-25 run hitter for four years in a row, and as a DH, he's due to be worth somewhere at or around two wins. Even with a skillset that doesn't age particularly well, he's a good bet to earn his deal, with the potential to do quite a bit more than that.

Real solid deal for Tampa Bay. And if this is what the market looks like, then suddenly I'm a little warmer to the idea of pursuing Adam Dunn. He's no Milton Bradley, but he'd be the best hitter in the lineup, and should he be willing to sign a reasonable contract, then that mitigates a lot of the presumed risk.

Fascinating.

Matthew's superior take:

The Rays have, or are about to, ink Pat Burrell to a two-year, $16 million deal. He's probably going to DH most of the time. That actually improves his value as with the positional dock that left field gets (-7.5), Burrell was costing the team about 20.5 runs by playing the field. Moving to DH negates the poor defense and only incurs a 17.5 run penalty. With his offensive projection, that makes Burrell between a 2 and 2.5-win player and worth $9-$11 million per year.

Raul Ibanez signed a three year, $31.5 million deal to continue playing left field. Ibanez projects to be worth around $5 million as an outfielder. The Phillies forfeited three draft picks by refusing to offer arbitration to Burrell and signing Ibanez instead. 

The Mariners used to be the Phillies. They are now the Rays.

Graham's take:

Don't be silly I never write anything.

UZR Projection:

Ibanez: -14 runs
Burrell: -18

PMR Projection:

Ibanez: -12 runs
Burrell: -16

+/- Projection:

Ibanez: -17 runs
Burrell: -19

(Projections are approximate and deliberately conservative)

Congratulations, Philadelphia. Signing Raul Ibanez has upgraded your defense.

Still a stupid contract, though. $30m/3yr is an awful price to pay for a 36 year old who might not even be worth one WAR in the first year of his deal.

Legend:

wOBA*: park-adjusted wOBA, taken from Stat Corner. Present-day value calculated using rough .1/.2/.3/.4 weighting approximation (2005-2008).

Defense: best guess as to each player's defensive runs contributed above/below posiitonal average, based on UZR, RZR, PMR, etc.

WAR: wins above replacement, with help from Tango. Current positional adjustments can be found here.

Those WAR figures are intended to reflect each player's estimated true value as of right now. And while you can quibble about things like defense and the weighting all you want, the take-home message is that Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell are wildly overrated, and Chase Utley is amazing. 

Keep in mind that, this season, Howard didn't even come close to that wOBA* estimate above. While his four-year estimate is .389, his 2008 performance stood at .359, which - when combined with his defense and position - made him a below-average player overall. Below average! And this is a guy that a few people think deserves the MVP. It boggles the mind. Howard might've been worse than Pedro Feliz.

I don't know that any player type gets overvalued the way slugging first basemen get overvalued. With rare exception, they simply aren't precious assets. That Ryan Howard got paid more than Chase Utley this season despite two fewer years' service time is one of the greater injustices in the league.