Who knew?

We'll have plenty of time this offseason to talk about that of which RRS is and isn't capable, but after a strong afternoon of confounding the A's with his curveball, RRS has accumulated a sample size of ten starts, and I gotta say, the data is pretty encouraging.

Not included is the fact that, in his ten starts, RRS averaged 104 pitches per. This from a guy who hadn't been a regular starter since 2005. I'll stop short of calling that "impressive", since it's really not, but it is definitely commendable. As a bonus, he showed no signs of wearing down. Not during games with high pitch counts, not after games with high pitch counts, not at the end of a long season - you could make a convincing argument that RRS' final two appearances of the year were his best. Hell, if you look at how much energy he seems to have when you read his blog, you get the feeling like he could play another one or two months. That says something. This is one guy who just really, really loves his job, and because of his talent and dedication, it would appear that he's just about written himself into next year's starting five. Which is exactly what we've all wanted to get out of this trial from the beginning.

Ryan, following your progress is one of the most - and only - enjoyable parts of cheering for this team, and I look forward to watching you build yourself a career as a starter down the road. I wish I could mail you a hug. Never leave us. Seriously. Never leave us. If you leave us I swear to God shit's gonna get real.

One of the downsides of knowing more about pitching than the Mariners is that, as much fun as it can be sometimes to rip into them about Washburn and Silva, I'm also acutely aware of when pitchers I like aren't quite pulling their weight. Armed with a 3.62 ERA and six consecutive quality starts, RRS was probably satisfied with how his rotation stint was going, but his raw performance hadn't actually been very good at all, to the tune of a 1.2 K/BB and a mid-6's tRA. Over his previous three games he'd allowed just seven runs despite walking twice as many guys as he struck out. As much as I wanted to be able to overlook the numbers in this one instance, I couldn't do it, not in good conscience. RRS had been pitching pretty poorly. Worse than Ryan Feierabend, worse than Jarrod Washburn, and even worse than Carlos Silva. Early, limited sample size aside, RRS' audition as a starter was not going as well as I'd hoped.

Thank heavens for tonight. For, tonight, RRS turned in a heck of a game.

It wasn't a dominant start by any means. RRS isn't going to dominate. But then, nobody expects him to. As I think I've said about a thousand times, all we want is for RRS to pitch like a fourth starter, and tonight, he pitched like a little more than that. Not only did he pound the zone with 77 strikes (67%), but he also kept 14 of 22 balls in play on the ground, something I don't think anyone expected him to be able to do when he first made the transition. That he struck out six hitters on top of all that actually reflects a bit of good luck, as he only missed a handful of bats, but his strikeout rate had that good luck coming anyway, and at the end of the night, RRS was staring at a sexy 7/2/1/6 final line. Solid pitching managed to yield him some excellent results, his first excellent results in nearly a month.

RRS' ERA as a starter now stands at 3.34. Unless something unlikely happens, it's funny how myself and the Mariners will take completely different approaches in arriving at the same conclusion.

Mariners:

-RRS has a starting ERA in the 3's
-RRS should be in the 2009 rotation

Me:

-RRS has a starting ERA in the 3's
-RRS' ERA as a starter is actually misleading, and in reality he's been pretty bad
-but has he deserved to be that bad? His ball% and swinging strike rates are fine
-therefore his K/BB as a starter is unsustainably low
-his ball in play profile is fine too
-but it's not, because home runs
-but the home run rate is flukily high and likely to regress
-accounting for probable regression, going forward indications are that RRS will be adequate, regardless of certain results to date
-RRS should be in the 2009 rotation

I'd complain that the Mariners are being too simplistic (and let's face it, that's exactly how they're going to think about this, or if nothing else how the current front office would think about this), but at least they're getting the right answer. RRS deserves to be a permanent part of this rotation. Or in the medium-term, anyway. And I don't much care how he proves it as long as he proves it. I'm just glad he's not mowing people down while getting enough bad luck to run an ERA in the high-Silva's. Given the way the rest of the season has gone, I'm actually kind of surprised that isn't happening.

It's interesting to take a look at RRS' numbers to see just how he's handled the transition from the bullpen to the rotation.

As expected, he's missing fewer bats, but this may be at least partially deliberate, as he's also throwing more strikes and generating way more groundballs, suggesting that in the interest of efficiency he's trying to get quicker outs. Which is a smart idea. Had I known that RRS was capable of keeping the ball on the ground at a league-average rate, I'd've been clamoring for this from the beginning. I just had no idea, and it'll take a little PITCHf/x investigating to figure out what he's changed in terms of approach to yield such dramatically different results. Groundball rates don't just change that much on their own. RRS is doing something he didn't do before, and I'd love to be able to figure out what. In the meantime, I'll just be happy that he's no longer using every ball in play to seed the clouds.

I'll cut myself off here. I don't really know what else there is to say. I'm happy to see RRS put up such a solid start against the team with the best record in baseball. I've always imagined that he was better suited as a starter than as a reliever, and my confidence didn't waver during his little recent stretch of mediocrity, but a start like tonight's really serves to boost my faith. The ability is there. Tonight, he showed it in spades. Good on you, RRS. May both yourself and your 70mph lollipop curve be rotation fixtures for many years to come.

(As starters)

I guess he's not the worst thing to happen to this rotation after all. There, I said it.

Last week against Oakland was good, but tonight against Minnesota...that was extraordinary. Understand that when I say "extraordinary" I mean it a little differently for RRS than I would for Felix - the definition is pretty dynamic as your level of expectations changes with the pitcher. But for a guy with a known back-of-the-rotation skillset, what RRS did to a decent Minnesota lineup was impressive and by a fair margin the best start of his young and (hopefully) blossoming career.

As usual, his effectiveness is plainly evident in the numbers. (In fact, this is always the case; you just have to be sure you're looking at the right ones.) He threw 107 pitches and showed no signs of any lingering effects from last week's challenge. His fastball stayed up in the 88-91 range, touching 91 in his final inning and averaging 89.2. He registered 11 swinging strikes - ten against righties - and only threw 34 balls. He got more grounders than fly balls. He only allowed one line drive. And so on and so forth. Even the pitch that Randy Ruiz hit for an opposite field home run was actually a good 0-1 fastball an inch off the plate outside. If RRS made a mistake tonight, the Twins didn't make him pay for it. And we're talking about a lineup that only featured three lefties (albeit three pretty good ones).

All in all, that's a good start for a #1. For a pitcher just trying to crack the ass end of the rotation, it's terrific. I'm thrilled to see RRS stretching out and making progress to the point at which he actually looks like a legitimately good starting pitcher for innings at a time. Obviously it's important for us to temper our expectations since he does have a reasonably low ceiling, but the fact that he may very well cut it as a starter is big news. This is why it's so important for us to ditch Jarrod Washburn. This is why it's stupid to hand out free money to schlubs like Carlos Silva. Because there are always guys like RRS* just waiting for their chance, and when they succeed, you end up with a lot of productivity for a little money for a long time. And that's the sort of thing that affords you the flexibility to, I dunno, help turn a bad team into a good one overnight. Hypothetically.

(* note: there are no guys like RRS. There is but one RRS, and he is neat.)

Nick S already said all that really needs to be said about this:

Incredibly Batista got pulled from the rotation today and still managed to get the loss.

For five innings, this was a hell of a game to watch. The M's were hitting Garza, the Rays weren't hitting RRS, and the outs were flying by such that it looked like we might get through everything in a timely, pleasant fashion. You really couldn't have asked for a better start. But then RRS got tired, Jimenez came apart, the Rays took the lead, and the game started to plod along at an unbearable pace. Sure the M's were able to come back a little later on, and yeah, over the duration there were more than a couple exciting and high-leverage showdowns, but the game was proceeding so slowly that by the ninth I was just pleading for some sort of conclusion. I didn't care how. I just wanted out. Fortunately these are the situations for which Miguel Batista was built. There are sure things, and then there's the eleventh inning today. Despite what some people might tell you, consistency isn't always a virtue, and Miguel Batista's a textbook example of why.

By the way, allowing the winning run before we got to bat around without a DH? Uncool. You can't watch Willie hurt himself and get as far as we did tonight without following all the way through and letting the pitcher bat. Now the whole deal just feels incomplete. And considering it took four and a half hours to finish, I didn't think that would be possible.

Biggest Contribution: Ichiro, +45.5%
Biggest Suckfest: Cesar Jimenez, -66.7%
Most Important AB: Beltre DP, -33.3%
Most Important Pitch: Crawford double, -29.9%
Total Contribution by Pitcher(s): -43.6%
Total Contribution by Lineup: -6.4%
Total Contribution by Opposition: 0.0%
(What is this chart?)

It's deathly late so I'm just going to occupy this space by talking about RRS' debut as a stretched-out Major League starter. Anyone who only looks at the box score without having watched the game is going to be left thinking he didn't pitch particularly well. Four runs and nine baserunners in 5.2 innings don't really represent an improvement over the guy RRS was replacing, and this was against a lineup without its megatalented young third baseman. In short, statistically, RRS could've been way more impressive.

But the truth of the matter is that, no matter what the numbers say, this was about as good of a game as we could've expected RRS to throw. I don't mean that to be disparaging, either; I mean he pitched well, and didn't deserve his mediocre results. Were there any justice in the world, he would've been able to drive home a winner. Instead, I don't know, maybe he picked Cesar Jimenez up by the neck and threw him into a wall. That seems to be a popular way of making people accountable.

There just isn't really all that much to complain about. All anybody expects from RRS is that he pitches like a #4 starter, and that's exactly what he did tonight. He missed a goodly number of bats (9). He generated a decent number of grounders (8). He didn't allow the Rays to spray line drives all over the field (4). He could've found the strike zone a little more often than he did, but that's just part of his identity. He isn't a guy who's going to pound the zone and put everything in play. He'll get a few more strikeouts, and he'll allow a few more walks. It may not be the perfect approach, but it's worked well for him in the past, so there's no reason to change. He'll pitch to the corners for better or worse, and more often than not, it's for the better.

He worked well through five innings before getting gassed in the sixth. And it was pretty apparent that he was running out of steam, too, because he started going through a steady cycle of wiping his brow and stepping off the rubber to buy himself more time. The traditional sign that a pitcher's getting tired is that he loses a few miles off of his fastball, but another solid indication is a slowing of the tempo, and RRS was clearly looking to take his time over those final few at bats. But then, considering he'd already thrown 105 pitches and had been the victim of some questionable defense, you could forgive him for not making it into the seventh. It would've been nice to see him walk off the mound triumphantly one more time, especially given the way he closed out the fifth with that strikeout of Pena, but when he was done, he was done. To be honest, I'm surprised they got as much out of Ryan as they did.

Not that his fastball was suffering, at least in terms of velocity. Observe:

First five fastballs: 88.7mph (average)
Middle five fastballs: 88.4mph
Final five fastballs: 89.0mph
First third: 88.9mph
Middle third: 88.3mph
Final third: 89.2mph

Aside from dialing things up to get through the fifth, RRS's velocity held steady for most of the game. And that's pretty impressive for a guy who hasn't consistently worked this deep into games in years and years. With him, fatigue seems to manifest itself in command, rather than velocity - you could see that later on he was starting to pitch around the zone, rather than in it, as his precision dropped off. He didn't fall apart or anything, but...okay, imagine a hypothetical circle with r = 6. This circle represents RRS' ability to locate his pitches when he's fresh. If he's aiming for the center of the circle, 90-95% of the time the ball will end up within the circle. Later on, when he's tired, the circle expands, to the point at which it has an r = 8 or 9. That's not a huge difference, but it is a substantial one, and it wouldn't surprise me if, over a large enough sample, RRS allowed a ~third of his walks to the final ~quarter of batters he faces in each start. Given that he doesn't exactly have knockout stuff to begin with, he probably isn't the sort of guy you want to leave out there long after he's started running on fumes. The damage may come gradually at first, but I imagine it would pick up pretty quickly if no one intervenes.

Tonight RRS was working with all four of his pitches, but the one that stood out - the one that's always stood out - was his big bendy curve. While it only comes in around the low-70s, it's such a change, and it has so much movement, that it's almost impossible to square up. We saw him drop one on Upton in the fifth on a 2-2 count that just froze Upton in his cleats. It's a dynamite pitch that'll give him another true weapon against lefties if he can get a hang of the command. Slightly better placement of the pitch gets him through Gabe Gross in the sixth before he ever hits the single to Lopez.

What does it look like? Here are the trajectory views from the top and the side:

Not only does it have that ridiculous amount of drop, but it also has more horizontal movement than the slider as well, and when you've got a guy on the mound with two distinct breaking balls that're only 4-5mph apart, it can be awful hard to distinguish between them in time to get a good swing. Of course, the curve takes a good half-second to get to home plate, so by itself it isn't all that hard to notice and at least foul off, but when you also have to protect against a faster breaking ball, then that's where it becomes extra tricky. Ask Carlos Pena. In three plate appearances against RRS, Pena saw 16 pitches and only two fastballs (one of which HIT HIM IN THE FACE). 13 were sliders or curves, and Pena swung through four of them while fouling off another three. Nobody else who appeared in the game tonight was as uncomfortable in the batters' box as Pena was against RRS. And that's saying something, because Pena's a heck of a hitter. But RRS had the upper hand, knew it, and took advantage of it. Those were some real quality at bats. Even the one where he beaned Pena in the face, because how often does anyone ever get beaned in the face?

For RRS, this was a quality start. Not according to the official rules, but according to anyone who knows anything about pitching, he threw the ball well tonight, and deserved a better fate. If he can keep up this sort of performance in the rotation through the end of the year, then that's big, terrific news for the organization. Because if you don't think it's valuable to have a competent #4/5 starter for close to the league minimum, then you haven't been watching much Carlos Silva.

Preach it, Hickey:

The Mariners aren't sure who will start Saturday against Tampa Bay, but they've told Miguel Batista it won't be him.

Batista, coming off two decent starts, lasted just three innings Monday against the Twins. It was the 14th time in 19 starts that Batista didn't pitch six innings. A year ago he reached at least the sixth inning 23 times in 32 tries.

The most likely candidate to start Saturday is former reliever Ryan Rowland-Smith.

Welcome back to the show, Ryan. You will be replacing a giant tool.

The big news afterwards? Miguel Batista says a new discovery is what led him to toss 7 2/3 scoreless innings and strike out eight.

Batista won't say what the discovery was. He isn't sure it's going to work again. But he sounds excited about it. He should be. His velocity wasn't there today, but the Angels were still swinging through his pitches all afternoon.

"I might have found something that I wish I might have found years ago in my career,'' Batista said. "I don't know if I'm right yet. It's going to take me at least four or five more starts to figure out if it's going to be able to work as good as I believe it might work.

"And if it does, I might be able to pitch another five years.''

As a starter, you couldn't even last another five months. But at least you pitched through pain, because you're a warrior, and a warrior looks out for his team. Nevermind that in so doing you repeatedly put your team at a substantial disadvantage. You manned up, dammit. You manned up and did your job, unlike that pussy Bedard. And for that you should be commended, not demoted. Can't nobody match your tenacity and heart. You left it all on the field every time you took the mound, and that's the only thing that matters.

Miguel, you suck. And your writing sucks too. Never again will I have to spend two hours watching you throw four innings, and that - that's better than coffee. What a good way to wake up.

(1) Life

From the profile on his new blog:

Favorite Sport to Watch: Hockey. I like to watch it live. They are fast, aggressive, and good athletes.

RRS is not a man. He is a non-stop endearing machine that is powered by awesome.

Not so much an analysis as a quick observation -

There was some concern tonight regarding RRS' fastball, as out of his 19 heaters he never once broke 88.4mph and only twice broke 87. Such concern is warranted, since RRS usually works in the 87-90 range and has a season average around 88. Velocity drops are never a good thing, and tonight RRS was exceptionally low:

The chart shows RRS' average fastball velocity by 2008 appearance. You can see that his velocity tonight was the lowest it's been all year. That one point above 91, by the way, was from the outing against the Angels where he was called on to retire Garret Anderson to end the game, and during that appearance RRS threw but a single adrenaline-loaded fastball, so you should probably consider that point an anomaly.

What was the matter tonight? I'm not sure. Maybe it was the rain. But gun to my head, I'd guess that it has something to do with this being RRS' sixth appearance in ten days. After being invisible for much of April, RRS has seen a lot more action in May - the most frequent action in his career. Wouldn't surprise me if he's wearing down a bit under the burden. Warming up and getting game action that often is bound to take its toll on someone whose body is unaccustomed to such repeated stress.

Hopefully the starting rotation is able to give RRS a bit of a breather in the coming days, and tonight turns out to be little more than a fluke. But this is something to keep an eye on. Sustained velocity drops are always bad. Should this keep up, then it's a problem.

By the way, that dotted line in the chart? That's RRS' average fastball a year ago. So far in 2008 he's down ~2mph. He's only exceeded last year's average on one occasion, and that was during the one-fastball Angels game. So that's a little disconcerting. Might (might) have something to do with his playing winter ball in Venezuela, but that's just a shot in the dark. Mitigating my concern, however, is the fact that, at least thus far, the velocity drop hasn't hurt his performance. His command's been a little off, but he's never had pinpoint location, and he's getting more swinging strikes now than he was last summer (19% to 17%). So if the data's correct and he really has lost a couple miles, he seems to have figured out a way to get by no worse for wear.

Hello good sir, have you considered us me for your ninth inning endeavors? Of course not, because you're a huge fucking asswagon.