Over the last few weeks we've seen projections for the M's 2012 season released from a variety of sources. For the most part they have ranged from what is in my opinion a little overly pessimistic (Clay Davenport's 68 win projection linked in a fanshot a couple days ago here) to what I would consider realistic but still depressing (Dave Cameron's ~75 win projection from a couple weeks ago on USS Mariner here). Obviously the Pineda/Montero trade and signing Kevin Millwood change things a little but probably not by more than +/- 3 wins. Ultimately I think ~77 wins is probably a pretty realistic expectation from the roster as it currently stands. That being said, we are just over two weeks from pitchers and catchers reporting and I have no interest in realism. Its cold out and I just want be excited about something. I want blind optimism damn it, at least until my dreams are crushed by the cold hard reality of Chone Figgins' OBP. It is in that spirit that I decided to try and figure out the absolute best case scenario for this team in 2012 (within reason obviously).

In order to figure this out I relied primarily on Fangraphs WAR (with numbers adjusted based on anticipated playing time based on Dave's article here). The projections I'm making here are in no way scientific and really all I tried to do was answer the question; what is the highest WAR I could see each player producing next season that wouldn't be completely shocking? The purpose for me was less trying to project the performance I think the team will have and more seeing if I could justify some level of excitement for the upcoming season for reasons beyond player development and baseline enjoyment of Mariners baseball even at its worst. I've attempted to provide some justification for each player to show what I was thinking and how I was able to justify each projection to myself.

For players entering their age 26-30 seasons, I simply looked at their Fangraphs WAR over the course of their career and assumed that in 2012 they would match the best season they had thus far unless there was a compelling reason to believe they couldn't do so (Guti). Younger players were a little more difficult and required case by case examination (For Ackley I just expanded his partial season performance from last season out over 650 PAs, while for Smoak I looked at what his full season performance would have been last year if he had played at the level of his two good months (April and September) all season). Older players were also a little tricky (by which I mean Ichiro was tricky) For Miguel Olivo and Chone Figgins I just stuck with Dave's original projections (although I took Olivo down from 1 to 0.5 WAR to take into account the fact that he will probably get fewer PAs with Montero around), and for Ichiro I took the average of his last 3 seasons to try and get something representing a realistic bounce back year while still accounting for his age (in all honesty I have no clue what to expect from Ichiro this year, I wouldn't be surprised if he was a 1 WAR player and really I wouldn't be surprised if he was a 5 WAR player). For the sake of simplicity I am just going to assume 3 WAR from the bullpen (1-1.5 from League and 1.5-2 from the rest as a group). That leaves us with the two Japanese rookies, Iwakuma and Kawasaki. Kawasaki I left as replacement level, and Iwakuma I penciled in for 2.5 WAR based on Dave's discussion of his potential upside after the move was announced here.

I'll include a player by player breakdown below in the interest of completeness but I'll save those who aren't interested some time by just putting my conclusions here. In my opinion, the best, reasonably realistic outcome for the 2012 Mariners is ~91 wins, which would probably not be enough to win the division but would have the M's in the wild card race (especially if the extra wild card is added this season). I absolutely am not suggesting that I think that is a particularly likely outcome, but it also isn't a completely ludicrous one. If a lot of things break their way, and everyone plays at the peak of their abilities, the 2012 Mariners have a chance of at least contending for an entire season. So until the Mariners crush my dreams yet again that is the potential outcome I'm going to be excited about.

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The old OT was making my ancient work browser asplode in terror, so here's a new one. I gave the topic away in the title, though. I don't like winter. Or, to be precise, I don't like never seeing the sun from October until April (or so it seems). So I cope by going away on trips - Hawaii last year, a cruise to Mexico leaving Saturday. Normally my trips aren't that extravagant, but I have to have at least one stretch of winter time where I can see some sun and feel some warmth on my skin.

What is your strategy for coping with winter? Do you just hunker down and drink your way through it, only re-emerging on July 4th, or do you not mind the short days and rain? If you live where "winter" means 70 degree instead of 90-100 degree days, do you miss the extra heat or do you like the break?

Sad beer news: My local Fred Meyer is out of Jubelale. BOOOOOOO

Hey all, it has been a while since I posted on here in a way other than comments and recently I have been looking at the organization as a whole and figured to share some of my thoughts and hopefully good insight on it all.

Following the trade for Montero the other day, the Mariners made one of the more stunning moves of the offseason, and while the good and bad of what we gave up has been debated back and forth many times now, the reality is Pineda is not ours but Montero is. In Montero we get what we hope will become a bat that sits in the middle of our order for years to come. Technically Montero is still a prospect although he is almost for sure to start the year in the majors this year. Looking at our Major League Roster with Montero in it we currently look to have good youth to build around in the future.

With Ackley, Montero, Smoak, and Felix holding down the young core in the majors and Carp potentially having a chance to join that group, one of my favorite things to look at is the minors and the system we have growing there. I, as many of you know, feel that the best way to build a long-term successful team is to build from within and supplement with FA signings to help put a team over the top. This is why I am very hopeful with the Mariners future when looking at the system Z has worked to put together in the recent years.

Headlined by what I consider our "Big 5" our system starts off extremely strong with the quintuplet of Montero, Hultzen, Walker, Paxton, and Franklin. This group of 5, I feel can rival just about any other organizations in the league. Hultzen, the 2nd overall pick in last year's draft, is someone we are all fairly familiar with. Although there was much commotion when the pick was announced, I have grown to love the pick as time goes on and he proves his worth. Pitching in the AFL, his only professional action thus far, Hultzen started 6 games pitching to the tune of a 1.40 ERA in just over 16 innings striking out 18 in this time. While a small sample size his showing was impressive and in the Rising Stars game, pitching against Gerrit Cole, it was a beautiful thing to see him strike out Grossman, Trout, and Lake, especially Trout:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19980217&c_id=mlb

Walker, while never pitching above Single-A Clinton, has made a name for himself in his first professional season out of high school. At only 19 (not 20 until August), Walker, who was considered raw coming out of the draft after being a two-sport athlete in high school, flashed much more polish than was expected. He still has work to do on his Change-up and the control/command combo, but both the fastball and curveball look to be potentially elite and if the Change develops in the next year I won't be afraid to say he has ace potential. Keeping in mind that he is only 19, it is likely that he will start at High Desert next year if not just for the fact that it is near where he is from. A push to AA Jackson is feasible during the season and it wouldn't surprise me to see it if he has success at High Desert.

Paxton, while he doesn't have the ace potential I see the other two having, does have what it takes to potentially become a solid #1 for most teams. More realistically I expect to see him become a very good #2 pitcher, but he is the last part of this trio that rivals any other trio of pitching in the minors. Paxton saw action at both Clinton and Jackson this season, forming a dominating duet with Walker to start the season and finishing the season demolishing the Southern AA league. I personally got to witness his 13 SO performance against the Carolina Mudcats and came away thoroughly impressed. While he does have some issues with his control he has shown some really good stuff and I think Al Skorupa of Bullpen Banter says it well:

I was not as big a fan of James Paxton when he was drafted, though I thought it was a great pick in the fourth round. I was turned off by Paxton's lack of a third pitch, some injury issues, his age and his velocity dipping in independent ball. Well... I was wrong! Paxton has some very good stuff for a lefty. His hard, bowling ball FB is impossible for hitters to elevate or do anything with. The CB is a plus pitch as well. Sadly for Paxton, this is one of a very few systems where he wouldn't have the best CB in the org! He's cleaned up his game all around and his CU has improved, leaving me with very little reservations about projecting as a good 2/3 starter.

The last of the Big 5 is Nick Franklin. Entering the season he had built up a ton of hype after demolishing in Low-A ball as a first year player. Due to unfortunate circumstances and some struggles to start the season he has slid a little bit in some rankings, but for the most part he is still viewed as a future SS with a good bat. Some still question how much power he projects to have but as a switch hitter, who was performing well in a short AA stint before a blow to the head and mono knocked him out, who is still only 20 and likely to start the season in AA or possibly AAA, he still profiles as a top SS prospect and one easily within the top 100 prospects in the game. Like Hultzen, he also played in the AFL this summer and while his numbers fluctuated throughout he did do this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19981415&c_id=mlb

Frankie Piliere said this regarding Franklin and the AFL:

Certain players look like they were made to play the game. Franklin is one of those players. While his physical skills are impressive, his feel for the game stands out significantly compared to more crude young players. Franklin has a wiry, athletic frame and looks to be the type of athlete who could thrive anywhere on the field. But, he clearly has the tools to be an everyday big league shortstop. He shows enough pure arm strength to make the plays deep in the hole and his range grades out as plus as well.

Franklin has struggled in AFL action, but it does not take away from the hitter he figures to be in the big leagues. He looked more comfortable from the right side in the fall league, showing off impressive pull power. But, his swing looks just as compact and effortless from the left side. In time, he looks like he'll be an impressive gap hitter from each side, with potential 15-20 home run pop

Another player that you will see pushing for Top 100 prospect considerations is Vincent Catricala. The knock on him is not the bat, but rather where does he fit on defense. Most reports have him not staying at third and potentially not even being able to handle a spot in LF. If he is forced to a spot at 1B or DH then it is highly unlikely that his bat is enough to play at that position daily. As much as I hate to say it as I am a big fan of the bat, I am starting to see him as a Carp-light, as he may not be able to handle LF to the extent that Carp does.

Francisco Martinez is an actual 3B in the system that, unlike Cat, should actually stay there. If the name is familiar it is because he was one of the pieces acquired in the Fister trade and in my mind could end up being the best piece in the deal over the long term. Rushed by the Tigers, Martinez is still raw in many areas, but his bat made good strides last year and although his stats in some areas thus far haven't shown the promise that scouts see him building to recently, he still looks like a player who could be above average in many ways in the majors someday. Perfect Game wrote him up in this way:

Martinez's set of tools provide plenty of reason for optimism in the long term, though he has yet to put together an overly impressive season as a professional. His 33 game stint with AA Jackson was encouraging, as he hit .310/.326/.481 and has begun to realize some of his power potential. His 10 Home Runs at AA in 2011 were double his previous career total, and his power numbers are beginning to catch up to his tools. But for him to be an asset to the Mariners he will have to continue to develop his power to at least average MLB levels, which he projects to do. But the slow development to this point is a minor concern. His contact skills make up for his lack of plate discipline, which was quite solid in his native Venezuela, but has leveled out since moving up to higher levels of pro ball. His above average speed has translated poorly into stolen base success, going 10-for-20 in 2011 and is 54-for-80 in his career. His defensive tools suggest he should be a quality defender at 3B, which makes the high error rates all the more puzzling. While the stat sheet doesn't suggest Martinez's future is very bright, scouts believe that there is a lot of upside. While he has a ways to go, Martinez has a chance to become an impact player at the Major League level. Whether or not he will reach that potential is very much up in the air.

A counter part of Martinez in the Fister trade is someone who we have some familiarity with already in the majors as Chance Ruffin profiles to be a good reliever who is ready now and while he may not be a closer now, it is not out of the question that someday he develops into one.

The next name I want to mention is Alex Liddi. Seemingly he has been around forever but is only 23. Reports have indicated that his glove is getting better and it is not as much a foregone conclusion that he will move off 3rd as it was a year or two ago. His bat still profiles with a lot of power but not the best average. I believe I may have come around some in the recent months and while I still don't think he will be any kind of above average player, it is possible to me now that he provides something on the level of average in the Major Leagues, although he still has quite a few improvements to make before reaching that point.

A couple young International guys who have been in the system a year now are Phillips Castillo and Martin Peguero (Estelion). Both had mixed results in their debuts but both show promise. Castillo has a very high ceiling bat, which is good because he most likely will be a LF, and if he makes strides in plate discipline outside of the Arizona Rookie League, John Sickles thinks he could make enough strides that he could potentially be the best bat in the Mariner system after next year. Peguero, meanwhile was much more erratic then Castillo, and hasn't lived up to his bonus yet, but is just 17 and has a lot of time to do that.

One of the most recent international signings, Victor Sanchez, has not pitched for any Mariner team yet, but was considered probably the best International Free Agent in the class this year. As usual scouting reports on these players can be a little more vague, but luckily Sanchez has been on the scene for a good while, evicting this write-up from BA:

Sanchez, a 16-year-old from Caracas, is an interesting prospect as a right fielder as well, due to his above-average arm and raw power, though he doesn't make enough contact for teams to take him off the mound. Sanchez isn't tall (6-foot, 185 pounds), but he has a body like a bull, with a strong, thick frame with sloped shoulders and large hands. His fastball ranges from 89-92 mph and touches 94. He has a loose arm and does it fairly easily. His athleticism helps him repeat his delivery and throw strikes with his fastball to both sides of the plate. Sanchez also throws a plus slider and has shown feel for a changeup, and he'll mix in an occasional curveball. While Sanchez likely has the most present talent in this year's pitching crop, scouts wonder how much projection he has left. His body is relatively filled out and his fastball won't gain much more velocity. Sanchez doesn't miss as many bats as scouts would expect, as his fastball can get straight. Sanchez is represented by Carlos Gavidia, who represented Cardona last year. Many scouts believe Sanchez is the better prospect, though he isn't expected to match Cardona's $2.8 million bonus.

Going back a ways, unfortunately I cannot find the tweet, there was a tweet at the time of the signing from him (through someone else) that the Mariners saw him as a quick mover, to the tune of possibility of seeing the majors within 4 years. If the Mariners do see him highly then I see no reason not to be bullish on him.

Another player that I find myself bullish about is one Guillermo Pimentel. Pimentel, like Castillo, could rocket up charts if he makes any strides in plate discipline this next year. After showing off monster power this year he has proven that the power is not the question, but the 73 SO in 265 AB's is. Personally, I like him as an 18 year old prospect but at this point there is as good of a chance he completely busts as he becomes a regular.

To touch on a few more from this last draft Carter Capps is one of my favorite draftees this year and will definitely get a chance to start I would hope although he could be fast tracked to the bullpen. Capps had a great showing on the Cape this year, although mostly appearing out of the bullpen. Playing college ball at Mount Olive University in NC, I got a chance to see him a few times this year and think he has a chance to develop as a starter and a good one at that. If not he could be a dominant reliever. Brad Miller, the 2nd round pick, is one of those Ackley/Seager types who absolutely destroyed college pitching, and one that I am very interested in watching as he could stay at SS long term and at worst could be a quality utility man, but could end up a quality regular. Tyler Marlette is the last prospect I will touch on in depth at all but a player that fell due to perceived bonus demands this last year is a guy worth a follow through the system. Athletic for a catcher, boasting a strong are and good power potential out of high school Marlette, along with Capps were the two steals of this draft. Signing him was somewhat of a surprise to me actually. PG had this to say before the draft:

Tyler Marlette is a 2011 C/3B with a 5-11 200 lb. frame from Oviedo, FL who attends Hagerty HS. Strong loose mature build. Outstanding defensive tools, extremely strong arm, stays low, flexible lower half, quick actions, on line throws with plus accuracy. Right handed hitter, open bent knee stance, quick hands, pretty short to the ball, looking to pull and lift, shows present power and nice extension out front, ball comes off hard. Top level talent, potential high draft pick. Good student, signed with U. Central Florida.

With all this typed out I feel obliged to rank my top 15 or 20 here for kicks and giggles. To add to the appeal I will add faces. You guys seem to like faces. I like faces too. So now for some faces:

1 - Danny Hultzen - LHP - Gets the nod over Taijuan because of proximity to the big team

via seattlesportscentral.com

2 - Taijuan Walker - RHP - Love his potential.

via thegoldensombrero.com

3 - Jesus Montero - C/? - Yes, I placed him 3rd. Yes, I did it. Not because of his bat. Oh no, I love the bat. Just that little question mark up near the position worries me.

via rotochamp.com

4 - Nick Franklin - SS - Rating him ahead of Paxton, but just barely. I think he has the potential to be a top 25 prospect after this season.

via www.minorleaguebaseball.com

5 - James Paxton - LHP - Could feasibly see Seattle at some point this year. Getting him and Walker in the same draft was amazing.

via web.minorleaguebaseball.com

6 - Francisco Martinez - 3B - While he has more to figure out then Catricala, he has a more set position.

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

7 - Vincent Catricala - 3B/LF/1B - That is a lot of positions.... But the bat is real.

via www.minorleaguebaseball.com

8 - Chance Ruffin - RP - Could be a stalwart in our bullpen for a long time.

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

9 - Phillips Castillo - OF - Really think he could challenge Franklin for the #2 spot next year.

via cdn.c.photoshelter.com

10 - Victor Sanchez - RHP - Really bullish on him, can't wait to see him pitch.

via cdn.c.photoshelter.com

11 - Alex Liddi - 3B - If he sticks at 3B and can play adequate defense he could be useful in the following years

via web.worldbaseballclassic.com

12 - Carter Capps - RHP - I think he can stay in the rotation, also could be dominate out of bullpen

via assets.matchbin.com

13 - Guillermo Pimentel - OF - Praying he shows some more discipline because if he does he has one of the highest potentials of any one in the minor leagues.

via www.minorleaguebaseball.com

14 - Brad Miller - SS - Probably a little low but could end up showing up like Seager has the past couple years.

via orangeandbruise.files.wordpress.com

15 - Martin Peguero - SS - Would love to see more out of him this year. Another guy who could jump a lot.

via cdn.c.photoshelter.com

16 - Tyler Marlette - The highest of the trio of the catchers we picked this year, I am really interested in following his path.

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

Also of some significance, with the addition of Montero, Sickles rated the farm system #4 today. Surprised me due to the way the Mariners push young players into the majors sometimes. I would expect us to sit around 7-13 most years with a lot of young talent spread throughout the entire organization.

Now I said I was looking at the organization, so I would be remiss if I let it go without taking a look at some talent that could potentially end up in Seattle next year, so quickly I will introduce to my current favorite for us to take with the #3 pick next year in the draft. His name is Byron Buxton and here is an article detailing some of his skills:

http://rise.espn.go.com/baseball/articles/2011/09/14-Byron-Buxton.aspx

The first connection I made with Buxton is of Starling of last year who was picked fifth overall by the Royals. Doing some more research this is how I broke it down on the 5 tool scouting scale:

- Speed - Buxton > Starling - Buxton is rated by many as a 70+ runner and even though Starling is very fast himself, he does not match Buxton. Also looked at some football film to help with this.

- Arm - Buxton = Starling - For both players these are already top notch tools. Both HS Quarterbacks, Buxton hits 94 off the mound as well.

- Glove - Starling > Buxton - Starling, while not quite as fast, seems to instinctively take better routes than Buxton, but both have the range to be great in CF

- Hitting - Buxton > Starling - Buxton's swing is more consistent at this point in time and he does a good job letting the ball get deep due to his quick swing which allows him to recognize pitches pretty well. Both still are working on plate discipline although Buxton is ahead at this point

- Power - Buxton > Starling - Both are well built and have great bodies for muscle. Both put on shows at Wrigley. Both look poised to potentially hit 30 HR's a year. Yet both play CF, and will stay there. Really impressive, just giving Buxton the slight edge here.

- Overall - It is extremely close but I am leaning Buxton slightly over Starling on this one.

Also here is his face:

via cdn.bleacherreport.net

Thanks for reading, would love to hear your thoughts.

"All men commend patience, although few are willing to practice it." - Thomas Fuller

So during this winter storm, I got a couple of books on Amazon, one being The Extra 2%. I'm pretty sure most people here know what that book is about, so I won't bore everyone by going into the details.

What I thought while reading it is that there are things in the book that I think apply to the Mariners. And perhaps brings up certain subjects that I normally would dismiss, but now I might have to take a look at again.

Continue reading this post »

I have been reading Lookout Landing for a little while now, say two years now. The site has been good to me, but I will admit when I first started, I only read this site maybe once a week. But, as time went on, so did my love for this site. It has been a guilty pleasure the last six months, as I find myself checking for updates before work, after work, during breaks, at school between classes, and everywhere in between. It went from a small niche to something I found myself looking at at least 5 times a day hoping for something new. ( I should warn you, this FanPost has no rumors, or any insightful crunching of data)

Continue reading this post »

Thanks for everybody's input last month on Spring Training tips. I am hitting the following games:

3/7~ Seattle/Reds in Peoria

3/8~ KC/Cubs in Surprise

3/9~ Indians/Pujols in Goodyear

3/10~ Seattle/D-backs in Peoria

Despite being advised to take the cheapie seats at each venue... with the price difference being just a few bucks, I took the available box seats (upper level) in Peoria on the 10th. What the heck makes those as good as the premium seats just behind home plate?

Also, any other tips of things to hit around Surprise and Goodyear for those who have been?

There has been a lot of talk since the team acquired Jesus Montero as to what this means for the catching situation. The team believes that Montero can catch and plan on working with him in order to maximize his potential value to the team. The big question is what does this mean for the remaining catchers on the team. I decided to take a look at how the Minnesota Twins have dealt with this similar situation over the last few years to attempt to find the answer to the question:

Just how many catchers do the Mariners need on the 25 man roster?

Other than 2011, in which Mauer was hurt for an extensive period of time, the Twins have had to juggle an all star hitter in the demanding catcher position. So let’s look at how the Twins kept his bat in the lineup as often as they could while not overworking him as a catcher from 2008-2010.

2008

Mauer started 135 games as a catcher and only 4 as a DH (this was honestly shocking to me), his back up Mike Redmond started the remaining 28 games (this adds up to 163 because of a one game playoff verses the White Sox). The only other catcher used that season was Ryan Jorgenson, who didn’t start any games and only caught 3 innings.

2009

Mauer started 105 games at catcher and 28 as the DH. This season saw Redmond start 39 games and Jose Morales start 19 (Again a 163 game season due to a playoff game with the Tigers). Morales was never a very permanent addition to the roster, he started the season in AAA Rochester, was called up on May 15 and sent down 6 days later on the 21st then recalled again on June 13 this time lasting a little over a month, he was sent back down on July 15. His final recall was on August 29, just in time for September roster expansion. Morales’ first 6 day call up lines up with a time when Mauer and Redmond were both nursing injuries, however the June call up does not so it would seem the team decided they needed a third catcher on the roster for that time.

2010

Mauer started 107 games at catcher and 22 as the DH. Drew Butera took over as the primary backup, starting 44 games with Morales starting 4 games and Wilson Ramos starting 7. Again the Twins used primarily a two catcher roster configuration. Ramos was on the major league roster for 10 days between May 2 and 12. Mauer hurt his heel on the first and missed 6 games. Morales came up from AAA on July 26 and left on August 15, reappearing once more on September 1. Mauer was again nursing minor injuries in late July which explains Morales’ recall.

2009 and ‘10 seem like a realistic expectation for what the Mariners could be looking at for next season. It doesn’t seem that outlandish to expect 100 games out of a starter, 40 out of Montero and the remaining 22 to come from a third catcher. The third catcher however would need to qualify under one of two conditions, have an option left in order to shuttle back and forth as Morales did for the Twins or have the positional flexibility to play positions other than catcher. It is unrealistic to think the Mariners can carry a catching only player for the whole season and only expect him in 22 games so if this is the route I see 5 options in front of them.

1. Olivo is the starter, Montero backs him up, Jaso shuttles back and forth as needed

2. Olivo is the starter, Montero backs him up, Jaso stays in AAA, Chris Gimenez is a third catcher and backup corner outfielder

3. Jaso is the starter, Montero backs him up, Adam Moore shuttles back and forth as needed and Olivo is cut/traded

4. Jaso is the starter, Montero backs him up, Chris Gimenez is a third catcher and backup corner outfielder, Olivo is cut/traded

5. Olivo and Jaso form a catching platoon, Montero is the primary DH and only catches in emergencies

Unless the team really plans on easing Montero into catching and only having him behind the plate 20 or so times then option 5 doesn’t really work from a development standpoint as this way they are taking plate appearances that could go to Casper Wells or Mike Carp and giving them to Olivo.

Any scenario where Olivo, Jaso and Montero are all on the team for an extended period of time just doesn’t work without giving up an incredible amount of flexibility on the rest of the field. Personally I think option 4 works the best for this team, the Twins made it work without an emergency third catcher as often because for 100 something games there was a back up catcher on the bench. In the Mariners situation this would be flipped, if Jaso is starting then Montero is DHing. So for 100 something games there would be NO catcher on the bench. If Jaso needs a mid game replacement then Montero would have to switch positions and a new DH would have to come off the bench. This puts more pressure on Montero’s catching abilities. I guess what I’m saying is that Olivo is expendable since he isn’t here for the long term.

Plus, well, Olivo is bad and I don’t know why I wrote such a big piece in order to say “the team should ditch the bad player”.

Matthew recently wrote "…I don't think a fan effort to have the team spend more money on payroll would accomplish anything." I can almost envision a groupon where if X fans agree to buy Y tickets, then management will increase payroll by Z amount.

Fans could buy the tickets and would not be locked in until Y tickets were sold. If, for whatever reason, payroll was not raised to Z amount, then their tickets could be refunded. This would be a way for fans to actively increase payroll if they truly want that. I could imagine management could set up terms such that XY>Z so that they could make a profit.

It has been stated many times that a losing team's problem is cyclical. The team goes young and loses. The fanbase decreases because many do not like seeing bad baseball. Therefore, even with obtaining cheaper pieces the GM cannot add pieces through free agency because the budget was slashed as revenue decreased. This would seem to be a way to increase payroll without risk -- especially if you spread out the games available.

You'll have to excuse me if anything I say in this introduction sounds off, but I have written this out of order. First, I wanted to do the research and get to the heart of the research, and then I wanted to write an introduction. I wanted the answer before I could give a reason as to why I was even asking the question. If you end up reading this whole fanpost, you'll understand why my fingers and my mind are a little tired right now.

And it all started with a stupid, stupid rumor.

Like all rumors these days, it had to do with Prince Fielder. At this point, I want to be done with it. I probably even told myself, "I'm f@#$ing done with you Prince and Scott Boras and rumors..." but that doesn't mean I can help myself when I hear about a new rumor. I can't help but speculate and wonder and take it with a grain of reality. This particular rumor had to do with Prince and the Rangers.

What the hell?

I was mad (I've since calmed down, not that I was steaming mad or anything, but more like "Oh, commmee onnn..." as if things couldn't get any worse in terms of how our divisional opponents are doing this off-season) and frustrated. I still am frustrated, because it's been a long time that I've been frustrated with baseball. Not the game, but the business.

Recently, the owners and players worked out a new deal and while the NBA and the NFL had well-publicized negotiations, the MLB was like "We cool?" and the players were like "Yeah, we cool." and they worked out a couple of things and they were done with it. That's great news, because the strike in 1994 and the cancellation of the World Series was a terrible mark on the history of the game that in ways it is still recovering from.

They'll never be able to undo 1994. They'll never be able to say "Sorry" to the city of Montreal and make up for prematurely ending a season in which the Expos were the best team (at the time) in the National League. The only thing they could do was to make sure it never happened again.

So, this news was no-news and there would be no work stoppage. I mean, if I'm being 100% honest, I don't know much about the new deals because they were such a non-story. That's great.

What's not great? The incredibly flawed system that keeps teams in the cellars for decades. CBA stands for Collective Bargaining Agreement, but I want to know when we are going to get a Competitive Balance Agreement. It's not just the Seattle Mariners, Washington Nationals, or Kansas City Royals that find themselves in a bad position year-in-year-out, but any system that somehow sets up a team for repetitive failure is clearly flawed.

Now, I'm not putting this entirely on baseball. The Royals, Mariners, Pirates... these are teams that have flaws or have had in-house flaws for years that keep them from improving as well. It's just so hard to correct those flaws and it can take years to do so. Correcting Bill Bavasi is taking the Mariners forever because of how long it takes to rebuild a team, when you consider things like: guaranteed contracts, the lack of a salary cap, and the ability of an owner to hand out a blank check.

Every professional sport has it's business flaws, but how long is it going to take for us to realize that the NFL is the closest to being right? Maybe that's my biased opinion, but turning a franchise around seems to be a lot easier to do in football than it is in baseball.

There are a lot of reasons for that. Some of them could never be changed with a CBA, such as how long it takes for a baseball player to be good compared to how long it takes a football player... football players peak sooner and decline sooner. Because of non-guaranteed contracts, you're only responsible for bonuses, guaranteed money, and salary while you decide to employ them.

In baseball, once you're in, you're in. There are few ways for a team to get out of a contract, and so the players benefit no matter how they perform. We've seen this negatively effect Prince Fielder during the off-season as well, so why hasn't there been a bigger push for a change? Well... somebody is going to give Fielder a guaranteed contract of nine figures eventually... I really hope it's not the Texas Rangers, honestly. (Okay, that could reap some benefits to Seattle, but not in the next 3-4 years, in my opinion.)

What follows is my research into the lack of a competitive balance or the inability for certain teams to climb out of the cellar.

I looked at the franchise history of all 30 teams and found out a few things:

-How many seasons have they been a franchise?

-How many times have they been to the playoffs?

-How many World Series have they been to/won?

-How often do they go to the playoffs?

What I found was pretty interesting to me. I saw some facts that really shocked me, while others just hammered home my initial feelings.

I'm a bit of a wanna-be baseball historian. I once bought a book that was the complete, chronological history of baseball that went from the beginning of the National League to about 2003 (I wanna say?) It might be this book, but I'll have to check the publisher when I get home. I read it from cover-to-cover, and it honestly is about complete a history as you're going to get, giving you year-by-year information on the records, the players, the seasons, and the World Series. I liked it so much that I once asked for a newer edition of the book for Christmas, even though it only included like three extra seasons.

So, when I do research like what you'll find below.. when I decide to write 5000 words on a subject that is really just regurgitation of easily-found facts and figures, I do it for myself. But I want to share it with you, just in case someone else is as crazy as I am. I'm trying to make a one-stop shop of these numbers and figures as they stand today.

If you find any factual errors, please just let me know and I'll fix that right up. It's not only possible that I made a mistake, it absolutely had to have happened once or twice...

Without further ado... here is a lot of information.

Continue reading this post »

The new year has begun.

Calenders have been flipped over. Resolutions have already been broken. Some places have all sorts of portable eats. One can watch the old tv adaptation AND the new movie version of Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, both of which have much to recommend. That football stuff is still going on, I hear. There is a royal visit of some kind in Texas of all places. Some sort of baseball trade went down.

oh, and ...

WHITE CHRISTMAS :SNOW (via TheVinnyVan)