FanPost

Should a Zack Cozart Trade Still Happen?

As Connor/Kenner (depending on how you know him) outlined about a week ago, Ketel Marte was bad last year. I won't go into too much detail about that here, as everything you need to know is covered in his piece, but Marte, after bursting onto the scene in 2015, and setting himself up as the shortstop of the future for the Mariners, limped along (sometimes figuratively, sometimes literally) in 2016 to a 66 wRC+ and -0.7 fWAR. While he is still young enough to figure things out and be a starting shortstop in the future, I think most of us can agree that the position needs to be addressed in some way this offseason.

The Mariners agreed with that during last season, it would seem, as there were multiple reports stating the team had interest in Reds shortstop Zack Cozart back in July, with some even saying a trade was very close, but wasn't finalized prior to the deadline. Bob Dutton of the News Tribune recently reported that the Mariners remain interested, but they "don't need" one, and believe that the situation with Marte is different than it was with Zunino and that they can roll with him again. I strongly, strongly disagree, and think a team that seriously wants to win cannot enter the season counting on Ketel Marte, but I don't make those decisions.

Regardless, a lot has changed since the trade deadline. The most obvious is that it is now the offseason, meaning Cozart would now only be here for a single season; and, dynamics are simply different in the offseason than they are at the deadline. But Cozart, too, has changed, and that has to be considered.

So that's what I want to take a crack at exploring. Considering all of the pertinent factors -- the length of his contract, the likely return, Cozart as a player, and the other options for the position -- should the Mariners still make a strong effort to acquire Zack Cozart?

We'll start with the likely return. Obviously, I don't have any inside information as to what Cozart would cost now. What I do have are the reports that the return at the deadline was, apparently, Luiz Gohara, a 20 year old left handed pitcher who broke out last season to the tune of a 2.61 FIP in his 10 A-ball starts after a couple disappointing seasons to begin his career.

Gohara for a year and two months of Cozart, while maybe a bit much for some, likely would have been tolerable at the time considering the Mariners were trying to sneak into the playoffs, and Marte was holding them. For just a single year? It's more questionable. In a vacuum, two more months may not seem like that big of a deal, but it's essentially the difference between two playoff pushes versus just one.

One would imagine that the price has gone down (because of the above, and because of Cozart himself, as I will discuss later on), but I have no way of knowing what that would be. If the Reds still demand Gohara, or someone of that level, I don't know if I would pull the trigger. I know this team is right there and their window is closing, but is Gohara worth one year of a 1-2 WAR shortstop? That's the big question, as is always the case when considering a trade.

Now let's take a look at Cozart as a player. What would the Mariners be acquiring?

First and foremost, Zack Cozart is an elite defensive player, at one of the more important spots on the field. Last year, his UZR/150 was 14.6. That's more or less in line with his career mark of 11.6, as well as his career +54 DRS, if you prefer that. He also tends to be at least an average baserunner (+5.1 BsR career), so those two things give him a nice cushion to fall back on if his offense doesn't show up.

And that's one of the concerns with Cozart. As an elite defensive shortstop he doesn't need to be a great, or even good, hitter, but he does need to hold his own. He's done that over the last two years -- 105 wRC+ and 91 wRC+ respectively -- and that's when he was able to take the next step as a player (or would have, if not for injuries, which I will get to in a bit). That makes him the 17th best hitting shortstop over the last two seasons, and while that doesn't sound like much, with the kind of defense he provides it is more than enough.

Before that, though, he ranged from just barely good enough to "oh my god why is he in the major leagues," at least offensively. He bottomed out at a 56 wRC+ in 2014, by far the worst of any full time shortstop that year. But, he still managed 1.2 WAR on the season, because of his defense. Part of his break out is due to him suddenly developing some pretty damn good power, to the tune of a .181 ISO since 2015, 5th best among shortstops. He isn't much of an on base guy, so he isn't an ideal choice for the leadoff role the Mariners may need to fill, but you can't have it all. I'm sure there is room for a deeper look at to what changed for Cozart, but I won't do that here.

That said, even if he only manages to be somewhere between New Cozart and Old Cozart -- say an 85 wRC+ or so -- he would still figure to be a ~2 win player over a full season.

The full season part could be an issue, though. Perhaps the biggest issue. While his two most recent seasons brought an offensive breakout, it also came with some serious injury concerns. He managed just 53 games in 2015 after tearing up his right knee in June, forcing him to miss the rest of the season. Last year was better, as he played 121 games, but he ran into more knee troubles toward the end of the season, and appeared just 8 times in September.

We can't necessarily know that it is the same exact issue reappearing, but nagging knee injuries can't be ignored. What's worse is that his production also cratered as the year wore on, with his wRC+ dropping to 61 in the second half compared to 106 in the first half. That means there is evidence that the injury didn't just keep him off the field, it also impacted his ability to perform.

But another crucial point to all this is the alternatives. According to Dutton's source, the Mariners think Marte is fine (they are probably wrong, but whatever), but I think even they would agree, if an upgrade can be found, they should pull the trigger. So what are the other options?

The free agent market for shortstops is barren, as is the case for the market as a whole. The only players who would conceivably be upgrades are Andres Blanco, Stephen Drew and Erick Aybar.

Blanco is the best of the bunch offensively, but has been more of a third baseman and doesn't even grade out well there. Drew used to be good, and then was horrible, and then managed to play 70 games of solid baseball last year for the Nationals. But he has played more second base than shortstop lately, and probably still isn't very good. Aybar is the biggest name of the trio, and used to be quite good, but was worth -1.2 WAR last year and just 0.9 WAR before that, so that's a no go.

Suffice it to say, any shortstop upgrade will likely be coming via trade, whether that be Cozart or someone else. There simply isn't anyone worth in on the market, unless someone gets cut or non-tendered or something that I'm not thinking about. MAYBE you find another Shawn O'Malley type, and they could split time while Marte hangs out in Triple-A, but again, that's not a situation a contending team wants to find themselves in.

I won't speculate on other trade targets for the position, because I really have no idea. The only reason I felt comfortable writing this was because of how many rumors we have had regarding Cozart, including those saying the trade was almost complete.

This was longer than I wanted it to be, but in short, Cozart should absolutely be a target for the Mariners this winter, particularly if they are serious about contending, and by all accounts, they are. He's an injury risk, he's only under contract for one more year, and there's always a chance that his offense will erode again. But despite all that, he has shown the ability to maintain a floor of 1 WAR or more every year, even when he couldn't hit a lick, or when he missed two-thirds of the season.

Obviously it comes down to cost, and a year of a league average shortstop with some not-insignificant risks shouldn't cost all that much, and if it does, Jerry should probably walk away. I won't pretend to know what a fair cost would be, but for me, it should be less than Luiz Gohara, perhaps significantly so. If that's the case, it is my opinion that Jerry should pull the trigger.