The Hall of Fame recently announced that they are decreasing the number of eligible years on the ballot from 15 to 10. What this means is that all current players on the ballot (Edgar included) lose 5 additional years to garners support to be elected. This is a big deal for Martinez, who has 5 more years. He garnered about 25% on the last ballot. So he needs to garner a 50% increase in support over the next 5 years (10% increase per year). I do not see this as likely, for the following reasons.
1. There are still dumb HOF voters who use the ballot as personal posterior wipe and will vote in people who don't deserve it at all, hold out players because they for whatever reason don't think they are worth it, or most heinously, send back empty ballots (I honestly think if you return a blank ballot, you need to write a letter explaining why this is, or get your membership revoked).
2. The competition is stiff in the next few years, here are notable players appearing on the upcoming ballots.
- 2015 - Randy Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Gary Sheffield
- 2016 - Griffey
- 2017 - Pudge Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Vlad
- 2018 - Chipper Jones, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel
- 2019 - Mariano Rivera
- Biggio
- Piazza
- Raines
- Clemens/Bonds (not getting in but have more votes at this time)
- Shilling
I hope and pray Edgar gets higher visibility over the next few years (maybe Johnson and Griffey can say something at their inductions), but given the recent track records of voting, taking away 5 years of chances hurts dramatically.