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Why has no one mentioned Edgar's chances of reaching the hall are pretty far fetched now?

The Hall of Fame recently announced that they are decreasing the number of eligible years on the ballot from 15 to 10. What this means is that all current players on the ballot (Edgar included) lose 5 additional years to garners support to be elected. This is a big deal for Martinez, who has 5 more years. He garnered about 25% on the last ballot. So he needs to garner a 50% increase in support over the next 5 years (10% increase per year). I do not see this as likely, for the following reasons.

1. There are still dumb HOF voters who use the ballot as personal posterior wipe and will vote in people who don't deserve it at all, hold out players because they for whatever reason don't think they are worth it, or most heinously, send back empty ballots (I honestly think if you return a blank ballot, you need to write a letter explaining why this is, or get your membership revoked).

2. The competition is stiff in the next few years, here are notable players appearing on the upcoming ballots.

Not to mention there are a few players left on the ballot from last year that had higher percentage of votes
  • Biggio
  • Piazza
  • Raines
  • Clemens/Bonds (not getting in but have more votes at this time)
  • Shilling
So it looks pretty packed over the next 5 years
I hope and pray Edgar gets higher visibility over the next few years (maybe Johnson and Griffey can say something at their inductions), but given the recent track records of voting, taking away 5 years of chances hurts dramatically.