FanPost

Felix Hernandez: WAR and Wins

That Felix Hernandez has been plagued by a lack of run support isn't exactly breaking news. It has been well established that Felix = Good and that the Mariners’ Offense = Bad/Nonexistent.

Recently, in an ESPN article Dan Symborski wrote that Felix, even before his current streak, had already lost 11 wins as a result of the Mariners’ no-good run stealing offense. Furthermore, Zips projected Felix to finish his career with 241 wins and gave him only an 18 percent chance of reaching 300.

Curious as to just how bad the Mariners’ bats have been to Felix (hint: it’s bad), I went on to FanGraphs and did some very bare analysis on the King and the quest for 300 wins.

The stat I used was Wins / WAR. This is a stupid, made-up stat that doesn't offer a whole lot of analysis (like those stats found on ESPN). But it does give at least a little glimpse into the relationship between a pitcher’s value (WAR) and what his team has done with that value (Wins).

In any case, using FanGraphs I compiled a list of pitchers with at least 40 wins after 1950. There were 711 names. Not counting Phil Ortega, the only pitcher to reach 40 wins with a negative WAR, Felix came in 707th place.

So yeah, even on a broader scale, it does appear that Felix has been shafted by the M’s offense.

Other interesting takeaways from the list:

-The three pitchers with lower Wins to WAR than Felix: Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling and Roger Clemens. At least he is in good company, though the three names right above him weren't exactly legends in Josh Johnson, Bob Veale and Jon Matlack.

-The average Wins to War from pitchers with more than 250 wins in that time period: 3.624192.

-Felix’s current Wins to War: 2.602151

-The WAR it would take a pitcher with a ratio of 3.624192 to reach 300 wins: 82.78

-The WAR it would take a pitcher with a ratio of 2.602151 to reach 300 wins: 115.29

-The number of pitchers in the last 75 years with a WAR over 115: 1 (Roger Clemens)

-My confidence level in the M’s offense to get Felix to 300: About as high as Logan Morrison’s Batting Average (.201)