May the fourth be with you indeed, after a 4-1 sojourn through the first two legs of a three city tour, the Mariners are 14-15 on the season and statistically relevant in May.
This tweet came across my stream and made me think, the Mariners might be statistically relevant in May. Now looking back last year on May 4th, the M's were 15-17, a definite improvement from the 11-17 they were in 2012. So what makes this year's version statistically relevant, after all they are only a few games improved from last years pace?
First up in the 14 wins the M's have scored 91 runs, in the 15 wins last year they scored a paltry 73, in the 11 wins from 2012 they scored 65. 91 runs is a significant improvement- even given the fact that for 25 or so of the 29 games our lead-off hitter has been, shall we say "somewhat lacking". This year despite the injuries our starters have been pretty decent, our entire staff ranks 4th in the AL in ERA. This shows most decidedly in the run differential; on May 4th this year we have a run differential of -2, last year -17, 2012 we were at -16.
There ya go, why despite an 8 game losing streak are the Mariners flirting with statistical relevance? They are scoring almost as many runs as they are giving up. Now if the offensive genesis continues with the revelation of CF/RF/Lead-Off hitter extraordinaire Michael Saunders, we'll see that differential creep into the positives. if McClendon realized Medina is not quite ready for the high-high leverage situations, again creeping into the positive run differential. There are a lot of what-ifs with this team, but the reality is at the start of May the previous two years the season was already spiraling out of control.
Ok so M's do your part sweep the A's in a 4 game stretch keep scoring runs and as Paxton and Walker return hopefully in June giving us that rotation of Felix, Kuma, Paxton, Walker, then Elias let's try to be relevant every month this season.