FanPost

Jack Zduriencik's Draft Record

In Logan's recent Jack Z extension article, commenter DarkKnight put forth the idea that Zduriencik isn't really as strong of a drafter as his reputation indicates. He compared Zduriencik's drafts as Director of Scouting with Milwaukee to Woody Woodward's Mariner drafts in the 90s. Conclusion: Woodward, who was not considered a strong drafter, had drafted players that put up significantly more WAR than Zduriencik's draftees. Take a look at DarkKnight's subsequent research.

I went to baseball-reference and put every team's Draft WAR from 1990-2009 into Excel. I'm not using the 1990-98 years here, but since I gathered the data I included here for your perusal.


1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1999-2008 1990-2009
Angels 44.5 15.5 6.3 5.6 5.7 61.5 3.3 51.7 3.4 32.3 63.6 16.6 34.7 10.7 40.6 30.6 4.4 6.4 2.9 22.4 242.8 462.7
Astros 31.7 12.5 37 28.1 26.5 -1.7 65.2 64.2 28.9 1.3 24.7 0.1 3.8 10.4 56.1 2.8 5 -1.3 4.3 1.2 107.2 400.8
Athletics 12.5 12.5 54.9 16.9 69.6 18.3 42.9 59.7 36.2 44.2 16.6 36.4 69.8 17.9 28.8 14.9 24.2 2.1 1.7 1.1 256.6 581.2
Blue Jays 10 66.2 45.7 32.9 2.1 101.5 63.6 98.4 13.8 45.4 2 6.5 1.9 43.5 15.2 9.7 0.2 9.2 -2.4 5.3 131.2 570.7
Braves 101.5 29.1 29.4 53 13 -0.3 51 1.3 9.2 5.3 64.6 7.8 30.2 14.3 0.8 34 8.2 41.7 11.3 3.6 218.2 509
Brewers -1.8 80.1 36 25.3 23.1 29.2 1.4 1.9 9.4 23.5 16.7 20.6 52.5 21.1 25.6 49 -1 8.3 11.2 2.7 227.5 434.8
Cardinals 4.3 12.9 1.2 8.6 62.4 33.1 8 38.7 65.7 125.1 27.4 38.6 3.5 54.5 -2.2 14.3 25.6 0.7 4.6 14.3 292.1 541.3
Cubs -0.5 63.2 -3.4 9.1 5.9 47.3 15.5 37.6 21.4 -0.9 17.1 52.4 11.1 35.9 7.6 0.2 4.6 15.2 5.8 2.6 149 347.7
Rays





16.2 13.1 29.2 74.8 48.1 13.8 47.7 15.1 7.8 21.9 50.4 21.6 0 0 301.2 359.7
Diamondbacks




36 6.3 10.8 24.2 65.7 74.3 6.3 11.7 23.3 22.3 21.3 9.9 10.4 10.2 269.4 332.7
Dodgers -0.1 3 0.2 42.6 73.8 24.9 31.5 57.4 7.5 29.6 2.8 12 50.6 44 27.7 2.8 41.8 0 0.6 0 211.9 452.7
Giants 6.6 -0.1 18.7 30.4 77.7 51.1 -0.9 14.2 4.1 3.3 0.1 11.4 44.8 29.4 1.5 5.9 19.7 9.6 21.5 8.5 147.2 357.5
Indians 16.8 108.2 11.6 36.1 22.6 13.4 10.9 0.6 57.7 -0.9 22.9 12.5 22.3 12.9 4.2 33.3 5.9 -0.7 1 9.7 113.4 401
Mariners 56 66.3 33.9 117.5 48.4 44.2 64.1 11.4 15 37.2 6 3.1 8.4 23.6 5.8 3.6 26.6 1.8 -1.5 13.9 114.6 585.3
Marlins

18.6 10.7 -2.4 29.4 20.8 47.7 12.5 50.7 50.5 2.5 34.7 0.8 10.3 3.3 -2.4 17.4 0 0.8 167.8 305.9
Mets 71.2 23 38.1 6.7 29.2 48.8 1.9 48.8 4.6 12.1 -1.3 55 22.5 5.1 2.8 9.5 14.3 2.2 4.3 0 126.5 398.8
Nats/Expos 39.8 67.7 18.3 4.6 47.5 7.3 37.8 4.9 11.4 21.5 127 -0.6 0.8 7.5 11.3 47.6 -0.2 16.5 12.1 10 243.5 492.8
Orioles 95.7 7.5 14.8 3.1 22.9 19.3 12.1 44.1 46.9 54.9 1.6 18.6 0.6 31.7 19.8 4.7 1.6 12.8 0.8 0 147.1 413.5
Padres 16.1 18.2 90 64.3 50.1 -1 -0.1 -1.3 11.9 36.2 11 22.4 10.3 4.8 4.4 33.9 19.2 4.9 13 0.1 160.1 408.4
Phillies 22.2 28.7 27.8 71.1 -5.8 8 46.7 70 48 45.8 59.8 32.5 35.6 34.2 4.1 1.5 0.9 -1.3 8.4 4.5 221.5 542.7
Pirates 10.9 18 41.3 2.4 0.5 21.1 39.3 8.6 9 9.5 70.2 52.9 11.6 20.1 11.3 25.3 4.9 2.7 8.2 -1 216.7 366.8
Rangers 22.7 41.2 59 0.3 12.1 31.2 72.2 0.7 58.5 52.1 21.5 62.2 -1.6 62.3 2.1 2.4 25.3 11.3 7.7 1.3 245.3 544.5
Red Sox 0.8 40.4 1.8 38.2 58.6 19.9 32.9 17.4 62.2 8.2 21.4 41.2 44.2 33 39.3 48.6 31 6.4 2.1 -0.5 275.4 547.1
Reds 18.1 5 1.2 2.4 12.9 31.4 -1.5 7.2 44.4 7.9 -0.6 25.7 42.2 2.1 6.3 28.8 12.7 9 1 7.6 135.1 263.8
Rockies

27 22.8 -2.9 62.9 19 42.1 74.7 16 22.4 5 32.3 11.7 27.3 31.3 1.6 17 -0.5 11 164.1 420.7
Royals -1.3 54.4 86.1 17.8 17 72.3 13.5 11.2 1 42.4 21.2 -0.6 32.9 9.7 19.2 22.1 8.4 14 3.9 6.8 173.2 452
Tigers 12.6 14.8 44.5 45.7 16 46.1 2.1 -2.5 40.8 20.5 3.2 12.9 40.9 -1.8 37.8 32.6 1.4 8.7 12 0.6 168.2 388.9
Twins 40.5 81.2 14.1 87.2 70.7 22.9 19 35.3 16.3 26.9 17.2 57.1 42.9 15.2 9.2 27 -2 4.3 0.5 2.6 198.3 588.1
White Sox 89.2 54.9 32 49.1 22 15 27.1 12.1 89.6 17.3 8.4 13.2 14.2 6.8 14.1 2.9 4.7 2.7 12.9 0 97.2 488.2
Yankees 131.9 1.9 79.8 -4.9 2.6 47.7 37.5 6.3 18.4 -2.6 2.7 1.3 1.9 17.8 16.6 51.3 29.5 0.4 3.3 0.2 122.2 443.6























Average 32.8 35.6 30.9 29.6 27.9 32.3 26.3 27 28.8 28.8 27.2 23.6 25.1 20.2 15.4 20.6 12.9 8.5 5.4 4.7 187.6 463.4

Here's the Draft WAR for Zduriencik with the Brewers from 1999-2008 compared to the 30-team average along with the first several draft positions that he had to work with.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total
Picks 10, 61, 91, 124 11, 81, 111, 141 12, 56, 88, 118, 148 7, 48, 79, 109, 139 2, 39, 69, 99, 129 5, 46, 76, 106, 136 5, 85, 115, 145 16, 60, 92, 122 7, 101, 131 16, 32, 35, 53, 54, 62, 94, 124
Brewers 23.5 16.7 20.6 52.5 21.1 25.6 49 -1 8.3 11.2 227.5
Average 28.8 27.2 23.6 25.1 20.2 15.4 20.6 12.9 8.5 5.4 187.6

Overall his results were three great (2002, 2005, 2008), two above average (2003, 2004), four below average (1999, 2000, 2001, 2007), and one terrible (2006) year(s) and overall he was about 3 WAR above average per year.

But just looking at the draft pick positions, you expect Zduriencik to have a lot of not great years based on a middle-to-low 1st round pick and his next pick 50+ picks later. So how are we going to measure him against teams that had stronger draft positions?

A few commenters thought that taking out the first round would give a better indication of draft skill. That could yield a more accurate result since after the 1st round all the consensus future stars has been drafted and now each team's true scouting ability should come out. I don't thinking dismissing a team's first round entirely is fair, but this is an attempt to even out the teams' positional strengths. So using the arbitrary endpoint of the 1st round (which does not include the supplemental picks usually starting around 35) here is a new table of non-first round draft WAR.

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 1999-2008 1990-2009
Angels 44.5 14.6 6.3 -4.8 6 29.1 3.3 13.7 4 32.3 65.1 9 24.5 14.5 8.1 30.6 3 6.4 2.9 3 196.4 316.1
Astros 31.7 13 21.1 0 20.9 -2.5 65.6 12.1 20.7 1.3 24.7 1.3 3.8 10.4 56.1 1.3 5 -1.3 -1.4 1.2 101.2 285
Athletics 12.7 6.9 54.9 13.7 61.2 15 5.6 58.5 16.2 10.9 16.6 25.3 38.1 17.9 28.7 6.7 24.2 2.1 0.9 1.5 171.4 417.6
Blue Jays -1.2 32.1 21.3 -1.6 3.7 36.8 58 68.7 6.3 18.4 2 1.8 1.9 18 15.4 -0.1 -1.6 5.4 -2.4 5 58.8 287.9
Braves 16.4 28.7 31 53 13 0.2 51 1.3 9.2 5.3 37.7 8 22.9 12.2 0.8 31.9 8.2 24.7 11.3 0.2 163 367
Brewers -1.8 80.1 36 16.5 23.9 7.5 1.4 1.7 9.4 0.1 16.5 20.6 29.7 8.6 24.5 13.5 -0.5 9.2 1 2.7 123.2 300.6
Cardinals -1 -1.5 -0.5 7.2 62.4 12.6 -0.8 17.8 20.9 125.1 27.4 38.6 3.5 45.9 -1.4 3.4 24 0.1 4.7 10.6 271.3 399
Cubs -0.2 52.4 -3.5 6.9 5.9 19.6 15.5 15.3 11.8 -0.9 18.3 35.9 11.1 35.9 7.6 0.2 3.5 16.4 3.8 2.4 131.8 257.9
Rays 16.2 13.7 29.2 49.4 37.9 16.8 33.7 13.9 3.7 21.9 15.3 3.9 0 0 196.5 255.6
Diamondbacks 37 -2.8 10.8 24.2 65.7 73.6 3.4 -1.6 8 5.9 4.2 3.3 10.4 7.9 197.1 250
Dodgers -0.1 3 0.2 34.7 45.1 24.9 31.8 57.4 9 29.6 3.5 12 40.3 26.9 24.4 2.8 9.1 -0.2 1 0 149.4 355.4
Giants 6.7 -0.1 16.6 30.6 77.9 51.9 -0.9 9.5 4.8 3.6 0.6 -1.5 12.9 27.2 1.5 5.9 -3 -2 4.5 7.6 49.7 254.3
Indians 17.5 39.1 4.6 36.1 17.9 13.4 10.9 2.9 2.6 -0.9 22.9 12.5 4.4 12.8 2.6 32.8 5.9 -0.7 -1.2 10.1 91.1 246.2
Mariners 57.6 55.2 30 1.6 24.1 24.7 47 11.4 3 37.2 6 3.1 6.9 23.6 5.8 4.8 18.9 1.6 -1.1 5.4 106.8 366.8
Marlins -3.9 11.7 -2.4 29.4 -1 47.7 12.5 16.9 17.4 2.5 32 0.8 9.6 1.1 -2.2 15 0.1 0.8 93.2 188
Mets 51.6 23 31.8 6.7 21.9 48.8 1.9 48.8 2.3 12.1 -0.6 53.2 5.2 4.7 1.9 4.1 14.3 2.2 -1 0 96.1 332.9
Nats/Expos 9.7 41.9 18.3 4.6 47.3 4.6 32.7 4.9 11.4 21.5 128.5 -0.6 0.8 0 8.8 15.1 0.8 14 9.2 1.1 198.1 374.6
Orioles 12.7 7.5 6.1 0 22.9 19.3 12.1 17.5 46.9 52.5 1.6 14.3 0.1 7.6 19.8 4.8 1.6 0 -1.2 0 101.1 246.1
Padres 16.4 3.6 90 30.2 38.7 -4 -0.1 -1.4 6.5 36.2 11 22.4 1.9 1 4.4 34.6 19.4 4.9 13.3 0.1 149.1 329.1
Phillies 7 29.2 27.8 70.8 -4.1 8.5 41.4 25.2 29.4 31.4 2.2 17.6 1.4 34.2 4.6 1.5 1.1 -1.2 8.4 4.5 101.2 340.9
Pirates 13.4 18 -0.2 2.4 0.5 24.7 26.3 9.9 9 9.5 64.1 56.4 11.8 7.3 2 -0.4 4.3 2.5 4.9 -0.9 162.4 265.5
Rangers 22.7 38.2 38.4 0.3 12.1 32.1 55.9 0.7 32.9 52.1 21.5 14.6 -1.3 41 2.4 0.9 25.3 9.8 6.1 1.3 172.4 407
Red Sox 0.8 19.8 1.8 17 14.4 19.9 32.9 17.4 49.6 8.2 23.2 41.2 44.2 22.4 39.3 29.7 26.7 6.4 2.7 -0.5 244 417.1
Reds 5.1 -1.3 2.1 2.4 13.7 31.4 -1.5 8.1 31.5 7.9 -0.6 24.1 42.2 2.4 0.6 13.9 5.6 9.8 -1.7 0.1 104.2 195.8
Rockies 27.5 13.2 -2.9 1.8 5.1 42.1 74.7 4.6 22.4 5 22.3 8 29.8 -0.6 2.9 17 -0.6 11 110.8 283.3
Royals -1.3 54.9 78.9 18.7 17 72.3 16.4 11.2 1.7 38.1 21.2 -0.6 -2.5 8.2 5.7 0.3 6.6 9.2 -0.3 3.9 85.9 359.6
Tigers 0.1 14.8 44.6 45.7 16 46.1 2.1 -2 25.4 22 3.2 12.9 41.7 -1.8 -0.7 24.7 4.1 2.8 11.7 -1.2 120.6 312.2
Twins 34.2 83.2 14.8 12.8 60.2 13.4 11.9 20.7 16.3 26.9 18.3 13 24.3 15.2 1.4 12.5 -3.5 0.3 -0.1 3.4 108.3 379.2
White Sox 60.3 57.4 32 49.1 18 17.8 23.9 13 81.3 17.3 9.9 13.2 15.1 7 15.2 2.6 4.7 2.3 6.6 0 93.9 446.7
Yankees 111.5 1.9 7.8 -4.9 2.1 47.7 20.9 6.4 18.4 -2.6 2.7 1.1 1.9 17.8 9.9 51.3 20.3 0.3 2.7 0.2 105.4 317.4
Average 20.3 27.5 22. 17 22.8 23.1 20.8 18.4 20.3 23 23 18.2 15.9 14.7 11.4 11.9 8.3 5.5 3.2 2.7 135.1 330.6

Just Zduriencik.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total
Picks 61, 91, 124 81, 111, 141 56, 88, 118, 148 48, 79, 109, 139 39, 69, 99, 129 46, 76, 106, 136 85, 115, 145 60, 92, 122 101, 131 32, 35, 53, 54, 62, 94, 124
Brewers 0.1 16.5 20.6 29.7 8.6 24.5 13.5 -0.5 9.2 1 123.2
Average 23 23 18.2 15.9 14.7 11.4 11.9 8.3 5.5 3.2 134.9

So Zduriencik's not-first round results were two great (2002, 2004), three above average (2001, 2005, 2007), three below average (2000, 2003, 2008) and two terrible (1999, 2006) years(s).

Pretty incredible that he is above average in 2005 with his 2nd pick at #85. But we still run into the issue of uneven draft positions. Taking a look at 1999 and 2006, they were terrible drafts for him, but when you see his 2nd picks were at 60/61 your expectations for his draft should have been lower to begin with. So Z's drafting ability is still in question.

Now looking further into Zduriencik's draft positions:

In 2009, Sky Andrecheck at baseballanalysts.com gathered the data for the average career WAR for each draft pick which gave him this graph and equation. The line of best fit is not ideal in a few spots in the graph, but overall it looks pretty acceptable to me.

Using Andrecheck's equation, I assigned a value to the first 150 draft picks. Then I went though each team and gave them the assigned value for each pick they had up to #150 in a given year. So here is another table comparing Zduriencik's total WAR compared to his predicted WAR for his picks up to #150. Obviously his total WAR gives him credit for picks past 150 as well, but since his picks are probably still playing we'll just ignore that difference for now. Since the average of the first 150 picks divided by 30 teams is 15.2, I'm estimating (but not factoring into the following table and graphs) based on the early 90's team WARs that we should be adding about 15 WAR to each team's predicted WAR for all picks after #150.

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Picks 10, 61, 91, 124 11, 81, 111, 141 12, 56, 88, 118, 148 7, 48, 79, 109, 139 2, 39, 69, 99, 129 5, 46, 76, 106, 136 5, 85, 115, 145 16, 60, 92, 122 7, 101, 131 16, 32, 35, 53, 54, 62, 94, 124
Brewers Total WAR 23.5 16.7 20.6 52.5 21.1 25.6 49 -1 8.3 11.2
Predicted WAR 12.67204397 11.71671826 13.92262877 16.14516457 23.28815927 17.66637769 14.49310074 11.36306948 11.18380423 23.54607637

Other than 2006, it looks like Z's drafts are already exceeding his predicted WAR (to 150) or well on their way towards passing it up.

Now the finale, what I believe is a pretty accurate comparison of Zduriencik's drafting ability to other teams during his tenure with the Brewers. As a graph this time, for the sake of comparison. The graphs are a result of the process for the table just above as well ∆WAR: Total WAR - Predicted WAR. So each team that is above 0 exceeds their predicted WAR and each team below 0 failed to meet their predicted WAR. I made 3 graphs since having all 30 teams on one was too cluttered.

Picture7_zpsa86fec8d_medium

Picture8_zps972973ed_medium

Picture9_zps0d51d4f4_medium

It looks like the Brewers were at the very top in 2002 and 2005. They were at the bottom in 2006 and in the bottom half in 2000/2001. All other years they were in the top half.

And since those graphs aren't as easy to compare teams by as I was hoping they would be, here is another table with the teams ranked.

Rank ∆WAR 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total
3 Angels 26.19878964 44.33616414 -2.696781627 20.59969615 -1.496005333 31.36584584 18.69509733 -3.243860929 0.349844912 -4.884323614 129.2244665
21 Astros -11.14358333 14.70318193 -14.4678809 -5.943428011 2.286321533 49.80469344 -12.52186195 -5.280808065 -4.846793635 -13.61897111 -1.029130096
7 Athletics 31.20536076 8.532580066 19.21805302 37.36867901 0.238659951 5.429709843 -1.524200953 18.01259716 -15.26603457 -10.48083078 92.73457349
24 Blue Jays 34.82318611 -17.22609425 -5.065682431 -11.67373646 29.43335656 -3.632454924 -3.995448568 -8.51592026 -16.62915304 -13.47150083 -15.9534481
12 Braves -0.404439907 40.1867963 -11.74865616 13.9424519 -3.780262879 -5.249935352 18.94875485 -13.29679842 24.74519758 -0.429611446 62.91349647
11 Brewers 10.82795603 4.983281742 6.67737123 36.35483543 -2.188159273 7.933622312 34.50689926 -12.36306948 -2.883804234 -12.34607637 71.50285665
1 Cardinals 107.6383094 9.455351969 28.87269012 -0.183860929 44.499861 -14.80985146 -7.165362112 8.041485061 -15.33577989 -10.48637964 150.5264635
23 Cubs -10.60078024 -3.336251447 29.64728265 -16.12358915 21.83143942 1.378035244 -12.25034805 -2.513611145 -2.856770458 -8.0308792 -2.855472372
9 Rays 46.61596247 38.31884786 -6.323246331 24.72610157 -14.06327815 -10.97431161 6.692781762 30.27675367 -4.45829072 -28.44842186 82.36289866
4 Diamondbacks 8.393987337 59.58309244 63.89122297 -3.644882133 -2.741163982 9.929643271 -11.80488239 1.543113085 -8.020517501 -2.447023552 114.6825895
10 Dodgers 20.07746833 -10.21114938 5.882322434 33.29705594 33.54760773 7.548366573 -9.025894697 23.35863248 -13.21008446 -10.85759848 80.40672646
16 Giants -12.30384892 -10.63144843 -5.550608839 34.63543718 12.78008662 -4.583127525 4.176631206 4.416113335 -13.85165647 3.739939521 12.82751768
28 Indians -6.807469658 6.870004364 -9.018905556 0.704779069 -9.983550538 -12.63362881 16.26608861 -10.90905243 -7.883160105 -8.529582513 -41.92447756
22 Mariners 21.97054941 2.522956493 -11.39450139 -1.442063052 12.08688134 1.961529768 -11.34992183 9.169805745 -12.83839248 -12.08809695 -1.401252948
20 Marlins 28.36741415 21.55782416 -3.913069479 20.29259056 -12.56145801 0.338194214 -24.41620346 -18.62650328 5.792034569 -16.45270219 0.378121235
19 Mets 4.001246172 -15.80829072 38.79948176 13.92407486 -4.19167779 -17.57021011 -0.537142227 7.965090928 -11.82819768 -14.1265787 0.627796499
8 Nats/Expos 5.282858856 112.2224689 -17.20250645 -16.83636575 -5.136358605 -2.55076768 34.19556009 -18.35360926 -6.470155083 -1.092614274 84.05851077
26 Orioles 25.16993679 -14.99183709 -2.674031923 -18.1438075 15.27762866 6.996058697 -10.02301623 -16.73831749 2.201878015 -17.57718636 -30.50269443
27 Padres 8.272875697 -4.232155598 8.997109114 -3.524242214 -14.24217584 -21.41731331 17.42766579 1.957644154 -20.65710054 -5.040401491 -32.45809424
5 Phillies 33.80491358 49.04939043 19.03873865 22.66198922 28.56172845 -6.592217212 -4.72323904 -13.24524374 -15.04762939 -9.705896366 103.8025346
13 Pirates -3.934998042 57.54389 40.23484585 -17.24045075 4.225331253 -3.134738041 12.87673096 -13.63285248 -13.35129401 -14.39071205 49.19575269
6 Rangers 38.20730409 2.081458853 49.79837717 -7.861309767 46.8884515 -16.29562685 -8.294654198 14.02325753 -12.34504398 -4.776600369 101.425614
2 Red Sox -10.54855707 10.80712283 31.96851571 36.01645112 13.50980889 33.04170928 27.38531024 9.141033004 -4.44923099 -12.43744453 134.4347185
25 Reds -3.597851656 -17.37664387 15.01283217 18.73014559 -11.71112079 -9.874232745 16.67116286 -2.710920125 -9.972883076 -12.08119591 -16.91070755
15 Rockies 4.914470124 6.165990778 -4.091575935 15.49148442 -3.311622423 12.1248885 9.314157499 -21.15271735 3.982329559 -10.43603251 13.00137266
29 Royals 15.26674311 2.361325221 -15.55801072 16.09590467 -11.84231771 -4.127393797 -0.419904568 -20.21379555 -6.222679023 -19.36447408 -44.02460245
18 Tigers 3.482094728 -12.49089331 -7.282192332 23.17331997 -22.44531774 14.79456962 20.82743931 -15.20250645 -1.542284762 1.553478161 4.867707184
14 Twins 9.863346485 -12.1238576 28.48620445 32.08055471 2.718443593 -16.33687127 6.847149895 -14.50223085 -3.298748754 -18.54285525 15.1911354
30 White Sox -6.97761197 -5.780581083 -0.938194839 1.444103881 -6.777151435 -10.3916184 -6.014740992 -4.930577227 -6.795938029 0.340406287 -46.82190381
17 Yankees -12.19921394 -7.193142292 -18.09103473 -2.21375188 7.694181666 -0.66439983 40.42731898 18.43503607 -7.035275437 -9.309669092 9.850049514
Avg 13.52888062 11.99597945 8.350272255 9.890272255 4.970272255 0.726938922 5.373064246 -2.303061078 -6.667520456 -9.860661185 36.00443728

There you go, CapSea. Zduriencik ranks 11th. Maybe not as above average as his reputation suggests.

The Cardinals top rank shouldn't be a surprise since they drafted players Pujols and Crisp in late rounds. Their other notable recent late-ish rounders are M. Carpenter and Rosenthal. So they're still pulling out strong drafts. Uh oh, Jeff Luhnow is heading up the Astros!

I am also not surprised by the Rangers and Red Sox high rankings, but I'm shocked that the Angels are #3 (this was not including Trout) considering how bare their farm system is now. They haven't had a successful draft since 2005, so okay. No longer shocked. They had a lot of successful drafts pre-2006, so if players from 2006-2008 haven't had success with them yet, they probably never will and it's unsurprising that they don't have upper minors players ready to make a big impact.

In case you don't think adding the weighted picks into the equation affected the team's ranks, here's their ranking by raw total WAR, predicted WAR, and the difference between the two.

Total WAR pWAR ∆WAR
Angels 8 28 3
Astros 29 30 21
Athletics 5 8 7
Blue Jays 24 18 24
Braves 11 13 12
Brewers 9 11 11
Cardinals 2 21 1
Cubs 20 16 23
Rays 1 1 9
Diamondbacks 4 14 4
Dodgers 13 24 10
Giants 21 23 16
Indians 28 12 28
Mariners 27 27 22
Marlins 17 7 20
Mets 25 25 19
Nats/Expos 7 10 8
Orioles 22 5 26
Padres 19 3 27
Phillies 10 26 5
Pirates 12 6 13
Rangers 6 20 6
Red Sox 3 22 2
Reds 23 15 25
Rockies 18 17 15
Royals 15 2 29
Tigers 16 9 18
Twins 14 4 14
White Sox 30 19 30
Yankees 26 29 17

So the Rays had the strongest draft positions and the highest total WAR. Their ∆WAR at #9 looks low just looking at their other rankings, but it still means they exceeded their predicted WAR and are above average drafters. Meanwhile the Royals had the second strongest draft positioning, but their total WAR only ranked 15th resulting in the 29th ∆WAR rank meaning their drafts were terrible.

Zduriencik had the 11th strongest positioning and the 9th highest total WAR, but his ∆WAR at 11th means his drafts were only slightly above average.

Bonus:

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Picks 2, 27, 33, 51, 82, 113, 143 43, 67, 99, 132 2, 62, 82, 121, 123 3, 64, 98, 126, 131 12, 49, 85, 117, 147
pWAR 29.73544891 9.151770359 22.28716688 19.4004956 14.15553775

Zduriencik's 1st draft with the Mariners is the most strongly positioned of any draft he's ever had and his Walker! Pryor! draft was supposed to be a down (20 WAR) year.

Non-Mariners Bonus:

Danny Goodwin is the only player to be drafted 1st overall twice. 1971 by the White Sox, then four years of college later by the Angels in 1975. Parts of seven seasons with three different teams and his career was over, having accumulated -1.7 bWAR.

Any recommendations on how to make this information look better/be more informative or suggestions for continued research is most welcome.

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