FanPost

Gambler's Fallacy and Regression to the Mean

So...I had this question in one of the game threads and I'd really like to hear what more the LL hive mind can tell me. I know that someone being “due” i.e. player “x” is “due” to hit a home-run because blah, blah, blah is more of a gambler’s fallacy than anything else. My question is, how is that any different than “regression to the mean?”

Is it because “regression to the mean” is based off of a player’s actual true talent ability (bad luck just preventing them from performing as they actually do)? Maybe I’m thinking to hard about this, but how is:

“x” is “due” to hit a homerun

any different than:

“y’s” babip has been around .192, so pretty soon he’ll “regress” to the mean and more hits will start falling in.

Wouldn’t that be gambler’s fallacy also – or is it just a smarter sounding way of saying “x/y” is due for some hits?

Like I said, I’m probably thinking to hard about this. Looking forward to your responses! Thanks!



X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker