So I actually began the research that inspired this article because I was thinking more about Justin Smoak. I’ve been a fan of old Smoakie since he was acquired in the well-remembered Cliff Lee deal, and now that he is actually succeeding I find my thoughts dwelling on his future more often.
And I don’t mean some kind of fantasy-future in which he and I are best buds who host poker nights together and take our wives out on double-dates every Friday night. That’s just weird. Who would do that? Although, I suppose it could be fun. Being from South Carolina, I bet Justin is a pretty mean BBQer. I love a good BBQ. I wonder if he would be impressed if I mentioned I made the Little League All-Star Team as a pitcher during my sixth grade season. I’m guessing he would. Perhaps I could get close enough to the field at next Monday’s game to invite him out for dinner sometime. Who could turn that down? It would be my treat! Oh, I’m so excited! This will be such a great time! I’ve always dreamed about having a true best friend! J-Smalls and the Smoak-Man. I could make t-shirts!
Anyways, I was basically just remembering what a big stanky mess Smoak was at the plate last year and mentally remarking about what a vast improvement this season has been for him. And then I wondered…could his be the most dramatic 2012-2013 turnaround in all of Major League Baseball? Short answer - no. You can stop reading now if that's all you were wondering.
I know many of you would prefer to use wOBA or wRC+, but I’m much more comfortable with OPS+ and I think it does a fine job of describing offensive performance over even somewhat small sample sizes. You may beg and beg to differ, but it won’t matter, this article will have already been written by the time you are groveling and differing and there’s just no point to it. I’m going to use OPS+. And arbitrary though it may seem, I’m going to use a minimum of 200 plate appearances for both the fully completed 2012 season and the 59%-completed 2013 season. It’s my article, and I get to choose.
Let’s look at the Top 25 for OPS+ variance between 2012-2013!
Rk | Name | Age | Tm | 2012 PA | 2013 PA | 2012 OPS+ | 2013 OPS+ | +/- |
1 | Chris Davis | 27 | BAL | 562 | 393 | 122 | 193 | 71 |
2 | Nick Hundley | 29 | SDP | 225 | 225 | 31 | 96 | 65 |
3 | Josh Donaldson | 27 | OAK | 294 | 391 | 90 | 151 | 61 |
4 | Jason Bay | 34 | SEA | 215 | 226 | 48 | 106 | 58 |
5 | Brian McCann | 29 | ATL | 487 | 206 | 87 | 145 | 58 |
6 | James Loney | 29 | TBR | 359 | 356 | 79 | 133 | 54 |
7 | Jason Kipnis | 26 | CLE | 672 | 374 | 102 | 154 | 52 |
8 | Raul Ibanez | 41 | SEA | 425 | 296 | 104 | 149 | 45 |
9 | Justin Smoak | 26 | SEA | 535 | 269 | 87 | 130 | 43 |
10 | Troy Tulowitzki | 28 | COL | 203 | 265 | 113 | 156 | 43 |
11 | Michael Cuddyer | 34 | COL | 394 | 317 | 102 | 144 | 42 |
12 | Domonic Brown | 25 | PHI | 212 | 384 | 90 | 130 | 40 |
13 | Gaby Sanchez | 29 | PIT | 326 | 213 | 70 | 110 | 40 |
14 | Adam Lind | 29 | TOR | 353 | 297 | 96 | 134 | 38 |
15 | Everth Cabrera | 26 | SDP | 449 | 363 | 84 | 121 | 37 |
16 | Miguel Cabrera | 30 | DET | 697 | 428 | 165 | 201 | 36 |
17 | Colby Rasmus | 26 | TOR | 625 | 346 | 85 | 119 | 34 |
18 | Luke Scott | 35 | TBR | 344 | 220 | 100 | 134 | 34 |
19 | Paul Goldschmidt | 25 | ARI | 587 | 406 | 125 | 158 | 33 |
20 | Jhonny Peralta | 31 | DET | 585 | 375 | 85 | 117 | 32 |
21 | Drew Stubbs | 28 | CLE | 544 | 313 | 61 | 93 | 32 |
22 | Carlos Gomez | 27 | MIL | 452 | 362 | 101 | 132 | 31 |
23 | Jacoby Ellsbury | 29 | BOS | 323 | 419 | 83 | 113 | 30 |
24 | Kyle Seager | 25 | SEA | 651 | 407 | 110 | 140 | 30 |
25 | Michael Young | 36 | PHI | 651 | 363 | 80 | 108 | 28 |
Observations:
1) There are four Mariners listed in the Top 25, with three of them ending up among the first nine players listed. Jason Bay has been often overlooked this year, and even though he hasn’t been spectacular during the 2013 season, he at least deserves some recognition from Mariner fans for increasing his OPS+ by 58 points from his disaster season last year. Meanwhile Raul "Ponce de León" Ibanez has improved his OPS+ from 104 to 149, and Dr. Smoak has increased his performance by 43 OPS+ points to 130! By the way, Seager is the youngest player on this Top 25 list – he’s awesome!
2) No other team has more than two players on this list.
3) The first two names couldn’t be much different – Chris Davis has been the story of the 2013 season, while Nick Hundley’s 65 point improvement is based mostly on his wretched 2012.
4) Somehow last year’s AL MVP has managed to make the 16th best offensive improvement in all of baseball this year. Crazy.
And now let’s look at the Bottom 25 for OPS+ variance between 2012-2013.
Rk | Name | Age | Tm | 2012 PA | 2013 PA | 2012 OPS+ | 2013 OPS+ | +/- |
1 | Jeff Keppinger | 33 | CHW | 418 | 303 | 126 | 53 | -73 |
2 | Melky Cabrera | 28 | TOR | 501 | 335 | 157 | 86 | -71 |
3 | Ike Davis | 26 | NYM | 584 | 239 | 111 | 44 | -67 |
4 | Justin Ruggiano | 31 | MIA | 320 | 299 | 144 | 85 | -59 |
5 | Matt Kemp | 28 | LAD | 449 | 246 | 147 | 88 | -59 |
6 | Will Middlebrooks | 24 | BOS | 286 | 216 | 120 | 63 | -57 |
7 | Andy Dirks | 27 | DET | 344 | 303 | 130 | 75 | -55 |
8 | David Murphy | 31 | TEX | 521 | 338 | 126 | 73 | -53 |
9 | B.J. Upton | 28 | ATL | 633 | 318 | 108 | 55 | -53 |
10 | Brandon Moss | 29 | OAK | 296 | 302 | 161 | 114 | -47 |
11 | Paul Konerko | 37 | CHW | 598 | 280 | 129 | 82 | -47 |
12 | Josh Hamilton | 32 | LAA | 636 | 375 | 140 | 94 | -46 |
13 | Chase Headley | 29 | SDP | 699 | 355 | 144 | 98 | -46 |
14 | Alex Avila | 26 | DET | 434 | 230 | 100 | 55 | -45 |
15 | Jonny Gomes | 32 | BOS | 333 | 203 | 141 | 97 | -44 |
16 | Miguel Montero | 29 | ARI | 573 | 352 | 122 | 79 | -43 |
17 | Josh Rutledge | 24 | COL | 291 | 250 | 94 | 51 | -43 |
18 | Yoenis Cespedes | 27 | OAK | 540 | 341 | 138 | 98 | -40 |
19 | Ruben Tejada | 23 | NYM | 501 | 204 | 91 | 51 | -40 |
20 | Elvis Andrus | 24 | TEX | 711 | 412 | 93 | 57 | -36 |
21 | Josh Willingham | 34 | MIN | 615 | 298 | 143 | 107 | -36 |
22 | John Jaso | 29 | OAK | 361 | 233 | 144 | 108 | -36 |
23 | Juan Pierre | 35 | MIA | 439 | 286 | 95 | 61 | -34 |
24 | Giancarlo Stanton | 23 | MIA | 501 | 224 | 158 | 124 | -34 |
25 | Alcides Escobar | 26 | KCR | 648 | 382 | 98 | 66 | -32 |
Observations:
1) There are no Mariners on this part of the list, although Ackley is close with a -28 and Saunders would have been if not for his recent week-long resurgence.
2) Josh Hamilton isn’t at the top! Although J-Ham’s struggles have probably been the most publicized around the League this year, that award goes to a scuffling Jeff Keppinger. Congrats Soxx!
3) It’s a good thing the Mariners didn’t pursue a post-HGH Melk-Man. That sure would have drawn the ire of the fans. Geez.
4) Even though I’m still not a fan of the Jaso-Morse swap, it kind of looks like 2012 might have been a career year for Mr. Hedgehog.
So…I guess there’s no real point to this post, and therefore no great way to conclude it.
No, I need something.
If I had to choose an overriding theme for this post it would be that sometimes the Mariners’ player evaluators make decisions that turn out to be good ones. Hmm…although not getting Hamilton wasn’t really a decision. Oh, and Mike Morse hasn’t really turned out well. Ok, that’s not the theme. The overarching theme that you should take away from this article is that baseball is weird, and sometimes good players improve and sometimes bad players improve and sometimes good players become much worse and then become good again and then sometimes you think bad players are going to get a lot better but then they just get tons worse. That’s the theme. And you can quote me.