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Correlation between spring training and regular season?




I decided to look up and see if there was any correlation between Spring Training HR's and Regular season HR's. In 2006 the Mariners hit 26 HR's in spring training and followed that up with 172 in the regular season which comes out to about 6.6 HR's per spring training HR. In 2007 it was 28 and 153 which comes out to 5.4, 2008 28 and 124 which comes out to 4.4, 2009 47 and 160 which comes out to 3.4, 2010 23 and 101 which comes out to 4.3, 2011 27 and 109 which comes out to 4.0, 2012 28 and 149 which comes out to 5.3.

Sorry for boring you with all those numbers up there but just trying to show what i did. On average for every HR hit in spring training the Mariners would hit 4.77 HR's in the regular season. Now this is a pretty small sample size which i wish i could make bigger but i do not have the stats for spring training before 2006. With that said there are multiple years where it is about 4-4.5 which seems to mean there is at least some correlation. There are some outlying numbers which wit more data would be less significant.

If the Mariners would hit 4.77 HR's this year for every spring training HR then, if they continue hitting on average a little more then 1.5 HR's a game, they would end up with 267 HR's this season. Which would be a crazy amount of HR's to hit in a single season, even for HR built teams in hitter friendly parks. If we took a more conservative figure and went with 4 HR's for every 1 spring training hr then we would end up with 224 HR's which would be an almost 100 HR difference between last year and this year. Even if we took the worst year and used the 3.4 figure we would end up with 190 HR's.

Now i am not saying there is a strong correlation between spring training and regular season with HR's. Although it does seem like there is some correlation and i believe this year we will do a much better job of hitting HR's. I believe these stats at least sort of back that up and hopefully this can continue into the regular season.

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