So since last time i made some errors in my calculations i decided to revisit this to see if there was a correlation between spring training HR's and regular season HR's.
I made a chart with 5 teams, chosen at random, all American League teams to see if i could find some correlation between the regular season and spring training.
I did an average of the difference between spring training HR's per AB and regular season HR's per AB. The closer to zero means the more that they correlate. The Rangers surprisingly, at least to me since they have a good hitters park, have the closest correlation out of the 5 teams with a .04 percent difference in HR's per AB.
Here is all the teams average differences
Mariners: .1 percent
Yankees: negative 1 percent
Tigers: .2 percent
Orioles: negative .6 percent
Rangers: .04 percent
I still feel like i am getting crazy numbers for the Mariners, so i feel as if i am doing something wrong. The only team to hit close to as good as the Mariners are hitting right now in spring training was the Rangers in 2006 which they ended up dropping the average HR per AB by 1.8 percent in the regular season.
Hopefully the chart i made isn't too confusing. Would love some input on my findings since it still has the Mariners hitting over 200 HR's this year.