FanPost

Is Cano worth the contract?

We all know that the Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a 10 year 240 million dollar contract. What many would like to know is how many years is Cano worth the money? Many have said that he will only be worth his contract for 5-6 years giving them 4-5 years worth of dead money. To explain why people believe this I will provide you with projected WAR information for Cano's 10 years. First, I did my own projections based on players in the past and their aging curves.

Year

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

WAR

5.70

5.32

4.94

4.48

4.00

3.49

2.89

1.93

1.49

0.77

If you do not like my projections then we can go off what Dan Szymborski tweeted when Cano signed the contract.

https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/408995774416965632

As we can see, both Dan and my projections are similar although his are more optimistic towards the end of the contract than mine. As we all know, team are paying about 6-7 million per WAR. Taking 24 million and dividing by the respected years WAR, we will find out how much the Mariners are paying/WAR.

Year

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Dan

4.36

4.53

4.80

5.22

6.00

7.27

8.57

10.91

15.00

21.82

Mine

4.21

4.51

4.86

5.35

6.00

6.89

8.31

12.46

16.14

31.06

As we can see, the Mariners will be paying under or at the 6-7 million range for 6 years. The final 4 seasons range from a slight overpay to an extreme overpay.

These numbers are assuming that baseball teams do not invest their money and there is no such thing as time value of money. Time value of money tells us that a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. If we assume the Mariners get a 5 percent interest rate, they would pay 194 million over 10 years rather than 240 million. Here are the present values of 24 million each year at a 5 percent interest rate:

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Total

24

22.86

21.77

20.73

19.74

18.80

17.91

17.06

16.24

15.47

194.59

Now, here is what the Mariners will pay/WAR based on Dan and my projections:

Year

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Dan

4.36

4.31

4.35

4.51

4.94

5.70

6.40

7.75

10.15

14.06

Mine

4.21

4.29

4.41

4.63

4.94

5.39

6.20

8.86

10.92

20.02

This shows that Cano will be worth his contract for 7 years with a slight overpay in years 8 and 9. There will be dead money towards the end of his contract but not as much as people have assumed originally. Is Cano worth the contract? I would say yes.

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