FanPost

Mariners' Farm System revisited

So, about a year later, I have come back from my article "That Extra 2%" to see how the farm system has changed.

Once again, the sheet I created last year can be found here, but to summarize how the classes have progressed:

2009 Draft Class (35 of 52 signed, 17 released/retired, 49% overall/19% Rounds 1-20 attrition rate, 50% in AAA/Majors)

  • Majors - 2 (Still Ackley and Seager)
  • AAA - 6 (1 last year)
  • AA - 3 (9)
  • A+ - 5 (8)
  • A - 1 (3)
  • Released/Retired - 18 (12)

2010 Draft Class (41 of 50 signed, 18 released/retired, 44%/24% attrition rate, ~50% in AA/A+)

  • Majors - 1 (Stephen Pryor, was in AA)
  • AAA - 1 (2)
  • AA - 5 (2)
  • A+ - 5 (6)
  • A - 4 (9)
  • A- - 3 (7)
  • Rk+ - 1 (5)
  • Rk - 2 (4)
  • Released - 18 (5)

2011 Draft Class (40 of 51 signed, 7 released/retired, 44%/5.5% attrition rate, ~50% in A+/A)

  • Majors - 1 (was 0, now Carter Capps)
  • AAA - 2 (was 0, and includes Hultzen who was unknown)
  • A+ - 7 (3)
  • A - 12 (5)
  • A- - 3 (10)
  • Rk+ - 1 (10)
  • Rk - 5 (11)
  • Other - 2 (Nathan Melendres in Australia, Joseph DiRocco injured)
  • Released - 7 (0)

2012 Draft Class (32 of 41 signed, 0 released/retired, 0% attrition rate, ~50% in A-)

  • AA - 1 (Mike Zunino)
  • A+ - 2
  • A - 4
  • A- - 16
  • Rk+ - 2
  • Rk - 7

So, a year later, there we see a lot of attrition in the draft classes 3-4 years ago (2½-3½ years ago chronologically). Only 40% of the draftees who signed remain, though the attrition amongst the picks in the first 20 rounds is much less (8 of 35, or 22.9%).

And now we finally see that the first draft class has finally reached the cusp of the majors, if not in. 8 of the original 35 signed (22.9%) are now in AAA or with the Mariners proper. And remember, we're still trying to figure out Ackley and Seager's potential.

The 2010 class was battered in the last year, losing 25% of the class over the last year, though all but one were from rounds 18 and below. Of course, it makes sense that if you're drafted round 20 or later, your chances are slim. At least they're not 0 though, Brandon Haveman (2009, Rd 29) and Brandon Bantz (2009, Rd 30) are in AA and AAA respectively.

This goes to show how hard it is to build a strong farm system from top to bottom and that that the plan of building through the draft takes much more time than people think and are willing to give in this day and age. But it is also the most cost-effective way to do it.

But as mentioned, people are out of patience it seems, and I wonder how fair that is all things considered. People continue to lump Z's tenure to that of Bavasi and the decade+ of losing. I am still not willing to accept that. Not yet anyways.

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