Holiday Series Preview, Mariners and Red Sox

MARINERS (65-70) Δ Ms RED SOX (62-73) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -113.0 (30th) -4.5 3.9 (13th) Red Sox
FIELDING (RBBIP) 46.0 (2nd) -3.9 17.8 (10th) Mariners
ROTATION (tRA) 11.7 (13th) 1.2 -36.6 (24th) Mariners
BULLPEN (tRA) -4.2 (17th) -0.6 -5.6 (20th) Mariners
OVERALL (RAA) -59.6 (22nd) -8.0 -20.5 (19th) RED SOX
Explainer

The Red Sox are 62-73. The Kansas City Royals are currently 60-73, a single game worse. The Red Sox have a worse record than the Mets. The Red Sox have an equal record to that of the San Diego Padres.

If you were wondering, yes, I am reveling in teams that were supposed to be good that are instead not as good. I don't care what you think. I shouldn't even be here today!

The Mariners did not adequately slow the Angels down as they dropped the series 2-1. They had their chance with Felix Hernandez pitching but they utterly dropped the ball. The base ball. The Mariners scored five runs all series. It's a miracle they even won one game.

Not like a real miracle. Like a Touched By an Angel miracle where every single thing was a blessin' miracle. To the point where if you didn't personally experience three miracles before breakfast it was because you were a consort of Satan. Also, that show lasted nine seasons! That's amazing! What a miracle!

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB K (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
M Saunders* 23 4.3 .350/.435/.950 3 4 (3) 3 / 0 / 0 / 4 43 86 271.2
F Gutierrez 25 3.9 .286/.400/.381 4 4 (4) 4 / 2 / 0 / 0 42 73 60.0
T Robinson^ 49 3.5 .267/.340/.422 4 11 (8) 9 / 1 / 0 / 2 48 78 143.1
K Seager* 56 3.8 .250/.321/.417 6 6 (3) 8 / 2 / 0 / 2 49 90 131.5
E Thames* 42 3.9 .220/.238/.537 1 14 (9) 3 / 2 / 1 / 3 50 68 182.9
D Ackley* 59 3.5 .255/.305/.345 4 7 (5) 11 / 2 / 0 / 1 43 92 82.9
J Montero 47 3.6 .222/.234/.444 1 6 (3) 6 / 1 / 0 / 3 50 84 120.8
J Jaso* 44 3.7 .162/.311/.189 7 3 (2) 5 / 1 / 0 / 0 41 86 71.2
J Smoak^ 52 3.9 .178/.288/.200 7 11 (6) 7 / 1 / 0 / 0 42 81 71.2
B Ryan 40 3.9 .135/.200/.189 3 7 (5) 3 / 2 / 0 / 0 46 83 34.1

P/PA = pitches per PA [avg~3.8], nBB = uBB + HBP, Sw = swinging [avg~45%], Ct = contact [avg~81%], Qual+ = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, higher is better]

Well, at least Justin Smoak is drawing some walks?

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB SO (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
D Pedroia 61 4.2 .345/.429/.552 3 7 (7) 12 / 6 / 0 / 2 43 90 132.0
M Gomez 31 4.3 .308/.419/.462 4 6 (4) 6 / 1 / 0 / 1 46 77 111.1
J Saltalamacchia^ 37 4.2 .273/.324/.545 3 10 (8) 6 / 0 / 0 / 3 47 63 191.5
C Ross 52 4.0 .292/.346/.417 4 9 (7) 10 / 3 / 0 / 1 43 74 107.2
J Loney* 28 3.9 .296/.321/.407 1 4 (4) 7 / 0 / 0 / 1 45 86 155.1
J Ellsbury* 58 3.7 .298/.310/.404 1 4 (2) 13 / 3 / 0 / 1 46 92 88.7
M Aviles 47 3.3 .267/.277/.444 1 4 (3) 8 / 2 / 0 / 2 48 88 70.3
P Ciriaco 59 4.0 .293/.305/.379 1 9 (8) 14 / 2 / 0 / 1 51 84 89.9
S Podsednik* 57 3.7 .309/.333/.327 1 11 (5) 16 / 1 / 0 / 0 39 88 62.7
R Lavarnway 43 4.2 .237/.302/.289 4 12 (10) 7 / 2 / 0 / 0 42 77 54.7
MARINERS Δ Ms RED SOX EDGE
INFIELD 24.5 (4th) -2.8 29.3 (2nd) Red Sox
OUTFIELD 21.5 (7th) -1.1 -11.5 (22nd) Mariners
RBBIP 0.294 (1st) -.002 0.3 (5th) Mariners
OVERALL 46.0 (2nd) -3.9 17.8 (10th) MARINERS
Explainer

It certainly was not the steadiest of series for the infield defense, but what a play by Brendan Ryan to turn that double play on Saturday. Mariner-bias aside, it would thrill me for him to (rightfully) win the Gold Glove, just to show that it is possible despite the low offensive numbers, which should not matter at all.

03 SEP 13:10

JASON VARGAS* CLAY BUCHHOLZ
chart chart

All three Red Sox starts this series are ground ball pitchers. According to the potentially unreliable batted ball stats, the Mariners are one of baseball's least groundball-hitting offenses. What a match up!

Did you know that despite an average line drive rate as a team, the Mariners possess baseball's lowest BABIP? How very unsurprising!

04 SEP 19:10

BLAKE BEAVAN JON LESTER*
chart chart

05 SEP 19:10

KEVIN MILLWOOD AARON COOK
chart chart

Hahaha, the Red Sox are still using Aaron Cook! Please don't strike out against Aaron Cook, Mariners.

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
J Kinney 48 72.4 4 74.7 10 (10) 48.5 0 61.7 0.9
T Wilhelmsen 44 56.1 9 75.0 7 (5) 42.9 1 82.7 2.3
C Capps 42 63.4 5 72.2 11 (10) 34.6 0 111.5 0.7
L Luetge* 38 62.6 5 78.1 5 (3) 35.7 2 150.9 0.6
S Pryor 33 64.5 2 71.0 11 (9) 20.0 3 208.2 1.4
O Perez* 26 65.5 2 76.4 7 (4) 29.4 0 84.8 1.4
C Furbush* 22 58.6 2 76.9 3 (3) 35.3 0 94.0 1.2

Str% = strike rate [avg~63%], Ct% = contact rate [avg~78%], GB% = groundball rate [avg~45%], Qual- = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, lower is better], LI = leverage [avg~1.2]

How come with two outs, one runner on and a greater than one-run lead in the ninth inning, the defenders don't try to throw out would-be base stealers? Why are you indifferent when that runner doesn't matter for the offense? Try to throw him out! If you do, the game is over! If you don't, it doesn't matter. It's a no-lose gamble and yet you shun it.

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
J Tazawa 66 69.0 3 78.5 16 (13) 51.1 1 112.8 0.7
A Aceves 66 65.2 10 84.3 15 (12) 32.5 3 120.9 1.2
M Melancon 53 61.7 3 81.1 11 (7) 51.3 2 155.8 0.6
C Mortensen 41 61.2 4 63.9 9 (9) 46.4 2 150.9 1.0
C Breslow* 37 62.9 4 67.1 10 (7) 52.2 0 59.7 1.1
A Miller* 33 63.0 4 91.1 9 (4) 40.0 0 37.0 0.8
V Padilla 24 62.4 3 87.9 5 (4) 37.5 3 220.9 1.6
A Bailey 23 65.0 2 82.4 5 (4) 31.3 0 22.3 1.5

Series Drink: Mimosa
Argh, it's too early for a series to kick off on a holiday. What are your favorite morning drinks?

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