Mariners to Face Rangers for Final Time in 2012

Joe Nicholson-US PRESSWIRE - Presswire

MARINERS (70-80) Δ Ms RANGERS (89-60) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -119.2 (30th) -1.9 85.1 (3rd) Rangers
FIELDING (RBBIP) 48.7 (3rd) 2.5 16.0 (13th) Mariners
ROTATION (tRA) 6.8 (16th) 1.1 53.1 (3rd) Rangers
BULLPEN (tRA) -2.4 (18th) -3.7 12.8 (8th) Rangers
OVERALL (RAA) -66.1 (22nd) -2.0 166.9 (2nd) RANGERS
Explainer

Until the playoffs that is.

It wouldn't be ideal, wins are ideal, but as a consolation to the Mariners very tough schedule to the end of the season is that they may end up slipping back into the ten spots that have first-round picks protected if they continue to get worked over by playoff-bound teams.

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB K (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
J Jaso* 27 4.6 .348/.444/.565 4 3 (3) 5 / 2 / 0 / 1 45 93 121.1
J Smoak^ 34 3.8 .323/.382/.548 3 4 (2) 7 / 1 / 0 / 2 45 88 178.0
M Saunders* 51 4.2 .267/.353/.533 6 13 (10) 6 / 2 / 2 / 2 47 75 143.5
K Seager* 53 3.4 .321/.333/.547 0 7 (5) 9 / 6 / 0 / 2 49 90 132.8
D Ackley* 52 4.3 .229/.302/.417 4 6 (6) 6 / 3 / 0 / 2 43 87 113.9
F Gutierrez 51 4.4 .224/.255/.327 2 12 (10) 8 / 2 / 0 / 1 46 76 128.0
M Olivo 33 4.4 .133/.242/.333 3 7 (7) 2 / 0 / 0 / 2 53 71 129.6
J Montero 42 3.3 .231/.262/.256 2 5 (5) 8 / 1 / 0 / 0 52 82 63.5
B Ryan 32 3.7 .143/.281/.143 4 9 (9) 4 / 0 / 0 / 0 54 75 56.7
T Robinson^ 22 4.3 .100/.182/.100 2 7 (5) 2 / 0 / 0 / 0 55 63 67.4

P/PA = pitches per PA [avg~3.8], nBB = uBB + HBP, Sw = swinging [avg~45%], Ct = contact [avg~81%], Qual+ = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, higher is better]

Over the past two weeks, Miguel Olivo has more plate appearances than John Jaso, with predictable results. This is mostly the result of a steadfast refusal from Manager Eric Wedge to start Jaso against a left-handed pitcher. His aversion to exposing Jaso to the platoon disadvantage is backed up by Jaso's splits, but not entirely supported given Jaso's such small sample. And it's even smaller with Seattle this year, which makes me wonder how Wedge acquired such a Pavlovian response. Regardless of the why, Jaso needs to be playing more.

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB SO (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
M Young 51 3.7 .375/.462/.500 3 7 (5) 14 / 3 / 0 / 1 50 83 133.9
J Hamilton* 40 4.1 .212/.366/.667 7 11 (11) 0 / 3 / 0 / 4 53 58 252.9
A Beltre 44 3.6 .286/.383/.643 2 10 (10) 7 / 0 / 0 / 5 56 77 209.2
I Kinsler 57 3.8 .226/.281/.415 4 10 (8) 7 / 2 / 1 / 2 44 84 91.6
D Murphy* 53 3.6 .234/.340/.298 6 8 (7) 9 / 1 / 1 / 0 44 81 83.1
G Soto 37 3.5 .182/.270/.364 2 7 (5) 2 / 3 / 0 / 1 47 78 66.8
E Andrus 54 4.1 .196/.278/.333 3 10 (6) 6 / 1 / 3 / 0 36 86 50.5
N Cruz 46 3.4 .227/.277/.295 1 9 (5) 7 / 3 / 0 / 0 56 72 80.4
M Moreland* 38 3.8 .194/.256/.250 2 9 (7) 5 / 2 / 0 / 0 50 72 80.7

It's only 14 plate appearances so far, so he doesn't show up here, but Jurickson Profar has crazy discipline splits. So far he's swung at 90% of pitches located in his strike zone and at only 20% of those that are not. That's crazy! But the sample is only 41 pitches, so it's not like it means anything for the future. It's just funny.

MARINERS Δ Ms RANGERS EDGE
INFIELD 18.3 (6th) 0.2 -1.1 (17th) Mariners
OUTFIELD 30.4 (3rd) 2.3 17.1 (9th) Mariners
RBBIP 0.294 (1st) -- 0.301 (6th) Mariners
OVERALL 48.7 (3rd) 2.5 16.0 (13th) MARINERS
Explainer

21 SEP 19:10

HISASHI IWAKUMA MARTIN PEREZ*
chart chart

22 SEP 18:10

BLAKE BEAVAN MATT HARRISON*
chart chart

I'm not sure how the Mariners are handling starts here at the end, but if they stayed on a five-man rotation and didn't skip anyone with the offday on Monday, then Blake Beavan would start the season's final game, and Felix Hernandez would pitch on Monday the first. Which means Felix's final two starts would both be against the Angels. Which would be fantastic, were he to shut them down both times.

23 SEP 13:10

JASON VARGAS* RYAN DEMPSTER
chart chart

It's funny how lopsided Jason Vargas' home run and BABIP rates are. "He's getting demolished!" screams the high home run rate. "Batters can't square him up!" cries his low BABIP. Haha, get a room, you two!

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
C Capps 60 69.8 3 74.8 17 (15) 45.0 0 102.6 0.4
J Kinney 56 66.7 5 73.6 14 (12) 54.3 2 89.9 1.4
T Wilhelmsen 55 62.4 8 75.0 10 (6) 56.8 0 58.0 2.8
L Luetge* 37 64.6 4 76.2 6 (4) 44.4 1 144.3 1.4
S Pryor 32 62.9 6 81.0 7 (4) 31.6 1 123.5 0.9
O Perez* 31 70.1 2 81.0 3 (3) 23.1 1 107.9 0.8
S Kelley 27 63.2 2 73.1 5 (5) 55.0 0 75.5 1.2

Str% = strike rate [avg~63%], Ct% = contact rate [avg~78%], GB% = groundball rate [avg~45%], Qual- = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, lower is better], LI = leverage [avg~1.2]

Tom Wilhelmsen's control has been spotty of late, but he still misses bats and he's still been avoiding any hard contact, as his low Qual- and his high groundball rate indicates.

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
J Nathan 42 70.5 1 79.1 12 (7) 55.2 2 156.1 1.6
M Adams 41 63.8 4 83.1 7 (4) 53.3 0 46.8 1.7
M Perez* 38 60.4 4 80.3 8 (7) 42.3 2 164.9 0.4
A Ogando 34 69.1 2 69.0 10 (8) 36.4 1 122.8 1.2
M Kirkman* 30 62.4 4 77.6 7 (4) 26.3 2 209.5 1.3
K Uehara 29 75.0 1 66.7 9 (9) 31.6 1 106.8 1.2
T Scheppers 27 61.1 3 79.5 9 (5) 53.3 1 141.3 1.3
M Lowe 22 62.8 3 72.5 0 (0) 26.3 1 166.8 0.7

So I guess the Joe Nathan gamble has paid off for the Rangers?

Series Drink: Russian River Pliny the Elder
It had been awhile since I had the Elder and I forgot how delicious this is. Although it claims to be uber hoppy, I don't really get an overwhelming bitter taste from it. Rather, it's a balanced floral explosion. Actually, side by side, I think I prefer it to the Younger and given the efforts required to acquire a taste of the Younger compared to the Elder, the Elder easily wins out overall.

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