Mariners Showing off the Kids, Felix

MARINERS (70-77) Δ Ms ORIOLES (82-64) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -117.3 (30th) -2.0 -34.7 (22nd) Orioles
FIELDING (RBBIP) 46.2 (3rd) -1.8 -1.4 (19th) Mariners
ROTATION (tRA) 5.7 (17th) -3.0 0.1 (18th) Mariners
BULLPEN (tRA) 1.3 (16th) -1.1 7.6 (12th) Orioles
OVERALL (RAA) -64.1 (22nd) -8.0 -28.4 (20th) ORIOLES
Explainer

The Orioles grade out unimpressive for a playoff team that is vying to win the AL East title. And while they may not deserve their overall record,* it has not been a continuous case of playing over their heads. They were rather run-of-the-mill in April and May with more runs scored than allowed and a winning record. What luck Baltimore had, if you want to call it that, mostly occurred in June and July when the Orioles managed to go 26-27 while being outscored by 59 runs.

* 2012 Orioles: -20 run differential

Since then, they are back to a positive run differential and a big winning record. You can see an example of this by looking back at the previous series against the Orioles at the start of August. At the time, their overall run value was -63, worse than the Mariners. They've gained about 35 runs compared to average in the last six weeks or so, which helps justify them going from +6 in the win column to +18.

Another huge bonus for Baltimore has been their performance in one-run games where they have an obscene 27-8 record.

While looking back at the past previews against the Orioles, I noted that in the first meeting between the two teams, back at the beginning of July, the Mariners had a run value of -56. They've now at -64 so that's two-and-a-half months played more or less around league average.

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB K (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
K Seager* 55 3.7 .333/.382/.588 4 9 (8) 10 / 4 / 0 / 3 42 88 160.7
J Smoak^ 32 4.0 .321/.406/.536 4 4 (3) 7 / 0 / 0 / 2 43 86 195.3
M Saunders* 37 4.2 .303/.378/.576 4 9 (7) 5 / 2 / 2 / 1 48 73 132.3
J Montero 37 3.5 .353/.378/.441 2 5 (4) 11 / 0 / 0 / 1 49 84 146.6
J Jaso* 36 4.4 .286/.444/.321 8 4 (3) 7 / 1 / 0 / 0 41 94 55.0
M Carp* 21 3.5 .316/.381/.316 2 6 (5) 6 / 0 / 0 / 0 47 68 129.0
D Ackley* 53 4.2 .240/.296/.400 3 6 (6) 8 / 2 / 0 / 2 41 87 97.8
F Gutierrez 45 4.4 .238/.289/.333 3 12 (9) 8 / 1 / 0 / 1 43 73 156.8
E Thames* 24 4.3 .227/.292/.318 2 10 (6) 4 / 0 / 1 / 0 55 74 39.1
M Olivo 28 3.7 .179/.214/.286 0 7 (6) 4 / 0 / 0 / 1 58 62 123.8
B Ryan 36 3.7 .125/.250/.125 4 11 (11) 4 / 0 / 0 / 0 51 72 48.8
T Robinson^ 28 3.9 .115/.179/.115 2 7 (4) 3 / 0 / 0 / 0 50 69 84.4

P/PA = pitches per PA [avg~3.8], nBB = uBB + HBP, Sw = swinging [avg~45%], Ct = contact [avg~81%], Qual+ = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, higher is better]

Good for Justin Smoak to at least see some success. I imagine that he's personally had an awful last 18 months or so. No, I don't think there's anything to can do or show in these final two weeks to drastically change the Mariners' opinions for next year. He has changes to his swing that need to be made and cemented and he needs to show those can stick and lead to improved results. Ideally, he shows that in Tacoma to begin 2013.

Still, it's always better to see good performances than bad performances. Which is why I don't ever watch Miguel Olivo at bats.

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB SO (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
M Reynolds 60 4.2 .280/.400/.720 10 19 (14) 6 / 1 / 0 / 7 46 70 258.6
M Wieters^ 49 4.0 .341/.471/.610 8 8 (7) 9 / 2 / 0 / 3 44 81 176.6
C Davis* 50 4.1 .341/.420/.614 6 18 (12) 9 / 3 / 0 / 3 47 66 202.4
A Jones 64 3.5 .305/.359/.525 5 11 (11) 11 / 4 / 0 / 3 56 73 132.8
J Hardy 64 4.0 .279/.359/.492 3 9 (6) 10 / 4 / 0 / 3 40 89 100.5
N McLouth* 61 4.1 .296/.361/.444 6 14 (11) 10 / 5 / 0 / 1 39 82 80.5
N Markakis* 30 3.6 .321/.387/.429 2 2 (1) 6 / 3 / 0 / 0 46 96 93.8
M Machado 58 3.4 .263/.328/.368 1 8 (8) 11 / 3 / 0 / 1 50 79 78.0
R Andino 51 3.6 .152/.216/.326 4 11 (11) 3 / 2 / 0 / 2 39 82 116.4
L Ford 22 4.3 .150/.227/.300 2 3 (3) 2 / 0 / 0 / 1 52 88 77.3

Seven home runs from Mark Reynolds in the last two weeks. That two weeks of output would have Reynolds already ranked ninth on the Mariners in home runs.

MARINERS Δ Ms ORIOLES EDGE
INFIELD 18.1 (5th) -2.7 -5.6 (21st) Mariners
OUTFIELD 28.1 (5th) 0.9 4.2 (15th) Mariners
RBBIP 0.294 (1st) -.001 0.306 (13th) Mariners
OVERALL 46.2 (3rd) -1.8 -1.4 (19th) MARINERS
Explainer

17 SEP 19:10

HECTOR NOESI CHRIS TILLMAN
chart chart

Why it is Hector Noesi, already being decried as a reborn Ian Snell experience, against former Mariner prospect Chris Tillman, traded away in the ill-thought Adam Jones package for Erik Bedard. This match up sure doesn't forebode being depressing at all!

18 SEP 19:10

ERASMO RAMIREZ TBD
chart chart

Similar as with Justin Smoak, I don't think Erasmo Ramirez can do much in final couple of starts to sway what the Mariners think of him. Dissimilar to Justin Smoak, I'd imagine the Mariners think largely positive things about Ramirez. However, he didn't get a lot of innings this year having to start in the bullpen and then missing some time with an injury.

He's done well when on the mound though. Erasmo was an under-the-radar prospect, overshadowed by the Paxton, Hultzen and Walker, but he's shown the control he's long been known for can translate to the Majors without him getting knocked around and that he has a surprisingly (the good kind) amount of stuff as well. I can understand some trepidation from the team given the injury and short number of innings this season, but I hope Erasmo is a feature of next season's starting rotation.

19 SEP 19:10

FELIX HERNANDEZ JOE SAUNDERS*
chart chart

I know Felix Hernandez has had a few rough games of late. And he may not, probably will not, win the Cy Young. Oh well. Remember how he threw a perfect game? Be happy! Try being happy!

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
C Capps 56 68.9 4 73.6 17 (15) 48.6 0 97.7 0.7
J Kinney 53 67.3 5 81.3 11 (9) 54.3 1 59.5 0.9
T Wilhelmsen 52 58.4 10 76.3 8 (4) 52.9 0 49.1 2.8
L Luetge* 31 67.3 2 75.9 6 (4) 47.8 1 140.8 0.8
C Furbush* 26 61.0 2 71.4 5 (5) 26.3 0 95.3 1.3
O Perez* 24 69.9 3 75.5 5 (4) 25.0 0 63.9 1.2
S Pryor 23 61.2 4 72.7 5 (4) 28.6 1 138.3 0.8

Str% = strike rate [avg~63%], Ct% = contact rate [avg~78%], GB% = groundball rate [avg~45%], Qual- = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, lower is better], LI = leverage [avg~1.2]

Carter Capps has come on strong of late. Whatever the team wanted to see from him instead of from Shawn Kelley, I think he's showing it.

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
P Strop 47 59.6 8 66.7 10 (4) 58.6 1 113.2 1.4
L Ayala 43 65.6 2 87.0 9 (6) 56.3 0 71.3 1.1
D O'Day 43 65.0 4 75.6 13 (10) 34.6 2 131.8 1.3
J Johnson 37 64.8 0 84.6 8 (4) 57.1 0 58.1 1.9
S Johnson 36 63.5 4 74.7 11 (9) 23.8 0 62.7 0.4
B Matusz* 30 78.2 0 68.8 13 (11) 35.3 1 104.9 0.7
K Gregg 29 65.8 6 82.5 6 (3) 35.3 2 198.7 0.3
R Wolf* 23 57.8 4 91.4 2 (1) 41.2 0 40.1 1.1

With Pedro Strop, Luis Ayala and Jim Johnson, the Orioles have three relievers dominant at inducing ground balls.

Series Drink: Ayinger Oktober Fest-Marzen
I do not know why it is hyphenated like that. Drink some anyways. Official Oktoberfest begins this Saturday!

In This Article

Teams
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Join Lookout Landing

You must be a member of Lookout Landing to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Lookout Landing. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker