Midseason greetings, LL community. Here are the CONT-SUCK standings at the halfway point of the 2012 campaign.
The corresponding posts for 2011 can be found here and here. Last year's CONT-SUCK victor, Luis Rodriguez, is not likely to defend his title -- a new champion will be crowned in October. (Here, enjoy this one more time: Fond memories of Luis' brightest moment as a Seattle Mariner.)
Anyway. Wipe the tears of joy away and read the explanation below, or skip ahead, whatever, you're the boss.
"CONT" stands for "Biggest Contribution" in Jeff Sullivan's postgame charts. Being the biggest contributor earns you something like a "win" in my system; being the "Biggest Suckfest" earns you a kind of "loss." (In the sad case of no Jeff chart for a particular game, I plugged in numbers from a fangraphs win expectancy chart.)
Note: I tweaked the formula just a little this season -- each player now also has a number listed after their C-S record, and that number is the integer 4 *minus* total accumulated WPA. Heyyy, now everything looks just like regular W-L and ERA. Uncoincidentally. At the end of the season, I'll subtract WPA from 8, and a player's final line from 2012 might look something like this:
Casper Wells 6-3, 3.97
Brandon League 2-9, 8.64
You might be left to conclude that Wells enjoyed the superior 2012 campaign. Feel free to travel down that road, but then I'd respond that my little toy stat here has about as much analytical value as regular W-L and ERA.
To the jump, where actual results reside! (Additional pithy commentary can be found at the post's conclusion.)
John Jaso 5-0, 2.04
Casper Wells 3-0, 3.49
Kyle Seager 10-4, 2.53
Dustin Ackley 3-2, 4.31
Ichiro 4-3, 5.45
Jesus Montero 7-6, 4.36
Miguel Olivo 1-1, 4.16 (all stats are quadruple-checked)
DeChone Figgins 1-1, 4.93
Michael Saunders 3-5, 4.69
Franklin Gutierrez 1-2, 4.11
Brendan Ryan 2-4, 4.16
Mike Carp 1-2, 4.34
Alex Liddi 1-5, 4.48
Justin Smoak 1-7, 5.57
The Munenori Kawasaki 0-1, 4.21
Hitters are 43-43 overall. Not like in 2011, when they had 10 more SUCKs than CONTs at the halfway mark. Progress! Sort of!
Lucas Luetge 1-0, 3.53
Jason Vargas 9-3, 3.52
Felix Hernandez 8-4, 2.61
Kevin Millwood 6-3, 4.70
Tom Wilhelmsen 3-2, 2.20
Shawn Kelley 2-2, 5.00
Erasmo Ramirez 1-2, 4.48
Steve Delabar 1-2, 4.70
Blake Beavan 2-4, 5.17
Hector Noesi 4-8, 6.30
Brandon Asshat League 1-6, 5.63
Stephen Pryor 0-1, 4.09
Hisashi Iwakuma 0-1, 4.26
Pitchers are 38-38 overall. Obvious conclusion: they are just as "good" as the hitters this season.
SUMMARY / TRIVIALITIES
Seager can really catch fire. He grabbed CONTs in games 3, 5 and 8 then again in 71, 74 and 77.
Between game 5 and game 48, the M's played with your emotions. They posted a winning percentage of just .667 in games where their WE reached 80, plus a not-so-sparkling .783 winning percentage when their WE crested 90. If it felt like the Mariners were blowing way too many games early on, that's because they were doing exactly that.
Those of you calling for more Furbush and less League might be on to something.
No idea how Ackley has gathered only two CONTs after posting a .651 OPS and a .291 wOBA over 325 plate appearances. God, those numbers are a bummer.
Figgins hasn't been heard from since game 20; even the game-winning sacrifice fly on Saturday night wasn't enough to earn another CONT. Iwakuma's first and only decision came in game 70; Pryor appeared in six games, including the six-teammate no-hitter, and was rewarded with a SUCK and a pitcher win for his efforts that evening.
Happier topics: Smoak may have seven SUCKs, but the M's are 5-2 in those games. It's abundantly clear that the worse Justin plays, the better it is for the team as a whole. Get off his back.
Jaso and Wells, perfect thus far. In every way. Their moms must be so proud.
Speaking of decent hitters, only three Mariners bats have a positive WPA: the two guys just mentioned, plus Seager. That's it.
Poll time. Thanks for reading, see you again in October.
Which Mariner will win the coveted 2012 CONT-SUCK title, as measured by "winning" percentage? Six decisions will be necessary to qualify; best WPA will serve as the tiebreaker.
Dustin "Jeremy Reed" Ackley (3 votes)
King Felix (25 votes)
Ichiro "Now Where Did I Put My !" Suzuki (1 vote)
John Jaso Jingleheimer Schmidt (50 votes)
Kevin "Worth One B Prospect" Millwood (0 votes)
Jesus "Fredy" Montero (0 votes)
Kyle Seager (16 votes)
Jason Vargas (2 votes)
Casper Wells (4 votes)
Tom "Adios Motherfucker" Wilhelmsen (9 votes)
Other (please specify) (1 vote)
111 total votes