Seattle Mariners Cordially Invite Transplants to Safeco

MARINERS (32-45) Δ Ms RED SOX (40-35) EDGE
HITTING (wOBA) -56.0 (30th) -7.8 30.5 (4th) Red Sox
FIELDING (BABIP) 20.3 (6th) 8.0 8.6 (13th) Mariners
ROTATION (tRA) -4.4 (18th) 2.7 -16.3 (23rd) Mariners
BULLPEN (tRA) -7.7 (26th) 1.0 1.9 (12th) Red Sox
OVERALL (RAA) -47.8 (25th) 3.9 24.6 (10th) RED SOX
Explainer

This is the Mariners first full series against the Red Sox this season. Previously they played a two game set in Boston in which the Mariners lost 1-6 and 0-5. Oh boy!

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB K (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
C Wells 28 3.9 .400/.500/.560 3 7 (7) 8 / 1 / 0 / 1 45 70 133.5
B Ryan 39 4.3 .294/.385/.441 5 7 (6) 7 / 2 / 0 / 1 37 74 126.9
I Suzuki* 54 3.3 .333/.382/.373 2 6 (6) 15 / 2 / 0 / 0 47 88 108.4
F Gutierrez 46 3.7 .256/.326/.442 3 8 (6) 7 / 2 / 0 / 2 41 81 91.3
K Seager* 55 3.6 .220/.273/.400 4 15 (11) 6 / 3 / 0 / 2 46 74 131.6
D Ackley* 49 4.5 .233/.340/.233 5 11 (7) 10 / 0 / 0 / 0 33 77 68.0
J Montero 42 4.0 .225/.262/.325 2 14 (12) 7 / 1 / 0 / 1 51 74 154.9
M Saunders* 46 3.8 .156/.174/.222 1 10 (8) 6 / 0 / 0 / 1 58 80 83.6
J Smoak^ 49 3.6 .093/.204/.163 5 6 (5) 3 / 0 / 0 / 1 40 83 68.3

P/PA = pitches per PA [avg~3.8], nBB = uBB + HBP, Sw = swinging [avg~45%], Ct = contact [avg~81%], Qual+ = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, higher is better]

Franklin Gutierrez in 344 plate appearances last season had one home run. In 2012 he homered for the second time in just his 25th plate appearance.

Ichiro Suzuki has led off the game 23 times now. In those particular at bats, Ichiro is 3-for-23 with zero walks and, curiously, only one strikeout.

Batter PA P/PA Slash line nBB SO (sw) 1B/2B/3B/HR Sw% Ct% Qual+
D Ortiz* 45 3.8 .316/.479/.868 7 3 (2) 3 / 3 / 0 / 6 40 82 208.4
W Middlebrooks 36 3.9 .387/.389/.806 2 4 (2) 5 / 4 / 0 / 3 40 95 152.2
C Ross 35 4.2 .333/.371/.758 2 7 (6) 3 / 5 / 0 / 3 47 77 157.6
J Saltalamacchia^ 35 3.5 .258/.371/.613 4 9 (8) 3 / 2 / 0 / 3 50 77 191.1
K Youkilis 20 4.7 .333/.400/.556 2 1 (1) 3 / 2 / 1 / 0 36 88 51.1
D Nava^ 38 4.0 .364/.447/.455 5 6 (4) 9 / 3 / 0 / 0 36 85 67.1
A Gonzalez* 49 4.1 .279/.367/.395 5 10 (9) 9 / 2 / 0 / 1 53 82 79.9
M Aviles 45 3.5 .262/.333/.429 2 7 (7) 6 / 4 / 0 / 1 46 85 93.8
D Pedroia 49 3.9 .244/.306/.378 4 1 (1) 6 / 4 / 1 / 0 41 92 58.5
R Kalish* 30 3.9 .250/.333/.286 2 7 (5) 6 / 1 / 0 / 0 45 72 77.2
MARINERS Δ Ms RED SOX EDGE
INFIELD 12.3 (6th) 5.7 9.7 (8th) Mariners
OUTFIELD 8.1 (9th) 2.3 -1.1 (17th) Mariners
RBBIP 0.296 (6th) .004 0.301 (8th) Mariners
OVERALL 20.3 (6th) 8.0 8.6 (13th) MARINERS
Explainer

If you subscribe to the run saved ≈ run scored theory and have a general faith in my calculations of run values then the Mariners' position players were ≈ neutral over the last series as they made up for their putrid offensive performance with their job out in the field. It sure doesn't feel that way thought.

28 JUN 19:10

FELIX HERNANDEZ FRANKLIN MORALES*
var data = new google.visualization.DataTable(); data.addColumn('string','Pitch'); data.addColumn('number','SI 28% 93');data.addColumn('number','CH 22% 89');data.addColumn('number','FA 19% 94');data.addColumn('number','CV 13% 82');data.addColumn('number','SL 12% 86');data.addColumn('number','Overall');data.addRows(3); data.setCell(0,0,'Contact%'); data.setCell(1,0,'Strike%'); data.setCell(2,0,'GB Rate'); data.setCell(0,1,55);data.setCell(1,1,70);data.setCell(2,1,45);data.setCell(0,2,60);data.setCell(1,2,70);data.setCell(2,2,70);data.setCell(0,3,55);data.setCell(1,3,45);data.setCell(2,3,60);data.setCell(0,4,60);data.setCell(1,4,55);data.setCell(2,4,60);data.setCell(0,5,55);data.setCell(1,5,40);data.setCell(2,5,80);data.setCell(0,6,65);data.setCell(1,6,60);data.setCell(2,6,65); var options = { width:270, height:125, backgroundColor:'#F2F2F2', legend: {position:'top', textStyle: {color: 'black', fontSize: 9}}, vAxis: {viewWindowMode:'explicit',viewWindow:{max:80,min:18},gridlines: {count:7}, textStyle: {color: 'black', fontSize: 10}}, hAxis: {textStyle: {color: 'black', fontSize: 11}}, chartArea:{left:20,top:20,width:250,height:90}, series: [ {color:'#7E22AA'}, {color:'#0131CB'}, {color:'#F20000'}, {color:'#0A800A'}, {color:'#FFE606'}, {color:'black', visibleInLegend: false}]}; var data = new google.visualization.DataTable(); data.addColumn('string','Pitch'); data.addColumn('number','FA 35% 94');data.addColumn('number','SI 31% 94');data.addColumn('number','CH 20% 84');data.addColumn('number','CV 12% 74');data.addColumn('number','Overall');data.addRows(3); data.setCell(0,0,'Contact%'); data.setCell(1,0,'Strike%'); data.setCell(2,0,'GB Rate'); data.setCell(0,1,80);data.setCell(1,1,80);data.setCell(2,1,20);data.setCell(0,2,80);data.setCell(1,2,60);data.setCell(2,2,55);data.setCell(0,3,80);data.setCell(1,3,80);data.setCell(2,3,80);data.setCell(0,4,65);data.setCell(1,4,80);data.setCell(2,4,70);data.setCell(0,5,80);data.setCell(1,5,80);data.setCell(2,5,75); var options = { width:270, height:125, backgroundColor:'#F2F2F2', legend: {position:'top', textStyle: {color: 'black', fontSize: 9}}, vAxis: {viewWindowMode:'explicit',viewWindow:{max:80,min:18},gridlines: {count:7}, textStyle: {color: 'black', fontSize: 10}}, hAxis: {textStyle: {color: 'black', fontSize: 11}}, chartArea:{left:20,top:20,width:250,height:90}, series: [ {color:'#F20000'}, {color:'#7E22AA'}, {color:'#0131CB'}, {color:'#0A800A'}, {color:'black', visibleInLegend: false}]};

Franklin Morales looks very scary here in this chart, but have less fear, because it is not generated from a good representative sample. He's long been a reliever and a mediocre one and then in the last two weeks he's made two starts. Two starts. One against the Cubs and one against the Braves. He did very well in those two starts, but they are two starts.

29 JUN 19:10

HECTOR NOESI AARON COOK
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Wow, I did not realize that Aaron Cook had spent a decade straight with the Rockies and had been a Colorado player since being drafted by them in 1997. And then he signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox. And now he's had two starts in the American League. Aaron Cook has yet to record a strikeout this season. Who wants to bet that he'll still be at zero after this game?

30 JUN 19:10

ERASMO RAMIREZ JOSH BECKETT
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Compared to the previous two Red Sox starters, Erasmo Ramirez is a grizzled veteran of Major League starts, with three now under his belt. Or on his belt? Why would you put things under your belt?

Erasmo began this season with a disappointing 48 batters faced in relief. Known for his strike-throwing ability, Erasmo recorded only 64% strikes and struck out five while issuing six free passes. Since moving to the rotation however, Easy-E is up to 68% strikes in 71 batters faced with 18 strikeouts and just two free passes.

01 JUL 13:10

JASON VARGAS* FELIX DOUBRONT*
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Jason Vargas has made 17 starts thus far and in only four of them has he made it through without a home run allowed.

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
H Iwakuma 61 64.3 8 80.2 10 (8) 66.7 3 121.0 0.8
B League 51 63.5 2 85.9 8 (7) 39.0 0 96.0 1.1
C Furbush* 49 65.0 2 67.8 22 (13) 64.0 0 39.7 0.8
T Wilhelmsen 48 69.1 3 73.3 18 (14) 55.6 0 53.3 1.8
S Kelley 46 66.7 2 77.4 12 (12) 29.0 1 119.8 1.1
L Luetge* 32 60.0 5 81.0 5 (1) 50.0 0 73.0 0.7
S Pryor 21 65.6 2 79.2 5 (5) 57.1 1 79.5 1.5

Str% = strike rate [avg~63%], Ct% = contact rate [avg~78%], GB% = groundball rate [avg~45%], Qual- = a measure of quality of batted balls [avg=100, lower is better], LI = leverage [avg~1.2]

Charlie Furbush has struck out 45% of the batters faced in the last four weeks. Among relievers with at least 100 batters faced, Furbush has the highest strikeout rate in the American League. Steve Delabar is 7th and Tom Wilhelmsen tenth by the way, out of 73 qualified pitchers. Brandon League is 69th.

This doesn't mean anything, but it tickled me nonetheless. Currently Doug Fister's 2012 season is worth something around 0.7 WAR depending on your data source of choice. He got shelled for three dingers yesterday against the Rangers. So far this season, Charlie Furbush's WAR is hovering just under 1.0 according to the same sources as for Fister.

Reliever BF Str% nBB Ct% K(sw) GB% HR Qual- LI
A Aceves 45 69.1 2 78.0 11 (10) 40.6 0 40.2 1.8
S Atchison 41 67.3 1 85.1 6 (4) 56.3 0 58.2 0.9
M Albers 38 69.2 1 86.8 6 (5) 67.7 2 103.5 1.2
F Morales* 29 66.4 2 71.2 7 (5) 30.0 1 79.5 0.4
M Melancon 26 70.3 2 81.6 4 (4) 55.0 0 70.3 0.4
V Padilla 25 72.7 0 87.2 6 (3) 52.6 0 64.3 1.5
A Miller* 22 59.4 3 76.9 4 (3) 33.3 0 74.2 1.0
C Mortensen 20 69.6 0 76.5 1 (1) 47.4 1 86.4 0.4

Franklin Morales is no longer in the bullpen because he is now starting opposite Felix Hernandez!

Series Beer(s): Tripel Karmeliet
It will be hard to top the pairing of water-flavored water and the Seattle Mariners playing the Oakland Athletics to scores of 0-1, 3-2 and 1-2. Karmeliet has nothing to do with either Seattle or Boston (at least, yet, give me until the end of this paragraph to come up with something), but it's a very tasty brew. Look for it in bottles at specialty bottle shops.

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