Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariner
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 5, 2012 6:25 PM PST
in Seattle Mariners Transactions
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PrintAs we've talked about, Japanese starter Hisashi Iwakuma first really appeared on the North American radar last offseason, when he was posted and the Oakland A's submitted a high bid of $19.1 million. The A's and Iwakuma, though, couldn't agree on a contract, and Iwakuma returned to Japan. I'd like to take you back for a moment:
Japanese media had reported that Oakland made a four-year proposal worth $15.25 million. In terms of annual salary, it is equal to what Iwakuma made with the Eagles of Japan's Pacific League.
"Their offer was low and they weren't sincere," [agent] Nomura said.
Okay, now keep that in mind. After the 2011 season, Iwakuma became a free agent. Recently, he's been linked to the Mariners, and, Jerry Crasnick, just a little while ago:
Free agent Hisashi Iwakuma has agreed on one-year deal with Mariners
Further:
Deal will pay Iwakuma a guaranteed $1.5M. He can earn $4.9M with awards and incentive bonuses based on starts and IP.
In December 2010, Iwakuma walked away from a reported $15.25 million over four years. In January 2012, he's signed for $1.5 million and one year, with a chance to make another $3.4 million given health and success. I'm not saying that Iwakuma probably regrets not signing with the A's, because nobody should want to sign with the A's, but he just signed for 10% the guaranteed money.
Of course, there's a pretty good reason for that. The 30-year-old Iwakuma missed significant time with a shoulder injury last season. He came back from it, and he's healthy now, but his velocity dropped, so there are more questions than there used to be. Salary + questions = reduced salary.
Even with the injury, and possibly because of the injury, this looks like a heck of a deal for the Mariners. The worst-case scenario is that Iwakuma goes crazy and kills all of the team's good players. The realistic worst-case scenario is that Iwakuma is bad or hurt or both, and the M's are out $1.5 million. That's not much. If Iwakuma starts hitting his incentives, which begin at 20 starts and 140 innings, he's probably pitching well, and more than earning the money. This is practically all upside.
And because it's a one-year contract, there's no future risk. That also means that Iwakuma could go somewhere else in 2013 if he's good, but he'd probably be open to re-signing with the Mariners if that's something the Mariners want to do. They'll cross that bridge several months from now.
We've talked a lot about Iwakuma lately. I don't need to re-hash it. It's hard to say whether he'll be good or bad or okay. His stuff could work, or his stuff could not work. But it's fun to consider the Hiroki Kuroda possibility, and it's just nice to see the Mariners making a Major League move. Welcome, Hisashi Iwakuma. Be awesome.
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At the risk of spreading baseless speculation
My guess is that Iwakuma never wanted to go to Oakland, which is why he priced himself so high during the negotiations.
by JLC on Jan 5, 2012 6:41 PM PST up reply actions
Does he have anything to do with that?
I thought if you are posted its the team that’s setting the price.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Jan 5, 2012 7:58 PM PST up reply actions
A team places a bid for the rights to negotiate with the player that the NPB team posts
Once the posting period ends, the team with the highest bid wins. The team and the posted player then meet and negotiate a MLB contract. Once that is hammered out, the bid that the team made for the player is transferred to the NPB club and the newly signed Japanese player becomes part of the MLB team. If the player and the MLB team cannot come to an agreement, the player is not transferred to the MLB, and the posting fee is returned to the MLB team.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 5, 2012 8:22 PM PST up reply actions
Man, my knowledge of the posting system is clearly not what I thought it was
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Jan 5, 2012 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
That's not a bad theory
But it doesn’t jibe with what his agent said. Nomura said he had expected the first offer by Oakland, which was an insulting lowball offer, to be the first stage of a negotiation; but the A’s presented it as a take-it-or-leave-it offer, and he found that completely unacceptable. Further, he accused the A’s of bargaining in bad faith and never “showing respect” to Iwakuma. In sum, the ones who scuttled that deal were, by all accounts, the A’s. Billy got to keep Iwakuma from the competition and at no cost to his cheapskate bosses, Fisher and Wolff.
Would you expect a Japanese agent to badmouth an American team for no reason?
Right now, that same agent is teamed with Arn Tellem and negotiating with the Rangers for Yu Darvish. It seems to me that an agent would have to be uncommonly clueless about his own job if he were to risk alienating teams in the richest free-agent market on earth by cultivating a reputation as a public liar. What you’re suggesting is that he deviously taxed the A’s with the blame for a failed negotiation that he engineered.
The posting system was adopted, in large part, because Nomura was so shrewd about using contractual loopholes to move Japanese players to the USA, which didn’t sit well with the Japanese league. He sounds pretty savvy to me. But we’re both speculating, admittedly. I’ve just never seen anything in print that would support your theory.
He might, if he had to come back an explain to the team why they couldn't keep the posting fee.
19 million is nothing to sneeze at, and if they want an explanation while still maintaining Iwakuma’s wishes (not wanting to play for Oakland) then he’d have to blame the A’s for not negotiating in good faith, lack of respect, etc. Then again, considering the Japanese cultural idioms regarding respect, there could have just been a completely nonchalant attitude about the A’s negotiating that they didn’t like.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 6, 2012 8:23 AM PST up reply actions
Why in the world would the A's go through all that to block him?
What difference was he going to make to the rest of the AL?
Let me clarify
Nomura never said the A’s were only trying to block other teams. That’s what I suggested, as did lots of other people at the time. Why would they do that? It was a weak free-agent class, apart from Cliff Lee, and Iwakuma was considered the second-best pitcher in Japan. Of course it would be to their benefit to keep him away from other teams in the division, especially if they could do it for free.
It all might boil down to how the perspectives of Iwakuma and his agent differed from that of the Oakland A’s. Iwakuma saw what Dice-K got, and felt he was worth as much. The A’s saw the posting fee as part of the entire package — fee and salary combined. Nomura didn’t like their math. He thought the salary and the fee shouldn’t be combined to arrive at an annual compensation figure. It seems that the A’s failure to entertain a counter-offer was the breaking point.
If the As were only trying to block other teams
then they were pretty stupid to bid as low as they did.
Why?
It was enough to win the bid. And they would have looked even worse, more blatantly insincere, had they bid a huge posting fee and then nickel-and-dimed the guy when it came to negotiating the actual contract. As it happened, if they were only trying to block the guy, they went about it the right way — it worked. On the other hand, if they were really interested in signing him, why weren’t they open to a counteroffer, following the usual process in a contract negotiation? The only other explanation is that they imposed a cap on what they were willing to spend and pitched a lowball offer, on the slim chance he’d eat his pride and they’d pocket a bargain. If so, they miscalculated badly. How they could have expected a pitcher of his rank to accept less than half what the Bosox paid Daisuke Matsuzaka per annum beats the hell out of me. They didn’t expect him to be insulted?
I have transferred my Oakland hate to the Rangers
Of course, one always hates the California Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, USA, Earth, Milky Way.
Also with Tampa Bay now being good, my love for them disappeared as well and has been transferred to Oakland, except when the M’s play them, of course. At those times, I shake my fist in their general direction.
Thought you were going to go with an upside-down Iwakuma photo
Anyway, sweet deal. Obviously leaves us room to fit Prince Fielder into the budget. Because everything relates to Fielder.
Reported in Japan that the deal was inferior to other teams.
Other teams involved: O’s (who signed Wada earlier this offseason) and A’s (hahahaha).
1. Hahahahaha fuck you, Oakland
2. That fork ball looks nasty.
3. I love this deal.
SHUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUTO!!!!!!!!!!!!
Just practicing. Crowing for him to throw his shuuto (since it’s reportedly his out pitch) is probably better than HI-SA-SHI, HI-SA-SHI.
I love this signing. So nice to see a cheap acquisition that isn’t blue light special shopping / large item pickup day.
Damn, that's a good deal for the M's
Asides for ~100 fewer innings, the shoulder that kept him out at the beginning of the year, his stats didn’t particularly reflect all that much of a difference- hits per nine in line with career norms, HR rate at career norms, K/9 rate at career norms, BB/9 rate at career norms. The loss of those four MPH or so is going to make him a lot more hittable than he might have been if he was still throwing in the low-to-mid ’90s, but at least the dimensions at Safeco will help in that regard, not hurt.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 5, 2012 6:42 PM PST reply actions
Does anybody know what his current velocity is?
I was watching some Japanese highlights from the WBC, and the fastest pitch I saw thrown was 146kph, which is roughly 91mph (90.7 or so). The shuuto and forkballs were sitting in the mid 80s.
What really stuck out, though, was his command on the fastball. Catchers mitt barely moves. At least one source reports that he gets an above average amount of ground balls:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8d3t27GaLsA
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 5, 2012 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
One part of that video claims he throws a...
“hyaku-go-jyu-kilo” straight (fastball), which is roughly 93mph. The loss in velocity since then may not make much of a difference, if his WBC performance is to be believed.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 5, 2012 7:45 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, but he caught the ball! His glove barely moved!
A catcher that is good for at least one thing! Exclamation points!
He used to throw
Low-to-mid 90s, topping off at 95 MPH or so.
With a few more years tacked on to his frame, and post-shoulder injury, he now throws high-80s-to-low-90s, topping off around 92 MPH or so.
He was primarily a groundball pitcher in Japan, but considering the more power-oriented talent pool in the MLB that didn’t exist in the NPB, I would expect more flyballs- especially considering his fastball will be topping out in the low-90s.
Iwakuma bringing his control with him will be something that will be interesting to see- and probably will be key in whether or not he turns out to be an effective MLB player or not. As I’m sure we all know, that hasn’t been the case with a lot of former NPB starters breaking into the MLB (Research compiled HERE). Sometimes, looking at Hiroki Kuroda or Masato Yoshii, for example, the pitcher’s ability to control the ball didn’t change when they began using the MLB regulation ball. Other times, looking at Dice-K or Keiichi Yabu, it didn’t. There’s a billion likely variables and reasons as to why/how players retain/lose their control when making the transition, so it’s hard to point out any one specific reason.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 5, 2012 8:42 PM PST up reply actions
But they changed balls in Japan
which supposedly suppressed a lot of offense, so his numbers staying the same may actually mean getting worse. Just sayin.
The numbers that would have been effected would have primarily been walks and strikeouts
Overall offense, that has more to do with the hitter, and the ball’s impact on them. Regarding just the pitcher himself, the new ball could have screwed around with their control- it’s heavier, denser, slightly bigger (closer to the MLB regulation ball). His walk rate and strikeout rate didn’t fluctuate in any major way, so the transition to the new didn’t adversely affect his ability to hit the strike zone, nor did any short-term problems related to his shoulder injury spring up during the season, or this winter so far.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 5, 2012 8:28 PM PST up reply actions
Seattle must be the wormhole in space through which Japanese players travel
to play in Major league baseball.
"One time, when we got back to the locker room, all of our clothes were gone," Trout recalled. "They left me a Lady Gaga costume and I had to wear it."
That would make you the Garek.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Jan 5, 2012 9:21 PM PST up reply actions
Normally yes, but...
岩 = Rock
隈 = Corner/Nook
The kanji for bear is 熊.
So sadly that translation is not right. But perhaps if you think about it, his name can be looked at as “cornerstone”. So perhaps that’s even better.
Good luck with Iwamuka, Mariners got a great price on him
I don’t possibly see how this could go wrong for the Mariners, the only way they lose value on this signing is if somehow Iwakuma is injured and out for the season, even then a $1.5 million dollar risk isn’t a bad one, only upside from here
I don't always like to tweet, but when I do it's @HouseOfTheBB
And when more than 140 characters are needed, I write at HouseOfTheBluebird.com
Congratulations on landing Ewok-Uma
I really wanted the A’s to get him last year, not because I know beans about him as a pitcher, but just because I wanted lots of excuses to refer to him like this
(or better yet, photoshop the two together….)
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
by iglew on Jan 5, 2012 6:53 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Done!
PS. The red arrow is there to show that the ewok’s head is on Uma Thurman’s body. Y’know, in case anybody couldn’t tell.
by SeattleJunkieQueen on Jan 5, 2012 7:12 PM PST up reply actions 13 recs
Awesome!
But actually I was thinking of Uma’s face on the ewok body….
Baseball is a stupid-making enterprise in that nobody wants to be singled out or say something dumb. —Michael Lewis
Ironic chatspeak is allowed in only certain circumstances.
And for only certain posters.
by SeattleJunkieQueen on Jan 5, 2012 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
Context is everything. Watch.
I can’t wait for Iwakuma to join his countryman,
by abender20 on Jan 5, 2012 8:02 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
We figured that the Japanese have lower expectations.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
by EequalsMc2 on Jan 5, 2012 7:23 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
So what does this mean for the Moyer/Millwood/other veteran SP possibilities?
Do we still pursue them or do we let Furbush/Beavan/Paxton/Hultzen fight it out for the final rotation spot?
Moyer projects to have a LUPA of .105x
And a KLASH% of 62. Those numbers probably put him in the top 5 of Cy Young voting. Hopefully he does that pitching for the M’s
by Craptastic-J on Jan 6, 2012 3:48 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
It's pretty technical and difficult to explain
But the summary is that the above stats were created to cherry pick other stats to benefit M’s pitchers or possible future M’s pitchers and make them look better.
Yet
People aren’t clamoring for Broussard yet. That is phase 3.
We should bring back Petagine and then actually use him.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jan 5, 2012 9:20 PM PST up reply actions
I'd be interested in signing Francis or Millwood still if we wanted to trade Vargas (seems unlikely we'd get a good return, but the market seems inflated on the whole)
Otherwise, I don’t think the upside of any of those types is worth the money. I think Beavan could do essentially the same thing and I’d rather see him get the shot.
2012 Cy Young Winner Hisashi Iwakuma might complain
But then he’ll sign a new deal worth a squintillion dollars and forget he ever played for the Mariners.
But they need bats!
by Mariner John on Jan 5, 2012 7:57 PM PST via Android app up reply actions 1 recs
I got a couple bats around here.
I should bring them down to the Front Office. “Hey, I was talking to some other Mariners fans and they told me you guys might need these.”
by Two Rs and Two Ls on Jan 5, 2012 9:54 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How big are these bats?
Are we talking regulation, or….?
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jan 5, 2012 10:10 PM PST up reply actions
This size.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Jan 5, 2012 10:27 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't know about you guys, but I'm thinking next season is going to be amazing.
"Ever tried? Ever failed? No matter. Try again. Fail again. Fail better." - Samuel Beckett Mariners Minors
by JY on Jan 5, 2012 10:43 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
You said the same thing for the last two years...
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
That girl is rather cheery for someone about to be mauled by a giant flying hell-rat
by lemonverbena on Jan 5, 2012 11:28 PM PST up reply actions
She is finally going to own a pair of shoes.
I’d be excited too.
by Craptastic-J on Jan 6, 2012 10:23 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
How long do we control his rights?
Just the one year? Or do we get 6 like players called up from the minors?
He's essentially a free agent.
My belief is that he’s also free to sign with whomever he wants to sign with when this contract is completed.
Please feel free to correct me if I am mistaken.
He would be under team control for 6 year except
most contracts of this type stipulate that the signing team relinquish all rights. My guess is that with this low of a value the M’s signed away their rights.
Correct
Because they are technically rookies without any MLB accrued time, their contracts have clauses in them that make them normal free agents when the contract expires.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 5, 2012 8:45 PM PST up reply actions
Oakland's offer wasn't sincere, eh? Figures.
I can totally see Billy Beane opening up a briefcase full of Monopoly money, hoping to dupe Iwakuma into believing that’s what American currency looks like.
by SeattleJunkieQueen on Jan 5, 2012 7:58 PM PST reply actions
The A's have enough money to buy monopoly money?
Or did they just pick it off the ground when people were throwing it at Arod?
by Robert Praetor on Jan 5, 2012 8:00 PM PST up reply actions
That wouldn't have been so bad actually.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 6, 2012 8:48 AM PST up reply actions
Yes and no
Last year, Hisashi Iwakuma wanted “Barry Zito money” and time. Hisashi Iwakuma is not worth Barry Zito money or time. Barry Zito is not worth Barry Zito money or time.
So, while Beane probably was lowballing him, his expectations were way too high.
"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.
AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest | 1st place- 2012 AAOP Contest
by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Jan 5, 2012 8:46 PM PST up reply actions
Bean: "Iwakuma, I don't think you realize how much money we're offering you."
“You’ve probably never seen that much, except maybe in the movies.”
I assure you, something gets lost in the translation…
by TIFO on Jan 5, 2012 10:16 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
"The worst-case scenario is that Iwakuma goes crazy and kills all of the team's good players."
Yet being a Mariner Iwakuma wouldn’t qualify as a serial killer. That is upsetting.
by coasty141 on Jan 5, 2012 8:04 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Love this deal, still cheap and with actual upside unlike Francis or Millwood.
[I haven’t read the Seattle Times comments but I’m guessing it’s something like “FIRE Z, WE NEED DINGURZ”]
Yes, we have a coupon.
I want both :(
But this deal is neat.
by sanford_and_son on Jan 5, 2012 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
And Kawasaki makes a triple play.
Nintendo immediately sells the team back to Japan.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
Nintendo sells the team back to Japan?
by Patrick Stites on Jan 5, 2012 11:09 PM PST up reply actions
We'd probably be set with a major world government holding the purse strings.
by harkening on Jan 5, 2012 11:11 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
But on the bright side, we'd still have more money than the Dodgers.
by joof on Jan 5, 2012 11:26 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Japanese food > Greek food
Does this count as chatspeak?
2011 Safeco Field Record: 1-0 ; Overall Safeco Field Record: 13-5
Spanikopita, gyros, baklava, pastitsio, feta, dandelions, olives. You're wrong.
by yuniform on Jan 6, 2012 2:23 PM PST via Android app up reply actions
Sushi, yakisoba, takoyaki, teriyaki, wasabi, SUSHI, miso.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Jan 6, 2012 3:46 PM PST up reply actions
Actually......
Depending upon how you look at it, Japan has the most amount of debt in the world as a percentage of GDP, but debt per capita has them doing somewhat alright.
Maybe he will pull a Roger Clemens and stare down the management box while walking off the field.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
I humbly accept this birthday present that the Mariners have acquired for me
by SuperDopaLiciousFunkStar on Jan 5, 2012 11:28 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Congratulations!
You’re birthday present was an incentive to give strangers more of your money!
by Liebkartoffel on Jan 6, 2012 7:01 AM PST up reply actions
Its Criff Ree!
"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot
by beastwarking on Jan 6, 2012 10:10 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Iwakuma song idea...
Robyn – Konichiwa Bitches.
Well, Rosenthal says we may still be interested
In a veteran starter, and that we’re in on Paul Maholm.
I would like to see this happen for the freakouts from the “we need bats!” club. Although with a couple of arms around to compete for the #5 slot, bats might be the better way to go.
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