Nautical Twilight

From picking BJ Upton at #2 in 2002 until they broke .500 (and incidentally went all the way to the WS) in 2008. Along the way they basically didn’t have a miss in the first round outside 2005 (whereas they took the likes of Dewon Bazelton prior to that) and they grabbed a lot of talent in the lower rounds as well.

Depending on how you look at it, the clock on that model for the M’s started when they picked Ackley in 2009; though I guess if you want to be generous you could start with Morrow in ‘06 or, better, Aumont — who helped get Lee, who got Smoak — in ’07. But even if you’re being generous, the transformation from Mariners caterpillar into Rays-esque butterfly is still a couple of years away.

And frankly, neither should go anywhere near it with the intent of “playing” defense.

to “trust the process”

Guti is back, Ichiro rebounds, Montero, Smoak and Ackley all have good seasons, Olivo doesn’t hit in the middle of the order against RHP, there are some nuggets in the pile….

That is a lot of if. I’ll be cautious.

the Mariners are like a 6 and certainly seem ahead of a lot of other teams in reasons for “fanboy” optimism. I could see true optimism coming in the next couple of years if things go good, but right now it’s a bit too early unless a lot of things go right.

Can the compass be a fighting robot?

I meant the latter. In retrospect, Nautical Dawn would’ve been way better, had I realized it was a thing.

Here is what we have to work with: 1) the Mariners have never once said they intend for payroll this year to be equal to payroll last year (I believe they DID make such a statement last year). 2) there are no obvious ways for them to spend that money right now that would seem to make sense, though clearly a preseason trade, the draft or even in-season acquisitions could present spending opportunities. 3) All the shit about Chris Larson and his divorce and unsubstantiated rumors and speculation about selling the team, etc. etc. 4) Attendance has been going down for years, and so have revenues, probably. 5) It’s getting a little late…

I don’t think they’re going to spend much more money.

His bosses may not, I’m guessing, but who knows?

Could be a breakout season for him. Let’s hope for that.

But then, who knows if the listed values are correct anymore.

Honestly, Smoak’s size confuses me. In pictures he looks a little on the tall, lanky side, and adding muscle could make a huge difference. But watching him on TV last year, he looked like a bowling ball rolling around the bases. But then, we hear the phrase “4% body fat” in reference to Smoak’s new physique… 6’4, 230 and 4% body fat sounds like Greek God territory.

I don’t know what to think!

If the M’s somehow find themselves in the race in July, there should be some flexibility there to make a move. However, it seems like Jack would make a good move otherwise, though perhaps this gives him a little more wiggle room, or has to give up less if he takes on more salary.

Otherwise, payroll should be a non-issue. Teams shouldn’t just be spending money because they have it. Edwin Jackson as the best free agent remaining reportedly wants four years and that’s three more years than I’d want the M’s to commit to.

I’ve always said that 2012 should be a development year for the Mariners. There was just no way to assemble enough talent to hang with Texas. Then the offseason saw the Angels reload big time. Now we have two perceived juggernauts in the AL West, making it even harder to climb to the top.

So what do you do?

1) Significantly raise payroll to “show you’re serious about winning” and proceed to sign Michael Cuddyer, Josh Willingham, Carlos Pena, and Edwin Jackson? That will certainly add some wins to the team and it maybe puts the Mariners within striking distance of the other teams. Meanwhile, we’re basically cannibalizing on developmental opportunity to make yet another weak run at the division title. Fans love to see tangible evidence that their team has a shot at winning the World Series….and tangibly even if the Mariners manage to land multiple free agents it still looks like a 3rd place team at-best on paper. That’s not a recipe for attendance gains.

2) Maximize developmental opportunity by focusing on stabilizing a foundation of young players while complimenting them with cost-effective veteran talent, if possible. This gives the most flexibility for managing for the future. Of course, fans are already annoyed with being told to “be patient and wait this thing out.” Naturally, this means ownership prepares for damage control on their finances as the attendance slide continues.

I’m describing a choice between two extremes. And it seems like the organization is going all-in on the 2nd. I’m fine with this. I think the team needs another development year. We just don’t have a solid enough foundation to start comfortably adding wins with free agents or trades for short-term solutions.

I am not worried about payroll. There will be a time in the future to test the ownership in regards to payroll but this isn’t one of them. All this talk about payroll this offseason circled around Prince Fielder. Prince Fielder signed for 9-years and $214 Million with Detroit, a team already on top of their division. Again, this wasn’t the test.

When it comes the time to strike, the team will require more funds. That’s when we find out if ownership will put up or shut up.

I don’t know how that happened.

Wells

Twice at 2:18 and 5:07 he brings up Wells in the same breath as Smoak and Carp. And he didn’t really name drop that many guys overall. Interesting observation is all.