The Longevity and Future Success of Felix Hernandez.

by TheFranchise78 on Jan 26, 2012 4:03 AM PST

There was a discussion in another post about the future of Felix Hernandez after throwing so many innings. A poster threw out an absolute view that Felix would not be worth resigning due to deterioration and started a discussion on this view. If Felix throws the average amount of innings that he has thrown in the last three years he will hit around 2100 inning by age 28 .I decided to look at other pitchers since the end of World War II (1946) that threw 2.000 innings at age 28.

I found that 13 pitchers have thrown 2,000 innings at age 28. 8 pitched from the age of 33 and after. 5 won the Cy Young at the age of 28 or younger. (Gooden, Valenzuela, Blue, Catfish Hunter, Drysdale). The Question is how did these 13 pitchers do after the age of 28? Out of the 13, 6 of them made the All Star team. (Blue, Robin Roberts, Hunter, Drysdale, Blyleven, Sutton) None of these pitchers won the Cy Young after the age of 28. 5 pitchers made the Hall of Fame: Roberts, Hunter, Drysdale, Blyleven, Sutton. Robin Roberts's best years of his career came before the Cy Young award existed, he had a good chance to win one. Sutton was the only pitcher to win 300 games.

Felix has already won a Cy Young and has a good chance of being a solid pitcher into his mid to late 30's. If Felix can make a couple of All Star games and become the first pitcher to win a Cy Young out of this group after the age of 28, he has a good chance to become a Hall of Famer. I think if Felix stays successful during the rest of this contract, then it is worth the risk of resigning him.

Stats came from Baseball-Reference.com

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With all due respect

I’m not sure “number of All Star Games” and “number of Cy Young Awards” and “Hall Of Fame Inductions” are the stats you should be looking at in order to judge the longevity and future success of Felix Hernandez. B-R is chock full of actual stats that can tell you that story much better.

by pdb on Jan 26, 2012 6:50 AM PST reply actions 5 recs

You mean like ERA?

by InSpokane on Jan 26, 2012 9:38 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

Even if all you had was ERA, it would be a better indication than awards and All-Star games by a mile.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Jan 26, 2012 10:25 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs

I like this fanpost

Because I have confidence that it will pique the curiosity of one of the statistically inclined readers of this site, who will go back and look at how the number of pitches by the age 28 affects a pitcher’s longevity.

Then hopefully that person will post that information here, rather than hoard the knowledge all for themself.

by Snuffleupagus on Jan 26, 2012 2:47 PM PST reply actions

I'm looking forward to future Data Hipsters. They'd share the databases but they don't want them to be too popular.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Jan 26, 2012 6:45 PM PST up reply actions

So many problems as to be worthless, even beyond those pointed out above -

What about innings pitched in the minor leagues? Do they not wear a pitcher’s arm out the same as in the majors? What about the differences in pitch type and frequency? Different pitches wear the arm differently.

by Terminator X on Jan 27, 2012 10:54 PM PST reply actions