Graph: Home Run Rates by Vertical Pitch Location
by Matthew on Jan 23, 2012 1:07 PM PST
in Around Major League Baseball
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PrintWhen I was talking with Jeff last Friday about the day's posting schedule, he mentioned the upcoming Furbush post and how he was having trouble finding something interesting to take away from it. Never minding that I think he did come up with two very important questions — not just for Furbush but for many things — Jeff's post actually touched off a mini brush fire of interest for me because it got me thinking a lot about home run rates.
There's a couple posts coming here on that matter, but first I want to direct your attention to one I wrote up for FanGraphs since it dealt less with Charlie Furbush or the Mariners and more with baseball in general. I examined how home run rates change based on where pitches are located vertically. I expected the result that I found, but not the magnitude that I did. Check it out; it has a graph!
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Left hand vs. right hand
I wonder if you were to create the graph based on where the pitch was thrown, inside vs. away, one for right handers and one for left handers, what kind of results you would see. If you look at Furbushes splits in particular he has a huge HR problem with righties ( 14 hr vs righties 2 vs lefties.) I get that it’s probably easier for righties to see the ball out of his hand, but I wonder if he just isn’t locating against them either.
Way too small split samples
And furthermore, Furbush’s HR total splits aren’t as dramatic as you indicate. He faces many more right-handed hitters (72% of all PAs) than left-handed ones.
Is there just not enough data for Furbush?
Because going off of his numbers last year, he was three percent more likely to give up a home run to a righty. Is three percent not significant enough or is the sample to small?
Do you need to account for pitching "style?"
I wonder out loud if a pitcher who lives in the high side of the strike zone gives up less HRs than those who are known to pound the low side and give up an occasional meatball on the high side.
Go Fo Broke!
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