You Guys Are Excited About Jesus Montero
by Jeff Sullivan on Jan 16, 2012 8:24 PM PST
in Miscellaneous
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Back on December 23rd, we polled the audience. We asked you how excited you'd be about the 2012 Mariners if the roster picture remained more or less as it was at the time. Options were presented on a 1-to-5 scale, and 3,285 people voted. On average, the excitement rating came out to 2.4.
We polled you again this afternoon. We asked you how excited you are about the 2012 Mariners now, with the new roster picture. Options were presented on a 1-to-5 scale, and so far more than 1,800 people have voted. On average, the excitement rating comes out to 3.4.
It's a difference of a full point. Or, to be specific, 1.01 points. By this measure, audience excitement has increased by 43 percent. Since the first poll, the Mariners have signed Hisashi Iwakuma and traded Michael Pineda and Jose Campos for Jesus Montero and Hector Noesi. They've also officially signed George Sherrill and Munenori Kawasaki, but those were foregone conclusions. I'm assuming this has nothing to do with Aaron Heilman.
That's a pretty big jump. At least, I think that's a pretty big jump, although it's not like I have much in the way of references. Now, one notes that the questions were phrased slightly differently. There are always going to be some sample size issues. The polled audiences might be a little different - there are new people here now, on account of the big trade. And it's been almost a month, which means we're almost a month closer to the season, which could cause excitement to rise. This isn't perfect science.
But I think the information is interesting and meaningful. And I suspect - although I cannot confirm - it doesn't have a lot to do with Iwakuma and Noesi.
I think this is about Montero. I think the audience is excited to have a potential franchise hitter who can make an immediate impact, and who could be around for a long long time. Mariners fans wanted a bat. The Mariners got a bat that Baseball America gave an 80 power rating on the 20-80 scouting scale (if I remember correctly). Montero's an exciting player.
Of course, to get Montero, the Mariners gave up Pineda. Pineda is less than a year older than Montero. He's definitely more proven in the Major Leagues. If Montero has the talent to be a superstar bat, Pineda has the talent to be a superstar arm. He's awesome. We watched him. He's really awesome.
It's funny - the excitement rating is up 43 percent. I'm not sure the Mariners are much better now, in terms of 2012 win projection, than they were then. I definitely don't think the Pineda trade made them much better in the short-term. They got a really exciting young talent in exchange for a really exciting young talent who is exciting in a different way.
So maybe this is less about Montero specifically, and more about change. Mariners fans wanted the team to do something big. The team did something big. Big things are exciting. It's the same phenomenon that drives overactive fantasy baseball managers. You could sit on your team, or you could constantly tinker. It's more exciting if you constantly tinker. Tinkering keeps things fresh.
Michael Pineda is an awesome young player that we know. Jesus Montero is an awesome young player that we know way less. The discovery process is an exciting one. We have a pretty good idea of what Pineda can do. We get to find out what Montero can do (and from which position he can do it!).
If the 2012 Mariners are better than they were a week ago, they aren't better by much. Yet the fans, or at least the fans around here, are significantly more excited about the season ahead. I can't help but feel like I'm only scratching the surface here, that there's more substance and insight than I've been able to glean.
Or maybe it's all about dingers.
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I was excited for Jesus Montero!
Now I’m excited for Jesus Montero when he doesn’t play the Yankees!
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
Yep.
I’m firmly entrenched in the “Fuck it, DINGERS!” camp.
by SgtSasquatch on Jan 16, 2012 8:38 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Word
I fucking hate you Mariners
by kentroyals5 on Jan 16, 2012 9:04 PM PST up reply actions 14 recs
Why shouldn't you?
I thought everyone had seen that ad.
"Baseball isn't the world's best distraction, but only because it's so easy to start a fire." --Jeff Sullivan
by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 17, 2012 6:25 AM PST up reply actions
Chicks Dig The Long Ball.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jan 17, 2012 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
The relationship between "slight improvement" and "excitement" is non-linear
Next week’s addition of a “Touch of Gray” to the Mariner Moose to mask the NW mildew patina will generate a 20% excitement increase.
Law of Logical Argument
Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
It's a change
The signing of George Sherrill and the trade for John Jaso, bless their hearts, doesn’t change the dynamic of the team. I’ve seen the 2011 Mariners already. They weren’t very much fun. Why would I want to see them again in 2012?
Any excitement was wrapped around hoping young guys continue to progress, which is nice, but it’s not as tangible as a shiny new player.
Acquiring Montero instantly changes the dynamic of the team- this isn’t going to be the 2011 Mariners with a minor facelift-it’s a new feeling altogether. For whatever reason, Montero being around has made me more excited about Ackley and Smoak- I can’t pin why, but his being around makes me feel better about their progression.
It’s a new team- and however unlikely it is, there’s a shot that we could surprise the hell out of the league. That didn’t feel possible a few days ago. Today it does.
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
by Corco on Jan 16, 2012 8:41 PM PST reply actions 15 recs
The first picture of him in an M's hat is going to make me so [opposite of dry].
by BigR on Jan 16, 2012 8:45 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
At first I was like "Yeah! Run prevention!"
And then I was like “Yeah! Dingers!”
I'm going to start flipping shit the first time Montero goes deep for us.
So I expect it’s all about the dingers.
Richie Sexson was pretty awesome to watch that first year.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
by JAH on Jan 16, 2012 9:35 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Funny thing that as Sexson's production went down.
Beltre’s went up.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
That's old for that type of hitter.
Which is why Fielder scares the bajeezus out of me.
Because he wants a century-long deal
And the chances of him being productive for the last 96 or 97 years of said deal are pretty slim, comparing him to previous players with his skillset.
Proactivity is exciting
It feels like a management team that’s endeavoring to build a winner. Even if this trade isn’t great, it represents a real reshaping of the M’s talent base by intelligent, thinking management. That’s exciting.
by bookbook on Jan 16, 2012 8:56 PM PST reply actions 4 recs
You said exactly what I was thinking.
Just glad to see them do something of importance.
Brett Gleason | Twitter | Sports Minds Blog | Never fallen in the sarchasm.
by Brett the 49er on Jan 16, 2012 9:12 PM PST up reply actions
1997 Randy Johnson went 20-4. It was phenomenal watching him pitch every fifth day,
But it was more fun watching Griffey everyday in route to 56 dingers Excitement; Montero>Pineda.
Sidenote: nI love dingers, you may love dingers, but Autocorrect absolutely despises them.
by sofa_king on Jan 16, 2012 9:04 PM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
As a reminder to us all...
The Big Unit did that in the KINGDOME. It a park that was FAVORABLE to HITTERS/DINGERS. He might have been more valuable than Junior….
And the only team that gave Randy fits that year was the Orioles.
And guess who we drew in the first round of the playoffs…
For me the trade felt like it broke the Mariners out of a stasis where there weren't many paths towards a watchable team.
Other than strapping ourselves to Fielder’s risky, expensive body.
Now it seams like there are obvious low risk upgrades the management could make. Like signing Oswalt or Jackson to replace the production we lost with Pineda.
Overall, feeling like we are slightly more balanced with the potential for positional depth has me feeling relieved rather than excited.
by stredarts on Jan 16, 2012 9:12 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
I'd like to see Oswalt here too
but I think he’ll have other options. Teams with a better chance at the post-season, or closer to his home in the south. Would I pay him the same the Yanks paid Kuroda? Don’t know for sure. It all depends on his health. No back problems, he’s worth 12 million. Back problems, he’s not worth 6. But if you could get him for, say, 7 or 8 million instead of 10, I’d go for it. But I’m not Jack Z, and it’s not my call.
I’m torn about Fielder. On one hand, it would be great to see his mash the ball. On the other, we need more than just one player. 20 or 25 million a year can fill two, three, or even four lineup spots if done carefully.
But I do think that this trade has at least generated some excitement. Going in to the 2012 season with only minor tweaks from last year didn’t exactly get the old heart racing.
by Bald Eagle 1313 on Jan 16, 2012 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
We have no room for Fielder (And this is NOT a fat joke)
With Montero, we’re stacked with the DH rotation, at least partially. If we sign Fielder to rotate between 1B and DH, then we’re counting on Montero to catch the majority of games in addition to playing Carp frequently in left.
"You are the molders of their dreams." - Clark Mollenhoff
It seem like every pitcher who will get a one year contract should want to come to Safeco
by Snuffleupagus on Jan 17, 2012 1:25 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah it seems like but
I don’t know if athletes who are very aware of their abilitys and therefore very selfconfident really consider factors that might help their statistics when deciding where to go next.
That's a good point
that seems obvious, but I’ve never thought of (or heard) before.
If your’e on a one year contract, coming to Safeco could be worth millions of dollars for your next contract, it seems like an agent should point this out. But, you’re likely correct, athletes probably just plan on playing well wherever they go, and chance of playoffs is good.
Although Oswalt probably has a better chance of playoffs by coming to the Mariners. They would likely trade him before the deadline to a team that is 100% in the hunt.
by Snuffleupagus on Jan 17, 2012 2:11 AM PST up reply actions
Oswalt being traded at the deadline
is something I hadn’t considered. That’s a damn good point. But will he (or his agent) think that far ahead?
by Bald Eagle 1313 on Jan 17, 2012 9:27 AM PST up reply actions
I don't remember who.
But I remember seeing an article about one of the free agent signings (maybe Colon?) talking about that as possibly being part of the reason that they had chosen that team.
by Aussie Mariner on Jan 18, 2012 1:16 AM PST up reply actions
I think I changed my vote not only because of, of course, the dingers!
but also that I was in the “I hope we don’t pay a bunch of money for Prince Fielder” camp. It may not be true but it makes some sense that this means we aren’t as firmly in the race for Fielder as some people think, which is kind of a double win for me. If instead of spending money on Fielder, we decide to make this trade which doesn’t affect payroll and use the cash to sign another pitcher/another hitter. It’s kind of a pipe dream but if we signed Oswalt and Venable and called it a day I would be pretty happy about the offseason.
Do you think it's possible to acquire him?
I think SD could afford to let him go. Don’t they have a bunch of outfield players?
Twitter- @GriffinNW
by GriffinNW on Jan 16, 2012 10:32 PM PST via Android app up reply actions
Last time I checked San Diego needed a catcher who can hit in Petco.
holy shit Olivo for Venable would make me so unbelievably happy
by ThirteenOfTwo on Jan 16, 2012 11:10 PM PST up reply actions
Sadly, they also apparently want to cut down on the strikeouts, so that probably won't happen.
But they do also need bullpen help, and the Mariners have The Pile, so there could still be a match there.
by ThirteenOfTwo on Jan 16, 2012 11:13 PM PST up reply actions
I'm with you on being excited about acquiring a young, cost-controlled, high-ceiling bat.
While I’m sad to lose Pineda, I’m glad we turned surplus into the hitting we badly needed (in the form of a smiley Venezuelan Paul Bunyan). Chris Cwik has a relevant post on FG talking about teams that build talent (hitters) by producing young pitchers, and I’m just glad to see us get value back for our “crop”.
Now they just need to fix third base
by Chris_FB on Jan 16, 2012 9:34 PM PST via mobile reply actions
They should totally put it 90 feet from second base
by fiftyone on Jan 16, 2012 9:47 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Trapezoid.
Or spend the money that was saved for Fielder and upgrade to a pentagon.
It's ironic that both Olson and Cedeno
have been signed by the Mets.
Judging by what he showed starting for the Cubs in 09 ST, Heilman could have been a solid starter here, and may still have enough in the tank to succeed in that role.
"Me, I romp and stomp Thankful as I romp
Without freedom of speech I might be in the swamp" B. Dylan
A big bat makes up for a lot.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
Unless a man has festering boils or is Jack Wilson, I have no idea if they are attractive or not.
How come you can do all this other great shit, but you can't lie the fuck down and sleep?
Proximity to the season
That’s why I bumped it up a point. This is still going to be a 90-100 loss campaign, or if we’re all VERY lucky, 80-90 losses. That’s not anything to get jumping-up-and-down-excited about.
Same record with new hotness as with old and busted
Probably a misuse of ironic on my part. Hopefully not Alanis Morrisette level misuse.
by Chris_FB on Jan 16, 2012 11:43 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
You're overestimating how bad they are.
Even if they don’t make another addition they are probably a 75-80 win team with upside.
Will you please do us all a favor?
And promise to go away if your unfallible prediction amounts to more wins for the M’s than that?
Please and thanks!
You've been warned and boxed before for being a dick to other posters.
Are you trying to get back there?
by Matthew on Jan 17, 2012 11:10 AM PST up reply actions 7 recs
You are just a ray of sunshine in the collective grey cloud of Mariners
by seattlebruin on Jan 17, 2012 9:35 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
Oh I'm sure I'm a little on the pessimistic side
But am I that wildly wrong? Are the Mariners expected to make the playoffs this year?
A .500 team is within reach.
I remember being pretty excited watching a team hovering around .500 last year before they went on a skid and traded all of their pitching.
Well
or if we’re all VERY lucky, 80-90 losses
You are emphasizing that our best (best!) case scenario is that we lose 80-90 games, and thus are very bad. I would call that wildly pessimistic. Simply based on the rough, rough 31 WAR that Dave Cameron posted at USSM gets us around 76 wins, which would mean 86 losses.
Either your definition of “very lucky” is way off or your projections are that we are the 2003 Detroit Tigers
by seattlebruin on Jan 17, 2012 10:44 AM PST up reply actions
No, the Mariners are not expected to make the playoffs this year.
Since the team will certainly need to win about 95 games to accomplish this. It doesn’t really have anything to do with trying to win over 72 games (90-100 losses), however. If the team only wins 72 or less that means quite a few things went wrong. This team winning over 72 games cannot be considered “VERY lucky.”
You mean 90*
Beating Boston, TB, and LAA for a WC2 might even mean winning 94 games :(
I hate the AL sometimes
And hilariously if the wild card becomes a one game playoff, we'd get to toss Felix against whoever our poor opponent was
by seattlebruin on Jan 17, 2012 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
Not necessarily
Unless you’re going to use Felix on short rest no matter what, you can’t be sure of that. There could be a race for the second wild card that lasts right to game 162 just as there was for the wild card this past season. A three-way race for two wild card spots could mean that both teams in the “play in” game are starting someone other than their #1… and then they have to go on to the real playoffs with their rotation out of order (which is really the point of the second wild card, to handicap the wildcard team, though obviously keeping more teams in the mix in September is good for the owners’ pocketbooks).
I wonder how many people voted like me...
…just so damn excited to get baseball going again that I voted high in the excitement scale. Now I can’t wait to see what Montero can do this season!
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". ~Rogers Hornsby
by extavernmouse on Jan 17, 2012 1:19 PM PST up reply actions
For me personally I found watching this team's offense to be extremely boring after Smoak went down.
If Felix can continue being Felix and if Vargas and Iwakuma can be solid, this can be a fun team to follow.
"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot
Even if this move didn't make the team substantially better it did make them substantially more watchable.
As fun as Pineda was, he only pitched every 5th day. Remember how painful some of those Vargas starts with Adam Kennedy batting 3rd where to watch last year? At least Montero well make the team more enjoyable on a daily basis.
This I think best summarizes my feelings as well
There should be fewer games where the other team is up by two runs in the fourth inning and you turn the game off because a win is clearly out of reach.
162-0.
"Perhaps the worst comment I've ever seen on LL." - sanford_and_son.
by Ride the Apocalypse on Jan 17, 2012 4:57 AM PST up reply actions
So using (<) and (>) erases the word
“pronouncing ‘Hh-aero’ wrong”
by Craptastic-J on Jan 18, 2012 5:34 PM PST up reply actions
Think of Montero as the Bowser of the Mariners in this case
Minus the wanting to kill you all
Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc
Co-Manager/Writer for Pinstripe Alley, Editor/Writer for Blueshirt Banter
Bowser wanted to kill greasy Italian plumbers from NY
Makes sense that they traded him now.
Mushrooms will also quake in fear in the Northwest now.
by Craptastic-J on Jan 17, 2012 2:19 PM PST up reply actions
To some degree I think it is about a change from the established.
Not that the feeling is valid, but I see people taking a quality pitching staff as a forgone conclusion. The loss of Pineda doesn’t feel as large as it should, as the M’s keep one of the best pitchers in the game, backed by a list of potential arms of which we are frequently reminded. To that end, the potential of good cheap pitching out of the organization doesn’t seem so deeply wounded, while the addition of a similarly valuable (though unproven) bat seems greater than its true worth to fans of a team that has had such exaggerated offensive woes.
I'm not sure that the M's will end up a whole lot better then they have been the last few years, but I'm hoping they will be DIFFERENTLY bad.
Having one more potentially legit hitter will certainly make this team more watchable, even if they don’t end up with a whole lot more wins.
That's the Anna Karenia Baseball Conjecture
Winning teams are all alike; every losing team loses in its own way.
But some paths to losing are more watchable than others.
A team that holds opponents to 1 run a game will still lose to a team with zero offense.
I think the Mariners, of all teams, needed someone like Montero more than the WAR difference gives credit for.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Jan 17, 2012 1:20 AM PST reply actions 5 recs
In order to win, you must score at least one run
Or the game will never end, no matter how good your run prevention is!
Our offense was depressing
Outside of August (18th!) we placed 26th twice and 30th 3 times.
Yep, we placed 30th in September with Ackley, Smoak, Carp, Seager all playing full time.
I guess you could blame Trayvon Robinson for sucking so much, but even without him and Saunders I think we rank 29th ahead of the A’s and that’s it.
The potential of a watchable lineup is making me excited
Ichiro – Ackley – Smoak – Carp – Montero – (healthy)Guti
Sure, in my mind it’s all upside, but this time of year is all about the potential, so much potential!
The heck with dingers -- OFFENSE
I now have the expectation that the Marienrs might not be last in runs scored, even behind NL teams with their pitchers composing 11% of the hitting lineup.
Pitchers have got to be happy.
I admit it, I am excited!
I voted “neutral” on the trade, based on my intellectual response to the trade. But emotionally, I’m pretty freakin’ excited to finally have a big franchise bat in our lineup.
I voted in both excitement level polls and I jumped from a 2 to a 3.
Ichiro-Ackley-Montero-Smoak-Carp-Wells-Gutierrez-Seager-Ryan. That may not sound like an intimidating lineup YET, but at least that is finally, on paper, a legitimate lineup.
Ichiro gets on base and has speed, so as long as he’s Ichiro-Ichiro, he’s a good lead-off choice. Ackley has the perfect Jeter-like tools to bat second. Good contact, decent patience, fair power. Montero has good contact and monster power, he’s the kind of hitter to build a lineup around, so he’s fit for batting third. Smoak projects to be a good power hitter who can draw a walk, so he can protect Montero and bat fourth. Carp has power, so he can drive in runs in the five spot. Wells hits for a decent average, has pop and can walk, so he’s fine at sixth. With a return to form, Guti could hit second or third; for now, as long as he’s shows some of what he brought to the table offensively in ‘09 and ’10, he should do well with less pressure on him in the seven spot. Seager projects to be better than a black hole with the bat, so he’s number eight. Ryan is a defensive specialist at shortstop, that’s why he’s here; if he’s an average nine-hole hitter, I’m sure we’ll all be happy.
So, though some of these young players may not pan out and though some of the older players may not return to form, the lineup is at least set up so that if the players develop right, the offense will flourish. And that’s probably all we could ask, realistically, from Z.
As for the pitching side, losing Pineda hurts, but this team has a surplus of young pitching talent on the way and also shouldn’t have too much trouble signing free agent starters, considering the friendly ballpark. Personally, I think this team should sign Edwin Jackson to a nice long-term contract NOW.
"Perhaps the worst comment I've ever seen on LL." - sanford_and_son.
by Ride the Apocalypse on Jan 17, 2012 4:54 AM PST reply actions
What would you define as a nice long-term contract for Edwin Jackson's services?
Just out of curiosity.
3-4 years sounds good to me.
"Perhaps the worst comment I've ever seen on LL." - sanford_and_son.
by Ride the Apocalypse on Jan 17, 2012 6:32 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I suspect a lot of the excitement
comes from the feeling of freedom from PRINCE FIELDER WATCH! Yes, I realize, we could still sign Prince, but with this deal, there are now other more obvious topics of conversation, and other more obvious free agents to improve the team.
"Baseball isn't the world's best distraction, but only because it's so easy to start a fire." --Jeff Sullivan
by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 17, 2012 6:29 AM PST reply actions
I strongly agree
Part of the benefit of this deal is providing the bat that certain Mariners fans had to have, but not doing not doing it by overpaying on an enormous contract for a decade. In that sense it’s another brilliant move by Jack Z. Now he can go out and sign a decent pitcher, without the fan base absolutely flipping out. Even if this trade doesn’t increase the teams WAR (and may decrease it in 2012), it frees up the team to make moves that do.
by Snuffleupagus on Jan 17, 2012 9:51 AM PST up reply actions
Yes.
Use the money they were saving for Prince to sign Edwin Jackson. And/or convince Javier Vasquez to not retire?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring". ~Rogers Hornsby
by extavernmouse on Jan 17, 2012 1:25 PM PST up reply actions
Hell yea I'm excited
Then again I was also excited after:
-they traded for Bedard
-they signed Figgins
-Clement got called up & hit 2 “funk blasts”
-that time Jack Z jangled his keys towards the camera
So take it with a grain of salt I guess.
I wonder how much of the added excitement has to do with the dingers and how much of it has to do with US and dingers.
Inherently, would any ballclub rather have an exciting hitter than and exciting pitcher, or is it just because we are Mariners fans, like it might be for an A’s fan or a Pad’s fan? I would think fans are usually more excited for an every day player, but I’m so biased at this point because I wanted the M’s to get a hitter so badly.
follow @casetines
Nothing could replicate a Felix Day for me
But, during the season, that’s only once every five days. Granted, Pineda made a truly exciting pitcher get to the mound twice every five days, but Montero plays every day.
Also, offense!
My observation on the increase of excitement
623 more people voted in the December 23rd poll. My guess many of those people were in the just sign Prince Fielder or get a big bat crowd.
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