Montero, Smoak, Carp, and Wells. How it works.
by tarheels24 on Jan 14, 2012 9:52 AM PST
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PrintThis was originally meant as a FanShot but my thoughts got a little longer so I decided to put them here. Obviously this is going to be about the trade.
In Buster Olney's segment today, Insider only of course, he says that despite thoughts around the league, both the Yankees and the Mariners think Montero can catch. I semi agree.
If the Mariners do feel Montero can catch then I anticipate them using Montero as Cleveland does Carlos Santana.
For those who don't know that situation, Cleveland wants Santana in the lineup everyday, so instead of continually using him as a catcher he also plays 1B. This way it keeps his bat in the lineup but allows him to not get burnt out from catching. Great for Fantasy ;)
If this happens I could see Montero getting a lot of games at catcher, maybe more. Some at 1B, and then the rest at DH.
This allows Smoak the majority of playing time at 1B and some at DH, while Carp plays in LF and may serve as our primary DH.
The way this would break down over the course of the season would be something like
C: Montero - 90 games | Jaso - 40 | Olivo - 30 - would not surprise me to see one traded
1B: Smoak - 120 | Montero - 20 | Carp - 20
DH: Carp - 60 | Smoak - 30 | Montero - 40 | Wells - 30
LF: Carp - 80 | Wells - 80
Wells may be pushed out a little bit here but the potential is there for him to move around the OF somewhat with Guti's injuries and Ichiro getting older.
This may be one way to keep our potentially best hitters in the line-up throughout the season without having to hurt there development and stick any of them at DH frequently.
About the potential line-up, I don't think this is rosterbation, as technically we have these players just discussing order they hit in, I don't Montero starts in the middle of the order right away, but as the kids continue to develop we could look at a line-up something like this:
Ichiro (RF) - Ryan (SS) - Ackley (2B) - Smoak (1B) - Montero (C) - Carp (LF) - Wells (DH) - Guti (CF) - Seager (3B)
Our rotation obviously takes a hit with this trade, but we do gain a lot and add flexibilty. If Ackley, Smoak, and Montero live up expectations and Carp and Wells continue to pay well, as well as Seager providing solid hitting from the back end we would look to have a nice young line-up. If Ichiro bounces part way back and Guti or Ryan can manage to find something then that would help a lot as well.
Our rotation obviously takes a hit and I am all for adding EJax or Oswalt to the rotation but I don't think we will be bad in that area either. Obviously we lead off with Felix (he is still ours everyone), then after that the order gets jumbled but we have Vargas, Iwakuma, Noesi, Beavan, Furbush, and also Hultzen and Paxton fighting for a rotation spot. My attempts to predict an order will most likely be wrong but I would put it as:
Felix, Vargas, Iwakuma, Noesi, Hultzen
This trade may hurt but I think it helps us out in the long term. As many have said, we dealt from an area of strength to acquire a player in a position of need. The big wildcard here is Noesi, and while Campos could be good down the road, he won't help us now, and Noesi will.
Those are my thoughts and I would love to hear more of yours.
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Good analysis
In my opinion, it’s more likely we’ll see Ackley hitting 2nd and Ryan pushed to the back of the order while others move up. But who knows.
This also assumes no other moves happen, which seems unlikely. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the M’s spend some money on a SP or maybe a 3B to let Seager percolate a little more.
The Montero/Jaso/Olivo situation is interesting. If Montero can’t catch, the other 2 are pretty essential. If Montero CAN catch at least for some games, one suddenly becomes extremely expendable. There’s probably at least SOME market for a durable catcher with 20 dinger power, right?
Definitely.
I have seen it other places that while Olivo does have many flaws, his power and durability still make him a good option for some teams. I think I have even seen that said here.
You are right potentially about Ackley at #2. That is something I wrestled with myself. I could see it going Ichiro-Ackley-Smoak-Montero-Carp-Wells-Guti-Ryan-Seager.
I definitely don’t think we are done for the off season, this move should serve to remind us that we are always looking at our options and aren’t afraid to act when one comes up.
One thing I didn’t bring up much is players like Franklin, Catricala, and Paxton who could conceivably see a call-up this season and make an impact in some way.
If the front office does not see Catricala as being able to manage any 3B then I could see him being the next piece traded if Carp is indeed going to play quite a bit of LF.
Nah
if they think Catricala’s LF at best they’ll wait until he’s ready, then move Carp out of his way.
"Baseball isn't the world's best distraction, but only because it's so easy to start a fire." --Jeff Sullivan
by The Ancient Mariner on Jan 14, 2012 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
I don't doubt he is a LF.
I just see his best chance at making an impact soon for us is at 3B. If Carp continues to hit well then Cat could become expendable as he doesn’t have a very set spot for us and could serve as a good chip.
Likewise so could Carp in the same way.
If Carp hits pretty well and takes a step forward in contact rates,
I could see him being shopped as a Raul Ibanez type. In Safeco and the left-field, I think we need better defense out there at home than a typical team does. Not that Catricala would necessarily be any better defensively, though. I’d love to see Cat stick at 3B, be an average defender.
by the tourist on Jan 14, 2012 11:28 AM PST up reply actions
Even if Montero catches half of the games or so
you still need 3 catchers if you are going to play Montero at 1B or DH. Probably don’t need an Olivo, but you at least need a Gimenez.
by Ballard Erik on Jan 14, 2012 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Was a reported interest by the Twins in Olivo earlier.
Veteran catchers always find jobs.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 14, 2012 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
Probably won't get much for him,
but I imagine we wouldn’t have to eat a whole lot of money either. I guess it depends what we would want from a hypothetical deal.
by Ballard Erik on Jan 14, 2012 10:50 AM PST up reply actions
Wells.
You said you think in that scenario Wells is a bit pushed out and then mention Gutierrez and Ichiro concerns. With Gutierrez’s 2011, I’d expect Wells to be in CF a couple dozen times. I also expect Ichiro will sit a handful of games.
Exactly.
In those 4 spots I outlined I think Wells will be the one with the lesser amount of time, but I think he will be able to fill in other spot unlike the others. Primary backup for Guti and Ichiro.
Speaking of Ichiro, and I know this is off-topic,
but if 2011 was simply an aberration for him, wouldn’t this be the absolute best time to renegotiate/extend him and get his next few years cheaper? 3 years and 36 million would give the team quite a bit of current payroll flexibility and could be a huge bargain if he bounces back.
by the tourist on Jan 14, 2012 12:13 PM PST up reply actions
That is a fairly large if.
Now I don’t doubt Ichiro preparing to the best of ability for the season, but at this point I don’t think we look to negotiate with him until after he shows that he is bouncing back. Even at that I am not convinced that giving him 12 mil a year would be smart.
Ah, okay.
It was just a random thought anyway. I wonder if his eyes are part of the problem. He is slightly slower, but his infield hits were pretty close to normal so I don’t think that’s the major contributing factor. It just seems like he was making weaker contact and then getting very unlucky on some of his better contact. So could the weaker contact be an eye problem (like Casey Kotchman)?
Anyway, sorry to make this waaaaaaaay off topic – just don’t have too many knowledgeable Mariners fan friends out in the real world. Most people I talk to reminisce about guys like Buhner and Randy and aren’t sports people in general.
I feel your pain.
Not many knowledgeable Mariners fans in NC.
I think he's made enough money...
that he doesn’t need to worry about giving up any security. He’ll either rebound and get paid more, continue his decline and get paid significantly less or possibly retire. Either way, money won’t be much of a factor from his end.
--------------------------------
Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jan 15, 2012 2:30 AM PST up reply actions
So this is all assuming Figgins is on the bench?
If not, where does he hit? First, with Ichiro second or third? Second? Bottom of the order?
Yeah.
I originally was going to make a couple different lineups based on situations, but then I realized there wasn’t much difference.
The other thing, I guess.
Is that means your bench at this point is Jaso, Olivo and Figgins. Which means with one spot left you either have to settle for Carp/Wells as LF/4th outfielder (and Figgins?) or Seager as your backup SS, no? Unless Wedge goes all crazy with his bullpen usage again and we carry five guys on the bench.
by Aussie Mariner on Jan 14, 2012 2:43 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, assuming Montero will see time at C then having 2 pure catchers on the bench ties things up a lot. I could see it shaking out like this:
Olivo – traded
Jaso – C
Gimenez – OF, C, 1B
Figgins – 3B, 2B
Kawasaki/Rodriguez – SS
Gimenez’s versatility will mean it isn’t as crucial to push Guti and Ichiro too much as well as offer a spell at catcher if the team wants to DH Montero and rest Jaso because I doubt they will get 162 games out of a pure Montero/Jaso combo. In an ideal world maybe the team finds a veteran third baseman, ships out Figgins and can move Seager into Figgins’ role, but I’d be fine seeing how Seager can do in a starting role.
by BaronVonBullshit on Jan 14, 2012 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
I like this.
I was thinking we were half a player light in the outfield. Gimenez helps this team a lot, but no matter how you slice it there is no way this team can afford to carry 12 pitchers, which is fine considering Wedge’s bullpen use.
I wondered about something like that, yeah.
I wonder if they’re going to see if they’re okay with Montero catching before they move Olivo. If they do decide to split Jaso/Montero behind the dish I wonder if they’ll even go for a third catcher, and not maybe another outfielder, so the bench has the more usual C/IF/IF/OF look, but what do I know.
by Aussie Mariner on Jan 14, 2012 4:40 PM PST up reply actions
If Olivo is traded, does Moore join the big league club full time?
Or have they just completely given up on him? It seems like he’d be cheaper and easier to justify giving limited playing time to than Olivo.
by ThirteenOfTwo on Jan 14, 2012 10:05 PM PST up reply actions
I doubt it.
It’s more a flexibility issue, carrying three catchers doesn’t work very well from what I can see.
by Aussie Mariner on Jan 15, 2012 1:24 AM PST up reply actions
It's actually not too bad, and probably better than 2 catchers
C: Montero, Olivo, Jaso
OF: Carp, Guti, Ichiro, Wells
IF: Ackley, Smoak, Ryan, Seager, Figgins, Kawakuma
Figgins and Ackley can both play OF if 2 OFers get injured in a single game.
Kawakuma?
Anyways, if you want to carry 3 catchers, at least have one of them be like, Gimenez, who can play OF. If we run a 6 man bullpen, maybe carrying a 3rd catcher would be alright, but it seems like we hinder our flexibility by not having a real outfielder. If your “backup” outfielders are Carp, Figgins, and Gimenez…. Yikes. Ackley should not be thought of unless we run in to crazy bad luck.
by Patrick Stites on Jan 16, 2012 1:50 AM PST up reply actions
Back-up SS is Kawakuma or L-Rod
Why Gimenez? His OF is for emergency only, but you’re forced to bring Figgins no matter what, and Gimenez/Figgins OF defense is probably a wash. Figgins and Ackley are enough emergency OF.
Do we really need more OFers than Carp, Guti, Ichiro, and Wells? I can’t see a scenario where we need more than that.
Ichiro's dino-buddy is Kawasaki. The FA pitcher is Iwakuma.
Although, a utility player who covers middle infield and starting pitcher would be nifty.
One of them gets hurt but not enough to go on the DL.
One of them sucks or struggles
by Mariner John on Jan 16, 2012 11:19 AM PST up reply actions
This all comes down to, is Montero your catcher or your DH?
If Montero is your DH then Carp is your 4th OF. If Montero catches somewhat regularly, then you’re either giving Jaso or Olivo too few at bats to justify that roster spot. Let’s say Montero catches, Carp is plugged in at DH, then Wells goes down, who do you have to backup CF or RF? Figgins, and it would probably be a clown show. And let’s be real, Figgins is only being talked about as a backup outfielder because he used to play those positions on occasion years ago. 8 innings in LF last season and that’s pretty much it for his OF experience since 2007. As for Ackley? When was the last time he played the OF? Exactly.
To sum it up, 3 catchers = unnecessarily hampering your flexibility. Unless say, one of them is injured, but not enough to go on the 15 day DL, then it’s probably not a good idea.
by Patrick Stites on Jan 16, 2012 1:23 PM PST up reply actions
Wells is 4th OF, Carp is LF
Wells sees OF when Montero catches, or when he’s spelling Gutierrez/Carp.
When Montero is DH we’ll see Carp in LF more often than not.
We really have no need for another OF with this set up, which means we could go 3 catcher and it wouldn’t hamper flexibility.
Figgins and Ackley are just for insurance in case 2 OFers get injured the same day.
Kawakuma
Would translate as River Bear or River Corner
by Kiwi Mariner on Jan 19, 2012 2:31 AM PST up reply actions
I think it's time to forget about Adam Moore
Determined, Jonesing Commentor
by Corco on Jan 15, 2012 8:03 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
That should be really easy to do.
Already it happens 4 or 5 times a season.
Doug Fister. :(
Last year...
Our 3,4,5 to start the year was Bradley, Cust, and Smoak. Now it could very well be Ackley, Smoak, and Montero. That is awesome.
What isn’t awesome is that last year our rotation was Felix, Bedard, Fister, Vargas and Pineda and now only Felix and Vargas remain. :(
That really was a fun rotation.
Shows how imbalanced the team was, though. I miss Fister.
Aaron Curry is the first Seahawk since Walter Jones to have a legitimate shot at Hall of Fame induction - John Morgan
by Fearless Frog on Jan 18, 2012 7:18 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
We played .500 ball with the worst offense in the league
thanks to our pitchers. I find that utterly amazing.
No way Ryan bats second - batting second is where Guti at his Mariner prime did best
I think the lineup, most days, goes Ichi-Guti-Ackley-Smoak-Montero, Jaso/Olivo/Carp, Wells/Carp, Seager, Ryan/Kawasaki.
If Montero catches, I’m sure it’s Carp at DH and Wells in LF. Otherwise, it’s Jaso or Olivo batting 6th and Wells or Carp (depending on matchups) batting 7th.
I also wouldn’t underestimate the love Wedge and company have for Carp, and that he’ll get in there as much as possible even if it means sacrificing some defense to do it.
If Guti’s tummy kills his career good and dead, we probably see Wells there a lot more and… um… I don’t know who your #2 hitter is at that point. Oh hey, perhaps your pepto-bismol lineup is:
Ichi – Ackley – Montero (DH)- Smoak – Carp (LF) – Jaso – Wells (CF) – Seager – Shortstop du jour.
Me too.
Those homers were unexpected and needed.
Aaron Curry is the first Seahawk since Walter Jones to have a legitimate shot at Hall of Fame induction - John Morgan
by Fearless Frog on Jan 18, 2012 7:20 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
There was a report that Guti had gained 19 pounds this offseason. As for Wells, I'm not sure.
by Mariner John on Jan 15, 2012 9:12 PM PST up reply actions
19 pounds?
That’s either good news or a really big tumor.
Doug Fister. :(
Or a lot of 12 oz curls.
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Just North of Wrigley Field
by jameslcrockett on Jan 16, 2012 2:02 AM PST up reply actions
If that's 12 lbs of muscle
And Guti gets back to his old self – this team could actually start looking good. He would be a great 6 or 7 hitter.
And if Wells is all healed up – watch out.
I think it’s sort of wierd that I want Montero to DH and Jaso to catch most of the time (weird in that it seems to diminish some of the value of the trade). But i think offensive and defensively, that would be the best fit. If Montero can catch 1/3 of the games and allow us to work Carp and Wells in a good amount – then we’re in good shape.
by BennyGStein on Jan 16, 2012 10:45 AM PST up reply actions
I apologize in advance, but...
It’s not a tumor!
/Schwarzenegger
Anyone that thinks Yuniesky Betancourt outplayed anyone last year, you're a moron, and I hope your genes are stricken from the world to prevent further breeding.
Trust me on this: If you have to apologize in advance for your joke, don't make it here.
It doesn’t end well.
by thehemogoblin on Jan 16, 2012 6:22 PM PST up reply actions
I don't think anyone who has ever apologized in advance
is actually sorry. It’s a silly phrase.
by ChristopherA on Jan 20, 2012 6:09 AM PST up reply actions
I think so.
I was looking it up and it seems like he was called up in July of 2009 for the first time and then wasn’t optioned afterward. That would mean that this is his last option year.
by JY on Jan 18, 2012 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
I wouldn't say he has no chance.
One of the issues that I projected to be working against him was that Halman had run out of options :( As it stands now, we figure that Guti will be in center and Ichiro in right. With Montero around as a catcher/DH, that pushes Carp back to left field at least part of the time. But there’s also Wells to consider, and he may very well serve as a sort of fourth outfielder for us because holy crap we need to get something out of that trade.
If we for whatever reason decided that we needed a fifth outfielder, it would be between him and and Trayvon since both can cover center field, and Saunders would probably get the edge right now. This is all assuming no other moves are made.
by JY on Jan 18, 2012 9:39 PM PST up reply actions
Doesn't inspire much optimism, but it's something
Was really hoping he’d breakout last year and now he’s being blocked by a bat first red-head and a guy with no balance.
I think that trade almost makes the Erik Bedard one look good
by seattlebruin on Jan 19, 2012 2:41 PM PST up reply actions
It's sad that I think I have more hope for Ruffin than anyone else.
Francisco Martinez had bad peripherals in winter ball. Furbush is probably just a swingman with a funny name. I have no idea what to think of Wells.
by JY on Jan 19, 2012 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
Wells is going to be spectacular.
...and now I'm here
by CapSea on Jan 19, 2012 6:33 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Does he really deserve it?
He has never hit anything at the big league level. I wouldn’t be averse to him getting ONE more chance, but if he doesn’t, no big deal.
Actually I've just been rooting for him to breakout for the last few years
And was hoping he still had a chance.
I wouldn't be happy with 90 games behind the plate from Montero.
I was hoping the Yankees would use him max 40-50 times behind the plate this year. I think he probably has his most value being used as a catcher for 60 or so games a year and mixing in 1B and DH the other 100.
"I'm a little worried about being a slut"
~ Bobby Hill
His lack of mobility is a real problem behind the plate.
Just about any pitch in the dirt is getting past him or becoming an adventure. He’s so big that he can’t easily get out of the crouch to dive from side to side and block balls, plus he leaves a giant hole in between his legs that the glove can’t always make up for. I saw several balls go right between his legs and to the back stop last year in his very limited time behind the plate.
He isn’t going to be framing pitches and stealing strikes but I don’t think he is a bad receiver of the baseball. He has a strong hand and wrist and the glove doesn’t move much from where he catches it. He doesn’t understand the finer point of framing pitches, and he’s no Jose Molina but he could be much worse in this aspect.
When it comes to throwing out base runners it’s a mixed bag. He has a real cannon for an arm so on occasion he throws out guys and makes you say wow, but he also has a hard time getting out of the crouch to throw to second and sails the ball at times. In the minors they worked on simply leaning forward and throwing the ball instead of popping up to help with this. On the one hand it’s a plus that he has such a strong arm for this to be a possibility, on the other it’s a negative he’s so inflexible he has to do it this way.
I’ve also always had a worry that he’s so big in the crouch that he would block the umpires view from calling strikes, thus costing the pitching staff deserved called strikes.
My belief is that he won’t be a catcher in the future. I’ve been wrong before so he could certainly make me eat crow, but he is so large and so inflexible it’s hard to see him sticking.
"I'm a little worried about being a slut"
~ Bobby Hill
by Chris Hines on Jan 16, 2012 11:01 AM PST up reply actions
I might have some hope for him.
As much as we’ve dogged on the Mariners for not improving catchers as much as they said they would, Adam Moore looked far different in Everett (“where’s the ball? oh, it’s underneath me!”) than he did in Tacoma and Seattle. Montero isn’t going to have the luxury of a slow move up the minors to iron things out, but some improvements probably can be made.
He'll work hard to try and get better, of that I have no doubt
but I have just always thought that his problems stem from simply not being flexible and athletic enough to play the position at a level acceptable to stick. Which I don’t think can really be changed.
"I'm a little worried about being a slut"
~ Bobby Hill
by Chris Hines on Jan 16, 2012 12:16 PM PST up reply actions
We have this new-fangled conditioning program that's supposed to help on flexibility, to an extent.
A man can dream.
Far be it from me from crapping on that dream my friend
I was there dreaming it myself a year ago. Montero’s value becomes almost limitless behind the plate, he becomes much less thrilling at 1B or DH.
I’ll now swap that dream out for the dream that Pineda stays healthy and develops a devastating change/split.
"I'm a little worried about being a slut"
~ Bobby Hill
Flexibility can be improved.
It’s just like strength, it takes time, discipline and regular consistent application.
Difference is people are generally more happy to spend a few hours in the gym than a few hours stretching.
And stretching to gain flexibility is not a pleasant experience. I’m working on my lower back/hamstrings right now and it suuuuucks. Worth it though, well worth it.
by Aussie Mariner on Jan 16, 2012 10:23 PM PST up reply actions
I cancelled weights and employed a power yoga program my senior year of high school
To great results. I gained 8-10 mph of controlled velocity due to simple core strength and flexibility. I would heartily endorse any baseball team at least try to get their guys on a semi-regular yoga program. Totally changed how I played and how durable I was, but it was a long, hard road of ugly, embarrassing activities. If professional football players are willing to do ballet to improve footwork, baseball players should really look into yoga.
IMOIMOIMOIMOIMO
IGNORE ME
by tsunamijesus on Jan 17, 2012 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
One of Australia's top cricketers employed a similar strategy.
And stopped getting injured every five minutes.
by Aussie Mariner on Jan 17, 2012 11:41 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks much for the great scouting reports, man, I really appreciate it. You and other visitors have gotten me really jazzed about this trade.
I have a lot of good detail to look for when watching him play this season now…
project
I think Wedge will make Montero his special project this spring…He needs time behind the plate! I’d like to see him get at least 90 games in this year.
Montero/Jaso
Move Olivo.
Montero catches against LH (about 30% or 50 games), Jaso against RH (because he can’t hit lefties AT ALL), with Montero at DH.
I like this plan except it necessitates having an emergency catcher who can actually catch
unless we plan to just have Danny Hultzen on the team to pitch/bat by then
by seattlebruin on Jan 18, 2012 9:49 AM PST up reply actions
Chris Jimenez
Can’t we use someone like Chris Gimenez to be something like an emergency C/OF/1B
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