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Around SBN: The Most Dangerous Division in Sports

Ichiro Is Amazing, Volume 3,716

Last night, Ichiro stepped in against Luke Hochevar to lead off in the bottom of the first. That's when he did this, against this first pitch:

Ichirohochevar_medium

That's a first-pitch curveball, a little out of the zone. Not only did Ichiro swing at it - Ichiro made contact, and obliterated the pitch into the right field stands. Said Hochevar:

"The first-pitch curveball to Ichiro, I don't even know what to say about that one," Hochevar said. "The [first pitch] of the game -- it was a good pitch and he hit it eight rows deep. I've never seen it, I've never had it happen. I normally don't throw first-pitch curveballs in a game, but what do you do?"

The entire sequence was incredibly rare. Going back to 2009, PITCHfx has identified 83 first pitches as curveballs, or 0.6%. Of those 83 first-pitch curveballs, batters have swung at just three of them. Of those three swings, two have resulted in fouls, and one has resulted in a home run - Ichiro's swing, last night.

I don't know if there's any greater meaning to this. I don't know if I have to look for it. My sense is that, no, I do not, because the event was sufficiently remarkable on its own. Last night, Luke Hochevar threw Ichiro a curveball with his first pitch of the game. It was a good curveball. Ichiro swung at it and hit a home run. Amazing.

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These are the things that make people wonder

About the whole “30 home run power thing.” Because that ball was crushed.

I'd rather know a little about a lot than a lot about a little

by Sportszilla on Sep 9, 2011 10:15 AM PDT reply actions  

Given how much power Ichiro shows in BP

abnd further given how easily he seems to hit homers off breaking balls (whereas with fastballs he needs his power swing), I wonder if it’s just his timing.

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Sep 9, 2011 10:34 AM PDT reply actions  

The first pitch of the game lead-off home run might be my favorite thing in baseball.

it’s just about the most demoralizing way to start the game off.

I don't want to achieve immortality through my work... I want to achieve it through not dying.

by Terminator X on Sep 9, 2011 10:54 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Even though softball <> baseball

I recently started a softball game where the opposing team hit 8 dingers in the first inning. HR,HR,HR,1B,HR,2B,HR,HR,1B,HR before we started making outs.

It was the most depressing thing ever.

by d0nkey on Sep 9, 2011 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Those are some fun facts!

I was just thinking last night that 200 hits now seems out of reach. I’d love to see Ichiro spend the rest of the month trying out his power game.

by MapleBar on Sep 9, 2011 11:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, I've been wondering if he's going to think about that in the offseason

If his streak of 200 hit seasons is over, and he has to acknowledge Father Time, maybe this is an opportunity to change his game — start taking full swings instead of breaking out of the box right on contact, etc. His average will suffer — though as we’ve seen, he’s still one of the best “bad ball”hitters — but his power will increase. In the best of all possible worlds, he turns into a pretty good version of Vlad Guerrero.

by J0SER on Sep 9, 2011 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

There has been post-game speculation about this, as his extra base hits have gone up the last month or two

Drayer has mentioned an interview where he said that he’d change his game when he realized he had to, and she opined that it would be an off-season adjustment, as he is such a planner.

by msb on Sep 9, 2011 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, now that you mention Drayer I think I remember reading/hearing that from her

Which I’m sure is why I was wondering this. Pretty much all my ideas come from somewhere else.

by J0SER on Sep 9, 2011 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Signature significance?

I’m not sure; but if Ichiro were really as finished as his stats this season make it look, would he be able to do something like that? This gives me hope for a bounceback next year (and ohh, boy, do we need it).

by The Ancient Mariner on Sep 9, 2011 11:43 AM PDT reply actions  

That 0.0 WAR works if you believe UZR and you believe Ichiro has the worst range of qualified RF's this year.

Fangraphs UZR has Aubrey Huff 8.5 runs below average range (RngR Range column) based on 13 balls in his zone and he made 7 of the plays. I may not be reading RngR correctly, but basic math tells me that 8.5 runs on 6 plays means each play he didn’t make is worth about 1.4 runs and I’m pretty sure a ball in play in the outfield isn’t worth 1.4 runs on average.

by Jed MC on Sep 9, 2011 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's not. About .9 to 1.0 runs on average

Also, he’s credited with 5 out of zone plays made. So… yeah.

by Matthew on Sep 9, 2011 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

This brings up an interesting question then

Which carries more weight? Does failing to make an ‘in zone’ play hurt more than making an out of zone play helps?

by twelveoutof10 on Sep 10, 2011 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

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