SB Nation post, referencing Nate Silver blog
Estimated by multiplying together the playoff chances of the Red Sox; the playoff chances of the Rays; the chances the Sox would lose the game when the Orioles were down to their last strike; and the chances the Rays would win in the bottom of the 9th, also down to their own last strike.
It felt surreal enough at the time. Now it feels like luck that should have gone to someone winning a lottery somewhere.
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