Justin Smoak's 2011 - What Happened?

by BaronVonBullshit on Sep 20, 2011 2:14 PM PDT

Last night Dave Cameron posted an interesting article over at ussmariner.com about the team attempting to acquire Joey Votto instead of Prince Fielder. Now if Fielder comes to Seattle it is generally assumed he would take the role of DH, but with Votto being a slick fielding first baseman it got people in the comments talking about what happens to Justin Smoak, would the team trade him? Is he a good enough hitter to occupy DH? One commenter said that Smoak has not proven himself as a major league hitter and that he should be flipped to allow Carp to hold onto the DH. Personally I think that this is a supid idea as Smoak is thought of as the more talented player. If anything, Carp should be traded while his stock is high, but I digress. The point of this is to take a look at Justin Smoak's 2011 and make a hypothesis as to what went wrong. I know Jeff touched on this earlier in the season, but I think what went wrong was June 25th and how the aftermath was dealt with.

One June 25th Marlin's pitcher Randy Choate hit Smoak with a pitch on the hand. Now from what I know I can say the hands are very vital when it comes to holding and swinging an item, in this case let's say... a baseball bat. I would imagine any sort of pain or soreness would inhibit one's ability to swing this item with the authority and skill that swinging with pain free hands would. However the Mariners claimed that nothing was wrong with Smoak and continued to play him as their everyday first baseman from the 26th until he was hit in the face and forced to go on the DL on August 12th. Jeff previously looked at some of Smoak's slump and pre slump numbers, but now that he's back from the DL we have some "post slump" numbers to look at as well!

April 1 - June 25

.260/.372/.480/.852 with 16 HR, 18 2B, 44 BB and 56 K's

June 26 - September 1

.131/.198/.178/.376 with 0 HR, 5 2B, 11 BB and 29 K's

September 2 - September 14 (his most recent game)

.326/.396/.465/.861 with 2 HR, 0 2B, 4 BB and 13 K's

The two extra base hits in 13 games is a bit concerning, but it's only 13 games. Again even though it's 13 games it's encouraging to see Smoak hitting again and it could give some evidence that yes, indeed there was something wrong with his hand. It seems all too convenient that his slump started the day after being hit and didn't end until he finally had extended time to rest and heal.

On the other hand, someone could argue he can't cut it for an entire season and his slump was due to fatigue. That he only came out of it because he had time to rest. I don't think that he would have been drafted in the first round and thought so highly of if there were questions about his stamina and the HBP is an extremely convincing catalyst.

If we take the slump out Smoak's season line would read as .270/.374/.478/.852, to me that seems like a legitimate amount of production from him. It was awesome when he was OPS'ing in the .900-1.000 range, but somewhere around the mid to high .800's seems like where his true talent may lie.

In this non expert's opinion Smoak is a middle of the order bat who needs to recognize when he hurts himself and take the time to heal so that he can give as much production to this team as possible. Unfortunately the slump put a damper on his season and certainly doesn't help him put a lockdown on first base for 2012, but he is still a young player to be excited about and someone to build a team around.

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I agree almost entirely,

If not for the douchie necklace/lei/american eagle rubbish he decided to wear I would fully endorse him over Mike Carp. And with regards to the 13 games, sample size does indeed apply, but I also remember at least 1 hard hit ball off the wall that went for a long single. So it would seem that the deep power had been reemerging.

by Nichos on Sep 20, 2011 4:12 PM PDT reply actions

I still look at Smoak as a future/present Texiera threat

but with better on-base skills. I don’t know why the luster has come off of his prospect status to the degree it has. Two partial big-league seasons from a 24-year-old first baseman with big time power and a great eye? Is that enough to write him off? I really like Smoak and see him as a cornerstone of this team for a long time, assuming he provides adequate production, which he has, when healthy. I think BVB has a fair assessment of the situation. He was great, then he got hit in the hand by a projectile, then he was bad, then he got hit in the face by same projectile, and now he’s finding his stroke again, with authority. I agree with this interpretation of the events. I think the dude’s legit. And for 419k, back off.

Ready to Play

by tsunamijesus on Sep 20, 2011 6:48 PM PDT reply actions

Was anyone arguing that his slump was due to fatigue?

Some assorted thoughts:

- Most people know Smoak is probably good so this does seem like a weird site to share these thoughts. I don’t know many people here that need convincing that Smoak could be a successful major league player.

- I believe there is a pretty good chance that Smoak turns out better than Carp, because Smoak has a great history and has been highly regarded his entire career. But Carp was also drafted as an 18 year old, and when you’re that young how you’re regarded is not quite as important as your track record once you get here (that doesn’t mean it’s not important – it absolutely is) then he’s hit at every level he’s played. So it’s not as though Smoak is far and away better than Carp. Smoak is just probably better and scouts like him more.

- Smoak’s groundball/line drive splits are still a concern, so it’s not like people have no reason to be worried about Smoak’s potential. There are reasonable people that can doubt his ability, even if they’re probably wrong.

- You can’t really just take out a slump and claim that what’s left is good. If you take out all of Mike Carp’s slumps he’s got like a 1000 OPS. We are pretty sure that Smoak’s slump was due to some bad luck and his hand injury, but we don’t know this with certainty, so excluding it altogether isn’t usually a good idea.

- It’s a small sample, but his ISO still hasn’t been very good since “recovering” from the hand injury and his BABIP in this month that he’s “recovered” was .429. He’s been better, but he hasn’t been great.

- I don’t agree or disagree with the Votto idea, but Votto is still plenty better than Smoak right now that if you approved of Cameron’s idea of gunning for the next two years, it could be argued Smoak would be pointless.

- Smoak’s Teixeira comp was due in large part to his “great defense” that he doesn’t have. So his upside is still not nearly as high as, say, Votto. Smoak at his absolute best may not be worth 4 wins, while Votto is a good bet for 7, and Smoak also has more risk. This wasn’t in your post but it was in tj’s comment.

I dunno. It may just be me, but I’m not sure what your point is other than “I think Smoak is probably good, because when he was bad it was probably not his fault.” That’s great and all, but is there something more I should be seeing? Something that might make me think? I’m curious as to what I was supposed to take away from this other than your overall opinion of Smoak.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Sep 21, 2011 1:40 AM PDT reply actions

I don't think anyone was saying that, I just didn't want to assert that his slump was due to an injury with absolute certainty.. because we don't know that

I don’t know that I am arguing a point with this, as it’s more of a stat dump. I was curious about his numbers from pre hit by pitch, post hit by pitch till the DL stint, and since coming back and I figured I probably wasn’t the only one who might be curious so I spent a little time and wrote something up.

The part about ignoring the slump data was really just a little throw away bit, I mean it’s basically just the first part of his season plus 13 games. Obviously you can’t ignore the slump because it did happen. I probably shouldn’t have included it and I’ll learn that for next time.

Mostly this post came from me reading a comment that said something along the lines of “Justin Smoak has yet to prove he can be a major league hitter while Mike Carp has proven he can be” I thought that sentence was false, I was very bored this afternoon and this is what happened.

I don’t know where I stand on going after someone like Votto, but yes, you’re right, he would absolutely push Smoak off of first base. It could be argued that Smoak would be pointless, but the other side of the argument is that we still have a hole at DH and a young, cheap, potentially great hitter to fill it. Unless you had to include him to get Votto I wouldn’t really see a point in sending him (or Carp) somewhere else.

I don’t think there is something else you should be seeing from this and maybe nothing in here makes you think, but I didn’t mean it to spark a giant stimulating conversation. I know you’re probably just trying to give some constructive criticism and I appreciate it, but I’ve noticed this before with other fanposts (not necessarily from you) and it seems like some of the more veteran LL posters jump on people for not posting stimulating fanposts.

Nobody goes into Jeff’s “Dustin Ackley Slump Data Dump” and says "I’m not sure what you’re point is other than “I think Dustin Ackley is probably pretty good, and even though he’s striking out more we shouldn’t be worried” That’s great and all but is there something more I should be seeing?" yet I’ve seen comments similar to this on other fanposts. Are the fanposts held to different standards than what Jeff and Matthew write up?

I don’t mean to be attacking you with that last bit, but it’s just something I’ve noticed, but hey on the other hand the only way I’ll become a better analyst and writer is to keep doing it and get feedback that pushes me as opposed to people just saying “I agree”

by BaronVonBullshit on Sep 21, 2011 3:00 AM PDT up reply actions

Cool.

Well I won’t respond to most of the bulk since it was more of the thoughts I had from reading your FanPost and your response to them. To this:

Are the fanposts held to different standards than what Jeff and Matthew write up?

Yes and no. I don’t think so, but at the same time when someone does a FanPost there’s usually a driving reason, especially because of all of the scrutiny on this site. I didn’t really know what yours was, and since you wrote so much I assumed there was one I was missing. But okay. I don’t personally mind if you don’t have one but I think the FanPost might be preaching to the choir. Most people here know that Smoak has a good chance of being an effective major leaguer and that his slump may easily have been due to his finger issues, so it does seem a little strange to bring it up here as though you’re going to get disagreement. It would be like making a post that says “Ichiro has been well worth his salary from 2001 to 2009” or “Dustin Ackley is likely to be a good second baseman.” We all kinda know that, so for you to make a post about it here would seem weird, only because it’s being read by people that aren’t going to disagree.

But hey, I don’t really mind what FanPosts you or other people make. Only that it’s hard to know what your motivation for writing it is if the majority of LL … I don’t want to say “already knew that” but I’ll say “won’t second guess anything.” Hard to stimulate discussion when everyone’s on one side, yeah?

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Sep 21, 2011 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions

I get what you're saying, but you are also making the assumption that everyone who visits this site is like you or I

There are bound to be new fans, casual fans who just discovered the site, or fans of other teams just visiting. None of these people necessarily knew that Smoak was hit by a pitch just before his slump started, maybe they thought he was another flopping prospect and maybe now they think otherwise. This was more of an informative post than a conversation starter and the intended audience wasn’t really for people who were already informed. That audience is probably a very small section of LL, but I’m sure it exists.

by BaronVonBullshit on Sep 22, 2011 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions