The Ichiro Suzuki Disaster Scenario

Good news, PECOTA! You finally did it!

8 months ago Jeff Sullivan 15 comments 0 recs |

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I choose to believe that Ichiro will bat .409 next year

by chaney on Sep 14, 2011 4:22 PM PDT reply actions

It should be noted that over half of my book collection is related to mythology

by chaney on Sep 14, 2011 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions

Seeing him compared to Juan Pierre in a way that makes sense makes me feel awful on the inside

by OlSalty on Sep 14, 2011 4:36 PM PDT reply actions

I hope Ichiro reads this, sits bolt upright, and goes apeshit next year.

by abender20 on Sep 14, 2011 4:38 PM PDT up reply actions 7 recs

remember when he told Randy Johnson he'd never bring shame on his jersey number?

Have you seen my son's velocity?

Pithy.

by Lies and Perfidy on Sep 14, 2011 6:08 PM PDT up reply actions

He's done a pretty good job.

by joof on Sep 14, 2011 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions

Remember when he rewrote baseball history?

by fiftyone on Sep 14, 2011 8:38 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

He took the jersey number of a player with a Hall of Fame career

and turned in his own Hall of Fame career.

I think he’s done it justice.

RIP Dave Niehaus.

by Goose on Sep 15, 2011 5:48 AM PDT up reply actions

Oh God, way to ruin my day Jeff. :(

Post tenebras lux

by Archibald Cunningham on Sep 14, 2011 4:51 PM PDT reply actions

Bright and shiny attitude, Jeff!

Now I’m going to go and cry myself to sleep!

by FaceRuiner on Sep 14, 2011 5:00 PM PDT via mobile reply actions

Could somebody give me some background on PECOTA?

I see it mentioned fairly often, but I guess it may have been before my time. Does it severely underrate hitters or something? What do Ichiro’s PECOTA values typically look like?

by SeattleJunkieQueen on Sep 14, 2011 5:33 PM PDT reply actions

It hates Ichiro

Always has. One of the reasons I tend to ignore PECOTA (which I choose to pronounce so it sounds like the ballpark in San Diego as pronounced by an Italian)

by J0SER on Sep 14, 2011 5:43 PM PDT up reply actions

My best explanation is that it offers comparisons of players to other players based on their projected ability and/or actual ability.

Therefore, Ichiro is similar to Juan Pierre in PECOTA, except he’s always been like Super Juan Pierre.

by FaceRuiner on Sep 14, 2011 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions

PECOTA is a Baseball Prospectus projection system

It tries to project players based on what similar players have been able to do in the past, but because there haven’t really been similar players to Ichiro, it’s always undershot him, every year. Until now :(

by Jeff Sullivan on Sep 14, 2011 6:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Ichiro is pretty much historically unique, so PECOTA always underrates him.

PECOTA for Ichiro Since 2003:
Year AVG/OBP/SLG
2003 .306/.368/.419
2004 .309/.351/.423
2005 .311/.355/.415
2006 .308/.343/.406
2007 .310/.354/.398
2008 .304/.346/.384
2009 .292/.338/.359
2010 .322/.375/.426

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12114

by joof on Sep 14, 2011 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions