The reason behind Ichiro's slump

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(ESPN Insider link)

At Baseball Info Solutions (BIS), one of the things we track is Good Fielding Plays (GFPs). In simple terms, a GFP is a Web Gem, a play in which a fielder makes an extraordinary effort to record an unlikely out or to prevent an advancement of a runner (although it's worth noting that not all GFPs result in a batter losing a hit).

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Through Aug. 24, Ichiro was the victim of a league-high 31 GFPs that, without the superb effort of a fielder, could have resulted in a hit.

9 months ago Griffey's Butt 19 comments 1 recs |

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Selfish Ichiro, he refuses to be average even when being bad.

And out of curiosity, what is the major league average for GFPs? Would be interesting to know how many hits he “should” have.

Today I Found Out

by TIFO on Aug 28, 2011 2:03 PM PDT reply actions

Didnt know I shouldnt post it, my bad.

But they say he would be at .300 if he had only 15 GFPs against him, half of what he does have. League aver average seems to be between 15-20.

by Griffey's Butt on Aug 28, 2011 4:58 PM PDT reply actions

Yeah, it's just not fair to pay wall sites to post their entire articles, usually some quotes are fine. Also fanshots are generally just quick, small posts, good for posting links and whatnot.

On the bright side, it does look like the mods threw your post up on the front page, so that’s kinda neat. It is interesting info, and certainly a unique take on Ichiro’s “slump”, even if ultimately it is flawed (I have no idea if it is or isn’t).

by Patrick Stites on Aug 28, 2011 6:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Wow, this is pretty interesting.

Thank you.

by daveinny on Aug 28, 2011 5:28 PM PDT reply actions

Obviously can't read the whole article but....

Has no one considered what the earth quakes Japan has had could be a contributing factor?

I honestly think that has a lot to do with his slump.

by Hiccup on Aug 29, 2011 8:11 AM PDT reply actions

I considered this, but his "slump" started in May.

Ichiro hit .328 in April. It was higher than his career April batting average (Ichiro shows fairly consistent seasonal variation in his batting average).

I like using semi-colons; they make me feel smart.

by Llewdor on Aug 29, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes but batting average fluctuates wildly enough that it could have been an anomaly.

However, that fact could also mean his months since April are the anomaly, given his greater body of work.

(I’m sure you knew that so read it in the tone of a friendly reminder, and less “u r dum”.)

by Double06 on Aug 29, 2011 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions

Funny how half a world away people blow things out of proportion.

The tsunami no doubt devastated Japan, but it is akin to Katrina hitting New Orleans. The major devastation took place in an isolated area and didn’t directly effect the rest of the country. We all felt horrible for the people in New Orleans, and Ichiro obviously felt the pain for those in Japan (as evidenced by his donation), but did anyone lose sleep or have it effect their job if they had no connection from New Orleans? Doubtful.

Ichiro is not from the part of Japan that was devastated. He may know people that were directly effected, but I doubt his struggles this season are anyway correlated with the tsunami disaster.

by Wilder. on Aug 29, 2011 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I do not think this has anything to do with anything

Look at Yu Darvish, and his season thus far, for example. He’s Japanese, was born and grew up in Japan, lives in Japan, plays in the NPB, and has to deal with the effects of the tsunami in both his personal and professional lives. He’s currently having one of the best seasons of his amazing career. So, to say that the tsunami and the devastation in Japan is to blame, partially or in whole, for Ichiro having the worst year of his MLB career is a case of correlation not equaling causation.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
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by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Aug 31, 2011 12:27 PM PDT up reply actions

Darvish plays almost exclusively against other Japanese players.

This is not a good counter-argument.

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by lailaihei on Sep 1, 2011 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions

The argument was that the earthquake in Japan, and Ichiro's connection to Japan are to blame for his sub-Ichiro 2011 season

The assertion falls on it’s face more or less when you take into account that players who are actually affected by the earthquake by virtue of being in Japan currently are not necessarily having a down season. Darvish is an example using a name that everyone knows (relatively speaking). Replace him with lesser known NPB players, if it floats your boat.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 1, 2011 8:42 PM PDT up reply actions

Darvish's competition is almost completely composed of Japanese players.

Thus if the assertion were correct, all players in the NPB would be playing worse and performance of individual NPB players wouldn’t mean anything.

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by lailaihei on Sep 2, 2011 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions

They're not, however

There’s no major net negative difference in the performance of various players between the 2010 season and the current 2011 season.

"Blinding ignorance does mislead us. O! Wretched mortals, open your eyes!" Gil Hodges IS a Hall of Famer.

AA Gamethread Embiggening Record Holder- 458 posts (08/24/11)
3rd Place- 2011 AAOP Contest

by Brooklyn Dodgers Mets Fan on Sep 2, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

I think this would make sense. He's hit a ton of line drives this year that have found leather instead of grass.

by joof on Aug 29, 2011 10:18 AM PDT reply actions

A major problem with this is reporting only the counting stat.

Ichiro bats lead off, plays constantly and has low walk and strikeout rates. He puts more balls in play than almost anyone else so it’s no surprise that he would lead here in counting form.

by Matthew on Aug 29, 2011 4:21 PM PDT reply actions

this is what i was thinking

coupled with the fact that he has such a high groundball rate where fielders seem to be more likely to make a “spectacular” play ranging left or right in the hole. This fluctuation seems to just coincide with Ichiro’s style of play and position on the team.

by Nichos on Aug 29, 2011 7:46 PM PDT up reply actions