Money well spent

by BaronVonBullshit on Aug 24, 2011 2:40 PM PDT

First things first. This is not meant to be a place to rosterbate. I will not be naming any specific names that are not currently on the M's roster and neither should you. This is meant as a discussion as to what course we would like to see the team take in the offseason.

Using Cot's baseball contracts and some rough guess work on Jason Vargas and Brandon League's arbitration numbers the current roster will cost approximately $75 million next season, assuming a similar budget that probably gives Z $20 million give or take to play with this offseason. As previously stated in a few fanposts it looks like the biggest holes in the lineup right now are at 3B and C.

However I'm assuming the team will give Adam Moore another shot next year as the backup and with a good lineup a player like Miguel Olivo can be stuck down in the 7-8 spot and still be an asset. So I'm not sure the team looks to change anything there. The team also seems really high on Kyle Seager and with his recent success I see the team giving him a legit shot at the job next season, meaning they probably don't want to sink more money on a free agent or trade, unless it's a cheap veteran to use as a push for Seager and a emergency starter if he fails to impress.

So where does the team spend this cash?

Personally, unless some amazing, too good to pass up position player comes across Z's desk I'd like to see the money go into the pitching. I know, this season we've been leaning on our pitching and it seems weird that this is where the team needs help this offseason, but with Erik Bedard and Doug Fister going away I don't see the rotation as an asset next season. Jason Vargas, Blake Beavan, and Charlie Furbush don't inspire a lot of confidence in me. It's been stated that the team sees Danny Hultzen as a quick mover, so maybe we see him at some point next season, but maybe we don't. $20 million is a lot to spend on a decent front end/middle starter, so if the team goes this route there should still be some cash left over and as unpredictable as relief pitching is I would also like to see the bullpen strengthened up a bit.

I'm assuming as of now that the team will cut ties with David Aardsma this offseason, but maybe it would be in their interest to bring him back or find another talented reliever. We have lots of talented young guys, but they all seem to be incredibly inconsistent when it comes to throwing strikes and I'm sick of the soft throwing, league minimum veterans, so I'd like to see an established power pitcher to come in at the back end of the pen.

It's weird to think that I have confidence in the current Mariners' offense, but I do.... and I'd like to see what they can do over a full season.

What are your two cents?

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Fister and Bedard trades accomplished their mission

Which was to trade from our strength to improve our weakness. At least it looks as though those deals have upgraded our offense with Wells and Robinson. But at least for next season, our pitching will take a step back. I think we’ll see Pineda for a full season next year, but the same is unlikely to be true of either Paxton or Hultzen.

So a one-year deal for a “comeback” type pitcher might be in order. I would still like the team to look at spending money on a real “difference-maker” type free agent position player, or trade for one. The guys we’ve got at 3B, LF, CF and DH look like they might be league-average types next year, if we’re lucky. Which is a huge upgrade. But we could really use one more star position player on this team. If they can use money or one of our top pitching prospects to get one, they should do it.

by short on Aug 24, 2011 3:18 PM PDT reply actions

Jamie Moyer time!

by ThundaPC on Aug 24, 2011 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 13 recs

Yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes yes!

by joof on Aug 24, 2011 3:59 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

As wonderful as that would be, would he really be an upgrade over Furbush? If the team wants to throw him a million or two I'd be ecstatic, but anything more than that might be too much.

by BaronVonBullshit on Aug 24, 2011 10:44 PM PDT up reply actions

I think Moyer would be ecstatic if he gets more than a million or two from any team!

Determined, Jonesing Commentor

by Corco on Aug 25, 2011 9:34 PM PDT up reply actions

I make you green.

Fans are typically idiots.

by The Typical Idiot Fan on Aug 25, 2011 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions

They could sign Bedard

by Matthew on Aug 24, 2011 4:43 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Do it

by nemo1 on Aug 24, 2011 5:08 PM PDT up reply actions

There's a problem I have with picking up a "difference-maker" position player.

As far as the outfield goes Zduriencik has just traded for a lot of very talented young outfielders and it would seem ridiculous to pick up all those players just to spend money through free agency for through a trade for a “difference-maker” outfielder. As stated further down the 3B free agent class this year is pretty abysmal, meaning if a team was to trade for someone they would likely be overpaying. I don’t like the idea of overpaying, but this is the position on the roster I am most flexible on so if something comes along, I’ll more than likely be for it.

I’m going to go a bit more in depth on the DH because I know there are some people demanding and hell, even expecting the team to go grab Prince Fielder. I have been pretty opposed to this from the beginning and now that Carp is producing I think it would be downright silly to bring him in. Fielder’s career slash line is .282/.389/.537/.926 with an average of 37 HR a year. He is a 27 year old 275 lb man and will absolutely be bringing in a truckload of cash on a likely 5-7 year contract, I really don’t see him signing anything less than 4 years. I don’t trust aging power hitters and I don’t trust aging power hitters with a weight issue even more. Carp’s slash line right now is .305/.363/.500/.863 and he is on pace for 27 HR if he were to get the 700 PA’s a middle of the order every day player would receive, he is 25 and costs league minimum. Small sample size being taken into account Carp is showing he has the ability to hit like this, whether he can keep it up over 162 games is a different question and is where his risk comes in. Fielder would come in and more than likely produce the way he has been the past 6 years, but what happens when he turns 30 and has 3 years left on his contract? Does he continue to to mash or does he fall off the cliff and become a Vernon Wells? Is his cost worth the possible upgrade from Carp to Fielder? I’m not convinced.

I think the M’s could make a run at the division next year, but if you ask the front office I bet they will say 2012 is still going to be a rebuilding year and I don’t know if you dislodge a promising young, cheap player for a player like Fielder unless you intend on taking the division. The other possible way to get around this is put Carp in left, having Wells around as the backup, and make Robinson battle Guti for CF. This is a possibility, but you’re still shuffling league average or slightly above league average players to make room for Fielder.

By going after a cheaper above league average starting pitcher you are dislodging someone like Beavan who is league average at his ceiling and can be safely stowed in AAA if someone gets hurt. A starting pitcher will likely also leave money left over for another player or two, Fielder likely will require almost all of the money coming off the books this winter.

by BaronVonBullshit on Aug 24, 2011 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Fielder is only 27?

Holy balls.

Leader of Drew Vettleson fanclub

by Marinerfanjake on Aug 24, 2011 10:56 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

I know, I thought he was older too before I looked it up.

If we could get him on a 3 year contract I’d be less opposed, but it just seems like every big name player wants long deals… Crawford and Werth come to mind. I’m just not comfortable sinking that much money into a player with Fielder’s body type and skills once he’s over 30.

by BaronVonBullshit on Aug 24, 2011 11:03 PM PDT up reply actions

His father is 47, which is like woah to me. For some reason it just feels like he should be older.

by Patrick Stites on Aug 24, 2011 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions

Bedard seems to like Seattle

Well, except for Geoff Baker, but no one likes Geoff Baker.

But I think offering Bedard a 2-year contract wouldn’t be a bad idea.

The 3B can C class for this offseason’s free agent class is basically terrible, which probably also means that anything you get from those positions you’re likely to overpay for.

What is especially interesting to me is all the depth that you have in the OF between Seattle and Tacoma. Currently you’re looking at 7 players who have played OF and could probably compete for a MLB-roster spot in spring training. And then in AA you have 2 or 3 OF that are probably deserving of going up. So, you’re probably looking at trading a couple OF prospects for organization depth, or maybe an SP.

I think that an SP is probably the first target, because, yeah, Beavan and Furbush.

There is also an interesting starter from Japan, depending on the cost.

To be honest, I’m not opposed to playing with all these young guys in the field, and try to get some good SP.

(I still want the fat kid who is not to be named playing 1B/DH, and seeing what interest you can get for Carp or Smoak from other teams, but that isn’t realistic, so I’ll just be quiet.)

But imagine what you can do in 2013 with Ichiro’s contract off the books for the last 2 years of Felix’s contract.

Most of your positional players would be under team control.

by Henry Valz on Aug 24, 2011 8:49 PM PDT reply actions

If Ichiro rebounds next year (which I see as a real possibility) and he isn't ready to retire I would like to bring him back in '13

I wouldn’t want him to get Jeter money, but I don’t think he’ll demand that sort of contract out of the M’s. It might be a little sentimental and emotional, but I’d feel a bit betrayed if Ichiro didn’t retire with Seattle or a Japanese team.

by BaronVonBullshit on Aug 24, 2011 10:42 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Paxton will see the rotation at some point next year along with Hultzen

I could see going for a one year contract for a pitcher, but anything beyond that seems unlikely.

by dnc on Aug 24, 2011 9:11 PM PDT reply actions

This is my thought as well

We’ll have roughly one pitchers’ worth of innings from those two rookies, perhaps. But probably not neatly spread out across the season. We have Felix and Pineda and Vargas. We can get a #5 out of Beavan, Furbush, and the rest of the guys who can be easily sent down in favor of Paxton or Hultzen. So one more starter would be a very good idea. Maybe a couple of scrap-heap types hoping one pans out.

by short on Aug 24, 2011 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions

Wandy?

by stredarts on Aug 24, 2011 10:31 PM PDT up reply actions

You mean the guy that's owed $23 million over the next two seasons, with a $13 million option that becomes a player option if traded?

Houston doesn’t seem to even want to let him go to Colorado, who claimed him on waivers. He’s probably going to be too pricey to acquire for the value he’d bring, and that 2014 option is something I’d rather we don’t have to worry about.

by Patrick Stites on Aug 24, 2011 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions

Apparently they demanded Rosario or Pomeranz

by (EW) on Aug 24, 2011 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions

+ salary relief. Houston sounded crazy. Colorado was reportedly willing to take all of his salary on.

by Patrick Stites on Aug 24, 2011 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions

Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard Bedard

by seattlebruin on Aug 25, 2011 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions

No preference, just improve.

Yes, a lot of salary is coming off the books after this year, which means there will be many more options for the team in the off-season. If that means taking on salary in a trade, or finding value on the free agent market, the team will have the resources to do that. However, there are so many unknown variables that it’s not a very fruitful exercise.

Whether it’s on pitching or at some positions, this team needs talent. As long as we get talent and (talent acquired – opportunity cost) > price, I don’t care where it’s at.

"Satisfaction is the enemy of success." SanFranPreps Twitter: @d_quazzo

by perfectstrat on Aug 24, 2011 11:39 PM PDT reply actions

Call me crazy, but I dont think Olivo can cut it as an everyday catcher.

I think with addition to Moore getting a shot, I think we should let Bard play more in the event that Moore doesn’t workout. Bard has always shown the ability to hit for an acceptable average, and he’s always run a decent walk rate near 10%. I don’t care if Olivo will hit 10 more home runs than Bard, and I don’t care that Bard is old. Another thing that may turn out is it could help Olivo, he tends to start hot and then just lose all plate discipline around June right? Well maybe he’s just burning himself out, maybe his conditioning sucks. I say, let Moore, Olivo and Bard play, but don’t pencil in anyone as the “starter” until they really earn it. Of course none of them could “earn it” but its good to have 3 options.

I honestly want to see Wily Mo Pena get 400 AB’s in a season. He seems to me to be the perfect fit for DH, because I really don’t think Carp Smoak AND Wells will all work out and be ready to be Major League starters next year. Let Smoak Carp and Wells compete for LF and 1B. I’d rather see a guy who literally can hit a home run any time he makes contact even with the strikeouts. I could see him being a Branyan type player, a masher who never got a real shot. I just feel like with what I’ve seen from pena, if he got 500 AB’s or so I really think he would mash 40 home runs, I’ve never seen power like his before, and he would be cheap, and he would be fun.

by Sambearpig on Aug 25, 2011 2:42 AM PDT reply actions

I'm not sure what you consider an acceptable average, but...

2011 – .203
2010 – .214
2009 – .230
2008 – .202

2007 was the last year Bard performed well at the plate. The past couple years he has also gotten worse in BB%, K%, AVG, OBP, and SLG. And yeah, offense league wide has declined also during the same period, and he hasn’t really gotten a whole lot of PAs the past couple years, but he just does not have the track record of being the guy you pick because of his bat. 2006 & 2007 were the only years he posted a wRC+ over 100 (assuming you toss out the whole 23 PAs in 2004) and every other year he has not come close.

Bard is just the type of guy you toss in AAA to maybe call up in a super emergency, he was 4th on our catching depth chart this year after all.

by Patrick Stites on Aug 25, 2011 3:22 AM PDT up reply actions

And, it sounds like the OP was suggesting the team carry three catchers.

It’s been done before, but in situations where you had one or two of them able to fill other positions. Carrying three catchers really cuts into your depth at other positions, and limits a manager’s game-to-game flexibility.

by nathaniel dawson on Aug 25, 2011 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions