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Mariners Give Blue Jays Taste Of Their Own Socialized Medicine

This is about to be awkward

In every sport, there's always a lot of emphasis placed on a team being able to play its game. I watch a lot of hockey. I've probably mentioned this one or two times. There are several different varieties of hockey teams, but at the extremes, there are the fast, run-and-gun hockey teams that light up the scoreboard, and there are the slow, deliberate, physical hockey teams that get into defensive grudge matches. Teams can win and have won with shades of either style, but they're most successful when they play their own games. A defensive team that gets caught up in a shootout is probably going to lose. An offensive team that gets caught up playing along the boards is probably going to lose. When facing a different brand of opponent, a hockey team wants to be able to establish its own tempo early on.

And the same thing carries over to baseball. To a lesser degree, perhaps, but still to some degree. There are different kinds of baseball teams. There are baseball teams that sit back and mash. There are baseball teams that produce a lot of runs without mashing. There are baseball teams built around run prevention. All of the approaches are fine and teams have won championships with each, but generally speaking, a team will be most comfortable playing the way it was built to play. A slugging team wants to slug. A pitch-and-catch team wants to pitch and catch. Having to play another style can put a team at a disadvantage.

Most of the time. And then there are nights like tonight. Nights where a team establishes its style early on and then gets it thrown right back in its face.

The Blue Jays are a slugging team, and tonight they came out slugging. Eric Thames launched a two-run homer before there were any outs in the first. Adam Lind launched a two-run homer in the third. Brett Lawrie launched another homer in the fourth. The Blue Jays were in their comfort zone, and they were much better equipped to play this kind of game than the Mariners, who have by and large featured a punchless lineup and won their games with pitching. The Mariners sent Michael Pineda to the hill, and wanted to win with pitching once more. But the Blue Jays established the tempo.

The Mariners, though, kept up. They played the Blue Jays' game, and they played it well. They plated three runs in the second, in an inning featuring a big Trayvon Robinson double. In the third, Mike Carp blasted an opposite-field home run. And though some hits went for naught in the coming innings, in the eighth, Mike Carp and Casper Wells went back-to-back to tie things up and then put the M's in the lead.

Minutes later, Brandon League slammed the door, and the M's earned a win in a game that featured six home runs. This wasn't the kind of game we've seen the Mariners play and win often before. Before today, they'd hit at least three homers in a game just three times all year. The Blue Jays had done it 12 times. Nevertheless, the M's emerged triumphant, and to not just do it, but to do it with late-inning heroics - that was exciting. The whole thing was more exciting than any reasonable person would've expected this game to be.

The Mariners are way out of the race. It's the middle of August. A lot of times, teams in the Mariners' situation deliver uninspiring, forgettable baseball. The Mariners will surely turn in their share of uninspiring, forgettable baseball before the season winds to a close, but they've managed to string together three really great games in a row. Three games that've been treats to watch. I'm thankful for that.

Star-divide

Some bullet holes for your overzealous consumption:

  • Another game, another assortment of positives and negatives from Michael Pineda. On the plus side, Pineda missed some bats and flashed his high-90s velocity. On the down side, his location was off and his stuff just wasn't that sharp. That much is evident from the four walks and three homers in five innings. Thames homered on an inside fastball clocked at 93mph. Lind and Lawrie homered on sliders over the middle of the plate. It took everything Pineda had to get through five frames.

    An interesting trend emerges if you break Pineda's season down into groups of five starts.

    First five starts: 68% strikes
    Next five starts: 70%
    Next five starts: 67%
    Next five starts: 63%
    Next three starts: 61%

    So 23 isn't divisible by five. Regardless, it's clear that, more recently, Pineda hasn't been attacking the strike zone the way he was earlier in the year. For a while, Pineda was running one of the highest strike rates in baseball. Lately, it's been much more of a struggle.

    Which we probably should've expected, since Pineda is a 22-year-old rookie. There was no way he was going to sustain his early performance, no matter what we all wished. He's always had flaws, and those flaws have been on display more and more often.

    How much of this is Pineda's game, and how much can be attributed to fatigue? I can't answer that. At 141 innings, there's no doubt in my mind that Pineda's arm is feeling the weight of the season, but he may not be fatigued just yet. I don't know. Here's what I can say, though: these struggles are revealing issues to be addressed, and that could be a good thing in the long run, given enough work. Michael Pineda is learning a lot about himself and his situation these days. That could make for a better Michael Pineda down the road.

  • Root Sports voiceover guy's promo for tomorrow's broadcast:

    The Blue Jays sure can hit at the Rogers Centre, but here at spacious Safeco, against Mariners pitching, it should be a different story.

    That spot aired after the top of the third, by which point the Blue Jays had four runs and two homers. It aired again the next inning, after the Blue Jays hit another homer.

  • The Mariners came through with a big three-run inning in the bottom of the second, but as three-run innings go, it was unusual, and had as much to do with the Blue Jays being ineffective as with the Mariners being effective. It started when Casper Wells got hit by a 1-2 fastball. Two batters later, Trayvon Robinson drilled a long drive to left that bounced off of Eric Thames' glove. The struggling Kyle Seager then walked, setting up Jack Wilson, who punched a weak grounder through the hole by second base with a swing that makes you think you could get hits. A sac fly later and the M's had scored three baserunners who probably shouldn't have been on base.

  • Brett Lawrie pounded a home run in what was being referred to as his homecoming, since Lawrie hails from Langley, British Columbia. Much of Lawrie's family was in attendance, as Langley, British Columbia is only two hours away. On the other hand, Langley, British Columbia is two hours away. The Dictionary.com definition of "homecoming" is "a return to one's home." Brett Lawrie's home is not Seattle. This was not Brett Lawrie's homecoming. This was Brett Lawrie playing a baseball game kind of close to home.

  • I don't know why people say "it's a whole new ballgame" whenever a game gets tied. It isn't true. That would be terrible if it were true! Games would take forever!

  • The night's big hero, of course, is Mike Carp, who knocked out his fifth and sixth home runs of the season, raising his OPS to .920. The first was impressive not because of the situation, but because of the result; Carp took a 94mph fastball from a 21-year-old rookie out the other way, dropping the ball in the left field bullpen. Carp, a lefty, cleared the left field power alley that's been such death to righties.

    The second was impressive because of both the situation and the result. Carp stepped in against Trever Miller, who is a side-arming lefty. Miller quickly got ahead 0-2, but then Carp got out ahead of a low breaking ball and smashed it deep to right. Home runs against opposite-handed rookies are one thing. Home runs against same-handed specialists are another. Carp showed two very different kinds of power.

    Power. Who figured we'd be talking about Mike Carp as a power hitter two years ago? There's a lot of baseball yet to be played between now and the end of the year, but right now Mike Carp looks like he's locking himself firmly in the middle of the 2012 lineup. Carp, Dustin Ackley and Justin Smoak. That's practically a real-life core.

  • For the third game in a row, Casper Wells went yard, and he did it with another classic Casper Wells dinger swing where it looks like he's going to fly out in front of the track. Wells has now hit four home runs as a Mariner. They've all been at home, and they've all been to left field. Wells will get hurt by the Safeco dimensions - that's just the way it goes - but there are guys who get hurt a little and there are guys who get crippled, and Wells looks like a potential survivor. There's more strength in his bat than I expected, and oh my God, offense! Offense! There's offense!

  • Not to be overlooked, Dan Cortes and Tom Wilhelmsen combined to throw three scoreless, walkless innings. Cortes has now gone three consecutive appearances without issuing a walk, a streak every bit as improbable as Joe DiMaggio's, and Wilhelmsen got to pitch in a win for just the second time in his career. He even earned the actual win for his troubles, which is his first. Wilhelmsen now has as many wins as 2010 Ryan Rowland-Smith and 2010 Ian Snell combined.

Jason Vargas and Brad Mills go at it tomorrow night. Which is good, because this way I get to use my Astros jokes.

Comment 62 comments  |  5 recs  | 

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Carp

I know Carp won’t be able to keep this pace up (if he did he’d have a 57 game hitting streak by season’s end) and pitchers will eventually find some holes in his swing, but he looks like a legit MLB DH/1B to me. Hell, he looks like a better defensive 1B than Smoak so it may no longer be a given that Smoak will be 1B and Carp DH next year. In either case its hard to imagine that Carp won’t be in the opening day lineup next year unless he falls off a cliff the rest of this year.

by rsrobinson on Aug 16, 2011 5:38 AM PDT reply actions  

Mariners season thus far

Oh my god, we suck
Hey, contention!
Oh my god, we suck soooooo bad
Huh, we’re not so bad after all

by mebpenguin on Aug 16, 2011 6:06 AM PDT via mobile reply actions   1 recs

This is made the not suy parts even more enoyable!

We won’t matter, but we can watch enjoyable baseball at the end of summer! Who would have pictured that!?

by room13 on Aug 16, 2011 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wells

3 WAR in about 250 career plate appearances. Yes sss, but he looks like he could do 3-4 over a full season even with regression. The Tigers really seemed down on him this year, which is a bit surprising, considering that he’s likely better than all of their other outfielders aside from Boesch. I got the sense he got on Leyland’s bad side somehow. They seem to prefer Dirks.

by wobatus on Aug 16, 2011 6:51 AM PDT reply actions  

That's relying heavily on a 100 or so game sample of his fielding and base running.

But damn, the mouth can’t help but water when seeing a .380ish wOBA out there in left.

by SgtSasquatch on Aug 16, 2011 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Indeed

But that’s why I think he’ more like a 3-4 WAR over a full season, assuming he’s just a slightly better than average corner fielder, and that his babip will come down some, and he won’t hit a homer every game for the rest of his career.

by wobatus on Aug 17, 2011 3:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Mariner hockey

In my experience of following the NHL, it seems the puck-over-glass penalty (delay of game) is the penalty that gets scored upon most often. Sami Salo once had a puck in his own end and boomed it to clear the zone, but it went over the end glass at the other end of the ice (yes, penalty).

Anyway, the Mariners’ 17-game losing streak seemed like the Mariners’ parallel to two puck-over-glass penalties per night resulting in goals. Maybe throw in a shorthanded goal against (or two) per game as well. Or maybe allowing two goals in the span of 20 seconds every night in the opening three minutes of a home game.

Sports and Bremertonians. Because we can.

by wackomann on Aug 16, 2011 7:53 AM PDT reply actions  

It's nice Cortes is not walking guys finally

but a dude with his stuff and MiLB numbers should maybe get a K here and there. Still, can’t complain about how the kids are playing these days.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 16, 2011 7:55 AM PDT reply actions  

K is for Koward

A real man induces fly balls and dares them to leave the park. Like Jason Vargas…

by SmoakyCokey on Aug 16, 2011 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

I'd love to see Carp at DH next season

I was hoping they’d maybe spend that extra $25 million or so on Prince Fielder, but Carp is really exceeding my expectations.

by Will Lofton on Aug 16, 2011 10:30 AM PDT reply actions  

Would you rather have

4 WAR from Carp at league minimum
or
6 WAR from Fielder at $22 million?
(Not saying you’re necessarily going to get those next year. Just wondering, honestly.)

by fiftyone on Aug 16, 2011 10:59 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

For Carp to accumulate 4 wins more than a typical Mariner DH,

he’d need to be breathing. And have all his limbs.

by Paul AB on Aug 16, 2011 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Projecting Fielder as a 6 win DH is also pretty unrealistic

In Ortiz’s only 6 win season he came to the plate 670 times and had a .448wOBA and a .355BABIP. Fiftyone is asking a hypothetical question of course but its pretty out there even for a hypothtical.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 16, 2011 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

Again, not saying he will. That would be cuckoo.

But sure, let’s go that route.
.380 wOBA Carp for cheap, or .420 wOBA Fielder for Scrooge McDuckian vaults of money?

by fiftyone on Aug 16, 2011 11:48 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Definitely Carp

I don’t think either would produce that much from the DH spot, though.

by Will Lofton on Aug 16, 2011 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fish!

Mike Carp is sure better than the Angels’ heralded rookie Mike Trout. It’d be cool if he turns out as good as Tim Salmon. If we could only find the next Catfish Hunter…

"There are only two geniouses in this world: Willie Mays and William Shakespeare." -- Tallulah Bankhead (presumably not related to Scott)

by extavernmouse on Aug 16, 2011 10:53 AM PDT reply actions  

When watching Wells hit that homerun, at first I was thinking it was going to drop in front of the leftfielder.

I was stunned that it kept carrying and carrying. He’s got some impressive pop

"Tell my tale to those who ask. Tell it truly, the ill deeds along with the good and let me be judged accordingly. The rest is silence." ~ Dinobot

by beastwarking on Aug 16, 2011 11:45 AM PDT reply actions  

He also has a 30.2% line drive rate.

Also yikes, but for different reasons.

by Jon S. on Aug 16, 2011 1:27 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Yeah I was going to say that he's his LD% is higher than anyone with at least 140 AB's in baseball.

It’s important to note that’s not sustainable either, but it shows that while Carp has been a little lucky as of late he’s been stinging the ball for sure.

(Joey Votto, Todd Helton, David Ross and Nyjer Morgan are the closest to him at that list with around 27-28% and they are trotting out BABIPs between .329 (Helton) to .380 (Morgan)

by SgtSasquatch on Aug 16, 2011 1:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is something Smoak should take note of

only a 12% LD with 800 big league at bats. Discouraging

by what up HOLMES on Aug 16, 2011 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

LD% stabilizes right around 150 PA (Carp is at 144).

Which doesn’t tell us much other than that he’s been legitimately been able to barrel things up so far this year. It’s not even like a hot month is ballooning his LD%, it was 28% in June, 30% in July and 31% so far into August.

by SgtSasquatch on Aug 16, 2011 1:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's great though.

Of course he won’t keep that up, but no one expects him to bat .330 either I think. If he maintains his HR rate and walks a little both LD rate and babip can come down and he’d still be the best DH since Ibanez was forced into that role.

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 16, 2011 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, kind of looks like walks are going the wrong way during this stretch. But his MiLB/MLB resume say they should hover around 'okay'.

I’m just curious on just how big that ball looks like to Mike right now. It’s gotta be the size of Carlos Silva or something.

by SgtSasquatch on Aug 16, 2011 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah his plate discipline numbers could be better.

Man, it sure doesn’t seem like he has a 69.6 Contact%.

by stredarts on Aug 16, 2011 2:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Oh wow those are bad.

I thought maybe they’re being brought down by his first stint up but no. Last 30 days – 69%. Last 14 days – 65%!

by Bearskin Rugburn on Aug 16, 2011 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Is there a calculator out there that adjusts for BABIP

It would be interesting to see what his line would look like if his BABIP was a more reasonable .300 or so.

by mebpenguin on Aug 16, 2011 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

So I got bored and did it myself

I removed 10 hits, spread proportianally amongst the types he’s hit this year and regressed his BABIP down to .314, here are the results:
.250/.313/.402

by mebpenguin on Aug 16, 2011 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

This isn't right.

He deserves his high BABIP because of his unbelievable line drive percentage, so you can’t take away the hits that easily. He’ll hit less line drives, but those may also become home runs or ground ball singles. Carp has not been lucky, which is why his wOBAr is only slightly worse than his wOBA.

...and now I'm here

by CapSea on Aug 16, 2011 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

How differently would Carp be viewed if he hadn't had a low babip last year?

his wOBAr for the last three years in Tacoma
372
405
427

He’s gotten better every year but his 259 babip last year makes his numbers look like someone who exploded out of nowhere this year.

by Vegasexpat on Aug 16, 2011 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

His BABIP is completely reasonable for having a 30% LD%.

We’re all used to big BABIPs due to being really really lucky, but that’s not really the case here.

by algorhythm on Aug 16, 2011 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

Also, isn't .300 a relatively low BABIP?

Carp is capable of a big LD% (not 30% forever obviously but he’s not going to regress to 12% either like a certain someone). I think Carp can absolutely run a .325-.350 BABIP.

by algorhythm on Aug 16, 2011 4:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is insane given the kind of game we had.
Greg Johns
From #Mariners PR: Club used 8 rookies last night, most in 1 game since ’77 inaugural season in game prior to Sept. call-ups.

by ThundaPC on Aug 16, 2011 2:11 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

This offense has been downright average in August. And it seems like good news that the offense is getting better with players that weren't here before.

So its stands to possibly reason that a full season of Ackley, Carp, Wells could make us average offense, and that’s all I would ask of this team right now. Even if Carp can keep an OPS around .800 next year, how awesome that would be.

follow @casetines

by Kenneth Arthur on Aug 16, 2011 2:46 PM PDT reply actions  

Pretty awesome!

And maybe Smoak can come back to his first-half pre-thumb self next year as well. Or even also post an .800 OPS.

by the tourist on Aug 16, 2011 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

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